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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — September 7, 2026

September 7, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Best bets at Mountaineer, September 7, 2026

Race 13Crafty LawyerML 4/17:00 PM EDT

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Labor Day weekend winds down at Mountaineer Park, but the racing is just heating up. Eight races are on the board for Monday, September 7, and Mother Nature is doing her part — clear skies and a crisp 74°F make for ideal conditions on both the turf and the main track.

Today's card is a nice mix of surfaces and race types, with the first three races playing out on the turf before the card shifts to the Mountaineer dirt. Maiden Special Weights, a pair of Starter Allowances, two Claiming races, and a straight Allowance give handicappers plenty of angles to work with from top to bottom.

Three races are on the house today — free analysis available to every TrackWiz reader — while five premium races round out the full card for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf with 14 first-time starters and a massive spread in TrackWiz ratings — someone is going to emerge here, but separating contenders from the chaos is the challenge.

win3Crafty LawyerML 4/1

Crafty Lawyer tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 in this maiden field, which is a significant edge when everyone is unproven. Luis Alberto Batista gets the call from the saddle, and at 4/1 on the morning line, the market is already respecting this one. On a turf sprint where tactical position matters, landing the top-rated horse at a fair price is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis targets. Trainer Eddie Clouston gets a live-looking runner at a manageable price — this is your best bet in the race.

place13Lilys BackML 5/1

Lilys Back carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 70.33 and is co-favorited at 5/1 alongside Cantora — solid market support for a maiden on turf. Trainer Victor M. Espinosa sends out Michael Y. Pagan, and with an average speed figure of 52, there's enough raw material here to hit the board. If Crafty Lawyer gets loose on the front end, Lilys Back could be the one closing into a place or show spot.

show1Pigeon CayML 12/1

Pigeon Cay is an intriguing show play at 12/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 65.85 — third-best in the field. Ricardo Barrios is a capable handler, and drawing post 1 on the turf gives a patient rider options to find a favorable trip along the rail. At those morning-line odds, Pigeon Cay offers real value in exacta and trifecta boxes if you're playing the exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:25 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

Ghostly Girl looks like a clear class standout in this starter allowance on the turf mile, but Tuenda and Unstable Mabel bring enough firepower to keep things honest.

win4Ghostly GirlML 2/1

Ghostly Girl owns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54 — a substantial gap over the second horse — and comes in at 2/1 on the morning line, suggesting the tote board will back up what our model is saying. Trainer Juan C. Vazquez is a name to know at Mountaineer, and Luis Negron is a sharp pilot for a one-mile turf route where positioning is everything. The 10% career win rate looks modest at a glance, but in starter allowance company, a horse with this rating profile is consistently doing something right.

place2TuendaML 4/1

Tuenda rates second in the field at 75.19 with a 19% career win rate — that's a legitimate résumé for this level. Luis Alberto Batista takes the mount for trainer Hugo Andrade at a fair 4/1 morning line price. If Ghostly Girl runs to her rating, Tuenda looks like the most reliable underneath horse in the race for place and exacta bettors.

show3Unstable MabelML 7/1

Unstable Mabel is the most eye-catching number in the field at 50% career wins — yes, that's not a typo. The sample size may be small, but that kind of hit rate doesn't happen by accident. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini sends her out at 7/1, which looks like potential overlay territory given her win consistency. She's a natural show play and an intriguing exacta partner if you're willing to shade against the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Our free picks center around the early turf strip, and today's grass looks like it's going to play fast in the afternoon sun. Race 1 kicks things off with Crafty Lawyer drawing our attention in a 7-furlong Maiden Special Weight — posted at 4/1 on the morning line with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating, there's genuine value to unpack there. Race 2 brings Ghostly Girl into a Starter Allowance going a flat mile, and she grades out as the top-rated horse on the entire free portion of the card at 88.54. Keep an eye on her.

