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Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Picks & Predictions — September 19, 2026

September 19, 20269 racesAll Los Alamitos Thoroughbred picks

It's a beautiful Saturday at Los Alamitos — clear skies, 79°F, and the kind of firm, dry dirt that rewards pure speed. Nine races are on tap today, ranging from maiden claimers on the sprint course all the way up to a stakes finale at a mile that should be the highlight of the afternoon.

The card leans heavily on the 5½-furlong sprint distance, which plays right into Los Alamitos' wheelhouse. This is a track that rewards horses who can fire early and sustain it around that tight turn — pace scenario and position are everything here. Expect the bias conversation to come up early and often.

Whether you're here to cash a ticket on the opener or chase the stakes money in Race 8, TrackWiz has you covered with free analysis on the first three races and full premium breakdowns for the back half of the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer where TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story — one horse grades out significantly above the field, but the morning line underestimates her. Pace should be honest with multiple horses showing similar speed figures.

win4Please BehaveML 4/1

Please Behave earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 85.62 — that's a full 27 points clear of the next-best contender, which is a massive separation in a maiden field. She's posting an average speed figure of 54 and draws the 4-post with Henry Reynoso Lopez up for trainer Felix L. Gonzalez. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate value here for a horse who grades out as the class of the field. In a race of maiden claimers where pedigree and raw ability often sort things out quickly, this edge is hard to ignore.

place2DanielleML 9/5

Danielle is the public's choice at 9/5 with Hall of Famer Kent J. Desormeaux in the irons — that jockey booking alone tells you trainer Aggie Ordonez is serious about winning today. She rates second in the field at 58.67 and figures to be forwardly placed from the rail-adjacent 2-post over 5½ furlongs. If Please Behave hits any trouble, Danielle has the talent and connections to make the exacta payoff.

show6MooberryML 2/1

Mooberry checks in at a 58.33 TrackWiz rating and sports the best average speed figure in the field at 55, which matters over the 5½-furlong Los Alamitos strip. Sharing a barn with Lovely Maya under Doug F. O'Neill — one of Southern California's most active trainers — she gets solid tactical support. At 2/1, she's not a value play to win, but she fits comfortably in the bottom of exactas and trifectas.

Race 2

8:32 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claimer, sitting well above the rest of a soft field — but the morning line has them flipped, setting up an interesting betting scenario. The race shapes up as a two-horse battle with a clear pace advantage.

win7We Salute YouML 2/1

We Salute You tops the TrackWiz ratings in Race 2 at 88.54 — the highest mark in the field by nearly three points — and posts an average speed figure of 54 out of the 7-post with Cesar Ortega riding for trainer Alberto Ruvalcaba. The 2/1 morning line is fair but doesn't fully reflect how far above the field this rating sits. In a wide-open maiden claimer with plenty of pace fodder, a horse with this kind of edge often gets the job done without much trouble.

place4Salty SissML 3/1

Salty Siss is a fascinating play at 3/1 for trainer Vann Belvoir, who also saddles Una Mirada in this race — a dual entry that signals genuine confidence in the barn's chances today. She rates 85.65 on the TrackWiz scale with an average speed of 54, virtually mirroring the top pick in raw ability. If We Salute You hits traffic from the outside post, Salty Siss is positioned to capitalize and looks like the most logical place finisher.

show5Stormy GalML 9/5

Stormy Gal is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and rates 75.62 — a solid figure, though it trails the top two selections. Trainer Ruben Gomez and jockey Armando Aguilar are a familiar Southern California pairing, and Stormy Gal's consistency in workouts apparently has the market convinced she can outrun her program number. She's a solid show play for those building trifectas around the top two.

