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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — September 6, 2026

September 6, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Labor Day weekend is barely in the rearview mirror, but Mountaineer is back at it with a full 8-race card on Sunday, September 6th. Clear skies and a comfortable 73°F make for ideal conditions — no excuses for horses or handicappers today.

What stands out immediately is the turf-heavy early card. Three of the first four races go on the grass, which shapes the pace scenarios in ways that dirt-only bettors sometimes overlook. Pay attention to how those races set up — horses that rate well on turf in this kind of calm weather tend to run to their figures.

We've got three free previews to get you started, plus five premium races behind the curtain for subscribers who want the full picture. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Turf

A wide-open 14-horse maiden field on the turf creates a chaotic pace scenario, but our TrackWiz ratings carve out a clear top three — with one standout separating himself from the pack.

win7FictionML 5/1

Fiction (7) sits at the top of our TrackWiz ratings with an 84.17 — the highest mark in the field by a meaningful margin — and draws in at a very playable 5/1 morning line. Trainer Jami C. Poole sends this one out on the Mountaineer turf at seven furlongs, a distance that should suit a horse with this kind of profile. Jockey Elijah Greenidge gets the call, and with the field this crowded, a clean trip from the seven-hole could be the difference. In a maiden field where nobody has a career win to their name, you go with the horse who projects the best on paper.

place10BriarcliffML 4/1

Briarcliff (10) posts a strong 70.99 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and trainer Tina Ramgeet has Andrew R. Ramgeet in the irons, a reliable barn-and-rider combo at this meet. The 4/1 morning line is fair, and in a maiden turf sprint with this many horses, hitting the board is a realistic expectation for a horse rated this well.

show9CaesareaML 2/1

Caesarea (9) comes in as the morning line favorite at 2/1 under trainer Eric R. Reed, who knows how to spot horses for winning spots. The 69.32 rating holds up well against this field, and while our model slightly prefers Fiction and Briarcliff at the top, Caesarea is absolutely a horse to include in your exotics as a reliable board-hitter.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

This seven-furlong turf claimer features a clear top-rated contender, but Cascabel's strong career win percentage and a sneaky mid-range rating make the pace picture more competitive than the morning line suggests.

win5How About ItML 2/1

How About It (5) is the class of this field according to our TrackWiz model, posting an 88.54 rating — well clear of the second-ranked horse. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini puts Luis Negron aboard, and at 2/1 on the morning line, the market agrees with our numbers. The 9% career win rate won't knock you off your chair, but this horse's overall rating profile suggests form that fits this level well on the Mountaineer turf.

place4CascabelML 4/1

Cascabel (4) brings the best career win percentage in the field at 15% — a number that stands out in a claiming field at this level. The 76.44 TrackWiz rating and a 4/1 morning line make this horse a legitimate threat to hit the board, and trainer Jose Luna Silva clearly knows how to keep this one sharp. If How About It gets caught up in any trouble, Cascabel is ready to capitalize.

show2Wings of GodML 8/1

Wings of God (2) is the value angle in the show spot, carrying a solid 68.77 rating at 8/1 on the morning line. Trainer Jami C. Poole puts Agustin Bracho aboard, and a 9% career win rate on a horse with this rating suggests there's more ability here than the odds imply. For trifecta players especially, Wings of God is worth including as a live longshot threat.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The starter allowance at a mile on turf sets up as a battle between three closely rated horses at the top, with pace likely to be a factor going two turns — handicappers looking for value will find it mid-price.

win7SoupersilverdollarML 5/1

Soupersilverdollar (7) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 and draws in at a juicy 5/1 morning line, making this a strong best-bet candidate. Andrew R. Ramgeet gets the mount for trainer Harry Pease, a barn that clearly had this horse pointed at this spot. The 20% career win rate is middle-of-the-pack for this field, but the overall rating profile at this price is where the value lies — our model likes this one more than the morning line does.

place8LetmeknowbeforeugoML 7/1

Letmeknowbeforeugo (8) is the sneaky angle in this race, posting a 78.44 rating and a career win rate of 26% — one of the better marks in the field. Trainer Alejandro Gomez gets his own jockey, Alejandro Gomez Jr., in the irons, which is always a nice sign of trainer confidence. At 7/1, this is genuinely good value for a horse that wins over a quarter of the time.

show6Defiant GiantML 2/1

Defiant Giant (6) is the morning line favorite at 2/1, and the 77.29 TrackWiz rating backs up that status. Trainer Timothy Shanley sends out Norberto Arroyo Jr., a capable rider for the distance. While our model slots Defiant Giant just behind the top two, a 22% career win rate makes this a safe show play and a necessary inclusion in any exotics tickets.

