Mahoning Valley Race Course Picks & Predictions — November 11, 2026

Twirlaway ranks second in TrackWiz ratings at 79.68 and leads the field in recent race speed at 12.42 sec/furlong — in a six-furlong sprint, that early zip matters. Jose Bracho is aboard, and his 23% win rate over the past year makes him one of the go-to riders in this circuit. The in-the-money rate at this distance (just 1-for-6) is thin, but Bracho's presence and the speed edge make Twirlaway a strong place contender at 7/2.

Funny Twist comes in with the third-fastest recent speed figure in this field at 13.03 sec/furlong and shows a significant class drop from $30,000 to $7,500 — when a horse drops that far, it's often a sign the connections are ready to find the right spot. She's ranked third in our ratings at 56.67 and has posted recent back-to-back unplaced efforts, which is a concern, but that class relief could be the catalyst for a bounce-back effort. At 3/1, she's not a price play, but she's solid enough for the show slot in an exacta or trifecta.

Rock the Red rates second in the field at 85.99 and actually leads the entire group in recent race speed at 12.53 sec/furlong — that's a real edge over a mile when early position can matter. His record of six wins and 18 in-the-money finishes from 33 dirt starts is a strong foundation, and jockey Luis Negron has been winning at a 24% clip with a 55% in-the-money rate over the past year. The concern is zero in-the-money finishes from four tries at medium distances, which makes the place position more comfortable than win here.

Impressiveness slots in at third in the TrackWiz ratings (79.66) and owns the third-fastest recent speed figure at 12.61 sec/furlong — this field has a clear trio pulling away from the rest. A 25% career win rate and a 56% in-the-money rate are solid numbers, and Fernando Salazar Becerra has posted a 19% win rate and a 54% board rate over the past year. At 7/2 on the morning line, he's worth including in trifecta tickets as the most likely horse to round out the top three.

Blue Tail Fly leads this entire field in recent race speed at 12.19 sec/furlong and carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating at 83.97 — in a six-furlong sprint, that combination is hard to dismiss. A 37% career win rate is excellent for a claiming runner, and the record of three wins from seven dirt starts shows she handles today's surface well. At 5/2 on the morning line, she's not a huge price, but the speed figures justify expecting her to be right there at the finish.

Reasons We Drink has the second-fastest recent speed figure in the field at 12.49 sec/furlong and owns a remarkable 80% in-the-money rate across her career — that's the kind of consistency you want in a show play. Her 30% career win rate and 8-for-10 in-the-money record on dirt speak to a horse who routinely hits the board. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's some value here if you're building out a trifecta, and her 17.51% sim win share shows she can certainly surprise.

Hardway Mike checks in second in the TrackWiz ratings at 82.73 and has placed in each of his last three races — consistent current form in an allowance field is a meaningful positive. His record of one win and three in-the-money finishes from four dirt starts mirrors Tulsi's surface affinity, and Jose Bracho's 23% win rate makes him a trusted pilot. The 3/1 morning line is fair, and his 22.04% sim win share makes him a solid place horse to stack underneath Tulsi in exactas.

Silence Earthling rates third in the field at 69.62 and has placed in each of his last three races, so the form is trending in the right direction. His record of one win and three in-the-money finishes from four dirt starts is quietly solid, and Fernando Salazar Becerra has hit the board in 54% of his mounts over the past year. At 10/1 on the morning line, there's genuine overlay value for a horse with this kind of recent consistency — he's worth using in trifectas and potentially a small win ticket.

Xavi rates second in the field at 82.6 and shows the third-fastest recent speed figure at 12.40 sec/furlong, keeping him right in Wauhatchie's wheel. His record of three wins from 16 tries at six furlongs and four wins from 23 dirt starts builds a strong foundation for today's conditions. The only concern flagged by our model is that he's coming in with 24 days of rest when his best form historically comes with 30-plus days off — something to monitor, but the talent is clearly there for a place or better.

Coastertothemoon sits third in the TrackWiz ratings at 79.06 and benefits from a strong jockey/trainer partnership — Parker and Urieta have combined for a 20% win rate and a 55% in-the-money rate over the past year, and Parker himself wins 19% of his mounts. With six wins and 15 in-the-money finishes from 30 dirt starts, this is a horse who regularly hits the board in spots like this one. At 4/1 on the morning line, he's solid third-wheel value in trifecta tickets.

Remix From Phoenix ranks second in the field at 86.18 and shows the second-fastest recent speed figure at 13.06 sec/furlong, which matters over a mile where settling early and running late is key. A 35% in-the-money rate from prior starts gives him a foundation, and jockey Angel Diaz has shown solid form over the past year. The model flags that he's coming in on only 15 days of rest when his better performances have come with 30-plus days between starts — a legit concern, but his talent keeps him in the top half of this field at 3/1.

Tap Dancing Dan rates third in the field at 64.66, and Jose Bracho — one of the stronger pilots in this colony with a 23% win rate over the past year — takes the mount. It's a maiden field, so limited form is universal here, but Bracho's presence on a horse the model rates this highly is enough to earn a spot in trifecta tickets. At 12/1 on the morning line, he's a live longshot — if our simulations giving him a 9.08% win share materialize, the return would be significant.