Race 3

9:02 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The claiming ranks come out for Race 3 and a genuine pace scenario develops — multiple horses with legitimate early speed mean the complexion of this race could get heated on the front end, which often sets things up beautifully for a closer. Career win percentages separate the contenders here in a meaningful way.

win6Go PrancealotML 3/1

Go Prancealot is the standout on TrackWiz analysis with a rating of 87.08 — the highest in the field by a wide margin — and backs it up with a career win rate of 20%, the best among the top contenders. Edgar Payeras gets the mount for trainer Jesus Ramos, a combination that knows the Los Alamitos layout well. At 3/1, the morning line offers legitimate value given how decisively Go Prancealot outscores the competition, and a 54 average speed figure keeps her firmly in contention on the front end.

place1SelsaeML 2/1

Selsae is the 2/1 favorite and earns that price with a 73.9 TrackWiz rating, posting a career win rate of 7% in a field where several horses haven't won at all. Trainer Gloria Haley sends her out with Alfredo L. Bautista, who's one of the busier jockeys on this card, and a 54 average speed figure slots her into a pace-pressing role. She figures to be tough to shake if the pace up front gets honest, making her a natural fit in the place slot.

show5Toulouse DetracML 9/5

Toulouse Detrac comes in at 9/5 and rates 60.98 with an 8% career win rate — modest numbers but consistent enough to warrant inclusion in exacta and trifecta coverage. Trainer Jorge Farias places her at the 9/5 price, suggesting the market sees upside here. Her 55 average speed figure is among the best in the field and could get her into the picture if the two top choices get tangled up.

Our three free races all come up at 5½ furlongs on the dirt, and that's no coincidence — it's the bread-and-butter distance at Los Alamitos and a great spot to establish your pace read for the day. Please Behave (Race 1, 4/1 morning line) gets us started in the maiden claimer, and at that price there's genuine value if she breaks alertly. We Salute You (Race 2, 2/1) comes in as the class of her field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest of the free picks — and looks like a horse to build an early sequence around. Go Prancealot (Race 3, 3/1) steps into a claiming sprint where pace shape should favor closers if the first two races set a blazing tempo.

The through-line on all three free picks is simple: watch how the early speed fares in Races 1 and 2. If front-runners are holding on comfortably, Go Prancealot may need to be closer than you'd think in Race 3. Track your reads in real time and let the card talk to you.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:37 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This allowance optional claiming mile features a legitimate top contender who grades out well above the rest, but the intrigue is in the supporting cast — a horse with an eye-popping career win rate and a potential longshot who's done more winning than his odds suggest. Pace sets up honest at the distance.

win3Thirsty RebelML 8/5

Thirsty Rebel is the clear TrackWiz top choice at 89.12 — the highest rating in Race 4 by more than 23 points — and pairs that with a 22% career win rate and a solid 56 average speed figure. Abel Lezcano gets the call for Doug F. O'Neill, whose stable is firing on all cylinders throughout this card. The 8/5 morning line reflects her standing as the dominant figure in the race, and at a mile on the Los Alamitos dirt, her combination of class and raw ability should be too much to overcome.

place5UnpretentiousML 5/1

Unpretentious brings a 33% career win rate to the table — that's the second-best mark in the field — and rates 65.43 with Edgar Payeras in the irons for trainer Charles S. Treece. She's a horse who knows how to finish, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine place-ticket value if Thirsty Rebel is locked in a duel on the lead. Horses with win percentages that high in allowance company don't usually hit the board by accident.

show2NaftisML 15/1

Naftis is an interesting inclusion at 15/1 with a 57.88 TrackWiz rating and an 11% career win rate under trainer Genaro Vallejo. Kyle Frey takes the mount, and the 55 average speed figure suggests he'll be close enough to the pace to benefit if the frontrunners tire late. This is a longshot-level show play that could inflate an exotic payout significantly if the top choices fill the first two spots.