The opening trio gives us a nice cross-section of the card. In Race 1, Fiction catches our eye at a juicy 5/1 morning line — maiden turf sprints over 7 furlongs can be wide-open, but our TrackWiz rating of 84.17 has Fiction sitting comfortably at the top of the field. Race 2 tightens up considerably: How About It is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and backs it up with the strongest TrackWiz rating of the free races at 88.54. When a horse is both the public choice and our top-rated runner, that alignment is worth respecting.

Race 3 shifts to a mile on the turf in a Starter Allowance — a class condition that rewards horses who've already earned a starting box. Soupersilverdollar (yes, that name) comes in at 5/1 on the morning line with an 84.17 rating. The mile distance on a clear day with no wind factor is a plus for pace-pressers who like to settle and kick. Watch the early splits closely — the turf trifecta in Races 1-3 sets up some interesting multi-race angles.

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Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Five furlongs on the dirt with a pair of Bernardini runners in the top two spots creates an interesting barn dynamic — Trigger Point leads our ratings, but the pace from a compact field of eight could shake things up.

win1Trigger PointML 3/1

Trigger Point (1) posts the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and carries a remarkable 40% career win rate — by far the best in this group. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini puts Luis Alberto Batista up, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse our model identifies as slightly undervalued. Over five furlongs of Mountaineer dirt, a horse with this kind of winning profile should be a tough out.

place7Fivefive Six ChampML 2/1

Fivefive Six Champ (7) is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and brings a 78.21 TrackWiz rating along with a 32% career win rate — the second-best in the field. Also from the Bernardini barn, this one has the profile of a horse that wins its share, and while our model gives Trigger Point the edge, Fivefive Six Champ is absolutely a horse that could reverse the order. Include both in your exotics.

show5Bustin LooseML 8/1

Bustin Loose (5) is the value spot in this race, sitting at 8/1 on the morning line with a 75.73 TrackWiz rating that's competitive with the top horses here. Trainer Randy Bayley gives Norberto Arroyo Jr. the mount, and a 20% career win rate shows this horse can win. At the price, Bustin Loose is an excellent show play and an interesting trifecta option against the two Bernardini horses.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eight-horse maiden dirt sprint with no prior winners in the field — Califragilistic draws wide support from our model, but the morning line is tight enough that the show price might be where the real value hides.

win1CalifragilisticML 2/1

Califragilistic (1) leads all horses with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and comes in as the 2/1 morning line favorite for trainer J. Michael Baird. Deshawn L. Parker gets the mount, and in a maiden field with no career wins to sort through, this horse's rating advantage is the cleanest signal we have. Baird also runs Load the Wagon in this race, which speaks to his confidence in having multiple live contenders — and Califragilistic is clearly the top of the barn's entry.

place5LastshotatlightninML 7/2

Lastshotatlightnin (5) posts a 70.37 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and trainer Moises Valdez has Michael Y. Pagan aboard at a 7/2 morning line. In a maiden sprint, the second-rated horse at a fair price is exactly the type of horse you want underneath Califragilistic in your exacta. No career wins to lean on, but the rating says this one belongs near the top.

show8OcataML 3/1

Ocata (8) brings a 68.73 TrackWiz rating and draws at 3/1, which is solid value for the third-rated horse in the field. Trainer Denis Cluley and jockey Kevin Gonzalez combine here, and the rating profile suggests Ocata is capable of hitting the board in a maiden field of this caliber. Slot this one into your trifectas as a reliable third option.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight six-horse starter optional claimer at a mile on dirt features two horses nearly identical in our ratings at the very top — making this a race where the value pick might outrun the short-priced morning line favorite.

win4TizawhitefacecatML 4/1

Tizawhitefacecat (4) edges out Force of Justice by the slimmest of margins in our TrackWiz model — 85.62 to 85.09 — and does so at the considerably better price of 4/1 versus 6/5. Trainer Denis Cluley puts Kevin Gonzalez aboard, and a 20% career win rate in a field of proven horses shows this one has been around the winner's circle before. When two horses are this close in our ratings, taking the one at more than three times the morning line price is just smart handicapping.

