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Mahoning Valley Race Course Picks & Predictions — November 12, 2026

November 12, 20268 racesAll Mahoning Valley Race Course picks

Best bets at Mahoning Valley Race Course today

Race 14Gray DayML 7/512:15 PM EST

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Gray Day is our best bet on the free side of today's card — drawing our top pick in Race 1 (Claiming, 6 furlongs, dirt) with a TrackWiz sim win percentage of 34.74% and a jockey/trainer combo that has hit the board 60% of the time over the past year. At 7/5 on the morning line, the value isn't enormous, but the underlying numbers back the price.

Now for the scene: it's a raw Thursday at Mahoning Valley — 46°F and raining. That matters on a dirt track. Wet, sealed surfaces at MVR can play differently depending on how much moisture has soaked in versus sitting on top, and speed figures from recent dry-track efforts may not translate cleanly. Keep that in mind across the full card.

Eight races are on the program today, mixing claiming events, a stakes race (Race 2), maiden special weights, and a pair of one-mile allowances to close out the card in Races 7 and 8. The conditions create real handicapping puzzles — and a few spots where the right horse at the right price could pay handsomely.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The opener is a tight two-horse battle at the top of the ratings, with Gray Day (89.42) and Gottomakeithappen (88.28) separated by just over a point and both significantly clear of the rest. All six runners are classified as unproven in terms of run style, so the pace scenario is a mystery — but the speed figures tell a pretty clear story about who belongs.

win4Gray DayML 7/5

Gray Day earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.42 and clocks the second-fastest recent pace among the field at 12.57 sec/furlong — meaning he's been running fast early and sustaining it. What's especially encouraging is the jockey/trainer combo of Jose A. Leon and Juan Pablo Silva, who post a 22% win rate and hit the board 60% of the time together over the past year. He's placed in 20 of 36 dirt starts and carries a solid 53% in-the-money rate. The age concern (6 years old) is noted, but his numbers don't suggest a horse in decline — our sims had him winning 34.74% of the time, the highest mark in the field.

place2GottomakeithappenML 9/5

Gottomakeithappen rates second in the field at 88.28 and leads all horses with the fastest recent speed figure at 12.47 sec/furlong — that's a real edge if he can get to the front or sit close in a compact six-furlong sprint. Jockey Deshawn L. Parker brings a 19% win rate and 56% in-the-money mark over the past year, and the horse has placed in 4 of his last 6 starts. The 9/5 morning line makes him the public's choice, and with a 33.17% sim win rate he's right in the thick of it.

show1Biscuits and GritsML 4/1

Biscuits and Grits comes in at 4/1 on the morning line and rates third in the field at 62.58, which is well back of the top two but still ahead of the pack. He's won eight times on dirt and has placed in 34 of 67 career dirt starts, and his recent speed (12.74 sec/furlong, ranked third) shows he's not embarrassing himself in that department. The concern is real — he hasn't placed in his last three races, and at 8 years old he's past his typical prime. That said, at 15.02% in the sims and offering 4/1, he's worth a spot in exotics.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Gray Day35%
2Gottomakeithappen33%
1Biscuits and Grits15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 1 is where casual bettors can dig in without a subscription. Gray Day ranks second in the field for recent race speed (12.57 sec/furlong) and benefits from a rider-trainer connection that knows how to win — 22% wins and 60% in-the-money over the past year is a legitimate angle, not noise. With an unproven run style, we don't know exactly where Gray Day will settle in the pace, but the speed figures and connections give us enough confidence to make this our free best bet.

One thing to watch in Race 1 specifically: in sloppy or wet-fast conditions, pace scenarios can get messy early as horses look for footing. That can actually benefit horses with tactical versatility. If Gray Day shows any ability to rate and kick, today's surface might work in their favor rather than against it.

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:43 PM EST

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A stakes field that's short and lightly raced — several runners are first-time starters or have limited form — but Rosie B stands well clear at the top of the TrackWiz ratings and brings the fastest recent speed in the field. The real intrigue is whether Chicabee's sharp workout line translates to the race, and whether the morning-line favorite can be caught.

win6Rosie BML EVN

Rosie B is the class of this field, rating first at 60.00 and posting the fastest recent speed figure of the bunch at 12.22 sec/furlong — that's a meaningful edge in a six-furlong dirt sprint. She's posted a 100% career win rate and 100% in-the-money rate from her limited starts, which is as clean a form record as you'll see. Jockey Luis Raul Rivera connects with trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich at a 23% win rate and 60% in-the-money rate over the past year, and Rivera individually checks in at 22% wins and 59% in-the-money. With even-money morning line odds and a 32.73% sim win percentage, she's the deserving favorite — just understand that a short field in a stakes race always carries upset potential.