Race 5

10:12 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of maiden claimers going a mile creates a genuinely competitive puzzle — three horses cluster near the top of the TrackWiz ratings within 8 points of each other, which means this race could legitimately go several ways. Post position and pace control will matter at this distance.

win1ShapovalML 2/1

Shapoval earns the top rating in the race at 83.32 and gets a powerful jockey booking in Armando Ayuso for trainer Peter Miller, one of the most respected names in Southern California racing. At 2/1 on the morning line, the public aligns with our TrackWiz analysis. The 53 average speed figure is in line with the field, but it's the overall profile — elite trainer, top rating, sharp jockey — that makes Shapoval the play to beat at the mile distance.

place3Desert HawkML 6/1

Desert Hawk is a fascinating value angle at 6/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 — barely a half-point behind our win pick. Trainer Jose Hernandez Jr. saddles Francisco Monroy, and the combination figures to have Desert Hawk running on late in a mile trip. The morning line undervalues this horse relative to the rating, making 6/1 a price worth targeting in exactas underneath or on top.

show9Lucky SniperML 5/2

Lucky Sniper rates 75.49 — third-best in the field — and checks in at 5/2 with Kyle Frey in the irons for trainer Dan Blacker. His 54 average speed figure is the best among our three picks, which matters in a mile race where early positioning can dictate the outcome. He's the safest play of the trio and a natural anchor for trifecta tickets.

Race 6

10:47 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This maiden special weight at 5½ furlongs is wide open at the top — the highest TrackWiz rating in the field is just 63.64, and no horse has a proven win on their resume. The morning-line favorite doesn't align with the top-rated horse, creating a potential overlay situation worth exploring.

win2Olympian ThirstML 6/1

Olympian Thirst tops the TrackWiz ratings in Race 6 at 63.64 with a 54 average speed figure and Welfin R. Orantes aboard for trainer Adan Farias, who also enters Prime Thunder in this race. The 6/1 morning line is a genuine overlay given that this horse grades out as the class of the field — in a maiden special weight without a clear standout, top ratings carry extra weight. Over 5½ furlongs, pace positioning is everything, and Olympian Thirst profiles as a horse who can be close enough to matter.

place8Bottiglia Di VinoML 8/5

Bottiglia Di Vino is the 8/5 morning-line favorite under Armando Ayuso for trainer Brian J. Koriner, and the market clearly likes what they've seen in the mornings. Without a recorded average speed figure in our data, the case here rests on connections and reputation — Ayuso is one of the hotter riders on this card, and favorites in maiden special weight races win at a meaningful clip. She's a logical place candidate even if the top rating belongs to another horse.

show3Kathy's HouseML 5/2

Kathy's House rates 57.50 — third in the field — with a 55 average speed figure that's the best of our three picks in this race. Edwin A. Maldonado rides for trainer Luis Mendez at 5/2 on the morning line, and the solid speed number suggests she can keep pace with the early fractions over this sprint distance. She's a natural fit in the show slot and a useful trifecta inclusion at a price that still offers some value.

Race 7

11:19 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Race 7 is a five-furlong claiming sprint with a legitimate pace duel brewing between horses sporting sharp speed figures — and two contenders separated by just 3 points at the top of the ratings, setting up a potential photo. Career win percentages here are notably strong across the field.

win4Black MagicianML 2/1

Black Magician earns the top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 with a 35% career win rate — the highest in this field — and a 56 average speed figure that matches the fastest horses in the race. Ricardo S. Ramirez rides for trainer Jesus J. Uranga, and the 2/1 morning line reflects legitimate respect from the market. In a five-furlong sprint where early fractions are everything, a horse who wins 35% of the time and rates at the top of the field is exactly the profile you want to back.

place1Devil MoonML 7/2

Devil Moon is only 3 points behind on the TrackWiz scale at 85.34, and he brings a 56 average speed figure to match the top contenders. Edgar Payeras rides for Ruben Gomez — the same trainer who appears multiple times on tonight's card — and the 7/2 morning line offers a touch of value for a horse this close in ability to the top pick. He's the logical alternative if Black Magician runs into any traffic or trouble on the front end.

show8Mischief's KingML 10/1

Mischief's King represents a legitimate value angle at 10/1 with a 61.71 TrackWiz rating — well above the several horses rated in the 20s and 30s — and a 20% career win rate that speaks to consistent ability. Justine Klaiber takes the mount for trainer Angela Maria Aquino, and the 55 average speed figure keeps him competitive over this sprint trip. In a race where the top two battle it out, Mischief's King could be the fresh horse running on late for a big trifecta score.

