Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — June 22, 2026
It's a wet one at Mountaineer Park today. Rain is falling and temperatures are sitting at 67°F, which means the dirt is going to play heavy and the turf courses could get soft in a hurry. Any time the weather gets involved like this, you've got to throw out some of your default assumptions and think carefully about which horses genuinely like to run through the slop — and which ones are going to be miserable out there.
We've got an 8-race card on tap, mixing Maiden Special Weight sprints with a string of Claiming routes and a couple of turf tests that may or may not even go off on the grass depending on how conditions develop. The surface calls are worth watching right up until post time.
TrackWiz analysis has identified strong top picks across all 8 races, with ratings ranging from the low 84s up to an 88.54 on Priority Lane in Race 6 — the highest-rated horse on the entire card. There's plenty to work with today, and the wet conditions actually open the door for some value plays that the crowd might sleep on.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf
A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf sees two standout TrackWiz ratings clustered at the top, but the morning line tells a different story — the public is leaning toward the 8/5 shot while our model favors the 3/1.
The Groom's Jul earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08, edging out the morning-line favorite in our model despite going off at 3/1. Trainer Devan Ewell Sr. also saddles Midnight Stroller in this same race, giving the barn a strong two-horse presence on the turf. With an average speed figure of 51 matching the field average, the edge here is in overall profile and race shape — if jockey Agustin Bracho can find a clean trip on the short five-furlong turf sprint, this one has the tools to wire or run down whoever goes to the front.
All Roads to Denis is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.68, making this a legitimate contender even if our model slots it just behind The Groom's Jul. Jockey Elijah Greenidge gets the call for trainer Angelo G. Jackson, and an average speed figure of 52 — tied for the field's best — suggests this horse has the raw speed to hit the board in a maiden turf sprint. At 8/5, the value isn't overwhelming, but it's a safe place target in a volatile maiden field.
Midnight Stroller at 8/1 on the morning line is the standout value play in exotics here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 76.98 — third-best in the field and a meaningful gap above the mid-pack horses. Trainer Devan Ewell Sr. has two bullets in this race, and stable confidence is worth noting when a barn doubles up. For tri and superfecta construction, Midnight Stroller under Jorge A. Monserrate Jr. deserves a spot at a juicy price.
Race 2
Claiming · 7 fur · Turf
A sprawling 13-horse turf claiming field at seven furlongs sets up as a pace puzzle, but one horse's TrackWiz rating stands a full tier above the rest — the question is whether the morning line reflects that edge.
Remerton draws the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and posts the top average speed figure at 54 — a tick faster than anything else in this field. At 3/1 on the morning line, trainer Juan Pablo Silva sends out a horse that our model clearly favors, and jockey Luis Negron is a sharp booking for a horse with this kind of profile. The seven-furlong turf distance rewards horses that can sustain pace, and Remerton's speed figure advantage sets this one up nicely to be involved late.
Toast to Coast at 6/1 morning line represents real value in the place spot, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 71.46 that ranks fifth in the field but comes with a 13% career win rate that speaks to consistency. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini and jockey Brandon Whitacre team up here, and at a price well above the co-favorites, there's meaningful overlay potential if this horse runs to its number. In a field this large, a horse with solid ratings and a double-digit morning line is exactly the type to target in exacta and trifecta keys.
Versatile slots in at 9/2 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 71.05 and an average speed figure of 53 — competitive figures in a wide field. Trainer Shane M. Spiess sends this one out with an 11% career win rate, nothing flashy but serviceable, and the price is fair for show coverage. In a 13-horse field on turf, horses with consistent speed figures tend to find the board more often than the chaos-prone longshots.
Race 3
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
The top of this dirt claiming field is genuinely competitive with four horses bunched tightly in the TrackWiz ratings — but the 5/1 morning line on our top pick signals there may be some value hiding in plain sight.
Alfie Solomons leads our TrackWiz model with an 84.17 rating and posts an average speed figure of 53, consistent with the top horses in this field. Trainer Crystal Richison has this one going off at 5/1 on the morning line, which feels generous given where the model lands, and jockey Kevin Gonzalez gets the call on a horse that figures to be within striking distance throughout the 5½-furlong dirt trip. A 14% career win rate is modest but the speed and ratings edge is what drives this selection.
Post Facto is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and backs it up with a TrackWiz rating of 81.9 — second-best in the field — along with a strong 26% career win rate, best among the top contenders. Trainer/jockey combo Alejandro Gomez doing double duty here is an angle worth noting; when a trainer is confident enough to put himself up, that's a form of stable conviction. The speed figure of 52 is a touch below Alfie Solomons, which is why we slot Post Facto second, but this is a legitimate win threat and a must-use in your exotics.
Jedi's Way at 4/1 rounds out our top three with a TrackWiz rating of 78.81 and a career win rate of 20% — the second-highest among the top contenders in this spot. Ricardo Barrios aboard for trainer Denis Cluley gives this one a quality rider, and an average speed of 53 matches the top of the field. For trifecta players, Jedi's Way is a flexible piece that could easily finish anywhere in the top three.
Our three free picks today span the early part of the card and each one comes with its own story. In the opener, a 5-furlong turf Maiden Special Weight, The Groom's Jul draws our top rating and opens at a fair 3/1 on the morning line — though keep an eye on whether that turf course holds up under the rain before you commit. Race 2 shifts to 7 furlongs on the turf, where Remerton carries an identical 87.08 TrackWiz rating and the same 3/1 price. Then in Race 3 we're back on the dirt for a 5½-furlong Claiming sprint, and that's where Alfie Solomons jumps out as a 5/1 morning line shot worth circling — that price suggests the crowd may be underestimating him, and on a wet track where speed figures can get scrambled, overlays like this are exactly what you want to be hunting.
The common thread across these three free picks? All of them figure to benefit from a clear read on pace — none of these are deep-closer lotto tickets. They're horses our model likes at the numbers, in conditions where the right tactical position early can be the difference between a win photo and an also-ran.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: Mountaineer's wet card today offers real opportunity for the prepared bettor. The Groom's Jul, Remerton, and Alfie Solomons headline our free analysis, and Priority Lane stands out as the day's marquee selection at the top of our ratings. For pace projections, exotic breakdowns, and the full 8-race write-up, subscribers can access everything at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — and watch those surface reports before you fire.