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Free Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — September 14, 2026

September 14, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Best bets at Mountaineer, September 14, 2026

Race 12Holly RollerML 4/17:00 PM EDT

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It's a beautiful Monday at Mountaineer Park — 65°F, clear skies, and no weather excuses for missed reads. Conditions like these tend to produce honest, representative times, and that matters when you're trying to separate real form from track-aided flukes. Eight races are on tap today, and the card has more texture than you'd expect for a Monday slate.

The early portion of the card leans heavily on turf, with the first two races going over the grass. That sets up an interesting surface shift as the card moves into a run of dirt sprints and routes. Pace scenarios shift dramatically when you cross from turf to dirt, so staying sharp as the card evolves is key today.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all eight races. The first three are open to every reader — no account required. Races 4 through 8 are available to subscribers, and there's enough in the premium half of the card to make the investment worthwhile today.

1 Free Race at Mountaineer

Race 1

7:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open 12-horse turf sprint with multiple contenders bunched near the top of the TrackWiz ratings — the top two horses are separated by less than a point, making this a genuine pick-'em at the top.

win2Holly RollerML 4/1

Holly Roller tops our ratings at 85.62 and gets the 4/1 morning line in a race where the favorite figures to be Pap's Lil Patriot at 2/1 — that's a solid overlay if it holds. She carries a 10% career win rate and posts an average speed figure of 52, which is right in the mix for this turf sprint. Agustin Bracho gets the call and the outside draw on the turf shouldn't be a dealbreaker over five furlongs. When two horses are this close in our model, the one with better career win percentage at a higher price is the play.

place12Lighting BlueML 7/2

Lighting Blue (No. 12) sits just a half-point behind Holly Roller in the ratings at 85.06 and draws the 7/2 morning line — nearly co-favoritism in this field. With an average speed of 54, she's one of the fastest horses on paper in the race, and Jordano Tunon has been a steady presence at Mountaineer. The slight ratings gap between her and our win pick makes her a logical place saver in exacta constructions.

show8Reign in My HeartML 5/1

Reign in My Heart (No. 8) rates third-best in the field at 77.24 and comes in at 5/1 on the morning line — reasonable value for a horse posting a 53 average speed and a 9% career win rate. Jose A. Leon is up for trainer Horacio Barbaran, a familiar Mountaineer combo. She rounds out a logical 2-12-8 exacta/trifecta key for those playing deeper.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:25 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

Royal Salute looks like a clear class standout in this starter optional claimer on the turf, but Todo Fino's eye-popping 50% career win rate makes the pace and pace-scenario questions here genuinely interesting.

win8Royal SaluteML 2/1

Royal Salute (No. 8) is the top-rated horse in this field at 88.54 — a meaningful gap over the second-rated Misterchilliwilli at 62.07. The 2/1 morning line reflects the public's confidence, and that rating advantage is backed by the highest average speed figure in the race at 55. Erik Barbaran rides for Jay P. Bernardini, a trainer with multiple starters on today's card, suggesting a live, well-prepared outfit. At seven furlongs on turf, Royal Salute has the profile of a horse who should be able to rate off the pace and still fire.

place7MisterchilliwilliML 5/1

Misterchilliwilli (No. 7) brings the best career win percentage among the main contenders at 33%, which is a number that commands respect at 5/1. His TrackWiz rating of 62.07 is a solid second in the field, and trainer Jeff Fletcher has him in the right spot here. For exotic players, he's the most logical race-threats wheel underneath Royal Salute.

show9Todo FinoML 4/1

Todo Fino (No. 9) is the wild card: a 50% career win rate is extraordinary and impossible to dismiss, even if his 60.31 rating trails the top two. Norberto Arroyo, Jr. gets the mount for trainer Alysha Robillard, and his 56 average speed is the best in the field. If he can dictate pace over this seven-furlong turf trip, he could outrun his 4/1 odds significantly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Our three free plays cover both surfaces right out of the gate. Holly Roller opens the day on the turf at 5 furlongs — a short, sharp sprint where early position and a clean break can be the whole ballgame. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's real value if the TrackWiz rating of 85.62 holds up in the running. Race 2 sends us back to the turf for 7 furlongs with Royal Salute — a morning-line favorite at 2/1 who carries an 88.54 rating, our highest-rated free pick of the day. Turf routers who can stalk and pounce on a front-runner are worth watching here. Then we hit the dirt with Race 3, where A Little Bit Crazy draws our top nod in a 6-furlong claiming sprint. Class and pace dynamics shift when you move off the turf, and this one sets up as a strong spot for a horse with the right speed figure to wire the field.

