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Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Picks & Predictions — September 20, 2026

September 20, 20269 racesAll Los Alamitos Thoroughbred picks

It's a pleasant Sunday afternoon at Los Alamitos — 78°F, partly cloudy skies, and nine races on the dirt to keep you busy. Conditions look ideal for fast, honest times, and with the track likely playing fair all day, we're expecting speed figures to hold up from race to race.

The nine-race card spans a nice mix of Claiming, Maiden Claiming, and an Allowance Optional Claiming feature in Race 6 — that's your marquee spot for the afternoon. Three races are unlocked for every reader today, covering both sprint and route distances that give you a real feel for how the track is playing before the serious wagering kicks in.

TrackWiz analysis has three free best bets locked in and a full premium breakdown of the remaining six races — including some legitimate longshot angles worth building into your tickets.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Dad's Bad Bunny carries the top TrackWiz rating by a wide margin in this 5-furlong dirt claimer, but the morning line favorite is Bitter Truth — setting up a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win6Dad's Bad BunnyML 5/2

Dad's Bad Bunny is the clear top-rated horse in this field at 87.81, a full eight points clear of the next contender, and that gap matters in a short field. Edgar Payeras gets the call for trainer Jamey R. Thomas, and the 5/2 morning line actually undersells how dominant this horse grades out on our model. Averaging 55 on speed and carrying a 14% career win rate, this is the kind of horse that can make a quick five furlongs look easy from the front or just off the pace.

place2Big CoinML 4/1

Big Coin (No. 2) posted the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.2 and matches Dad's Bad Bunny on average speed at 55. The 4/1 morning line on Francisco Orduna-Rojas's mount represents real value for a horse grading this well — if the favorite falters or gets shuffled in traffic, Big Coin is the logical beneficiary.

show5VashonML 12/1

Vashon is the longshot eyecatcher here at 12/1, rated 68.45 — third-best in the field — making that price look awfully generous. Trained by Gloria Haley and ridden by Salvador R. Vargas, this horse's 20% career win rate suggests a live runner who knows how to get to the wire, and at those odds, a show ticket is a low-risk exotic play.

Race 2

8:33 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Twisted Humor and Jasmina are deadlocked at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — separated by just 2.5 points — making this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer a genuine two-horse battle with legitimate pace fireworks expected.

win1Twisted HumorML 3/1

Twisted Humor (No. 1) tops the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating, and trainer Jesus J. Uranga sends him out with Ricardo S. Ramirez in the irons. The 20% career win rate is solid for this level, and an average speed figure of 56 puts him right at the top of the pace pack. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse we're confident backing — he's rated first and priced fairly, a combination we love.

place3JasminaML 5/2

Jasmina (No. 3) is right on Twisted Humor's heels at 84.51 and boasts the best career win percentage in the entire field at 28%. Kyle Frey is a strong booking for trainer Robert B. Hess Jr., and the 5/2 morning line makes her a near-coinflip with the top pick. If there's a pace duel early, Jasmina's win rate suggests she knows how to close it out when it counts.

show5Petit FiletML 5/1

Petit Filet (No. 5) at 5/1 is the sneaky value play for the show spot, rated 64.76 and matching Twisted Humor's average speed figure of 56. Trainer Brian T. Cunningham has Francisco Orduna-Rojas in the saddle, and if the top two horses push each other through a hot pace, Petit Filet is well-positioned to pick up the pieces for a placing.

Race 3

9:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden claimer over six furlongs is a wide-open debut fest — all seven horses have zero career wins — so TrackWiz ratings and speed figures do the heavy lifting in separating contenders.

win3Oscar StormML 2/1

Oscar Storm (No. 3) tops this maiden field with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating and is correctly installed as the 2/1 morning line favorite. Kyle Frey riding for trainer Philip A. Oviedo is a solid combination, and the 53 average speed figure is par for this level. In maiden claiming company where past wins don't exist, our model's edge over raw odds is especially valuable — Oscar Storm grades out first.

place6IncaML 5/2

Inca (No. 6) sits just a tick below Oscar Storm at 56.51 and checks in at 5/2 on the morning line — an honest price for the second-rated horse. Alfredo L. Bautista rides for trainer Ruben Gomez, and Inca's 54 average speed is a step above Oscar Storm's, which suggests she could actually outrun her odds if she gets to the lead and controls the pace.

show2A P OxbowML 5/1

A P Oxbow (No. 2) at 5/1 is tied with R Prada on the TrackWiz scale at 53.33, but the Doug O'Neill barn gives this one a meaningful trainer edge. O'Neill is one of the most successful conditioners in Southern California, and his involvement in a maiden claimer typically signals a horse who's been well-prepped. At 5/1, this is a solid exotic inclusion for the show spot.

The three free races give you a solid early read on today's card. Dad's Bad Bunny (Race 1) and Twisted Humor (Race 2) are both sprinting on the dirt at distances where front-runners tend to thrive — watch the early pace in those openers to gauge whether speed is holding or if closers are picking up late momentum. That information is gold heading into the deeper part of the card.

