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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — August 12, 2026

August 12, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Mountaineer is dealing with steady rain and 75-degree temperatures this Wednesday, and that changes the calculus on almost every race. The dirt is going to play wet — expect speed horses to either love it or hate it depending on how the surface is holding up as the day progresses. Keep an eye on early results for bias clues.

Eight races are on the card today, mixing maiden claimers, open claimers, and a pair of allowance and starter optional claiming routes on the turf. Yes, turf — Races 3, 4, and 5 are scheduled on the grass, and with rain in the forecast, watch for any surface switches. If those races move to the main track, the entire complexion of the card flips.

TrackWiz has full ratings on every runner in the field. Three races are free for all readers today — a solid sample across the card — with five premium races behind the paywall for subscribers who want the complete picture.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where TrackWiz ratings create a clear pecking order — but maiden races are always volatile, and a 30-point gap between the top horse and the field is worth respecting.

win8Big NotionML 8/5

Big Notion (8) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 — a full 18 points clear of the next rival — and posts the best average speed figure at 54. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva also has Crime Lord in this field, suggesting the barn is live with multiple weapons, but Big Notion is clearly the stable's A-team entry. The 8/5 morning line reflects public confidence, and our analysis backs it up. In maiden company, a horse with this kind of ratings edge is tough to beat.

place6Crime LordML 3/1

Crime Lord (6) is the logical second choice here, with a 71.17 rating and the same 53 average speed as Big Notion's stablemate. Jockey Jose A. Leon gets the call, and being trained by the same barn as the top pick (Juan Pablo Silva) could actually set up an interesting stable dynamic — if Big Notion gets into trouble, Crime Lord is right there to capitalize. At 3/1, there's real place value here.

show7Candy LunaML 5/1

Candy Luna (7) checks in with a 58.37 rating — third-best in the field — and a 52 average speed figure that's competitive for this level. Trainer Donald T. Blankenship and jockey Bailey Weatherly team up at a 5/1 morning line, making Candy Luna a reasonable exotics inclusion. In a maiden field where surprises happen, having the third-rated horse in your show spot makes solid sense.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 2 fur · Dirt

A short-burst 2-furlong claiming dash dominated by two statistically elite horses — but the pace will be absolutely blistering and anything can happen when the race is over in seconds.

win2Determined LoveML 7/5

Determined Love (2) is the standout here with a 89.42 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 36% career win rate — by far the best winning percentage in this field. Trainer Dave Treharne and jockey Luis Alberto Batista combine for what looks like a confident, well-placed runner. At 7/5, you're not getting a gift price, but a horse closing in on a 40% win rate in claiming company deserves to be the heavy favorite.

place3Miss NuckolsML 4/1

Miss Nuckols (3) is the clear second choice at an 80.10 rating and a respectable 26% career win rate. Trainer Claudie Marshall Godsey Jr. keeps this filly competitive, and Ricardo Barrios has the mount at a 4/1 morning line that represents genuine place value. In a race this short, her profile fits neatly into exacta and place coverage behind Determined Love.

show6Dolce VeloceML 9/2

Dolce Veloce (6) brings a 63.09 rating and a 21% career win rate — matching Can She Scoot on that metric but rating out meaningfully higher. Trainer Melinda K. Sanders sends her out at 9/2 with Kevin Gonzalez in the irons, a workmanlike combo for this level. She's a strong show candidate and an interesting exacta wheel underneath the top two.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open 14-horse turf starter optional claiming field where three horses are bunched between 81 and 88 in the ratings — separation at the top is narrow enough that the pace scenario could decide everything.

win8SisyphusML 3/1

Sisyphus (8) earns our top spot with an 87.08 rating and one of the strongest profiles in this field — a 22% career win rate that ranks among the best of the top-rated horses. Trainer Adam King sends him out at 3/1 morning line with Luis Alberto Batista aboard, a jockey who also rides Old Flag — a split that bears watching, but Batista's primary assignment here is the edge. On turf at 7.5 furlongs, Sisyphus has the class and the numbers to take this field apart.

place14Royal SaluteML 5/2

Royal Salute (14) rates second in the field at 85.89 with a 54 average speed figure that matches the leaders. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini, who also has Valentine Bug in this race, puts Charle Oliveros aboard at 5/2 — the second-shortest price on the board. A 13% career win rate is modest, but this horse's raw ratings suggest the winning has been there in quality efforts even without the trips to the winner's circle.

show12Old FlagML 3/1

Old Flag (12) posts an 81.70 rating, the third-best in the field, with a 54 average speed and 16% career win rate. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva is a familiar name on this card, and Luis Alberto Batista also catches this ride — giving Batista two top horses to sort out. At 3/1, Old Flag is priced like a co-favorite and rounds out a strong superfecta top four nicely.

