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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — August 7, 2026

August 7, 20266 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

This card ran on August 7, 2026.

Best bets at Monmouth Park, August 7, 2026

Race 14OlatzML 3/12:00 PM EDT

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It's a warm Friday at the Jersey Shore — 86°F and partly cloudy — and Monmouth Park has a tight six-race card that punches above its weight. Three of those races are run on the turf, which should be playing firm and fast in these summer conditions, and the dirt strip has been consistent all week. Not a marathon day, but a focused one, and focused cards are where sharp bettors thrive.

We've got a mix of maiden events, a claiming race with a legitimate longshot angle, a starter handicap, and a pair of upper-tier spots that should produce some competitive finish photos. TrackWiz analysis has identified strong plays across the board — including a 6/1 morning-line shot in Race 3 that we think is being seriously underestimated by the market.

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Race 1

2:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden turf route where the morning-line favorite wears the Chad Brown barn's second colors, but TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story — the price horse at the top of our rankings is worth a long look.

win4OlatzML 3/1

Olatz (#4) sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08, a clear separation from the rest of this maiden field despite carrying 3/1 morning-line odds. Her average speed figure of 52 may lag behind some rivals on paper, but the overall composite rating suggests she's hiding something the raw numbers don't fully capture. Trainer Lindsay Schultz puts her in a spot to improve, and Jose C. Ferrer has the turf experience to get the best out of her over the 1 1/16-mile trip. In a maiden turf route where so much depends on tactical positioning, Olatz looks like the most complete package in the field.

place1AlibiML 5/2

Alibi (#1) is the Chad Brown second-string entry at 5/2 on the morning line, and she carries a respectable TrackWiz rating of 75.93 — second-best in the field. Edwin Gonzalez gets the call, and the Brown barn's turf operation is one of the best in the country. If she breaks cleanly and gets any cover in what could be a pace-honest race, she's a very logical place finisher.

show3BlackfinML 6/5

Blackfin (#3) is the Chad Brown stable's morning-line favorite at 6/5, and while her TrackWiz rating of 59.67 doesn't match the chalk hype, she ties Alibi and Best Not Miss with the field's top average speed figure of 54. The Brown-Gomez combination on turf is always formidable, and even if she can't hold off the top two, she has the pedigree and connections to hit the board. Exotics players should absolutely use her underneath.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

2:38 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on dirt where the pace figures to be honest, and the top TrackWiz-rated horse is also the one posting the field's best average speed figure — a rare alignment worth trusting.

win5JeremiahtwentynineML 5/2

Jeremiahtwentynine (#5) earns our top rating in this maiden claiming field at 74.96 and backs it up with the best average speed figure on the board at 55 — a full point clear of the closest rival. Chantal Sutherland picks up the mount and is well-acquainted with Monmouth's dirt strip. At 5/2 on the morning line in a race where speed figures are the great equalizer, this is a horse who looks like the class of the field on multiple analytical angles.

place1SkyrushML 2/1

Skyrush (#1) carries a 72.47 TrackWiz rating — barely a tick behind our top pick — and draws the rail under Christian Maragh for trainer Silvino Ramirez, who knows this track extremely well. The 2/1 morning line makes him the crowd's mild preference, and it's easy to see why. At 6 furlongs, a clean break from the inside post could put him on the lead early, and he has enough raw ability to earn a piece if Jeremiahtwentynine gets to him late.

show4Mighty MiloML 9/5

Mighty Milo (#4) is the morning-line second choice at 9/5 and posts a solid 58.67 rating, but it's the Edwin Gonzalez booking that nudges him into the show slot. Gonzalez has been one of the busier and more effective riders at this Monmouth meet, and trainer Juan Carlos Avila has a knack for keeping horses competitive in this class range. He may not have the ceiling of the top two, but he's worth covering in tri and super bets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free previews cover Races 1, 2, and 3 — and together they tell an interesting story about today's conditions. On the turf in Race 1, Olatz opens at 3/1 and carries our top rating of 87.08 for the maiden special weight mile and a sixteenth. Turf maidens at this distance can be tricky reads, but Olatz's profile stands out in a field we think is more open than it looks on paper.

On the dirt, Jeremiahtwentynine draws our top mark in the Race 2 six-furlong maiden claimer and comes in as the morning-line favorite at 5/2. Then in Race 3, keep a close eye on Crypto Man — a 6/1 morning-line price in the claiming mile and a sixteenth on dirt. That 82.71 TrackWiz rating quietly leads a field we've been tracking, and the class and pace setup both set up in his favor. Value like this doesn't always last to post time.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

3:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A wide-open claiming route on dirt with three horses separated by just 2.4 rating points at the top — the pace scenario will be everything here, and the value column is loaded.

win7Crypto ManML 6/1

Crypto Man (#7) leads all TrackWiz ratings in this field at 82.71 despite carrying 6/1 morning-line odds, making him our clear best-value win pick. Pedro L. Cotto Jr. gets the mount and brings strong local form. His 9% career win rate might not jump off the page, but in a claiming route where the pace figures to be contested, a closer profile could be exactly what the race sets up for — and TrackWiz analysis says he's the most capable horse in here.

place5Fluff the PillowML 4/1

Fluff the Pillow (#5) is the second-highest rated horse in the race at 81.04, and Chantal Sutherland in the irons adds considerable upside. Her 12% career win rate is right in line with this class, and trainer Joann Bertone has her pointing toward a good performance. At 4/1 morning line she offers real value for a horse that profiles as a genuine contender — if Crypto Man gets stuck in traffic, this filly will be right there to capitalize.

