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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — August 23, 2026

August 23, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Results are in — see the official Mountaineer chart and payouts (our top pick won 1 of 8)→

Mountaineer Park is putting on a show this Sunday, and the conditions couldn't be better for it. Clear skies and a cool 69°F make for a near-perfect late-summer afternoon at the track — the kind of day where horses run free and times hold up. Eight races are on the card, and there's plenty to dig into from first post to the finale.

What jumps out immediately is the turf-heavy lean to this card. Three of the first four races are run on the grass, giving turf specialists a real chance to shine early. Then the card shifts to dirt for Races 5 through 8, setting up a natural split that rewards bettors who can read both surfaces. Keep that transition in mind as you build your tickets.

Our TrackWiz ratings cover all eight races today. Races 1 through 3 are free for all readers — a solid Maiden Special Weight opener headlined by Caesarea, a competitive Starter Optional Claiming in Race 2, and a Claiming turf sprint in Race 3. Races 4 through 8 are unlocked for subscribers, and trust us — that's where some of the most interesting pace scenarios and value plays are hiding.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A maiden turf mile with a clear class standout at the top, but a competitive mid-pack that could make the final turn interesting — don't expect a wire-to-wire walkover.

win2CaesareaML 2/1

Caesarea tops our TrackWiz ratings at 88.54, a significant gap above the rest of this maiden field, and Eric Reed is a trainer who knows how to spot a debut opportunity. The morning line of 2/1 reflects public respect, but that rating edge — nearly nine points clear of second-ranked Distinguished Gent — suggests the price may still be fair value. On a one-mile turf course, pace stamina matters, and Caesarea's profile fits the distance well under Bailey Weatherly.

place5Distinguished GentML 5/2

Distinguished Gent brings the field's top average speed figure at 53, a tick above most rivals, and the Kyle Gilbert/Julia Gilbert trainer-jockey combination keeps connections tight and communication sharp. At 5/2 on the morning line, he's not a price play, but his speed edge makes him a logical exacta partner underneath Caesarea in a race where the top two are clearly separated from the rest.

show4They Not Like UsML 7/2

They Not Like Us at 7/2 is the third-best rated horse in the field at 61.65 and offers a measure of value as a show play in what looks like a three-horse race at the top. Ricardo Barrios has navigated enough turf routes at Mountaineer to know how to save ground on the first turn, which matters on a one-mile course. Solid exotic inclusion at a fair price.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

Two horses from the same barn sit atop the TrackWiz ratings and dominate this starter optional claiming turf sprint — but a pair of high-win-percentage runners lurk to complicate the exacta.

win5Lu's RedemptionML 4/1

Lu's Redemption posts a field-best rating of 85.01 and shares a barn with Canadian Bear under trainer Jay Bernardini — when a barn runs two live horses, it's worth noting which one gets the edge, and our model gives it to the #5. Jockey Norberto Arroyo Jr. is an experienced hand who knows how to ride a closer's trip on turf, and an 11% career win rate understates the horse's current form cycle. At 4/1 on the morning line, this is a genuine win contender at a workable price.

place3Canadian BearML 5/1

Canadian Bear rates just a hair below stablemate Lu's Redemption at 84.17, and at 5/1 he's worth keying underneath in exactas. With a career win rate of 23% — the second-best in the field — this is a horse that knows how to finish, and Rocco Bowen is a polished turf rider. The Bernardini barn running two horses in a starter optional claiming event signals real intent.

show7Ultima GraceML 3/1

Ultima Grace has the field's best average speed figure at 54 and a 27% career win rate, making her a legitimate pace factor in a seven-furlong turf sprint. At 3/1 on the morning line, she may be slightly underlaid for a show bet, but her raw speed makes her a natural exotics anchor if she can get a clean trip from the outside post.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A full and competitive thirteen-horse claiming turf sprint where the top of the TrackWiz ratings is tightly bunched — pace scenario and trip luck will be critical factors in this one.

win5AnalystML 3/1

Analyst rates at the top of this field at 80.57 and sports a 12% career win rate, which is right in line with the competitive claiming ranks at Mountaineer. Erik Barbaran gets the call, and with a 54 average speed figure, this horse has the raw tools to factor in a 7-furlong turf sprint. The 3/1 morning line is accurate — Analyst is the class of the field on our numbers and deserves top billing.