The three free races today span early maiden action through a starter optional claiming route, giving you a real cross-section of the card. Big Notion opens things up in Race 1 on a rain-affected dirt strip — our rating of 89.12 puts him clear of the field, and maiden claimers on wet tracks tend to reward horses with clean running style. In Race 2, Determined Love draws in at 7/5 on the morning line for the short 2-furlong sprint, and with an 89.42 TrackWiz rating she's the top-ranked horse on the entire card. Don't overlook Race 3's turf route, where Sisyphus at 3/1 morning line offers real value — a 87.08 rating in a starter optional claiming field is the kind of edge we look for.

The wet weather is the connecting thread across all three free picks. If the dirt is playing toward closers as the day unfolds, that's worth noting for your Race 2 pace read. And if Race 3 stays on the turf, a softer grass surface can be a genuine equalizer — horses with European-style turf breeding often appreciate a bit of give underfoot.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Allowance · 7 fur · Turf

A turf allowance with a 12-horse field spread wide on the ratings scale — El Kozan sits atop the TrackWiz numbers, but Sonny's Prize brings a career win rate that screams 'live horse' at a competitive price.

win1El KozanML 4/1

El Kozan (1) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and posts a 54 average speed figure on turf — competitive at this allowance level. Trainer Alexis Cordero-Lopez has Luis Negron in the irons, and while the 4/1 morning line doesn't scream value, the ratings edge is legitimate. A 7% career win rate is the one concern — this horse hasn't always converted his talent into wins — but our model sees him as the most likely winner in the field.

place2Sonny's PrizeML 3/1

Sonny's Prize (2) is impossible to overlook with a 33% career win rate — best in the field by a wide margin — paired with a 79.18 rating and 53 average speed. Trainer Eric R. Reed puts Bailey Weatherly aboard at 3/1, and a horse that wins a third of his races is always dangerous, especially on turf at seven furlongs where experience and class matter. This is the place horse who could easily beat our win pick outright.

show12Mr BusinessML 7/1

Mr Business (12) rates third-best in the field at 57.54 with an 8% career win rate and 53 average speed. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini sends him out at 7/1 with Brandon Tapara up — a juicy show price if the top two run their races. He's not a horse to key in exotics, but as a show hedge in a full 12-horse turf field, the value is real at that morning line.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

Three horses are stacked between 73 and 81 in the ratings in this turf starter optional claiming field — Snappin Buttons is the favorite, but New Age Bad Girl at 12/1 offers a compelling value angle.

win11Snappin ButtonsML 8/5

Snappin Buttons (11) leads the field with an 80.51 TrackWiz rating and a 31% career win rate — that win percentage is the best among the top-rated horses and speaks to a horse who knows how to finish the job. Trainer Juan C. Vazquez keeps Luis Negron in the irons, a partnership that's well-represented on this card. The 8/5 morning line makes Snappin Buttons the clear public choice, and our analysis agrees — this is the most complete package in the field.

place10Canadian BearML 3/1

Canadian Bear (10) sits at 77.03 in the ratings with a 24% career win rate and a 52 average speed figure on turf. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini, who runs multiple horses today, puts Rocco Bowen aboard at 3/1 — a strong jockey for this surface. Canadian Bear profiles as the type of horse who runs well without winning, making him an ideal place play in a field where Snappin Buttons looks tough to beat.

show1New Age Bad GirlML 12/1

New Age Bad Girl (1) is our show pick at a big 12/1 morning line despite carrying a respectable 73.96 rating — third-best in the field. She brings a 20% career win rate and the top average speed figure in the race at 55, which is a notable edge on a turf sprint. Trainer Shane Meyers pairs with Alexander Chavez, and at that price, including her in exotics as a show or third-leg option is a high-value play worth making.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A 9-horse dirt claiming field where the top three TrackWiz ratings are clustered tightly in the 79-84 range — the pace scenario on this six-furlong track will be critical, and Todo Fino's 50% career win rate is a number that jumps off the page.