One thing to watch across all three free races: clean, dry conditions mean no built-in excuses. Every contender is working with the same fair surface today, which gives speed figures more predictive weight than you'd get on a sloppy or sealed track. Trust the numbers in spots like this.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Three horses — A Little Bit Crazy, Fiveminutsofpasion, and Loaded Once More — are clustered at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a potential three-way battle that should produce a competitive pace.

win3A Little Bit CrazyML 7/2

A Little Bit Crazy (No. 3) leads our model at 86.35 and goes at 7/2 — not a huge overlay but reasonable for a horse with a 20% career win rate in a field where she has a genuine ratings edge. Elijah Greenidge has the call for trainer Jami C. Poole, and an average speed of 53 is right in the mix for six furlongs on the Mountaineer dirt. The small gap between her and Fiveminutsofpasion (85.65) tells you this is close, but our model gives her the edge, and at similar odds, we lean her way.

place1FiveminutsofpasionML 3/1

Fiveminutsofpasion (No. 1) is no throw-out at 3/1 — a 33% career win rate is the best in this field and it's a stat that carries real weight. Bailey Weatherly rides for trainer Peter Evsich, and at 85.65 she's a point behind our top pick but well ahead of the rest of the field. She makes the most logical exacta partner and is a strong play to hit the board.

show7Loaded Once MoreML 2/1

Loaded Once More (No. 7) at 2/1 is the morning-line favorite with a 79.45 rating and a 28% career win rate — she's clearly respected by the oddsmakers. Erik Barbaran takes the mount for Jay P. Bernardini, and this horse has the talent to win, though our model slots her third. If she beats either of the top two, it's likely because the pace set up perfectly for a closer, and including her in trifecta tickets is a must.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

8:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

New York New York stands out as the clear class figure in this six-furlong dirt claimer, posting the highest TrackWiz rating in the field by a significant margin — but Joker Went Wild's top average speed of 55 means the pace question isn't trivial.

win3New York New YorkML 2/1

New York New York (No. 3) posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the race and well clear of second-best Lucho at 65.66. The 2/1 morning line reflects a deserved favorite's role, and a 14% career win rate, combined with a 54 average speed, gives her solid credentials in this spot. Charle Oliveros rides for the Juan Pablo Silva barn, which is well-represented throughout today's card. When a horse has this kind of ratings separation over a field, the model is telling you something.

place1LuchoML 7/2

Lucho (No. 1) posts a 65.66 rating and the second-best mark in the field, with a solid 20% career win rate that suggests he runs competitively more often than not. Luis Alberto Batista gets the call for Juan Carlos Gotera, and at 7/2 morning line, there's a case to be made he's undervalued given the depth of this field beyond the favorite. He's your most logical place horse if New York New York gets the job done on top.

show5Joker Went WildML 3/1

Joker Went Wild (No. 5) is intriguing — his average speed of 55 is the top figure in the field, and a 62.77 rating puts him third. The 3/1 morning line means there's not a ton of overlay here, but he's a legit threat to hit the board if his raw speed translates. Juan Pablo Silva, Jr. rides, giving the Silva barn a one-two punch in this race.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

8:40 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where every horse is still looking for that first win — the TrackWiz ratings separate three horses from the rest, and it's a genuine 1-2-7 scenario at the top.

win1Veri CollectedML 7/2

Veri Collected (No. 1) leads this maiden field with an 86.35 rating and draws the 7/2 morning line — solid value when you consider she has the top mark in the race. Erik Barbaran is up for trainer Jay P. Bernardini, one of the most active outfits at Mountaineer today, with multiple starters on the card. Her average speed of 53 is competitive for this five-and-a-half furlong trip, and getting the rail in a short maiden sprint isn't necessarily a negative. In a field where every horse is looking for win number one, having the top model rating matters.

place2Tiz a HeroML 3/1

Tiz a Hero (No. 2) rates just behind at 84.25 and posts a slightly better average speed of 54, making her the most dangerous horse underneath Veri Collected. Charle Oliveros gets the call for Juan Pablo Silva — again, a recognizable Mountaineer partnership. The 3/1 morning line puts her close to even money territory by post, and she's the most logical backup in exactas.

show7Rosie Ann RulesML 2/1

Rosie Ann Rules (No. 7) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 despite rating third in our model at 83.68 — the public clearly likes her, and the Silva barn sending out Juan Pablo Silva, Jr. signals confidence. Her average speed of 52 is a tick below the top two, but the margin is small, and in a first-out maiden field, she's absolutely worth including in trifecta coverage.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

9:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Scream Machine and Flight Control emerge as the top two by a comfortable margin in this short four-and-a-half furlong dirt sprint, and the Eddie Clouston barn has the one-two punch to make life difficult for everyone else.