Over in Race 3, Oscar Storm draws plenty of attention as the morning-line favorite in a Maiden Claiming sprint — the 2/1 line suggests the morning-line maker respects the form, but maiden races are notoriously volatile and there's value to be found underneath. Together, these three free picks give casual bettors a clear place to start and daily grinders a useful pace-scenario baseline for the full card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line says Daniel's Magic is the one to beat, but TrackWiz analysis tells a very different story — Autism Puzzle grades out as the top horse at 6/1, making this a prime overlay opportunity in the nightcap stretch.

win5Autism PuzzleML 6/1

Autism Puzzle (No. 5) is our top-rated horse in Race 4 at 82.71, a full six points ahead of the next contender, yet sits at 6/1 on the morning line — significantly undervalued relative to his model score. Edgar Payeras picks up the mount for trainer Genaro Vallejo, who also saddles Devil Be Me in this race, showing confidence in the barn's chances. A 25% career win rate is excellent for this claiming level, and if Autism Puzzle fires his best effort, he should be difficult to beat.

place3Instinct D' OroML 7/2

Instinct D' Oro (No. 3) rates second in the field at 76.65 and owns a 28% career win rate — the best among the top contenders. Armando Aguilar rides for Sergio Morfin, and the 7/2 morning line is fair but not generous. His 56 average speed figure matches several rivals, but the combination of high win rate and strong TrackWiz score makes him a confident place selection.

show4Zombo BomboML 5/1

Zombo Bombo (No. 4) at 5/1 rates third in the field at 64.75 and carries a respectable 21% career win rate. Justine Klaiber pilots for trainer Angela Maria Aquino, and with a 55 average speed figure, this horse isn't far off the pace of the top two rated horses. At 5/1, Zombo Bombo offers solid show value in what could be a contentious pace scenario between the favorites.

Race 5

10:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Nine horses go to post in this five-furlong dirt claimer, and while the morning line leans toward Ballyhooligan and Magic Connection, Bet the Om absolutely dominates the TrackWiz ratings — making this a near-single situation for sharp bettors.

win8Bet the OmML 4/1

Bet the Om (No. 8) is the standout in Race 5 with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — more than 22 points clear of the next-best horse. Edgar Payeras picks up the ride for trainer Troy Dial, and the 4/1 morning line is a gift given how dominant this horse grades. A 55 average speed figure and 14% career win rate are solid, but it's that rating gap that really tells the story — this looks like a class standout that the market hasn't properly recognized.

place9Magic ConnectionML 7/2

Magic Connection (No. 9) at 7/2 rates second in the field at 63.36, and Tiago Josue Pereira has the mount for trainer Hector O. Palma. The 15% career win rate is modest, but in a nine-horse field where Bet the Om is expected to draw plenty of action, Magic Connection should find clean racing room and fight for the place spot. He's a logical second horse in your exacta underneath.

show2Joey BracketsML 12/1

Joey Brackets (No. 2) is the longshot value angle at 12/1 with a 63.12 TrackWiz rating — nearly identical to Magic Connection. Ricardo S. Ramirez rides for trainer Monty R. Meier, and while the 15% career win rate isn't flashy, a 55 average speed figure keeps him competitive in this group. At 12/1, a small show ticket or trifecta inclusion on Joey Brackets is an angle worth taking in a wide-open supporting cast.

Race 6

10:47 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

See Through It is the class of this allowance optional claiming field — boasting the highest TrackWiz rating, the best career win percentage, and a morning line that still offers mild value given those credentials.

win7See Through ItML 8/5

See Through It (No. 7) is a near-single for us in Race 6, grading out at 89.12 — the top rating on the entire card through six races — and carrying a 31% career win rate that leads this field by a wide margin. Tiago Josue Pereira rides for Genaro Vallejo, who is having a productive meet at Los Alamitos. At 8/5, the price isn't glamorous, but when a horse dominates on both model score and win percentage, you lean in — this is an allowance optional claimer, and See Through It looks like the class drop horse in reverse.

place5SupernalML 9/5

Supernal (No. 5) is the clear second choice on our ratings at 66.59 and owns a 27% career win rate — second only to See Through It in this field. Armando Ayuso rides for trainer Ronald W. Ellis, and the 9/5 morning line reflects the market's respect for this horse. At 6.5 furlongs, a 56 average speed figure is competitive, and Supernal should be finishing strongly if the favorite drifts or encounters trouble.

show1Mio BambinoML 8/1

Mio Bambino (No. 1) at 8/1 is the interesting outside play for show, rating 57.04 — third-best in the field. Armando Aguilar rides for Brian J. Koriner, and while the 11% career win rate won't inspire confidence as a win bet, the 8/1 morning line makes this a prime show overlay. In a race where two horses are clearly above the rest, someone has to run third — and Mio Bambino has the tools to be that horse.