The wild card in the free tier is Race 3, where Ante Antman opens at a juicy 12/1 in a one-mile turf Allowance. That morning line screams longshot, but our rating of 73.96 suggests the field is more bunched than the odds imply. Wide-open races like this one are exactly where TrackWiz analysis earns its keep.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The morning-line favorite Carnival Rock doesn't match the TrackWiz ratings of several horses priced much higher — this looks like a race where the value is hiding in the middle of the program.

win5Ante AntmanML 12/1

Ante Antman is our top pick at 12/1 on the morning line despite owning the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 73.96 — that's the kind of overlay that gets handicappers excited. A 28% career win rate is genuinely impressive at any level, and trainer Denis Cluley has this horse ready to run. Kevin Gonzalez takes the mount in a one-mile turf allowance where horses with legitimate tactical speed can control their own destiny. The market is underestimating this one, and TrackWiz analysis says that's a mistake.

place8Z DancerML 4/1

Z Dancer rates a close second at 73.23 and goes with Michael Y. Pagan for trainer Juan C. Vazquez, who is already represented in this race with Sonny the Great — Vazquez clearly likes his chances in this spot. The 4/1 morning line is reasonable, and an average speed figure of 54 ties for the top mark in the field alongside Carnival Rock and Westhampton. Z Dancer is a logical place horse and a key underneath play in exactas.

show4Carnival RockML 2/1

Carnival Rock checks in as the 2/1 morning-line choice and carries a 20% career win rate with a top-tier speed figure of 54, so it's not like this horse is unqualified. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the assignment for trainer Ivan Calderon, and the early pace pressure could set things up nicely for Carnival Rock to be on or near the lead. Fading this horse entirely in exotics would be a mistake — the show slot is a comfortable landing spot for a horse the market clearly respects.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 4

8:15 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

First-time starters on the dirt sprint with several horses showing no recorded speed figures — this is a true maiden puzzle where TrackWiz ratings and morning-line signals are doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

win8Passionate AngerML 2/1

Passionate Anger is the 2/1 morning-line choice and tops our TrackWiz ratings for this race at 58.33 — the market and our model are aligned on the selection. Bailey Weatherly gets the mount for trainer Eric R. Reed, who also sends out Lucky Lorsie in this same race, demonstrating barn confidence in the division. In a maiden dirt sprint with no established speed figures for several horses, going with the top-rated runner at the fair-odds favorite price is the sensible play.

place1Saratoga IslandML 3/1

Saratoga Island posts a solid TrackWiz rating of 56.67 and lands the rail post for Luis Negron under trainer James K. Chapman. There's no recorded average speed figure, which means this is a first-time starter with WorkTab support and no public record — exactly the kind of horse that can sneak onto the board. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price reflects real respect from the morning-line maker.

show5Cairo MiaML 5/1

Cairo Mia rates third in this field at 53.33 and does have a recorded average speed figure of 47 — not flashy, but at least it's a data point in a field full of unknowns. Jason Simpson rides for trainer Nestor R. Rivera at 5/1, which offers some show value in a wide-open maiden field. In exotic tickets, Cairo Mia rounds out a logical trifecta combination with the top two selections.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

8:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Align stands out as a dominant TrackWiz-rated horse in a six-furlong claiming field, but Ninety Two's 28% career win rate and sharp speed figures make for a compelling secondary angle.

win8AlignML 2/1

Align is the best horse in this race on TrackWiz ratings — an 88.54 score is well clear of the field — and comes in at 2/1 as the morning-line choice. Brandon Tapara rides for trainer Jay P. Bernardini, who also enters Secret Bagent Man in the race, and the stable has clearly identified Align as the live one. A 10% career win rate might look modest, but the average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the top horses in this claiming field. If this one fires, it could be a wire-to-wire job.

place5Ninety TwoML 3/1

Ninety Two brings the second-best TrackWiz rating at 71.95 and backs it up with a standout 28% career win rate — that's genuine class in a claiming field. Bailey Weatherly takes the mount for John T. Brown at 3/1 on the morning line, and the horse's average speed of 53 matches Align stride for stride. If Align shows any sign of vulnerability, Ninety Two is in prime position to pick up the place check.

show4Law of the JungleML 5/1

Law of the Jungle checks in at 5/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 57.98 and a 17% career win rate — solid credentials in claiming company. Jefferson Skerrett gets the call for trainer Ivan Calderon, and the horse's average speed of 52 suggests it can run close enough to the pace to finish in the money. As a show play or the third leg of a trifecta, Law of the Jungle offers fair value at the projected morning-line price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

9:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tight three-horse cluster sits atop the TrackWiz ratings in this claiming sprint, but Joe Phillips — despite a modest win percentage — rates as the narrow leader and is priced at a reasonable 7/2.

win7Joe PhillipsML 7/2

Joe Phillips tops this field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 and goes to post at 7/2 — not a screaming overlay, but legitimate value for the top-rated horse in the race. Jose A. Leon handles the mount for trainer Juan Pablo Silva, and the average speed figure of 53 puts this horse right in the sweet spot for a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint. The 7% career win rate is on the lower side, but rating models can reflect ability that doesn't always show up in raw win numbers, especially in claiming ranks.

