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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — September 13, 2026

September 13, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Rain is falling at Mountaineer today, with temps sitting around 74°F and a wet track that's going to shape this entire card. Eight races are on the slate, and the weather isn't just a footnote — it's one of the biggest factors in how you approach your tickets today.

The early races are scheduled for turf, and that's where things get interesting. A soaked turf course can play very differently than a fast one, compressing speed figures and opening the door for closers who might get overlooked in the morning line. Keep that in mind as you scroll through the picks.

We've got three free races to get you started — all turf sprints and routes — plus five premium races on the dirt side of the card where our deepest analysis lives. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open 12-horse turf sprint where the top TrackWiz ratings are separated by just two points — this one could come down to pace scenario and post position luck.

win9Forever ValiantML 8/1

Forever Valiant tops our ratings at 75.75 despite being listed at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful disconnect we're ready to exploit. The 11% career win rate doesn't jump off the page, but our model sees something the oddsmakers are undervaluing here. Trainer Jason Uelmen puts Ricardo Barrios in the irons, a combination worth watching on this five-furlong turf layout. At those odds in a race this deep, Forever Valiant represents genuine value.

place8My BalboaML 5/1

My Balboa sits just a whisker below the top rating at 75.46, and Kevin Gonzalez is a jockey who knows how to rate a horse on the turf. That 20% career win rate is one of the stronger marks in this field, and an average speed figure of 56 is tops among all 12 runners — pure raw pace advantage. At 5/1, trainer Jennifer A. Johnson's runner looks like a solid place investment.

show1Doom LoopML 12/1

Doom Loop at 12/1 is the kind of overlaid horse that pays handsomely in exotics. An 18% career win rate is legitimately solid for this level, and a TrackWiz rating of 73.96 puts Doom Loop squarely in the conversation for hitting the board. Trainer Eddie Clouston and jockey Deshawn L. Parker are a stable combination, and we'll use Doom Loop confidently in trifectas.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

Small Field lands at 2/1 as the clear morning-line favorite in a sprawling 14-horse turf route, but El Ondeado's rating is nearly identical — making this a two-horse battle with a crowded supporting cast.

win8Small FieldML 2/1

Small Field owns the top TrackWiz rating in this race at 84.56 and carries a 22% career win percentage — one of the highest strike rates in the entire field. Trainer Shane Meyers sends Alexander Chavez out on a runner who shows consistent form at this 7-furlong turf distance. The 2/1 morning line reflects deserved favoritism, and our model fully backs it up.

place1El OndeadoML 5/1

El Ondeado is breathing down Small Field's neck with an 84.17 rating and a 16% career win rate that plays well at this level. Kevin Gonzalez takes the mount for trainer Denis Cluley, and at 5/1 the morning line offers fair value for a horse that ranks second in our ratings by just a fraction. On a turf route where pace can get complicated, expect El Ondeado to be right there late.

show2Bring Me a CheckML 7/1

Bring Me a Check carries a 78.86 rating — third best in the field — and that 17% career win rate is nothing to dismiss in a race this wide. Trainer Juan Raul Aguirre puts Luis Tapara up, and at 7/1, this runner gives you a legitimate shot at board money with meaningful exotic value. In a field this size, having a third solid rating anchor is smart handicapping.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

The morning-line favorite Positive Carry is beatable here — our model rates Super Engreida nearly 21 points higher at 73.96, setting up a juicy upset scenario on the turf mile.

win2Super EngreidaML 12/1

Super Engreida is our top-rated horse in Race 3 at 73.96, yet the morning line has this runner at 12/1 — one of the biggest rating-to-odds gaps on today's card. Trainer Horacio Barbaran sends out jockey Erik Barbaran (a family connection worth noting) on a horse who shows an 18% career win rate, well above average for this field. The turf mile setup suits a horse with pace-to-spare, and if Super Engreida fires at anywhere near this price, it's a significant overlay play.

place5Shez TwistedML 4/1

Shez Twisted rates at 68.22 and brings an 11% career win percentage to a mile turf route where Francisco Garcia handles the riding duties for trainer Carlos A. Lopez. At 4/1, the morning line is reasonable, and that average speed figure of 54 ties for best among the contenders we're focused on. Shez Twisted profiles as a stalker who can pick up pieces when the pace gets honest.

show8QuinceML 3/1

Quince at 3/1 brings that 20% career win rate — highest among any horse in this field — which tells you this runner knows how to finish the job. Trainer Juan C. Vazquez and jockey Luis Negron are a familiar Mountaineer pairing. A TrackWiz rating of 67.05 slots Quince solidly in third, and including this horse in trifectas at near-even-money makes sense.

