Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — August 7, 2026
It's a warm Friday at the Jersey Shore — 86°F and partly cloudy — and Monmouth Park has a tight six-race card that punches above its weight. Three of those races are run on the turf, which should be playing firm and fast in these summer conditions, and the dirt strip has been consistent all week. Not a marathon day, but a focused one, and focused cards are where sharp bettors thrive.
We've got a mix of maiden events, a claiming race with a legitimate longshot angle, a starter handicap, and a pair of upper-tier spots that should produce some competitive finish photos. TrackWiz analysis has identified strong plays across the board — including a 6/1 morning-line shot in Race 3 that we think is being seriously underestimated by the market.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf
A maiden turf route where the morning-line favorite wears the Chad Brown barn's second colors, but TrackWiz ratings tell a very different story — the price horse at the top of our rankings is worth a long look.
Olatz (#4) sits atop our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08, a clear separation from the rest of this maiden field despite carrying 3/1 morning-line odds. Her average speed figure of 52 may lag behind some rivals on paper, but the overall composite rating suggests she's hiding something the raw numbers don't fully capture. Trainer Lindsay Schultz puts her in a spot to improve, and Jose C. Ferrer has the turf experience to get the best out of her over the 1 1/16-mile trip. In a maiden turf route where so much depends on tactical positioning, Olatz looks like the most complete package in the field.
Alibi (#1) is the Chad Brown second-string entry at 5/2 on the morning line, and she carries a respectable TrackWiz rating of 75.93 — second-best in the field. Edwin Gonzalez gets the call, and the Brown barn's turf operation is one of the best in the country. If she breaks cleanly and gets any cover in what could be a pace-honest race, she's a very logical place finisher.
Blackfin (#3) is the Chad Brown stable's morning-line favorite at 6/5, and while her TrackWiz rating of 59.67 doesn't match the chalk hype, she ties Alibi and Best Not Miss with the field's top average speed figure of 54. The Brown-Gomez combination on turf is always formidable, and even if she can't hold off the top two, she has the pedigree and connections to hit the board. Exotics players should absolutely use her underneath.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A maiden claiming sprint on dirt where the pace figures to be honest, and the top TrackWiz-rated horse is also the one posting the field's best average speed figure — a rare alignment worth trusting.
Jeremiahtwentynine (#5) earns our top rating in this maiden claiming field at 74.96 and backs it up with the best average speed figure on the board at 55 — a full point clear of the closest rival. Chantal Sutherland picks up the mount and is well-acquainted with Monmouth's dirt strip. At 5/2 on the morning line in a race where speed figures are the great equalizer, this is a horse who looks like the class of the field on multiple analytical angles.
Skyrush (#1) carries a 72.47 TrackWiz rating — barely a tick behind our top pick — and draws the rail under Christian Maragh for trainer Silvino Ramirez, who knows this track extremely well. The 2/1 morning line makes him the crowd's mild preference, and it's easy to see why. At 6 furlongs, a clean break from the inside post could put him on the lead early, and he has enough raw ability to earn a piece if Jeremiahtwentynine gets to him late.
Mighty Milo (#4) is the morning-line second choice at 9/5 and posts a solid 58.67 rating, but it's the Edwin Gonzalez booking that nudges him into the show slot. Gonzalez has been one of the busier and more effective riders at this Monmouth meet, and trainer Juan Carlos Avila has a knack for keeping horses competitive in this class range. He may not have the ceiling of the top two, but he's worth covering in tri and super bets.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt
A wide-open claiming route on dirt with three horses separated by just 2.4 rating points at the top — the pace scenario will be everything here, and the value column is loaded.
Crypto Man (#7) leads all TrackWiz ratings in this field at 82.71 despite carrying 6/1 morning-line odds, making him our clear best-value win pick. Pedro L. Cotto Jr. gets the mount and brings strong local form. His 9% career win rate might not jump off the page, but in a claiming route where the pace figures to be contested, a closer profile could be exactly what the race sets up for — and TrackWiz analysis says he's the most capable horse in here.
Fluff the Pillow (#5) is the second-highest rated horse in the race at 81.04, and Chantal Sutherland in the irons adds considerable upside. Her 12% career win rate is right in line with this class, and trainer Joann Bertone has her pointing toward a good performance. At 4/1 morning line she offers real value for a horse that profiles as a genuine contender — if Crypto Man gets stuck in traffic, this filly will be right there to capitalize.
Fromanothamutha (#4) rounds out a tightly bunched top trio with a 80.31 rating and a 13% career win percentage that puts her in strong company. Jean Aguilar picks up a live mount here for trainer Miguel Penaloza, and at 5/2 she'll be well-backed by the public. As the morning-line third choice with metrics that closely mirror our top two picks, she's a must-use in the exacta and trifecta — this race could easily come back with these three in any order.
Our three free previews cover Races 1, 2, and 3 — and together they tell an interesting story about today's conditions. On the turf in Race 1, Olatz opens at 3/1 and carries our top rating of 87.08 for the maiden special weight mile and a sixteenth. Turf maidens at this distance can be tricky reads, but Olatz's profile stands out in a field we think is more open than it looks on paper.
On the dirt, Jeremiahtwentynine draws our top mark in the Race 2 six-furlong maiden claimer and comes in as the morning-line favorite at 5/2. Then in Race 3, keep a close eye on Crypto Man — a 6/1 morning-line price in the claiming mile and a sixteenth on dirt. That 82.71 TrackWiz rating quietly leads a field we've been tracking, and the class and pace setup both set up in his favor. Value like this doesn't always last to post time.
Full Card Analysis
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Today's Monmouth card is short but loaded with opportunity — headlined by a turf-heavy early sequence, a standout longshot angle in Race 3 with Crypto Man, and three premium races that reward the deeper dive. Free picks for Races 1–3 are live now. For the full card including pace projections, exotic ticket breakdowns, and our complete analysis of Races 4–6, unlock TrackWiz premium and make sure you're ready before first post.