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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — August 19, 2026

August 19, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Results are in — see the official Mountaineer chart and payouts (our top pick won 3 of 8)→

Mountaineer is rolling out an 8-race card this Wednesday under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 75°F, and the conditions couldn't be better for a day that leans heavily on the grass. Three of today's first four races go on the turf, so surface versatility and recent turf form are going to matter more than usual when you're building your tickets.

The card is a nice mix of claiming races and a couple of upper-level spots — including a Starter Allowance and an Allowance Optional Claiming — that give serious bettors some real teeth to sink into. TrackWiz has rated the full field across all eight races, and a few of today's top picks carry ratings in the high 80s, which is the kind of edge you want on a mid-week card where the general public is flying a little blind.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A compact five-furlong dirt sprint where the morning-line chalk looks vulnerable against a pair of higher-rated rivals — this one could get lively at the windows.

win7Good MomentsML 5/2

Good Moments tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and backs that up with a 33% career win rate — that's the best strike rate in this field by a wide margin. Jockey Michael Y. Pagan gets on a horse who has consistently run competitive speed figures, averaging a 54, right in line with the top tier here. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's no massive overlay, but the combination of elite rating and elite win percentage makes this the most logical ticket in Race 1. In a short five-furlong sprint, horses who win often tend to win fast — and Good Moments fits that profile.

place3Loyal ClementML 9/2

Loyal Clement is the second-highest rated horse in the field at 81.26, and a 21% career win rate gives him legitimate credentials in a claiming sprint. Trainer Juan Carlos Gotera sends him out with Luis Negron up, and the 9/2 morning line suggests the market hasn't fully caught on to how strong his TrackWiz score is relative to the field. If Good Moments handles the pace pressure, Loyal Clement is the horse most likely to be finishing right behind him.

show6StepnoskiML 8/5

Stepnoski is the public's choice at 8/5, and while our top rating doesn't land here, his 76.86 score and 27% career win rate keep him firmly in the exotic conversation. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini is a familiar name on this card, and Brandon Tapara rides. As the chalk, Stepnoski will attract plenty of win money, but underneath in a trifecta he's a solid safety net given his consistent speed figures.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A tight turf mile where the top two TrackWiz ratings are separated by less than half a point — expect a closely contested finish between the top of the market.

win1Worth ConsideringML 3/1

Worth Considering leads our ratings at 87.08 and brings a 23% career win rate into a race where most of the field sits well below those figures. Norberto Arroyo, Jr. gets the call from trainer Angel M. Rodriguez, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's a touch of value here given the top score. On a mile turf route — a distance that rewards horses with stamina and tactical positioning — Worth Considering's profile as a consistent, high-rated runner fits the conditions well.

place2Ghostly GirlML 2/1

Ghostly Girl is just a tick behind at 86.74 in our ratings, but the morning line has her as the 2/1 favorite, suggesting the public is slightly ahead of us on this one. Luis Negron rides for trainer Juan C. Vazquez, and while a career win percentage of 8% gives some pause, that figure can be misleading for turf horses who may have faced tougher company. The rating says she belongs, and in a tight two-horse battle at the top, she's the most likely runner-up.

show4StuboldML 4/1

Stubold checks in third in our ratings at 79.20 and offers a bit of value at 4/1 on the morning line. Rocco Bowen is a capable rider, and trainer Jay P. Bernardini has runners scattered across this card, which speaks to a stable in active form. If the pace collapses up front, Stubold's profile as a double-digit-career-start veteran on turf could see him hitting the board.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden claiming test on the turf at seven furlongs — nobody in this ten-horse field has ever won a race, making Crafty Lawyer's rating edge even more compelling.

win9Crafty LawyerML 2/1

Crafty Lawyer absolutely dominates this maiden field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — a 15-point gap over the next closest contender. Luis Alberto Batista rides for trainer Eddie Clouston, and while everyone in this race is still looking for win number one, Crafty Lawyer's profile stands out enough that the 2/1 morning line makes him a clear best bet. Seven furlongs on turf is a distance that rewards pace control and late kick, and Crafty Lawyer's figures suggest he's ready to break through.

place2Red DrapesML 8/1

Red Drapes is our second pick and offers some genuine value at 8/1 on the morning line — the kind of price that makes trifecta tickets affordable. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini sends out Brandon Tapara aboard, and a rating of 59.87 puts Red Drapes clearly ahead of the mid-pack in a chaotic maiden field. If Crafty Lawyer goes straight to the front, Red Drapes could be the one to track him down late on the seven-furlong turf trip.

show6Offthe Beaten PathML 9/2

Offthe Beaten Path sits third in our ratings at 50.19 and is fairly priced at 9/2, giving exotic players a reachable show option. Kevin Gonzalez takes the mount for trainer Jennifer A. Johnson, and while no maiden here has a career win to their name, this horse's figure edges out most of the field. In a ten-horse field with plenty of first-time experience, having a horse rated solidly in the middle of the top tier is enough to anchor a show bet.