place2Shore TimeML 8/1

Shore Time is an interesting angle here — rated 79.79, nearly even with Analyst, but posted at 8/1 on the morning line, which makes him a clear value overlay. Luis Negron is aboard, and trainer Juan Vazquez also runs Uncle William in this race, giving the barn two shots. Shore Time's 11% career win rate and 53 average speed figure put him squarely in the mix, and at that price, he's the most compelling exacta play on the card.

show11Hot WingsML 7/2

Hot Wings comes in rated 76.01 at 7/2 — a reasonable price for a horse sitting third in the TrackWiz ratings with an 8% career win rate on a surface where pace scenarios can shuffle the deck late. Norberto Arroyo Jr. is aboard for Bernardini, a combination that consistently produces results. Include Hot Wings in trifectas as a live third option.

The opening trio of races gives us a nice cross-section of the card. On the turf, the theme is clear early: look for horses with proven grass form or pedigrees that translate well to the going. Caesarea draws our top rating in Race 1 at 88.54 — a strong number for a maiden field — and opens at a fair 2/1 morning line. In Race 2, Lu's Redemption is the one to beat in the Starter Optional Claiming at 4/1, a price that offers legitimate value if you think our model has this one pegged right. Race 3 brings another turf sprint, and Analyst at 3/1 is a name worth circling — solid rating, manageable odds, and a surface that should suit.

With three turf races running back-to-back under good ground conditions, pace scenarios figure to be honest early. These aren't fields where one horse will likely lead wire-to-wire unchallenged — there should be enough early pressure to set up closers, which is exactly the kind of setup our top picks are built for.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

Finding Candy looms as the class standout in a wide-open fourteen-horse claiming turf sprint, but several mid-teens starters are capable of creating chaos — the show pick at 12/1 is the most intriguing value on the board.

win8Finding CandyML 2/1

Finding Candy owns the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 — the same elite score we saw from Race 1's top selection — and goes postward as the 2/1 morning line favorite with Yuri Yaranga up for trainer Jeff Fletcher. A 9% career win rate is modest, but the 52 average speed figure and that commanding rating edge are hard to dismiss in a field this large. In a race where trip luck matters, Finding Candy's overall quality gives her a meaningful margin for error.

place2El KozanML 7/2

El Kozan rates second in the field at 81.27 with a 7% career win rate and draws the #2 post, which is a clean running position in a turf sprint. Luis Alberto Batista is a reliable partner in these spots, and trainer Alexis Cordero-Lopez keeps a sharp stable. At 7/2, El Kozan is a fair-priced place contender who figures to be within striking range at the top of the stretch.

show10How About ItML 12/1

How About It is our show pick at a juicy 12/1 morning line — rated 68.88 and carrying a 5% career win rate, this is a horse that doesn't win often but has enough class to hit the board. Luis Negron is a strong booking for the Jay Bernardini barn, which has multiple entries today and clearly has the stable running well. At that price, How About It is an outstanding trifecta wheel candidate.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Soupersilverdollar stands out clearly on ratings in this one-mile dirt claiming event, but a pair of high-win-percentage closers could make the pace scenario interesting turning for home.

win6SoupersilverdollarML 3/1

Soupersilverdollar tops this seven-horse field at 87.08 and sports a 17% career win rate — one of the stronger resumes in a competitive claiming event. Andrew Ramgeet rides for Tina Ramgeet, a powerful trainer-jockey barn combination that has shown up multiple times today, and on a one-mile dirt track, stamina is the name of the game. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a genuine win selection that lines up with both our ratings and real-world ability.

place2Colonel PoppyML 8/1

Colonel Poppy at 8/1 is a sneaky value place play — rated 65.69 with an 8% career win rate, this horse sits second in the TrackWiz rankings but is posted at a much bigger price than the top two on the morning line. Luis Negron pilots for Jay Bernardini, a barn running strong all card long, and the 52 average speed figure is sufficient for this level. Play him underneath Soupersilverdollar in exactas.

show5BossmeML 9/2

Bossme rates 62.06 with a 51 average speed figure and a 10% career win rate — not flashy numbers, but enough to factor in a seven-horse dirt sprint where the field isn't deep. Yuri Yaranga is an active jock at Mountaineer who knows how to position a horse, and at 9/2 on the morning line, Bossme is a solid show anchor for anyone looking to get paid in trifectas.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Special Cap dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claiming dirt sprint and looks like a clear morning-line favorite — the question is whether Sylvette or Mazarn can make it interesting.