The first three races on today's card give us a nice cross-section of what a wet Mountaineer turf day looks like. Forever Valiant opens the card at 8/1 morning line in a 5-furlong turf sprint — a price that looks generous given our TrackWiz rating of 75.75 in a field we think is beatable. Race 2 brings Small Field in at 2/1 over 7 furlongs, and that shorter-priced favorite actually earns it with an 84.56 rating that stands out from the rest of the field. The marquee free-race angle, though, is Race 3 — Super Engreida at 12/1 in a 1-mile turf route. A double-digit morning line on a horse with a 73.96 TrackWiz rating in a soft-track scenario worth exploring? That's exactly the kind of overlay we love flagging.

One theme to watch across all three turf races: if the course gets labeled "yielding" or "soft" by post time, pace pressure early will be punished. Horses that can rate off the pace and finish strong tend to have a major edge in these conditions. Keep that bias in your back pocket.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Lil Breezzy dominates the ratings in this dirt sprint and stands out as a clear class edge — the question is whether the morning line at 3/1 still leaves enough value on the table.

win6Lil BreezzyML 3/1

Lil Breezzy posts the highest TrackWiz rating in Race 4 at 87.08, a substantial gap over the second-ranked horse. Trainer Eddie Clouston puts Luis Negron in the irons — a combination that carries real credibility at Mountaineer — and a 17% career win rate over a career sample is respectable for a claiming runner at this level. At 3/1, the price isn't a steal, but when a horse separates itself this cleanly on ratings, you back it.

place5Reya SunshineML 5/1

Reya Sunshine checks in with a 74.65 rating and a 21% career win percentage — one of the stronger win rates in the field — piloted by Juan Pablo Silva, Jr. for trainer Juan Pablo Silva (a trainer-jockey family tandem). The 5/1 morning line represents fair value for a horse who shows both speed and a track record of winning. She's the natural place play underneath Lil Breezzy.

show9I'm On EdgeML 2/1

I'm On Edge is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 but our model has it third in the ratings at 63.45 — a bit of a warning sign that bettors may be overestimating this one. That said, a 15% career win rate and Charle Oliveros in the saddle for trainer Juan Pablo Silva keeps the horse in the picture. We're happy to use I'm On Edge as a show hedge while taking better value elsewhere.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Red Drapes owns the top rating by a wide margin in this six-furlong dirt sprint, but Dream Leader's 2/1 morning line signals the public may not agree — a pace duel between these two could set up nicely for the closers.

win7Red DrapesML 3/1

Red Drapes tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 in a field where no other horse cracks 80 — that's a commanding edge heading into this six-furlong dirt sprint. Brandon Tapara gets the call for trainer Jay P. Bernardini, and while the 8% career win rate is modest, our model's confidence in this runner's form cycle is high. At 3/1, Red Drapes is the value play among the top contenders, and we're making this our Race 5 win selection without hesitation.

place9MazarnML 5/1

Mazarn sits second in ratings at 76.15 and shows a top average speed figure of 53 in this field, with Bailey Weatherly aboard for trainer John T. Brown. A 5% career win rate is low, but speed figures suggest this runner has shown flashes that justify a place investment. At 5/1, Mazarn fits perfectly as the exacta companion to Red Drapes.

show5Dream LeaderML 2/1

Dream Leader at 2/1 is the public's choice but rates only third in our model at 63.59 — that's a red flag for win bettors but still earns a show slot. Norberto Arroyo, Jr. is a capable jockey, and trainer Marion L. Cuttino knows how to place horses. We'd rather use Dream Leader for show and exotics than bet it to win at a short price that our ratings don't fully support.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on dirt with a small, manageable six-horse field — Finn d'Oro leads on ratings, but Crime Lord's morning line makes this a genuine two-horse battle worth keying both ways.