The first three races are free for all TrackWiz readers, and they cover some genuinely interesting ground. Race 1 sends Good Moments (morning line 5/2) out for a quick 5-furlong sprint on the dirt — a good early-card tempo-setter. From there, the card shifts to the turf for Race 2, where Worth Considering (3/1) stretches out to a mile and projects as a solid value play at those odds. The real headliner in the free tier, though, is Crafty Lawyer in Race 3 — a 7-furlong maiden claiming event on the turf. Our highest-rated free pick at 88.54, Crafty Lawyer comes in as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, and that rating suggests the oddsmakers may actually be undervaluing the edge here.

With three straight races on or transitioning to turf to open the day, keep an eye on rail position and early pace — on a mild day like today with no rain in the equation, the turf should be playing fair and honest, which tends to benefit horses with clean turf speed figures rather than deep closers hoping for a collapse up front.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Collected Mist and Diamond Dancer are essentially co-favorites in the ratings for this five-furlong turf claimer, setting up a potential photo finish at the top — and Late Spring Night lurks as a sneaky show option.

win7Collected MistML 3/1

Collected Mist edges Diamond Dancer by the slimmest of margins in our ratings — 86.59 to 86.35 — and comes in at 3/1 on the morning line, offering slightly better value than the 7/2 number on his top rival. Jockey Joe Stokes pilots for trainer Kevin Monday, and a career win rate of 9% looks modest on the surface, but the speed figure of 54 is among the best in this field. In a five-furlong turf sprint, where pace is king, Collected Mist's consistent figures make him the top selection in a race that could be decided by a neck.

place5Diamond DancerML 7/2

Diamond Dancer is essentially a coinflip with our top pick based on ratings, and Luis Negron — one of the more active jockeys on this card — gets the mount for trainer Juan Pablo Silva. A 16% career win rate is respectable, and the 54 average speed figure matches Collected Mist stride for stride. If there's a pace battle up front, Diamond Dancer's profile as a horse who can sit just off the lead and pounce makes her the ideal place play.

show9Late Spring NightML 6/1

Late Spring Night is the third-rated horse at 77.30 and presents a nice in-between option at 6/1 on the morning line. Bailey Weatherly rides for Claudie Marshall Godsey, Jr., and the 14% career win rate gives this runner a realistic shot at hitting the board in a nine-horse field. Late Spring Night's avg speed of 53 is competitive without being elite, making her a natural show-bet hedge when the top two are this closely matched.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 fur · Dirt

This five-furlong dirt starter allowance is essentially a two-horse race at the top — A Little Bit Crazy and Del Rey Dolly dominate the ratings and both deserve respect, with a legitimate show contender lurking in the middle of the pack.

win6A Little Bit CrazyML 5/2

A Little Bit Crazy tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 with a 21% career win rate and is our top selection despite going postward at 5/2, narrowly above the 2/1 favorite Del Rey Dolly. Elijah Greenidge is aboard for trainer Jami C. Poole, and the 52 average speed figure is consistent with what this level demands in a five-furlong dash. The edge in our model, combined with a slight value advantage over the favorite, gives A Little Bit Crazy the nod as the top pick in this spot.

place7Del Rey DollyML 2/1

Del Rey Dolly is no pushover — an 85.37 rating and a 31% career win rate make her one of the most accomplished horses on this entire card. Agustin Bracho rides for trainer Devan Ewell, Sr., and at 2/1, she's the public's top choice. The gap between our win pick and Del Rey Dolly is minimal, and in a five-furlong sprint, any pace scenario favoring a quick start could flip this order entirely — she's a must-use in the exacta.

show3Fancy PrincessML 6/1

Fancy Princess checks in at 64.71 in our ratings and offers some value at 6/1 on the morning line. Bailey Weatherly gets the mount for Donald T. Blankenship, and a 14% career win rate in a starter allowance field tells you this filly has been competitive. With two clearly superior horses at the top, Fancy Princess as a show anchor in trifectas makes sense — especially if the top pair duels each other into a tiring finish.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Classic Alphie stands head and shoulders above this six-furlong dirt claiming field in our ratings, but the real intrigue is the longshot value in the place spot — Red Fern at 15/1 is the price play of the race.