win4Scream MachineML 3/1

Scream Machine (No. 4) leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and brings a 31% career win rate — the best in the race by a significant margin. Luis Alberto Batista gets the mount, and she's trained by Eddie Clouston, who also sends out Scoot Along — a sign this barn is taking this race seriously with multiple arrows. At 3/1, she's not a huge overlay, but her combination of high rating and elite win percentage makes her the most trustworthy play on the ticket.

place2Flight ControlML 5/2

Flight Control (No. 2) rates second in the field at 82.59 and carries a 27% career win rate — another strong strike-rate number. Jose A. Leon rides for Juan Pablo Silva, and at 5/2 she's technically the morning-line favorite. The TrackWiz model gives a slight edge to Scream Machine, but these two are close enough that a quinella or exacta box is a reasonable play in this short sprint.

show1Scoot AlongML 9/2

Scoot Along (No. 1) at 9/2 rates third with a 57.57 score and a 17% career win rate — she's the other half of the Clouston stable entry and brings a 53 average speed. Luis Negron takes the mount, and in a short sprint where early position matters, having a trainer who knows exactly how to spot his horses (two in the same race) is an angle worth respecting. She rounds out the trifecta and is a solid show ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

9:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Runningforjoy is a significant class standout going a mile on the dirt, with a ratings gap that suggests this could be a lone-figure type of race — the intrigue is whether Semper Anticus or El Guty can take advantage if the pace gets hot early.

win5RunningforjoyML 2/1

Runningforjoy (No. 5) posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this six-horse field and a full 14 points clear of second-best Semper Anticus. His 18% career win rate is solid, and a 54 average speed is the top mark in the field. Erik Barbaran gets the call for trainer Leland Hayes, and at 2/1, this is a case where the favorite is also the value play — the model strongly supports him. A one-mile dirt race often rewards horses with the most raw ability when the pace is honest, and this is the right spot for Runningforjoy.

place4Semper AnticusML 9/2

Semper Anticus (No. 4) rates a clear second in the field at 74.63 and posts the top career win percentage among the contenders at 21%. Ricardo Barrios rides for Juan Pablo Silva, giving the barn another live runner on the card. He's drawn into the four hole, which is workable over a mile, and at 9/2, he represents legitimate place value if Runningforjoy handles favorites' business.

show3El GutyML 10/1

El Guty (No. 3) is worth a look at 10/1 morning line for exotic players — his 57.14 rating puts him third in the field, and Brandon Tapara knows the Mountaineer strip well. The Jay P. Bernardini barn is active today with multiple starters, and while El Guty isn't winning this on paper, a 14% career win rate in a six-horse field with a generous price makes him a trifecta piece worth including.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

9:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Big Effect has a clear ratings advantage in this closing four-and-a-half furlong dirt sprint, but Courthouse Cove and Jack Bob and Larry make this a competitive card-closer with legitimate exacta and trifecta possibilities.

win7Big EffectML 2/1

Big Effect (No. 7) tops the field at 88.54 — the same ceiling rating we've seen in a few top horses today — and backs it up with a 24% career win rate and a 54 average speed. Jose A. Leon rides for Juan Pablo Silva, one of the most active trainers on today's Mountaineer card. At 2/1 morning line in a sprint, Big Effect has the profile of a horse who can clear the field early and hold. The combination of top rating, double-digit win rate, and a strong jockey-trainer combination makes this one of the stronger top plays on the card.

place1Courthouse CoveML 3/1

Courthouse Cove (No. 1) rates second in the field at 77.92 and brings a 15% career win rate with a 53 average speed. Michael Y. Pagan rides for the Juan Pablo Silva barn — giving Silva yet another entry, this time a one-two of sorts with Big Effect. At 3/1, Courthouse Cove is nearly co-favorited with the pace scenario working in his favor from the rail in a short sprint. He's a solid place play and logical exacta partner.

show4Jack Bob and LarryML 7/2

Jack Bob and Larry (No. 4) slots in third on our ratings at 67.64 and posts a 54 average speed — matching Big Effect's top figure in the field. Charle Oliveros gets the call for trainer Sara Stanoszek, and a 17% career win rate shows he hits the board often enough to be relevant. At 7/2 morning line, he's a fair price for the show position and rounds out a logical trifecta underneath the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Monday's Mountaineer card is a clean, well-structured day of racing under ideal conditions. Royal Salute in Race 2 is our top-rated free pick and a strong starting point for the day. For the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and premium race analysis through Race 8 — subscribers have everything they need waiting on TrackWiz. Good luck at the windows today.

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