win5Mighty MoML 5/1

Mighty Mo (5) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 with an 18% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure — the same speed as the top contenders but with a stronger overall rating. Trainer Juan C. Vazquez keeps Luis Negron up, a duo that appears throughout this card with consistent results. At 5/1 on the morning line, Mighty Mo offers solid value for the highest-rated horse in the field, and our analysis has him as the one to beat.

place4Mischief WarriorML 6/1

Mischief Warrior (4) rates 82.12 with a 54 average speed figure and an 8% career win rate. Trainer Amy Albright sends him out at 6/1 with Luis Alberto Batista — a top jock on this card — which gives Mischief Warrior a legitimate shot at hitting the board. The career win rate is modest, but the raw ratings and the quality of the ride suggest this horse is capable of outrunning that number on the right day.

show8Todo FinoML 3/1

Todo Fino (8) brings the most jaw-dropping stat in the race: a 50% career win rate that dwarfs everyone else in the field. The 79.49 rating and 55 average speed — the best speed figure in the field — back up that number. Trainer Alysha Robillard sends him out at 3/1 with Norberto Arroyo Jr. aboard, and if the pace sets up right, this horse could easily outrun our show prediction and steal the race outright.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Bien Fresa and I'm Kidding are separated by nearly seven points in the TrackWiz ratings and hold a clear edge over the field — but the 2/1 favorite is the public's choice while our analysis flips the script.

win5Bien FresaML 5/1

Bien Fresa (5) tops the field with an 84.17 rating — the exact same number as Mighty Mo in Race 6 — and backs it up with a 20% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure. Trainer Eric R. Reed gets Charle Oliveros in the irons at 5/1, which represents genuine value over the morning-line favorite in this spot. In a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint, a horse with this combination of ratings, speed, and a double-digit win rate is a legitimate best bet.

place6I'm KiddingML 2/1

I'm Kidding (6) comes in as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a strong 77.45 rating — second-best in the field — though the 5% career win rate is a red flag worth acknowledging. Trainer Juan C. Vazquez keeps Luis Negron aboard, and there may be a gap between what this horse is capable of and what the record shows. Our analysis lands him here as a place play: talented enough to hit the board, but a win at a 5% rate against a higher-rated rival is harder to project.

show1La NetoML 4/1

La Neto (1) posts a 66.71 TrackWiz rating and a 10% career win rate with a 52 average speed — comfortably third in the field by the numbers. Trainer Francisco Ramos has Luis Tapara up at 4/1, and from the rail, La Neto has the benefit of a clean break in a sprint. At that morning line, this is a horse worth including in exactas and trifectas as the third piece of the puzzle.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Cost Basis dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this 9-horse dirt claiming mile, but Julie's Ferrari at 8/1 is a sneaky place threat and Stone's Throw at 10/1 offers genuine show value in a wide-open framing race.

win9Cost BasisML 3/1

Cost Basis (9) is the class of the field with an 86.06 TrackWiz rating — more than six points clear of the next rival — and a 53 average speed figure. Trainer Robert S. Scallan puts Bailey Weatherly on at 3/1, a solid betting favorite's price for the highest-rated horse. A 14% career win rate won't blow anyone away, but the ratings gap here is real, and this is the type of clean top-pick situation our analysis loves to see.

place5Julie's FerrariML 8/1

Julie's Ferrari (5) rates 79.79 — second-best in the field — with a 15% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure. Trainer Gary Welsh pairs with Deshawn L. Parker at 8/1 on the morning line, which is a legitimately generous price for the second-ranked horse by our model. If Cost Basis gets into any trouble or the pace doesn't set up, Julie's Ferrari is right there to swoop in.

show6Stone's ThrowML 10/1

Stone's Throw (6) earns the show slot with a 66.65 rating — third in the field — a 17% career win rate, and a 54 average speed figure. Trainer Virginia Demczyk and Ricardo Barrios team up at 10/1, which is a very attractive exotics price for a horse that rates this cleanly. Stone's Throw profiles as the kind of quietly reliable runner who consistently finds the board without grabbing headlines, and at double-digits, that's exactly the show horse you want in your tickets.

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Bottom line: rain at Mountaineer makes today's card unpredictable in the best possible way — there's value to be found if you're tracking the surface and adjusting. Determined Love and Big Notion are the free-race headliners, and Cost Basis is the premium pick we're most confident in as the card closes out. Subscribers get pace projections, exotic tickets, and the full-card edge — check out TrackWiz Premium if you want everything. Good luck out there, and watch that turf situation closely before you finalize anything.

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