Race 7

11:19 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Another maiden claiming affair, this one over six furlongs, where Melba Montgomery edges out morning line favorite Snapshot on the TrackWiz model — creating an intriguing market discrepancy in a winless field.

win3Melba MontgomeryML 3/1

Melba Montgomery (No. 3) tops the field at 80.55 despite being listed at 3/1 — a touch longer than the 2/1 Snapshot — which is where the value angle lives. Armando Ayuso rides for trainer Steve R. Knapp, who knows how to spot-race maidens at this level. A 53 average speed figure is in the mix with the field, and with zero career wins on the board for everyone, our model score is the differentiator — Melba Montgomery is the play.

place4SnapshotML 2/1

Snapshot (No. 4) comes in at 76.20 on the TrackWiz scale and is the morning line favorite at 2/1 with Drayden Van Dyke in the irons for trainer Richard Baltas. Baltas is one of the sharpest trainers in the Southern California circuit, and Van Dyke is an elite booking — if there's a horse here that can outperform her rating, it's Snapshot. She's a confident place play, and could easily reverse the order on Melba Montgomery.

show2Surprise D' OroML 8/1

Surprise D' Oro (No. 2) at 8/1 is the longshot show play that intrigues us, rating 66.00 — third-best in this field of seven. Kyle Frey picks up the mount for trainer Hector O. Palma, and the 54 average speed figure is right in the mix with the top two. In a maiden race where form can be unpredictable and upsets are common, a 8/1 show ticket on a horse grading third is a smart exotic hedge.

Race 8

11:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep and contentious six-furlong dirt claimer where Tygra and Mr. Machupicchu are separated by just 2.4 rating points at the top — but the real subplot is Hankering at 15/1 showing a 33% career win rate that demands attention.

win5TygraML 4/1

Tygra (No. 5) edges the field with an 84.66 TrackWiz rating and matches Mr. Machupicchu on average speed at 57 — tops in the race. Francisco Monroy has the mount for trainer Francisco Rodriguez, and the 4/1 morning line is fair value for a horse grading first. A 12% career win rate isn't elite, but in this company, the combination of top speed figures and model score is what matters most — Tygra is our best bet in Race 8.

place4Mr. MachupicchuML 2/1

Mr. Machupicchu (No. 4) is right on Tygra's heels at 82.25 and is installed as the 2/1 morning line favorite — the market respects this one. Welfin R. Orantes rides for trainer Jeff Bonde, and that 57 average speed figure is tied for best in the field. The 4% career win rate is low, but speed figures and model scores can outpace win percentage in a single race, especially if pace favors his running style.

show6Hurricane WayML 7/2

Hurricane Way (No. 6) rates third in the field at 71.35 with Armando Aguilar aboard for trainer Mark Rheinford. The 7/2 morning line reflects some market confidence, and a 56 average speed figure keeps this horse in the mix through six furlongs. With two heavy hitters likely drawing the early money, Hurricane Way could sneak into the exacta or trifecta at a respectable price.

Race 9

12:23 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Potica runs away with the TrackWiz ratings in this nine-horse maiden claimer, but the real storyline is the show pick — Thirsty Caitlin at 8/1 grades out fourth and could be the most undervalued horse on the entire card tonight.

win5PoticaML 3/1

Potica (No. 5) is the standout in the finale, posting an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — more than 18 points ahead of the next rival — and is rightly installed as the 3/1 morning line choice. Adrian Escobedo gets the call for trainer Ryan Hanson, and a 55 average speed figure is the best in the field. In a maiden claimer where none of these horses have broken their duck, that kind of rating separation is a meaningful signal — Potica is the horse to beat.

place4Thirsty CaitlinML 8/1

Thirsty Caitlin (No. 4) is an eye-catching overlay at 8/1, rating 69.12 — second-best in the field despite being priced as a longshot. Wandryck Cardoso Franco rides for trainer Edwin G. Alvarez, and a 54 average speed figure is right in the mix with the top contenders. If Potica does her job in front, Thirsty Caitlin's rating suggests she's well-placed to grab the place spot at a price that makes the exacta extremely attractive.

show2Tam's Swiss MissML 4/1

Tam's Swiss Miss (No. 2) at 4/1 rates 55.00 — third in the field — with Drayden Van Dyke aboard for trainer Sean McCarthy. Van Dyke is one of the best riders in the region, and having him on a maiden claimer at fair odds is a solid angle in itself. A 53 average speed figure is competitive, and if the race sets up with an honest pace, Tam's Swiss Miss has the profile to be running on at the wire for a placing.

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A beautiful afternoon at Los Alamitos, a nine-race all-dirt card, and TrackWiz has you covered from first post to the finale. Start with Dad's Bad Bunny, Twisted Humor, and Oscar Storm in the free races, use those results to calibrate your read on the track, and then let our premium analysis guide you through the back half of the card where See Through It, Potica, and a tasty longshot angle make for a compelling afternoon. Full breakdowns — including exotic tickets and pace projections — are available to subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there.

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