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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — September 6, 2026

September 6, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

Labor Day weekend closes out at Monmouth Park on a wet Sunday, with rain falling and temperatures settling in around 73°F. The track conditions are going to be a major factor today — especially for the five turf races on the card. Keep a close eye on any late surface changes; if the turf gets pulled and races are moved to the main track, the entire complexion of those fields can flip in an instant.

Eight races are on the program, ranging from maiden specials to a stakes showdown on the grass, and TrackWiz analysis has combed through every angle on the card. Three races are fully open to all readers — no subscription required. The other five are where the real depth is, including a turf stakes mile that should be the marquee event of the afternoon.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf with a field full of first-timers and lightly-raced horses — form is thin across the board, but one runner's TrackWiz rating stands well above the rest.

win8ScabiosaML 9/2

Scabiosa (No. 8) is the clear top choice here on ratings alone, posting a TrackWiz score of 81.52 — more than 25 points clear of the next closest rival. That kind of separation in a maiden field on the turf is hard to ignore, and trainer Hugo O. Padilla sends her out with jockey Abner Adorno at a very playable 9/2 morning line. The 5-furlong turf distance favors quick, efficient runners, and Scabiosa's average speed figure of 55 ties her near the top of the field. In a race this murky, backing the horse with the biggest ratings edge is the prudent play.

place4Love YourzML 7/2

Love Yourz (No. 4) carries the top morning-line favoritism at 7/2 and backs it up with a solid TrackWiz rating of 55.83 — second-best in the field. Trainer Miguel Clement puts Luis Raul Rivera, Jr. in the irons, a reliable combination on the Monmouth turf. Her average speed figure of 54 is right in the mix, and she profiles as the type who could track a fast pace and finish strong.

show10Fun Toph FunML 9/2

Fun Toph Fun (No. 10) ties for the best average speed figure in the field at 55 and checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 54.17, making her a solid exotic inclusion at 9/2. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila is no stranger to finding spots for his horses at Monmouth, and Charlie Marquez gets the call. In a maiden turf sprint where speed figures matter, she's got enough to hit the board.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A starter allowance on the dirt going one mile where one horse's ratings and win percentage tower over a competitive but clearly tiered field.

win3Surprise PackageML 5/2

Surprise Package (No. 3) is the standout here with a dominant TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — the highest in the field by a solid margin — and an eye-catching career win rate of 33%. That kind of winning consistency is rare in a starter allowance, and trainer Kathleen O'Connell puts Luis Raul Rivera, Jr. aboard at just 5/2 on the morning line. Her average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the field, meaning she wins this on class and efficiency, not just raw speed. Lay this one down as your Race 2 best bet.

place5RerallyML 3/1

Rerally (No. 5) is a legitimate threat at 3/1 with a career win rate of 23% and a TrackWiz rating of 77 — second only to Surprise Package in this field. Trainer Wayne Potts puts Jose Antonio Gomez up, and at a mile on the dirt, a horse with that kind of win percentage knows how to close the deal. She's the logical exacta partner to the top selection.

show2DenyingML 2/1

Denying (No. 2) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, and while our ratings peg her third in the hierarchy, she's far from a throwaway. A TrackWiz score of 69.92 and an average speed figure of 53 put her right in contention, and Jose C. Ferrer is a capable hand around one turn of Monmouth dirt. If Surprise Package and Rerally have any issues, Denying is positioned to sneak into the exacta or trifecta.

Race 3

5:46 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming turf sprint that features a legitimate pace duel brewing between early speed types, setting up nicely for a closer — and one horse's TrackWiz rating is doing a lot of the heavy lifting at a value price.

win2Battle LouML 5/1

Battle Lou (No. 2) earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at an impressive 84.17, and that number does the talking in a maiden claiming event on the Monmouth turf. What's interesting here is that the 5/1 morning line represents genuine value — trainer Ruperto A. Perez and jockey Andy Hernandez bring solid local connections. The average speed figure of 53 is competitive in this spot, and with several speed horses likely to engage early, Battle Lou should benefit from a genuine pace to run at over 5.5 furlongs.

place5Royal MeritML 9/2

Royal Merit (No. 5) is a logical play at 9/2 with a TrackWiz rating of 75.80 and an average speed figure of 54 — both numbers holding up well against the field. Trainer Michael Dini keeps Francisco Martinez in the saddle, and this filly profiles as one who can stalk the early pace scenario and grind out a placing. She's the clear second choice on our numbers.

show1Mr. Travelin' ManML 7/2

Mr. Travelin' Man (No. 1) holds a TrackWiz rating of 69.99 and the top average speed figure in the race at 57 — that's a meaningful edge in raw pace terms. Trainer Victor Barboza, Jr. puts the rail post to work with Rivera, Jr. up, and inside posts at Monmouth's turf course can be an asset. If the front-runners set a genuine clip, his speed figures suggest he could be right there at the finish.