place3ChicabeeML 2/1

Chicabee is the most fascinating opponent in this spot. She's rated second at 58.33 and owns the sharpest workout of anyone in the field over the last month — 12.07 sec/furlong, best in class — which suggests she's been training well heading into this. Jockey Victor R. Fernandez has a strong 22% win rate and 60% in-the-money rate over the past year, and her 50% career win rate is legitimate. The concern is that her recent race speed ranks fourth in the field at 13.87 sec/furlong, so there's a question of whether she's sharp right now or simply doing her best work at home. At 2/1, she's not a price play, but she belongs here.

show1Moxie RoxyML 6/1

Moxie Roxy offers some intrigue at 6/1 as the third pick in the ratings at 51.67. The jockey/trainer combo of Erik Barbaran and Robert M. Gorham is a compelling connection — they combine for a 31% win rate and 69% in-the-money mark over the past year, which are elite numbers. Barbaran himself has a 24% win rate and hits the board 65% of the time. Her recent speed ranks third in the field at 12.96 sec/furlong, which is workable. The only flag is a relatively slow workout (ranked fifth over the last month at 13.00 sec/furlong), so physical condition is a question. At 6/1, she's a reasonable exotic inclusion.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Rosie B33%
3Chicabee25%
1Moxie Roxy13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:11 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight going six furlongs on dirt, and Exodus stands out as the clear top-rated horse — but the top of the market is bunched between three live runners. Golden Hurricane's recent form looks strong on paper, though a layoff concern looms, and Nacua has quietly posted a solid in-the-money figure from limited starts.

win3ExodusML 5/2

Exodus tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 87.81, and the connections are as good as it gets for this card — trainer Michael L. Rone and jockey Luis Raul Rivera combine for a 28% win rate and 63% in-the-money mark over the past year, with Rivera individually sitting at 22% wins and 59% ITM. His recent speed ranks second in the field at 12.46 sec/furlong and he's placed in 80% of his career starts, suggesting consistent competitiveness even without a win on the board yet. Our sims gave him a 33.33% win share, the top mark in the field. The 5/2 morning line actually offers a touch of value given those numbers.

place2Golden HurricaneML 3/1

Golden Hurricane is a tricky one — rated second at 72.59 and posting the fastest recent speed in the field at 12.17 sec/furlong, which would normally make him an easy top selection. He's also placed in 4 of his last 6 races and shows back-to-back recent in-the-money finishes. The wrinkle is a layoff concern: he's coming off 82 days of rest, and the data shows he dramatically prefers shorter rest intervals, with WPS dropping sharply with longer breaks. That's a real worry, but if he runs back to recent form he's fully capable of threatening.

show1NacuaML 7/5

Nacua opens at 7/5 on the morning line despite rating third in the field at 59.33, which makes him the public's choice — and you can see why. He's placed in his only career start and brings a jockey in Jose A. Bracho who has a 23% win rate and 58% in-the-money rate over the past year. His recent speed (12.51 sec/furlong, ranked third) is solid. At 7/5 though, he's the least attractive price of the top three and trails both Exodus and Golden Hurricane in our ratings. He's worth including in exotics but fading in the win spot.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Exodus33%
1Nacua23%
2Golden Hurricane22%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

1:39 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint where the top two in the TrackWiz ratings — Two Twenty Two and Worthy of It All — are separated by just three points and are both well clear of the field. The pace scenario is unknown with all horses classified as unproven, but the two top-rated runners bring the fastest recent figures and strong connections, setting up a potential photo at the wire.

win3Two Twenty TwoML 7/2

Two Twenty Two earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 86.35 and leads everyone with the fastest recent speed at 12.33 sec/furlong — that's a real edge going six furlongs on dirt. The connections matter here: Victor R. Fernandez sits at a 22% win rate and 60% in-the-money rate over the past year, and his combo with trainer Robert C. Cline clicks at 24% wins and an impressive 71% in-the-money rate. With a 33% career win rate and 55% career ITM mark, this horse converts frequently, and our sims had him winning 26.86% of the time. At 7/2 he's a solid play.

place6Worthy of It AllML 5/2

Worthy of It All rates a close second at 83.03 and has quietly put together four consecutive in-the-money finishes — that's a streak that earns respect in a field where most horses are coming off spotty recent form. Jockey Erik Barbaran has been sharp with a 24% win rate and 65% in-the-money mark over the past year. The concern is a claiming price increase from $10,000 to $15,000, meaning connections are testing him at a tougher level. That's worth noting, but the recent form cycle is hard to dismiss at 5/2.

