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Mahoning Valley Race Course Picks & Predictions — November 2, 2026

November 2, 20268 racesAll Mahoning Valley Race Course picks

Best bets at Mahoning Valley Race Course today

Race 13OniricoML 2/112:15 PM EST

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Mahoning Valley Race Course: our top pick won 4 of 32 races (13%) and finished in the money in 18.

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Miss Lora Ann is the play to build your day around. In Race 2 — one of three free previews on today's card — she tops the field with the fastest recent race speed (12.36 sec/furlong) and her jockey is hitting at 19% on the year with a 54% in-the-money clip. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's real value here if she runs to her numbers.

Conditions at Mahoning Valley are about as cooperative as you'll see this time of year — 63°F and partly cloudy, meaning the dirt should be consistent and predictable all afternoon. Eight races are on the slate, all sprinting at six furlongs or shorter on the main track. Short fields plus a fair surface is a handicapper's dream scenario for isolating edges.

The card mixes Allowance, Claiming, Allowance Optional Claiming, and Maiden Claiming conditions, so there's plenty of movement up and down the class ladder to exploit. Our TrackWiz simulations flagged several horses outrunning their morning lines, and a couple of longshot angles worth a look deeper in the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:15 PM EST

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The top two TrackWiz ratings in this allowance are separated by only 2.5 points, and with every horse listed as unproven in terms of running style, the pace scenario is a genuine unknown — making this one a handicapper's puzzle at six furlongs on the Mahoning dirt.

win3OniricoML 2/1

Onirico tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and comes in as the morning-line favorite at 2/1, and the numbers back up that confidence. Our model shows the horse winning 30.7% of 10,000 simulations — the highest share in the field by a meaningful margin. Jockey Jose Bracho has posted a 22% win rate and a 58% in-the-money rate over the past year, giving this horse a strong pilot. The dirt record is equally compelling: three wins in eight starts on that surface, placing in six of those eight, and a recent race speed that ranks second in the field at 12.33 sec/furlong.

place1Jac's Doe MakerML 3/1

Jac's Doe Maker rates second in the field at 86.01 and carries a very strong career profile — a 37% win rate and placing in 75% of starts. The dirt record mirrors that consistency with three wins and places in six of eight races on the surface. Jockey Chelsey Keiser has been reliable with an 18% win rate and 49% in-the-money over the past year, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this horse offers solid each-way value right behind the top pick.

show2Mor StormyML 6/1

Mor Stormy is the value piece in the exotics here, checking in at 6/1 on the morning line despite posting the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.20 sec/furlong — that's the best raw number of any horse in this race. Jockey Victor Fernandez brings a 20% win rate and 58% in-the-money clip, and the Fernandez-Cline combo is even sharper at 24% wins and 70% in-the-money together. The rating of 76.28 ranks third, but that speed figure gives a reason to keep Mor Stormy in your trifecta plays.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Onirico31%
1Jac's Doe Maker26%
2Mor Stormy16%

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Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

12:43 PM EST

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Race 2 is a TrackWiz free preview race, and it's a genuine top-heavy affair — Miss Lora Ann holds a double-digit rating advantage over the rest of the field, though two mid-priced contenders in Playkoz and First Kiss Ever make the exacta and trifecta worth playing.

win1Miss Lora AnnML 5/2

Miss Lora Ann sits atop the ratings at 87.81 — that's a 21-point gap over the third-ranked horse, which is a sizable edge in a seven-horse field. Our model has her winning 31.9% of simulations, the highest in the race. She posted the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.36 sec/furlong and has been remarkably consistent on dirt, placing in 11 of 16 starts on the surface. Jockey Summer Pauly has a 19% win rate and 54% in-the-money over the past year, and at 5/2, the morning line isn't asking you to overpay for the class advantage.

place7PlaykozML 3/1

Playkoz rates second in the field at 66.26 and has been a model of consistency lately, placing in four of his last six starts. The dirt record is solid with a win and places in four of eight races on the surface, and the recent race speed of 13.11 sec/furlong ranks third in the field. One thing to note: Playkoz is 0-for-2 at Mahoning Valley specifically, so the track record is a mild concern, but the overall recent form and 3/1 morning line make this horse a natural player in the exacta underneath the top pick.