place1Force of JusticeML 6/5

Force of Justice (1) is tough to dismiss at any price given a 37% career win rate — the best in this field and a truly elite number for a horse at this level. Trainer Virginia Demczyk has Alejandro Gomez Jr. aboard, and this horse has proven it can get the job done over a mile of dirt. The 6/5 morning line reflects the market's respect, and while we take Tizawhitefacecat as our top selection, Force of Justice is never out of this race.

show3St. Louie LouieML 5/2

St. Louie Louie (3) lands in the show spot with a 71.66 TrackWiz rating and a 23% career win rate that holds up well in this six-horse field. Trainer Benny R. Feliciano puts his own son Ricardo Feliciano in the irons — a family connection that often signals extra motivation. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is a straightforward show play and a logical third leg for any trifecta construction.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 fur · Dirt

A five-furlong starter allowance on the dirt shapes up as a pace duel with multiple speed-figure contenders clustering at the top — our top pick offers real value at a price the market hasn't fully caught up to.

win5A Little Bit CrazyML 3/1

A Little Bit Crazy (5) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and comes in at 3/1 on the morning line — a price that represents genuine value for the top-rated horse in the field. Trainer Jami C. Poole has Elijah Greenidge up, and a 20% career win rate in a starter allowance field is respectable. Over five furlongs of Mountaineer dirt, a horse with this kind of rating edge and a willing jockey should be able to press or stalk the pace and have enough left to hold.

place7SmalltownsmokeshowML 2/1

Smalltownsmokeshow (7) brings a 74.01 TrackWiz rating and is actually the morning line co-favorite at 2/1 despite ranking second in our model. Trainer Kent Knudsen gives Deshawn L. Parker the call, and a 17% career win rate in this company is workable. This is a horse the market clearly respects, and it should be part of your exotics as a horse capable of running down A Little Bit Crazy if things go sideways for the top pick.

show4Bashful DaisyML 7/2

Bashful Daisy (4) is a horse worth watching — a 69.35 TrackWiz rating paired with a 28% career win rate makes this one of the better win-percentage horses in the field at any price. Trainer Tina Ramgeet has Andrew R. Ramgeet in the irons, keeping this one in the family, which is always a confidence signal. At 7/2 on the morning line, Bashful Daisy is a legitimate show play and a horse that could surprise at a mutuel price if things break right.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A ten-horse dirt-mile claimer with a morning line favorite at 7/5 creates a scenario where beating the chalk is the goal — our top selection has the rating to do exactly that at a better price.

win8Cleveland PowerML 4/1

Cleveland Power (8) tops our TrackWiz model at 85.62 — edging out the favored Unclecharliesgift — and does it at a much more appealing 4/1 morning line. Trainer Jose A. Lopez puts Norberto Arroyo Jr. aboard, and while the 7% career win rate is on the lower side, it's the rating profile that drives this selection, not the past win count. In a ten-horse field going a mile on the dirt, Arroyo Jr. is skilled enough to find a stalking trip and deliver this horse at the business end.

place4UnclecharliesgiftML 7/5

Unclecharliesgift (4) is the morning line chalk at 7/5 and comes armed with the field's best career win rate at 27% — a number that commands respect in any field. Trainer Eddie Clouston puts Elijah Greenidge up, and the 82.29 TrackWiz rating confirms this horse belongs at the top of the market. Even if our model gives Cleveland Power a slight edge, Unclecharliesgift is the kind of high-win-percentage horse that almost always hits the board.

show1EmberML 12/1

Ember (1) is the longshot play in the show spot with a 59.70 TrackWiz rating at 12/1 on the morning line. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini has Brandon Tapara — wait, it's Deshawn L. Parker aboard here — and a 20% career win rate in a claiming field means this horse isn't without credentials. At double-digit odds, Ember is the kind of horse that turns a $2 trifecta ticket into a meaningful payout if the top two run as expected.

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Bottom line: this is a card that rewards preparation. The free races give you Fiction, How About It, and Soupersilverdollar as solid starting points — three turf plays with clear upside. The premium races bring the dirt-track action and the multi-race wager opportunities where the real money can be made. Full analysis, pace projections, and exotic breakdowns for Races 4-8 are available to TrackWiz subscribers — check out our plans if you want the complete card. Good luck out there today.

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