show5Run ViniciusML 4/1

Run Vinicius catches the eye at 4/1 as a potential value play, sitting third in the ratings at 64.12 with a recent speed figure of 12.60 sec/furlong — second in the field. The massive class drop from $50,000 claiming to $15,000 is the headline angle here: when a horse falls that far in class, there's often a physical reason, but there's also a real chance he's simply overmatched at the higher level and finds this spot far more winnable. With a 23% career win rate and 46% ITM mark, he's proven he can win, and 4/1 is fair value if the class drop is benign.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Two Twenty Two27%
6Worthy of It All27%
5Run Vinicius15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:07 PM EST

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Sweet Kylie enters this maiden field as a heavy favorite — and the data backs her up. She's the top-rated runner by a wide margin, and the rest of the field is scrambling for exotics money. The interesting subplot is whether Rabbi Rosette or Pyramid Scheme can run into the superfecta at double-digit odds.

win7Sweet KylieML 4/5

Sweet Kylie is the dominant figure in this field, rating first at 90.00 and posting the fastest recent speed at 12.85 sec/furlong. More importantly, she's placed in 12 of 15 career dirt starts and has three consecutive in-the-money finishes — that's a horse who runs consistently and knows how to compete on this surface. Our sims gave her a 41.67% win share, more than double her nearest competitor. At 4/5 she won't pay the rent, but she's the right play — this is a race where you use her on top and get creative underneath.

place2Rabbi RosetteML 8/1

Rabbi Rosette opens at 8/1 and rates second in the field at 62.15, a sizable gap behind Sweet Kylie but clear of the rest. Her recent speed ranks second in the field at 12.97 sec/furlong, and jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra brings an 18% win rate and 54% in-the-money mark over the past year. The layoff concern is worth acknowledging — she's coming off only 9 days of rest and historically performs better with 30-plus days between starts. That's a flag, but at 8/1 the price compensates, and she's talented enough to run into a spot.

show8Pyramid SchemeML 5/1

Pyramid Scheme is worth a look at 5/1 as the exotic hedge. She's placed in her last two starts, which is the best recent form streak of anyone behind the favorite, and the Saul M. Morales barn is solid. The concern is a poor workout ranking — seventh in the field over the last month at 13.03 sec/furlong — which suggests she's not at her sharpest right now. Still, at 5/1 and with back-to-back in-the-money finishes, she's a reasonable show play and worth including in trifecta tickets underneath Sweet Kylie.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Sweet Kylie42%
8Pyramid Scheme15%
3Loriblewitup13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

2:35 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Little Shance dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong claiming sprint, sitting nearly 25 points clear of the second-rated Gone Wild. The question isn't whether Little Shance belongs — she clearly does — but whether Gone Wild's strong surface-and-distance record makes her a live threat to the top price in the exotics.

win4Little ShanceML 2/1

Little Shance is the class of this field at a TrackWiz rating of 88.54, and her recent speed backs it up — she leads the field at 12.27 sec/furlong, the kind of number that wins races at this level. She's placed in 8 of 15 career dirt starts with a 20% career win rate, and jockey Ricardo Feliciano has hit the board 55% of the time over the past year. At 2/1 she's a deserving favorite, and our sims had her winning 36.19% of races — the top figure in the field by a comfortable margin.

place6Gone WildML 7/2

Gone Wild rates second in the field at 63.54 and brings a strong surface-and-distance resume: 3 wins from 19 dirt starts and 2 wins from 9 starts at six furlongs specifically, with a career ITM rate of 52%. Her recent speed (12.66 sec/furlong, second in the field) is legitimate, and trainer Robert C. Cline has a solid record. The flag is three consecutive out-of-the-money finishes recently, which tempers enthusiasm. At 7/2 she's a fair play to land the exacta spot underneath Little Shance.

show2Unbridled O'BrienML 4/1

Unbridled O'Brien at 4/1 is a reasonable show inclusion with some things to like. His recent speed ranks third in the field at 12.67 sec/furlong, and a slight class drop (from $16,000 to $15,000) suggests connections are positioning him to find the board. Jockey Humberto Haldar has a 20% win rate and 52% in-the-money mark over the past year. The concern is a limited record at this distance — just 2 placements from 8 starts at six furlongs — which makes him a touch inconsistent at today's condition. Still, at 4/1 he has enough positives to justify a trifecta slot.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Little Shance36%
6Gone Wild20%
2Unbridled O'Brien14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:03 PM EST