place1Crafty ConquestML 9/2

Crafty Conquest is a legitimate contender at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 79.73 and a 16% career win rate — a horse that consistently finds the board. Norberto Arroyo Jr. is in the irons for Darren Heinrich, who also saddles Orb of the Boro in this field, and Crafty Conquest appears to be the stable's top hope. An average speed of 52 in a sprint field suggests this one runs a reliable, competitive race every time out.

show4Orb of the BoroML 5/2

Orb of the Boro rates third in this field at 63.47 and sports the highest average speed figure in the race at 54 — raw speed is never a liability in a claiming sprint. Kevin Gonzalez gets the call for trainer Darren Heinrich at 5/2 on the morning line, making this the shortest price in our top three despite the third-best overall rating. The speed figure edge makes Orb of the Boro a logical show play and a natural exotic partner with Joe Phillips.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

9:30 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses — Abundant Energy and Zen Nation — both carry 57% career win rates and dominate the TrackWiz ratings, setting up what could be a riveting stretch duel in this starter allowance sprint.

win1Abundant EnergyML 5/2

Abundant Energy leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and shares that remarkable 57% career win rate with Zen Nation — but our model gives this one the edge. Luis Alberto Batista picks up the mount for trainer Eddie Clouston, who is also represented by Out of Cents in this race, giving the barn a dual shot at the winner's circle. The average speed figure of 54 ties for the top mark in the field, and at 5/2, Abundant Energy offers fair odds for the probable top selection in this short but competitive field.

place4Zen NationML 2/1

Zen Nation is nearly impossible to ignore at 2/1 on the morning line — shorter than our win pick — with a TrackWiz rating of 81.67 and that same elite 57% career win rate. Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Jami C. Poole, who also has Dembe Zuma in the race and clearly respects this distance and condition. The price difference between Zen Nation and Abundant Energy is what tips TrackWiz analysis toward the latter, but Zen Nation is absolutely a live horse for the place spot and beyond.

show3Out of CentsML 7/2

Out of Cents brings a TrackWiz rating of 78.54, a 23% career win rate, and an average speed of 54 — making this one of the more solid show plays on the card. Trainer Eddie Clouston double-dips with Abundant Energy in the same race, but Out of Cents is no throwaway entry with numbers like these. Joe Stokes gets the mount at 7/2, and in a race where the top three finishers could all be separated by a neck, this is a natural trifecta inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

9:55 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Crime Lord goes to post as a 5/1 overlay despite owning the top TrackWiz rating in this maiden claiming sprint — while Big Notion is the morning-line favorite, our model suggests the market has this race slightly backwards.

win6Crime LordML 5/1

Crime Lord tops this field with a TrackWiz rating of 84.17 and gets Jose A. Leon aboard for trainer Juan Pablo Silva — a sharp jockey-trainer combination that is very live in this maiden claiming spot. The average speed figure of 53 matches the field leaders, and at 5/1 on the morning line while the model says this is the best horse in the race, that's the kind of value angle TrackWiz analysis is built to find. In a maiden field with no career wins on the board, rating separations like this matter significantly.

place8Big NotionML 2/1

Big Notion draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 and backs it up with a TrackWiz rating of 80.46 — the second-best in the race. Francisco Garcia takes the mount for Juan Pablo Silva, meaning the same trainer is throwing his two best-rated horses at this field. The top speed figure of 54 in the field is a legitimate edge in a short dirt sprint, and even if Crime Lord bests this one, Big Notion has the profile to hit the board.

show2Mas Que NadaML 3/1

Mas Que Nada rates third in this maiden claiming field at 68.62 and is priced at a fair 3/1 on the morning line with Elijah Greenidge in the saddle for Nestor R. Rivera. An average speed figure of 52 is a workable number in 5-furlong maiden claiming company, and this horse represents a solid show play with some exacta appeal if the top two fill out the top spots as projected. Rounding out your trifecta tickets with Mas Que Nada makes sense given the rating distribution in this field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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It's a workable eight-race card at Mountaineer today with perfect weather and two surfaces in play. Ghostly Girl is the headliner among our free picks, Ante Antman is the longshot worth a hard look, and the premium card has at least two races we're circling as genuine value opportunities. Unlock the full card at TrackWiz — details at /pricing. Good luck out there, and let's make the last Monday of summer a profitable one.

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