show6First Kiss EverML 2/1

First Kiss Ever draws the third spot in our picks at 2/1 on the morning line — shorter than Playkoz, which is interesting given a lower TrackWiz rating of 57.65. The 33% career win rate is one of the better marks in the field, and trainer Justin Radosevich has an A- grade. Our simulation has First Kiss Ever winning 19.3% of the time, making this horse a viable show inclusion in trifectas despite a modest in-the-money rate of 33% on the career.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

1Miss Lora Ann32%
7Playkoz19%
6First Kiss Ever19%

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The three free races — Race 2 (Miss Lora Ann), Race 4 (Quick Recovery), and Race 7 (Re Markably) — share a common thread: jockey connections that are producing at strong rates all meet for horses with competitive recent speed figures. Miss Lora Ann is the standout, ranking first in the field for recent pace. Quick Recovery is the most interesting value angle of the three; at 6/1 on the morning line, her sim win percentage of 17% suggests the market may be slightly overselling her price given her speed rank and jockey stats.

Re Markably in Race 7 is the one to watch for multi-race sequences. That jockey-trainer combo has posted a 29% win rate and cashed 75% of the time together over the past year — that kind of synergy in an Allowance Optional Claiming spot is exactly the angle TrackWiz is built to surface. Even at 9/2 on the morning line, there's a case she offers positive expected value.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:11 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep eight-horse claiming field at six furlongs where the top two rated horses are separated by less than a point — Henry Mac and Startdfromdabottom are both at 85+ ratings and both 8-year-olds, setting up a race where consistency and recent form will likely decide the outcome.

win4Henry MacML 2/1

Henry Mac leads the field with an 85.89 TrackWiz rating and a resume that screams seasoned claiming veteran — 17 wins and placing in 31 of 45 dirt starts is a remarkably deep record. Jockey Luis Raul Rivera has posted a 22% win rate and 60% in-the-money over the past year, and the Rivera-Radosevich combo matches that at 22% and 60% as well. Yes, Henry Mac is 8 years old and age is a legitimate flag, but a 25.5% simulation win share in a field this competitive tells you the data still respects this horse. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's the right side of the exacta.

place5StartdfromdabottomML 7/2

Startdfromdabottom is barely a point behind at 85.03 and brings the best recent race speed in the field — 12.11 sec/furlong ranks first. The consistency numbers are equally impressive: nine wins in 35 dirt starts and placing in five straight races heading into today. Trainer David Wolochuk holds an A grade, and the simulation shows a 22.3% win share, almost identical to Henry Mac's, making this a genuine photo finish between the top two on paper. The 8-year-old flag applies here too, but the recent form doesn't show any dropoff.

show1Win Herbie WinML 8/1

Win Herbie Win at 8/1 on the morning line offers real value for exotic players despite ranking third in the field at 79.79. The career numbers on dirt are excellent — six wins and places in 11 of 16 races — and the Fernandez-Cline jockey-trainer combination has clicked at a 24% win rate with a 70% in-the-money rate together this year. The one concern is a workout that ranks seventh among the field over the last month, suggesting the horse may not be coming into this race at peak sharpness. Still worth including in your trifecta at 8/1.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Henry Mac26%
5Startdfromdabottom22%
1Win Herbie Win15%

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Race 4

1:39 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open nine-horse claiming sprint where the top-rated horse sits at 82.71 and four horses are within ten rating points of each other — this is the kind of race where value plays up and down the ticket deserve serious consideration.

win7Quick RecoveryML 6/1

Quick Recovery earns the top TrackWiz rating at 82.71 — narrowly ahead of Beautiful Crazy at 82.12 — and backs it up with a solid dirt record of six wins and places in 19 of 31 starts on the surface. Jockey Jose Bracho has a 22% win rate and 58% in-the-money over the past year, and the recent race speed of 12.31 sec/furlong ranks third in the field. Trainer Jeffrey Radosevich holds an A grade, one of the stronger connections in this race. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse our model has winning 17.1% of simulations.

place6Beautiful CrazyML 5/2

Beautiful Crazy posted the fastest recent race speed in this field at 12.10 sec/furlong — that number stands out in a nine-horse claiming field — and the Rivera-Farrior combo is one of the hottest pairings on the card, clicking at 29% wins and 75% in-the-money together this year. The concern is real though: this horse has placed in just one of its last six starts and hasn't hit the board in three straight. The talent is clearly there based on the speed figure; the question is whether that recent cold spell is ending today.

