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Free Mountaineer Picks & Predictions for Today — September 14, 2026
It's a beautiful Monday at Mountaineer Park — 65°F, clear skies, and no weather excuses for missed reads. Conditions like these tend to produce honest, representative times, and that matters when you're trying to separate real form from track-aided flukes. Eight races are on tap today, and the card has more texture than you'd expect for a Monday slate.
The early portion of the card leans heavily on turf, with the first two races going over the grass. That sets up an interesting surface shift as the card moves into a run of dirt sprints and routes. Pace scenarios shift dramatically when you cross from turf to dirt, so staying sharp as the card evolves is key today.
TrackWiz has full analysis on all eight races. The first three are open to every reader — no account required. Races 4 through 8 are available to subscribers, and there's enough in the premium half of the card to make the investment worthwhile today.
3 Free Races Today at Mountaineer
Race 1
Claiming · 5 fur · Turf
A wide-open 12-horse turf sprint with multiple contenders bunched near the top of the TrackWiz ratings — the top two horses are separated by less than a point, making this a genuine pick-'em at the top.
Holly Roller tops our ratings at 85.62 and gets the 4/1 morning line in a race where the favorite figures to be Pap's Lil Patriot at 2/1 — that's a solid overlay if it holds. She carries a 10% career win rate and posts an average speed figure of 52, which is right in the mix for this turf sprint. Agustin Bracho gets the call and the outside draw on the turf shouldn't be a dealbreaker over five furlongs. When two horses are this close in our model, the one with better career win percentage at a higher price is the play.
Lighting Blue (No. 12) sits just a half-point behind Holly Roller in the ratings at 85.06 and draws the 7/2 morning line — nearly co-favoritism in this field. With an average speed of 54, she's one of the fastest horses on paper in the race, and Jordano Tunon has been a steady presence at Mountaineer. The slight ratings gap between her and our win pick makes her a logical place saver in exacta constructions.
Reign in My Heart (No. 8) rates third-best in the field at 77.24 and comes in at 5/1 on the morning line — reasonable value for a horse posting a 53 average speed and a 9% career win rate. Jose A. Leon is up for trainer Horacio Barbaran, a familiar Mountaineer combo. She rounds out a logical 2-12-8 exacta/trifecta key for those playing deeper.
Race 2
Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Turf
Royal Salute looks like a clear class standout in this starter optional claimer on the turf, but Todo Fino's eye-popping 50% career win rate makes the pace and pace-scenario questions here genuinely interesting.
Royal Salute (No. 8) is the top-rated horse in this field at 88.54 — a meaningful gap over the second-rated Misterchilliwilli at 62.07. The 2/1 morning line reflects the public's confidence, and that rating advantage is backed by the highest average speed figure in the race at 55. Erik Barbaran rides for Jay P. Bernardini, a trainer with multiple starters on today's card, suggesting a live, well-prepared outfit. At seven furlongs on turf, Royal Salute has the profile of a horse who should be able to rate off the pace and still fire.
Misterchilliwilli (No. 7) brings the best career win percentage among the main contenders at 33%, which is a number that commands respect at 5/1. His TrackWiz rating of 62.07 is a solid second in the field, and trainer Jeff Fletcher has him in the right spot here. For exotic players, he's the most logical race-threats wheel underneath Royal Salute.
Todo Fino (No. 9) is the wild card: a 50% career win rate is extraordinary and impossible to dismiss, even if his 60.31 rating trails the top two. Norberto Arroyo, Jr. gets the mount for trainer Alysha Robillard, and his 56 average speed is the best in the field. If he can dictate pace over this seven-furlong turf trip, he could outrun his 4/1 odds significantly.
Race 3
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Three horses — A Little Bit Crazy, Fiveminutsofpasion, and Loaded Once More — are clustered at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a potential three-way battle that should produce a competitive pace.
A Little Bit Crazy (No. 3) leads our model at 86.35 and goes at 7/2 — not a huge overlay but reasonable for a horse with a 20% career win rate in a field where she has a genuine ratings edge. Elijah Greenidge has the call for trainer Jami C. Poole, and an average speed of 53 is right in the mix for six furlongs on the Mountaineer dirt. The small gap between her and Fiveminutsofpasion (85.65) tells you this is close, but our model gives her the edge, and at similar odds, we lean her way.
Fiveminutsofpasion (No. 1) is no throw-out at 3/1 — a 33% career win rate is the best in this field and it's a stat that carries real weight. Bailey Weatherly rides for trainer Peter Evsich, and at 85.65 she's a point behind our top pick but well ahead of the rest of the field. She makes the most logical exacta partner and is a strong play to hit the board.
Loaded Once More (No. 7) at 2/1 is the morning-line favorite with a 79.45 rating and a 28% career win rate — she's clearly respected by the oddsmakers. Erik Barbaran takes the mount for Jay P. Bernardini, and this horse has the talent to win, though our model slots her third. If she beats either of the top two, it's likely because the pace set up perfectly for a closer, and including her in trifecta tickets is a must.
Our three free plays cover both surfaces right out of the gate. Holly Roller opens the day on the turf at 5 furlongs — a short, sharp sprint where early position and a clean break can be the whole ballgame. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's real value if the TrackWiz rating of 85.62 holds up in the running. Race 2 sends us back to the turf for 7 furlongs with Royal Salute — a morning-line favorite at 2/1 who carries an 88.54 rating, our highest-rated free pick of the day. Turf routers who can stalk and pounce on a front-runner are worth watching here. Then we hit the dirt with Race 3, where A Little Bit Crazy draws our top nod in a 6-furlong claiming sprint. Class and pace dynamics shift when you move off the turf, and this one sets up as a strong spot for a horse with the right speed figure to wire the field.
One thing to watch across all three free races: clean, dry conditions mean no built-in excuses. Every contender is working with the same fair surface today, which gives speed figures more predictive weight than you'd get on a sloppy or sealed track. Trust the numbers in spots like this.
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Monday's Mountaineer card is a clean, well-structured day of racing under ideal conditions. Royal Salute in Race 2 is our top-rated free pick and a strong starting point for the day. For the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and premium race analysis through Race 8 — subscribers have everything they need waiting on TrackWiz. Good luck at the windows today.