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance mile on dirt with a legitimate three-way battle at the top — Wild Cotton (87.81), Carnival Rock (82.61), and Mitochondria (77.69) are all well-rated and have strong dirt form. Wild Cotton gets the nod at the top of the ratings but Carnival Rock's consistency and Mitochondria's recent form make this one of the more competitive races on the card.

win3Wild CottonML 5/2

Wild Cotton earns the top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and owns the fastest recent speed in the field at 12.28 sec/furlong — in a mile race where early positioning matters, that's a significant advantage. He's placed in 5 of 6 career dirt starts with a 50% win rate, numbers that simply don't lie. Trainer William D. Cowans earns an A grade, and jockey Dylan Machado has a 18% win rate and 48% in-the-money mark. Our sims put him at 26.79% — right in the thick of a genuinely competitive race. The 5/2 morning line seems fair.

place2Carnival RockML 2/1

Carnival Rock comes in at 2/1 and has the most consistent profile in the field for a place bet — 66% career in-the-money rate, 25% career win rate, and placed in 8 of 12 career dirt starts. His recent speed ranks third in the field at 12.56 sec/furlong, and he's not far off the pace-setters. Jockey Fernando Salazar Becerra has solid numbers, and our sims gave him a 27.50% win share, slightly ahead of Wild Cotton. At 2/1 he's the public's second choice for a reason, and he's a logical key in exacta wheels.

show7MitochondriaML 3/1

Mitochondria opens at 3/1 and makes a compelling case as the show pick, having placed in his last two starts and carrying a 63% career in-the-money rate from 10 dirt starts. Trainer Anthony Stephen earns an A grade, and jockey Deshawn L. Parker has a 19% win rate and 56% in-the-money mark over the past year. His recent speed is in the middle of the pack for this field, which may limit his upside against Wild Cotton and Carnival Rock, but his consistency and recent form make him a solid exotic play at a fair price.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Carnival Rock28%
3Wild Cotton27%
7Mitochondria20%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

3:31 PM EST

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Water Into Wine enters as the even-money favorite and the top-rated horse by a solid margin, but Mor Stormy lurks at 7/2 with the fastest recent speed figure in the field and a sharp jockey/trainer combo. Jilly Runs Deep makes an intriguing show play at 10/1 for exotics players looking for a value tier underneath the top two.

win3Water Into WineML EVN

Water Into Wine is the class of this allowance mile, rated first at 88.68 with a 27% career win rate and an 81% in-the-money rate — that last number is exceptional. She's placed in 9 of 11 career dirt starts, and the connections are elite: trainer Timothy E. Hamm earns an A grade, jockey Laureano Sosa has a 23% win rate and 62% in-the-money rate over the past year, and together they click at 26% wins and 67% in-the-money. Our sims gave her a 33.48% win share, tops in the field. Even-money isn't exciting, but the profile is as solid as it gets on today's card.

place6Mor StormyML 7/2

Mor Stormy is the most interesting opponent in the race. She rates second at 86.35 — just 2.33 points behind the favorite — and owns the fastest recent speed in this field at 12.29 sec/furlong, a hair quicker than Water Into Wine. Jockey Victor R. Fernandez sits at 22% wins and 60% in-the-money for the year, and the Fernandez/Cline combo hits at 24% wins and 71% in-the-money, which are excellent numbers. At 7/2, she's the natural exacta partner with Water Into Wine, and our sims had her at 22.11%.

show5Jilly Runs DeepML 10/1

Jilly Runs Deep at 10/1 is the value tier worth highlighting for exotic players. She's rated third in the field at 76.88 and has an extraordinary dirt record — placed in 11 of 12 career dirt starts with a 25% win rate and 83% in-the-money rate. Her recent speed ranks second in the field at 12.37 sec/furlong, right behind Mor Stormy. Trainer Loren Huepenbecker earns a B- grade, which is the modest concern here, but at 10/1 morning line she offers real value for trifecta and superfecta tickets — a horse this consistent on this surface rarely goes that price.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Water Into Wine33%
6Mor Stormy22%
2Skytree14%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Bottom line for today at Mahoning Valley: Gray Day in Race 1 is the free play we feel good about in difficult conditions, and the premium card is loaded with legitimate angles — especially in the stakes and the late allowances. Eight races, a cold rain, and a dirt track that could favor the right horse at the right price. Full card analysis is available to TrackWiz subscribers — check out our plans and get the complete picture before post time.

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