Race 8

11:50 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Dirt

The stakes race is the marquee event of the night and it's not hard to see why — a horse with a 57% career win rate and a 90 TrackWiz rating going to post at even money against a field of solid but clearly outclassed rivals. The real question is whether the price makes him worth backing or whether value lives elsewhere.

win3Man O RoseML EVN

Man O Rose is simply the class of this field — a 90 TrackWiz rating, a 57% career win rate, and the best average speed figure on the card at 57, all pointing to a horse operating at a different level than his competitors. Edwin A. Maldonado rides for trainer Jeff Mullins, a top-tier Southern California barn that doesn't enter stakes races lightly. Even money is a short price, but the combination of dominant ratings, elite win percentage, and sharp connections makes Man O Rose our top pick on the night.

place1Speedy WilsonML 3/1

Speedy Wilson rates 64.2 and brings a 26% career win rate under Kazushi Kimura for trainer Philip D'Amato — another A-list barn that demands respect at any level. His 56 average speed figure is competitive with the field (outside the top pick), and at 3/1 on the morning line, he's the most logical horse to fill out exactas behind the heavy favorite. D'Amato sharpens horses well for spots like this, and Kimura is one of the better big-race jockeys in California.

show4Mr. DisrespectfulML 8/1

Mr. Disrespectful rates 56.15 with a 30% career win rate and a 56 average speed figure for trainer Craig Dollase — a seasoned horseman who knows how to prep a horse for stakes competition. Armando Ayuso is up from the 4-post, which is a workable draw going a mile. At 8/1, he's a lightly regarded show option who could make the trifecta very interesting if the two top choices run each other into the ground.

Race 9

12:23 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap sends out a full field of maiden claimers going six furlongs, with two horses clustered tightly at the top of the ratings and a larger-than-usual supporting cast of outsiders. Post positions are spread wide — including double-digit program numbers — which adds a tactical wrinkle to the pace scenario.

win4Still BulletproofML 5/2

Still Bulletproof earns the top TrackWiz rating at 81.26 with a 55 average speed figure and Ricardo Gonzalez in the irons for trainer Andy Mathis. The 5/2 morning line puts her near the top of the betting, which aligns with our analysis. In a six-furlong maiden claimer, a horse with the top rating and a solid speed number should be well-positioned to dictate from a favorable inside draw — program number 4 puts her in a clean spot with a clear path to the front.

place11Kiki RideML 3/1

Kiki Ride rates 80.97 — essentially dead even with the top pick — and comes in at 3/1 for trainer Craig Anthony Lewis with Abel Lezcano aboard from the 11-post. Lezcano is a sharp jockey who can navigate wide draws, and the rating suggests this horse has every right to be competitive despite the outside starting position. At 3/1, there's value here for a horse within a point of our win pick, making her the natural complement in exactas.

show9HungoverML 5/1

Hungover rates 63.63 — a meaningful step below the top two but well above most of the field — and comes in at 5/1 with Welfin R. Orantes riding for trainer Ryan Hanson, who also sends out Major Mo in this race. The 53 average speed figure is modest but consistent, and in a wide-open field where pace can collapse, a horse with a solid rating and a fair price can find its way onto the podium. Hungover is the right show play to anchor trifecta tickets tonight.

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Today's card at Los Alamitos has something for everyone — straightforward sprint value in the openers, a meaty allowance mile mid-card, and a stakes closer headlined by Man O Rose that should deliver fireworks. Start with our free picks on Races 1–3, then let the premium analysis carry you home through the back six. Good luck out there, and as always — bet smart, bet informed.

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