win1Finn d'OroML 5/2

Finn d'Oro tops this maiden field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark of any horse across the first six races today. Bailey Weatherly takes the mount for trainer Robert S. Scallan, a combination that carries solid Mountaineer credibility. In a six-horse maiden field, this kind of ratings dominance is significant, and the 5/2 morning line is fair enough that the value is still real. We're confident Finn d'Oro is the right top selection here.

place3Crime LordML 2/1

Crime Lord is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and earns a TrackWiz rating of 80.56 — second best in the race by a clear margin. Charle Oliveros handles the riding duties for trainer Juan Pablo Silva, and that 53 average speed figure is best in this field. The case for Crime Lord is straightforward: strong rating, best raw speed, and a jockey-trainer team with a winning track record at this oval.

show2Clare's CauseML 9/2

Clare's Cause at 9/2 slots in third at 54.17 on our ratings — a healthy step below the top two, but in a six-horse field, the show spot is attainable. Kevin Gonzalez rides for trainer Crystal Richison, and a 52 average speed figure keeps this runner competitive. In maiden races, form can be unpredictable, and Clare's Cause gives you a real third option to round out trifecta tickets.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Beautriz stands out as the class of this allowance optional claiming field with a 33% career win rate that towers over the competition — but Shuler Gray at 5/2 makes this an interesting two-horse showdown.

win6BeautrizML 3/1

Beautriz commands the top TrackWiz rating in Race 7 at 87.08 and brings a 33% career win percentage — by far the highest in this seven-horse allowance field and one of the most impressive marks on today's card. Erik Barbaran gets the mount for trainer J. Michael Baird, and this runner's pace profile at six furlongs on dirt lines up perfectly with today's conditions. At 3/1, Beautriz is both the top selection and one of the better-priced horses on the card given that win rate.

place7Shuler GrayML 5/2

Shuler Gray rates at 79.1 with a 20% career win rate and gets Kevin Gonzalez in the irons for trainer John R. Shuler — an owner-trainer connection that often signals added motivation. At 5/2, the morning line puts Shuler Gray as co-favorite, and our model backs that ranking as the clear second choice in the field. This is a natural exacta partner to Beautriz in both directions.

show4Butterfly EffectML 9/2

Butterfly Effect sits third in our ratings at 57.8, with Deshawn L. Parker riding for trainer Kent Knudsen. That 8% career win rate is modest, but an average speed figure of 54 is solid and the 9/2 morning line offers legitimate value for exotic plays. In an allowance optional claiming race, Butterfly Effect's form is consistent enough to hit the board if the top two have any trouble.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Kick Startness enters Race 8 as both the morning-line favorite and the clear ratings leader in a ten-horse dirt mile — but My Two Aunt Joans at 4/1 gives the deep players a live alternative worth keying in exotics.

win4Kick StartnessML 2/1

Kick Startness earns the highest TrackWiz rating on the entire card at 88.54 — a dominant number in a ten-horse field — and a 25% career win rate backs it up with hard evidence. Luis Alberto Batista takes the mount for trainer Eddie Clouston, and that stable has already shown up well on today's card. At 2/1, the favorite price is deserved, and when the model and the morning line both point the same direction this clearly, we don't fight it.

place8My Two Aunt JoansML 4/1

My Two Aunt Joans rates at 76.15 with an 18% career win percentage, giving Kick Startness a legitimate challenge for the place slot in this dirt mile. Luis Tapara rides for trainer Alysha Robillard, and the 4/1 morning line reflects a horse that the field respects. The average speed figure of 52 is right in the pack, so My Two Aunt Joans will need to run a strong tactical race — but the rating says this horse is capable.

show2Roundball RockML 10/1

Roundball Rock comes in as our show selection at 10/1 morning line with a 56.74 rating — technically third in our model for this race. Charle Oliveros rides for trainer Oscar Romero, and an 11% career win rate is workmanlike but consistent. At double-digit morning-line odds, Roundball Rock is the kind of horse that fills out trifecta tickets nicely without breaking the bank — a smart inclusion if you're playing deeper exotics.

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Bottom line for today at Mountaineer: the rain is your wildcard, the turf is your opportunity, and the dirt card is where the serious money decisions live. Our free best bets — Forever Valiant, Small Field, and longshot angle Super Engreida — are a solid starting point, but the full-card picture is richer than that. Subscribers get everything: pace projections, exotic tickets, and race-by-race breakdowns on all eight. Head to /pricing to unlock the complete analysis before first post.

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