win2Classic AlphieML 2/1

Classic Alphie leads all horses in Race 6 with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and goes as the 2/1 morning-line favorite — which is justified but not exactly a big overlay. Luis Negron rides for trainer Juan Pablo Silva, and while a career win percentage of 4% is strikingly low, ratings models account for consistency and competitive form beyond raw win totals. The speed figure of 52 is middle of the pack here, but the overall model profile makes Classic Alphie the clear top selection in this six-horse field.

place6Red FernML 15/1

Red Fern at 15/1 is the most intriguing play on the entire race card tonight. A 68.47 TrackWiz rating is the second-best figure in this field, yet the morning line has this runner buried at the bottom of the market — that gap between our model and the odds is exactly the kind of inefficiency worth targeting. Luis Alberto Batista picks up the mount for trainer Eddie Clouston, who also saddles Crafty Lawyer in Race 3 and Larimar in Race 7, showing a stable with active, live runners. At 15/1, Red Fern as a place bet in the exacta underneath Classic Alphie could pay handsomely.

show5Ticket to ParadiseML 5/2

Ticket to Paradise is a fair 5/2 morning-line price with a 56.15 rating and an 11% career win rate. Kyle Gilbert rides for Ney Pessanha, and the 53 average speed figure is among the best in the field. As a show anchor for conservative bettors who want to cash something, Ticket to Paradise provides a solid safety option — though at 5/2, the return on a show ticket may be modest if the chalk runs its race.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming test at six furlongs where trainer Eddie Clouston sends out two live runners, Larimar and Flat Out Diamonds, making his barn the dominant stable to watch in this race.

win8LarimarML 4/1

Larimar is our top pick at 85.62 in the ratings, and the 4/1 morning line offers genuine value in a field where our model separates her clearly. Luis Alberto Batista has the mount for trainer Eddie Clouston, a combination that also fires in Race 6 on this card. A 30% career win rate is excellent for this level of competition, and the 54 average speed figure is tied for the top mark in this field — in a six-furlong sprint, that kind of consistent pace puts Larimar in a strong position to dictate or sit comfortably off a hot pace.

place7Flat Out DiamondsML 2/1

Flat Out Diamonds is right in the mix at 80.55 in our ratings and is the 2/1 morning-line favorite — a horse the public clearly respects as well. Luis Negron gets aboard for Eddie Clouston, meaning the trainer has both the top-rated and second-rated horses in this race, a dominant stable angle. A 36% career win rate is outstanding, and the 54 speed figure matches Larimar's best. If these two Clouston runners run 1-2 in any order, exotics players holding both will be rewarded.

show1Cant Fake the HateML 3/1

Cant Fake the Hate is a fascinating show play at 3/1 — a 63.53 rating is well below the top two, but a 45% career win rate is the highest in this field and shouldn't be dismissed. Trainer Eric R. Reed sends out Charle Oliveros, and if there's any scenario where the Clouston pair gets tangled up or faces trouble in running, Cant Fake the Hate's winning instincts could make this horse a dangerous threat to land on the board.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep nine-horse allowance field at six furlongs with some genuinely elite career win percentages scattered throughout — Gone Boy leads our model, but Cybertime's historic strike rate makes this race far from a formality.

win8Gone BoyML 4/1

Gone Boy sits atop our ratings at 85.62 with a 27% career win rate and goes at a fair 4/1 on the morning line. Luis Negron — one of the busiest and most effective riders on this card — picks up the mount for trainer Juan C. Vazquez. The 53 average speed figure is a touch below some rivals, but the overall rating profile suggests Gone Boy brings more well-rounded form into this race than that number alone implies. In a nine-horse allowance, getting 4/1 on the top-rated horse is a good spot to play.

place2CybertimeML 3/1

Cybertime deserves serious respect here — a 61% career win rate is frankly extraordinary and demands attention regardless of the pace scenario. Luis Raul Rivera rides for trainer Anthony Farrior, and the 55 average speed figure is among the fastest in this field, tied with You Bet a Fortune and Jamming Cameron. At 3/1 on the morning line, Cybertime is the natural alternative win play and an essential include in any exacta or trifecta underneath Gone Boy.

show4You Bet a FortuneML 8/1

You Bet a Fortune checks in with a solid 73.68 rating and a 36% career win rate — the second-best strike rate in the field. Brandon Tapara rides for trainer Jay P. Bernardini, who is well-represented across this entire card. The 55 average speed figure ties for best in the field, and the 8/1 morning-line price makes You Bet a Fortune an attractive show overlay — there's a real case this horse could finish closer than the odds suggest.

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Bottom line: Crafty Lawyer is the marquee free play of the day, Good Moments and Worth Considering round out a solid free trio, and the back half of this card has the kind of pace dynamics that can make multi-race exotics very rewarding. Want the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all five premium picks? Grab a TrackWiz subscription at /pricing and make every race count today at Mountaineer.

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