The three free races today span two surfaces and three very different race types, which is what makes them a good cross-section of the card. In Race 1, Scabiosa draws our attention in a maiden special weight sprint on the turf at 9/2 on the morning line — solid value if the grass is still good enough to run. Race 2 switches to the main track for a starter allowance mile, where Surprise Package comes in with the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 87.81 — a number that commands respect in this company. And in Race 3, Battle Lou at 5/1 gives us a legitimate price play in a maiden claiming sprint on the turf.

With rain in the mix, the dirt track could be playing wet and tiring — something that may favor closers with stamina over pure speed. Watch the early results closely to get a read on how the bias is developing before you commit deeper in the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:17 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden claiming dirt sprint has a cluster of closely-matched speed figures near the top, but TrackWiz ratings carve out a clear one-two hierarchy that separates the contenders from the pretenders.

win7Garden GalML 9/2

Garden Gal (No. 7) tops our TrackWiz ratings in this race at 70.69 and comes in at a very attractive 9/2 morning line — there's genuine value here versus the oddsboard. Trainer Joan Milne sends her out with Edwin Gonzalez, a jockey who knows his way around Monmouth Park. Her average speed figure of 53 is respectable in a maiden claiming sprint, and with the pace potentially contested between a few speed-favoring runners, she could get a ground-saving trip from the outside.

place4Cuddy's LuckyML 3/1

Cuddy's Lucky (No. 4) is the TrackWiz runner-up in this field at 68.14 and draws the Kelly J. Breen barn — one of Monmouth's more respected outfits. Jose C. Ferrer gets the mount, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the crowd is on her; our numbers actually agree that she belongs near the top. Her speed figure of 54 edges out Garden Gal slightly, so if the pace shapes up favorably from the inside, she could reverse our top two.

show2U Dirty DogML 6/1

U Dirty Dog (No. 2) checks in third on our TrackWiz ratings at 59.02 with an average speed figure of 54 that's right in line with the top two. The 6/1 morning line makes her an interesting exotics play in a race where the top of the field is bunched. Trainer Chuck Spina keeps Christian Maragh in the irons, and in a first-level maiden claiming sprint, deeper prices like this can sneak onto the board when the favorites get into a speed duel.

Race 5

6:48 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

Stakes company on the Monmouth turf mile pits a horse with a dominant TrackWiz rating against some lightly-used but dangerous rivals — the pace scenario is legitimate, and the morning line is wide open enough to spark some real wagering action.

win1J J Zo ZoML 4/1

J J Zo Zo (No. 1) holds the top TrackWiz rating in this stakes field at 85.62 and brings a career win percentage of 28% — the kind of winning consistency you want when stepping into stakes company. Trainer Cesar Alcala sends out Jorge A. Vargas, Jr., who has a strong feel for the Monmouth turf. The 4/1 morning line is fair value given the rating edge, and an average speed figure of 54 keeps him right in the thick of the pace scenario at a mile on the lawn.

place5Souper ForcesML 5/2

Souper Forces (No. 5) is the most compelling runner-up in this field — a 60% career win rate is remarkable by any measure, and the TrackWiz rating of 75.11 backs up the confidence trainer Michael J. Trombetta clearly has in this horse. Charlie Marquez gets the call from post 5, and the average speed figure of 56 is the best in the race. At 5/2, she might not be the juiciest price, but that win percentage makes her a must-use in any multirace sequence.

show6SpellcastML 6/1

Spellcast (No. 6) rounds out our top three here with a TrackWiz rating of 74.24 and an impressive 45% career win rate — this horse finishes in the money more often than not. Rocco Bowen pilots for trainer Timothy E. Hamm at 6/1, which makes Spellcast one of the better value plays on the card at a stakes level. In turf routes where pace can get complicated, a proven winner at this percentage is a smart exotic anchor.