show4FromanothamuthaML 5/2

Fromanothamutha (#4) rounds out a tightly bunched top trio with a 80.31 rating and a 13% career win percentage that puts her in strong company. Jean Aguilar picks up a live mount here for trainer Miguel Penaloza, and at 5/2 she'll be well-backed by the public. As the morning-line third choice with metrics that closely mirror our top two picks, she's a must-use in the exacta and trifecta — this race could easily come back with these three in any order.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

3:44 PM EDT

Starter Handicap · 1 1/8 mi · Turf

A turf starter handicap at 1 1/8 miles where one horse stands out from the pack statistically, but a lightly-exposed runner near the bottom of the morning line presents a sneaky value angle worth flagging.

win3Two's a CrowdML 2/1

Two's a Crowd (#3) is the most compelling horse on the entire card through Race 4, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that leads all starters in this field by a comfortable margin. The 28% career win rate is elite for this level — that means nearly three out of every ten starts end in the winner's circle — and Edwin Gonzalez is dialed in at this meet. At 2/1 on the morning line she's not a steal, but the metrics justify making her the anchor of any multi-race wager.

place1Into ItML 8/1

Into It (#1) represents genuine value at 8/1 on the morning line with a 76.69 TrackWiz rating that places him squarely in the upper tier of this field. His 19% career win rate is respectable, and trainer Kelly J. Breen is a proven operator on turf at this level. Drawing the rail in a turf route can be a double-edged sword, but if Jose Antonio Gomez gets a ground-saving trip along the fence, Into It could sneak into the exacta at a price that rewards the patient bettor.

show9Admiral MoML 4/1

Admiral Mo (#9) is a fascinating piece of this puzzle — a 44% career win rate is the highest in the entire field by a massive margin, though it's worth noting that number can reflect a limited sample in favorable spots. His 74.54 TrackWiz rating and 4/1 morning line suggest the market respects him. Trainer Kelly J. Breen doubles up with Gomez in the barn, and that connections angle alongside raw win percentage makes Admiral Mo a smart show play and exotic anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 5

4:17 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint on dirt with a clear top-rated horse at a fair price, but the morning-line favorite carries a jaw-dropping 66% career win rate that demands attention.

win6Guapo AgainML 3/1

Guapo Again (#6) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and pairs that mark with a 24% career win rate that's perfectly in line with a horse running well at this level. Kelly J. Breen trains — one of the sharper outfits at the Monmouth meet — and Edwin Gonzalez rides off a strong book of business. At 3/1 morning line there's still value here, and the combination of our top rating plus a top-shelf trainer-jockey tandem makes Guapo Again the most confident win selection of the day.

place7TallmarML 2/1

Tallmar (#7) is the 2/1 morning-line choice and the crowd will be leaning hard, and honestly it's hard to argue — a 66% career win rate is extraordinary and the kind of number that reflects a horse who simply knows how to finish first. Jose C. Ferrer picks up the mount, and an average speed figure of 55 ties Complex Music for tops in the race. If Guapo Again gets shuffled back or faces adversity, Tallmar's class looks more than sufficient to clean up.

show4Complex MusicML 5/1

Complex Music (#4) is our show selection at 5/1 morning line and brings a legitimate case — that 55 average speed figure is tied for best in the field, and a 12% career win rate in allowance competition shows he belongs. Trainer Pompeyo Gomez is a familiar name at Monmouth, and Jorge Luis Gonzalez should be able to secure a stalking position from post 4. For trifecta and superfecta players, Complex Music at 5/1 underneath is a smart, cost-effective inclusion.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

4:47 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A ten-horse turf claiming mile with a wide spread of talent — a standout rating at the top, a deep closer to watch, and plenty of live exotics opportunities scattered throughout the field.

win7Only YouML 7/2

Only You (#7) leads this full field with a dominant 86.35 TrackWiz rating and earns the win nod at 7/2 morning-line odds in a field where the rating separation is meaningful. Edwin Gonzalez picks up a mount that looks like one of his best rides of the day for trainer Jorge Delgado. With an average speed figure of 53 that matches the core of the field, Only You's edge comes from overall form and the analytical edge our rating captures — she doesn't need a perfect trip, she just needs clear running.

place9Bee N DeeML 7/2

Bee N Dee (#9) draws into the place spot with a 69.29 rating and an interesting profile — a 9% career win rate in turf claiming company isn't flashy, but Jose C. Ferrer is a savvy turf rider who manages pace well over a mile. Trainer Wayne Potts keeps this one competitive, and at 7/2 morning line Bee N Dee offers place value in a wide-open race. Her average speed figure of 51 is a tick below the field leaders, but in a tactical mile, ground-saving position can more than offset raw speed.

show8Madam ProsecutorML 4/1

Madam Prosecutor (#8) is our show selection at 4/1 and brings a respectable 68.75 TrackWiz rating in what is essentially a four-horse cluster from #8 through #10 at the top of the field. Chantal Sutherland is one of the better turf riders in the barn, and trainer Kathleen O'Connell — who also saddles Ronda World — clearly has multiple live horses in here. The 7% career win rate signals a horse who runs well without always converting, which is exactly the profile you want in your trifecta show slot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Today's Monmouth card is short but loaded with opportunity — headlined by a turf-heavy early sequence, a standout longshot angle in Race 3 with Crypto Man, and three premium races that reward the deeper dive. Free picks for Races 1–3 are live now. For the full card including pace projections, exotic ticket breakdowns, and our complete analysis of Races 4–6, unlock TrackWiz premium and make sure you're ready before first post.

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