show3No Pay No HayML 10/1

No Pay No Hay at 10/1 is the value angle for the show spot, having placed in four consecutive races heading into today — that's a streak that deserves attention at double-digit odds. Jockey Alexander Bendezu is one of the sharper riders on this card with a 25% win rate and 65% in-the-money over the past year. The dirt record includes places in 17 of 32 starts, showing consistent competitiveness. Our simulation gives this horse an 11.2% win share, which makes the 10/1 morning line look quite generous for exotic purposes.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Beautiful Crazy22%
7Quick Recovery17%
5Fair Trade15%

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Race 5

2:07 PM EST

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A twelve-horse maiden claiming event at 5½ furlongs is rarely straightforward, but Rabbi Rosette holds a substantial rating advantage at the top of this field — the real question is whether the rest of the field can close the gap in the simulations.

win6Rabbi RosetteML 2/1

Rabbi Rosette holds an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — tied for the best mark on today's card — and posted the fastest recent race speed in this field at 13.01 sec/furlong. Our model has this horse winning 29.7% of 10,000 simulations in a twelve-runner field, which is a commanding share. Jockey Ricardo Feliciano and trainer Benny Feliciano have combined for a 19% win rate and 55% in-the-money this year, a workmanlike but reliable combo. The one flag worth noting: Rabbi Rosette is coming back in only 26 days and has historically performed better with 30 or more days of rest — not a dealbreaker at 2/1, but worth keeping in mind.

place7Honor QuestML 6/1

Honor Quest rates second in this field at 72.29 and brings a meaningful 16-point gap over the third-ranked horse, suggesting there's a clear top two here. The recent race speed of 13.38 sec/furlong ranks third in the field, and jockey Victor Fernandez — who has a 20% win rate and 58% in-the-money this year — gives this horse a reliable pilot. The Mahoning Valley record of one place in four starts here is a mild concern, but at 6/1 on the morning line, Honor Quest profiles as a natural exacta piece under Rabbi Rosette.

show1Moon DreamsML 12/1

Moon Dreams at 12/1 is the longer-priced show play, and the angle here is the Mahoning Valley track record — this horse has placed in four of five starts at this very track, which stands out in a maiden field where course familiarity can matter. A 24% win rate for jockey Luis Negron over the past year adds some confidence in the pilot. The concerns are real — three straight without a placing and zero places in three starts at this 5½-furlong distance — so this is strictly a trifecta inclusion rather than a strong stand-alone ticket.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

6Rabbi Rosette30%
7Honor Quest14%
2Pyramid Scheme12%

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Race 6

2:35 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Blazing Burroughs owns a clear class edge at the top of the ratings in this nine-horse claiming sprint, but a handful of mid-priced horses with strong pace figures make this a solid trifecta race rather than a simple top-and-under.

win3Blazing BurroughsML 5/2

Blazing Burroughs tops the field at 87.81 — a full 3.7 points ahead of the second-ranked Playing for Keeps — and the dirt record is among the best on today's card: 11 wins and places in 23 of 34 starts on the surface. The horse has also placed in each of its last two races, showing current form. Trainer Larry Smith holds an A- grade, and jockey Summer Pauly has a solid 19% win rate and 54% in-the-money over the past year. The 7-year-old flag is the honest concern here, but our simulation has Blazing Burroughs winning 22.7% of the time — the highest share in the field — supporting the top pick despite the age question.

place7Playing for KeepsML 3/1

Playing for Keeps posted the fastest recent race speed in this field at 12.15 sec/furlong, which is the kind of pure speed figure that translates well in six-furlong dirt sprints. The horse has placed in four of its last six starts, showing consistent current form, and trainer Louis Ruberto holds an A grade. At 3/1 on the morning line, Playing for Keeps is not being offered at significant value, but the combination of best recent speed figure and strong recent form makes this horse a natural exacta partner with Blazing Burroughs.

show5Eagle NestML 5/1

Eagle Nest brings a 33% career win rate and a deep dirt record — 10 wins and places in 19 of 30 starts — that profile well for a claiming sprint at Mahoning. Jockey Erik Barbaran has been one of the sharper riders on this card all day with a 25% win rate and 67% in-the-money over the past year. The concerns are worth acknowledging: a claiming price increase from $16,000 to $25,000 is a step up in class, and the 6-year-old flag applies. Still, at 5/1 on the morning line, Eagle Nest earns a spot in the trifecta as a horse with legit dirt credentials at a price.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Blazing Burroughs23%
7Playing for Keeps19%
5Eagle Nest15%