Race 6

7:19 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint on the dirt where the morning-line favorite doesn't match up to our top-rated horse — creating a potential overlay situation and an interesting wagering angle.

win3Complex MusicML 7/2

Complex Music (No. 3) leads all runners in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — well ahead of the 2/1 morning-line favorite — and does so at a fair 7/2 price. Trainer Pompeyo Gomez gets Jorge Luis Gonzalez in the irons, and at 6 furlongs on the Monmouth dirt, this is a sharp spot for a horse with a 12% career win rate that actually understates the quality of his recent work. His average speed figure of 55 matches the field's best, meaning he's not just a ratings play — the raw numbers back it up.

place2AmberjackML 3/2

Amberjack (No. 2) is the morning-line favorite at 3/2 and holds a TrackWiz rating of 79.56 along with a 25% career win rate — so the crowd isn't wrong to like him, just a bit enthusiastic on the price. Trainer Jorge Delgado puts Daniel Centeno aboard, and the average speed figure of 55 keeps Amberjack squarely competitive. If Complex Music gets to the front, Amberjack's natural closing style could set up a clean place finish.

show4Empire SkyML 7/2

Empire Sky (No. 4) rounds out the TrackWiz top three at 78.85 with an average speed figure of 55 and a 14% career win rate that's respectable in this allowance company. Trainer John T. Kirby teams with Edwin Gonzalez, and the 7/2 morning line means you're getting Empire Sky at the same price as our top pick — that's a nice hedge in the exotics. A horse this close to the top ratings in an allowance optional claiming field is a trifecta must-use.

Race 7

7:51 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 12-horse allowance optional claiming field on the turf mile with a wide range of talent levels — two horses separate themselves on our ratings, and a mid-price runner could sneak into the board at a profitable number.

win11One Fine WineML 4/1

One Fine Wine (No. 11) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this packed field at 85.62 and brings a 13% career win rate with an average speed figure of 55 — the best in the field. Trainer Patrick B. McBurney sends out Edwin Gonzalez, who is comfortable in turf route races at Monmouth. At 4/1 on the morning line, One Fine Wine represents solid value given the ratings advantage, and the outside post shouldn't be a major concern in a field this size going a mile on the grass.

place12OmahamoiselleML 3/1

Omahamoiselle (No. 12) is the logical partner at 3/1, posting a TrackWiz rating of 79.30 and a 14% career win rate. Chantal Sutherland takes the mount for trainer Benjamin W. Perkins, Jr. — a combination that has produced results on the Monmouth turf. Her average speed figure of 54 is right in the flow of the pace, and in a race this wide, a horse with a proven profile like hers is exactly the type you want underneath in exactas and trifectas.

show6Golden RingML 6/1

Golden Ring (No. 6) is the show pick here at 6/1 morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 66.36 — third in this field — and an average speed figure of 53. Trainer Chelsea Sims Rabadan keeps Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. aboard, and the 7% career win rate doesn't jump off the page, but this is an allowance optional claiming turf route where tactical positioning matters as much as raw numbers. At 6/1, Golden Ring is a smart trifecta inclusion without breaking the bank.

Race 8

8:23 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A claiming turf sprint at 5.5 furlongs that boils down to a battle between the morning-line favorite and two legitimate challengers — the top three on our ratings are separated by less than 5 points, making this a trifecta-friendly race.

win8Shakin LooseML 2/1

Shakin Loose (No. 8) leads our TrackWiz ratings for this race at 86.73 — the top mark on the card for Race 8 — and backs it with a 15% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56. Trainer Wayne Potts puts Jose C. Ferrer up, a sharp combination that tends to show up ready to run at Monmouth. The 2/1 morning line makes Shakin Loose the public's choice as well, so there's no betting against the crowd here — this is a deserving favorite with the numbers to match.

place6Lucky TwistML 6/1

Lucky Twist (No. 6) is where the real value lies in this race at 6/1 morning line, despite holding a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — just 4 points off the top. A career win rate of 18% and an average speed figure of 56 (tied for best in the race) give trainer Michael Dini's runner a legitimate shot at upsetting the favorite. Francisco Martinez takes the mount, and if Shakin Loose gets into any trouble from the far outside, Lucky Twist is positioned to pounce.

show7Identity CrisisML 6/1

Identity Crisis (No. 7) is just a whisker behind Lucky Twist on our ratings at 81.98 and also sports an average speed figure of 56 along with a 20% career win rate — actually the best winning percentage among our top three. Kelly J. Breen is a respected Monmouth trainer, and Charlie Marquez knows exactly what to do with a closer in a turf sprint. The 6/1 morning line makes Identity Crisis an outstanding trifecta inclusion in what figures to be a closely-run affair.

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A rainy Sunday at Monmouth means the card is alive with surface questions and pace scenarios that shift by the race. Our top free plays — Scabiosa, Surprise Package, and Battle Lou — give you a solid foundation to work from. For the full eight-race breakdown including the stakes and our exotic wager tickets, subscribers can access everything at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck today — and watch that turf.

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