win1Special CapML 2/1

Special Cap leads all horses in this field with a 88.54 rating and goes as the 2/1 morning line chalk under Jose Leon for trainer Horacio Barbaran. In a maiden claiming sprint on dirt, that kind of rating edge is meaningful — it suggests a horse that is simply operating at a higher level than these rivals. The 51 average speed figure is in line with the field, so it's the overall quality score that separates Special Cap here.

place4SylvetteML 7/2

Sylvette rates second in the field at 76.98 with Michael Pagan in the irons for the Eddie Clouston barn — a trainer with a steady hand who places horses well at this level. At 7/2, Sylvette is a fair-priced exacta underneath Special Cap, and her 50 average speed figure suggests she'll be competitive without needing to outrun the favorite. A reliable place contender.

show5MazarnML 9/2

Mazarn rates 69.9 — third best in the field — and gets Bailey Weatherly, one of the more dependable jockeys on the Mountaineer circuit, for trainer John Brown. At 9/2 on the morning line, Mazarn has the ratings and pilot to make the board in a short maiden claiming field. A sensible trifecta add-on behind the top two in our rankings.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Lil Breezzy tops the ratings in this six-furlong dirt claiming race but faces a legitimate morning-line favorite in Everheart — this one sets up as a genuine two-horse battle with pace questions determining order of finish.

win1Lil BreezzyML 4/1

Lil Breezzy owns the field's best TrackWiz rating at 85.62, well clear of most rivals, and shows an impressive 18% career win rate — one of the highest in the field. Luis Alberto Batista gets the call for the Eddie Clouston barn, a combination that is clicking today, and the 54 average speed figure matches True Class for the top mark in the race. At 4/1, there's real value here compared to Everheart's 2/1 morning line, especially with a rating edge that our model finds meaningful.

place7EverheartML 2/1

Everheart rates 77.13 and is the 2/1 morning-line favorite — Luis Negron is aboard for Juan Vazquez, a barn running multiple horses today. The 53 average speed figure is solid, and while Everheart may be underlaid for a win bet, a place ticket at those odds is reasonable for bettors who prefer the chalk. This horse figures to be right there at the top of the stretch.

show5True ClassML 9/2

True Class is worth including in trifectas — a 30% career win rate is the best in the entire field and signals a horse that, when fit and right, knows how to close out a race. Yuri Yaranga is a capable pilot, and the 54 average speed figure ties for tops in the field. At 9/2, True Class is the most intriguing exotics piece in this race.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Scoot Along sits at the top of a ten-horse claiming field and looks like the clear TrackWiz selection, but Signature Ring's elite win percentage adds a significant wrinkle to the exotic wagering picture.

win3Scoot AlongML 3/1

Scoot Along leads this field with an 87.08 rating — the same score as Soupersilverdollar in Race 5 — and goes postward at 3/1 for the Clouston-Batista combination, which has been active and live all day at Mountaineer. The 53 average speed figure and 17% career win rate back up the ratings, and a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint suits a horse with that kind of raw figure. This is a confident top selection.

place5Crystal ProofML 4/1

Crystal Proof rates 75.46 with a 25% career win rate — one of the stronger winning percentages in the field — and draws Jose Leon for trainer Juan Pablo Silva. At 4/1 on the morning line, Crystal Proof is a legitimate place contender with real upside, and the 53 average speed figure keeps her in range of the top selection throughout. Include her in exactas underneath Scoot Along.

show9Signature RingML 5/1

Signature Ring brings an eye-catching 33% career win rate — tied for the highest on today's entire card — and a 54 average speed figure that is the best in the field. Brandon Tapara rides for Julie Mathes, and at 5/1, this is a horse that routinely finds the winner's circle. Signature Ring has show pick status here, but honestly, a win ticket at 5/1 is worth serious consideration given that career win percentage.

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Bottom line: Mountaineer is offering a clean, well-structured 8-race card today with excellent weather and a surface mix that rewards sharp handicapping. Caesarea, Lu's Redemption, and Analyst are your free best bets to start the afternoon — and there's plenty more value waiting in the premium races. Subscribers can access full pace scenarios, trainer angles, and exotic plays for Races 4 through 8 right now at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — let's have a day.

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