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Race 7

3:03 PM EST

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse Allowance Optional Claiming field where the top three rated horses are separated by less than two points — Re Markably, Fivefive Six Champ, and Dark Vintage form a tight cluster that should dominate the exotics, though the depth of this field makes it one of the trickier races on the card.

win9Re MarkablyML 9/2

Re Markably tops the field at 84.90 and connects two of the best pieces on the board — jockey Luis Raul Rivera and trainer Anthony Farrior, who have combined for an impressive 29% win rate and 75% in-the-money together over the past year. The dirt record is strong: five wins and places in 13 of 17 starts, and our model has this horse winning 17.4% of simulations in a very competitive ten-horse field. At 9/2, the morning line reflects some undervaluing of what is effectively the top-rated horse in the race with elite connections.

place6Fivefive Six ChampML 5/1

Fivefive Six Champ rates second at 82.63 and brings one of the deepest resumes in the field — 16 wins and places in 27 of 47 dirt starts, which is a reliable, seasoned performer. The jockey-trainer combination of Brandon Tapara and Jay Bernardini has clicked at 28% wins and 69% in-the-money together this year, which is a strong angle. The 7-year-old flag is a legitimate concern, but the sheer volume of winning starts on dirt suggests this horse still knows how to compete. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is a solid exacta play underneath Re Markably.

show7Dark VintageML 7/2

Dark Vintage posted the fastest recent race speed in the entire field at 11.61 sec/furlong — a figure that really pops in an allowance optional claiming spot — and has placed in each of its last four races, the strongest current form streak among the top contenders. Jockey Alexander Bendezu has a 25% win rate and 65% in-the-money over the past year, and trainer Scott Becker holds an A grade. Our simulation gives Dark Vintage an 18.99% win share, which is actually higher than the 7/2 morning line implies — making this horse a strong trifecta piece with upside.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

7Dark Vintage19%
9Re Markably17%
6Fivefive Six Champ16%

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Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

3:31 PM EST

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The final race of the evening is an allowance for fillies and mares that features a tight battle at the top — Youngandfree and Rivers Angel are separated by just 7.5 rating points, and both figure to be factors in what projects as a competitive closer to the card.

win5YoungandfreeML 4/1

Youngandfree tops the field at 85.62 and comes with an eye-catching profile for a horse going to post at 4/1 — a perfect 5-for-5 in-the-money record on dirt, including a win, and our simulation has this horse winning 26.9% of races, the highest share in the field. Jockey Erik Barbaran has a 25% win rate and 67% in-the-money over the past year, one of the stronger rider stats on today's card. Trainer Kristina Tumblin holds an A- grade. There are no red flags in the data here — this is a horse with clean form, strong connections, and the top rating in the race.

place6Rivers AngelML 5/2

Rivers Angel rates second in the field at 78.17 and posted the second-fastest recent race speed at 12.53 sec/furlong, keeping pace with the top contenders in raw speed. The dirt record of a win and places in seven of ten starts is a standout consistency number in this field. Jockey Summer Pauly has a 19% win rate and 54% in-the-money over the past year, and at 5/2 on the morning line — slightly shorter than the 4/1 win pick — Rivers Angel is a natural exacta partner and a legitimate threat to upset if Youngandfree has an off day.

show1Lizzy's DreamML 2/1

Lizzy's Dream closes out the picks at 2/1 on the morning line — that's the shortest price of the three, which makes it the chalk despite ranking third in our analysis. The horse posted the fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.50 sec/furlong and has placed in four of its last six starts, showing solid current form. At 2/1, the value isn't especially exciting for a show bet, but the speed figure and recent consistency make this horse a reliable trifecta anchor for those constructing multi-horse exotics on the final race.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

5Youngandfree27%
6Rivers Angel25%
1Lizzy's Dream21%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Miss Lora Ann is the day's marquee free play — fast, well-connected, and priced right at 5/2. Quick Recovery and Re Markably round out the free card with legitimate win shots. For the full eight-race breakdown, pace scenarios, and exotic ticket construction, subscribers have everything they need waiting at TrackWiz. Good luck out there — let's find some winners.

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