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Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Picks & Predictions — September 13, 2026

September 13, 20268 racesAll Los Alamitos Thoroughbred picks

It's a clean, sunny Sunday at Los Alamitos Thoroughbred — 81°F, clear skies, and a fast dirt surface that should reward horses who can get out and run. Eight races on the board, all on the main track, and the conditions are about as ideal as Southern California gets this time of year.

The card skews toward the claiming and maiden ranks, which actually makes it a sharp handicapper's playground. Class drops, pace angles, and speed figure edges tend to be more exploitable at these levels than in graded stakes company — and our TrackWiz models have found some genuine spots to attack today.

Three races are open to all readers, and five more are locked in for subscribers. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A Starter Allowance sprint at 5½ furlongs where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top contender, but the morning line suggests the market hasn't fully caught on — expect some overlay opportunities.

win3No More Ding DongsML 2/1

No More Ding Dongs carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.54, a significant gap over the competition in this Starter Allowance field. Ricardo Ramirez gets the call, and trainer Jesus Uranga has multiple entries in this race, signaling stable confidence. The 2/1 morning line is fair for a horse with this kind of separation on our model, but that rating advantage is hard to ignore over 5½ furlongs on the dirt.

place1Otro MasML 5/2

Otro Mas brings a 31% career win rate — the highest in this field by a comfortable margin — and that kind of proven closing ability makes him a strong place contender. Edgar Payeras takes the mount, and the 5/2 morning line is reasonable for a horse with that win percentage in a field this competitive.

show2Project LeaderML 3/1

Project Leader also comes out of the Uranga barn, which is worth noting when a trainer doubles up — connections typically know which horse has the better chance but often run the second one as live cover. A 37% career win rate is elite at this level, and at 3/1 he's worth slotting into your exacta and trifecta tickets as show insurance.

Race 2

8:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong claiming sprint is headlined by two horses — Chase N Ryan and It's a Factor — posting nearly identical top ratings while the morning-line favorite Stagger Lee checks in as a middle-tier option on our model, creating a genuine pace and value puzzle.

win6Chase N RyanML 9/2

Chase N Ryan edges the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating, fractionally ahead of It's a Factor, and comes in with a 14% career win rate that suggests consistent competitiveness. Kazushi Kimura is one of the most reliable riders in the Southern California circuit, and trainer Steve Knapp has a knack for finding spots. At 9/2 on the morning line, this is a legitimate value play if the market is gravitating toward Stagger Lee at 8/5.

place2It's a FactorML 4/1

It's a Factor posts an 84.55 rating — second in the field — and while the 6% career win rate raises an eyebrow, our model suggests this horse has been competitive in tougher spots. Ricardo Gonzalez takes the mount for trainer Antonio Garcia, who has a sharp eye for claiming company. At 4/1, a place hit here offers real value for horizontal bettors.

show4SarkML 5/1

Sark sits third on TrackWiz ratings at 73.99 and matches Stagger Lee's avg speed figure despite a longer morning line at 5/1. Trainer Gloria Haley finds a workable spot here, and Armando Aguilar provides solid local experience. Sark's presence rounds out exactas and trifectas nicely as a show safety valve with upside.

Race 3

9:04 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming route where the favorite by morning line doesn't match up as the model's top choice — the top three rated horses are separated by just five points, setting up a wide-open trifecta battle.

win4MakenaritaML 7/2

Makenarita tops our ratings at 86.35 despite going off at 7/2, and Kazushi Kimura in the irons is a significant edge — he's consistently one of the most productive riders at Los Alamitos. Trainer Steve Sherman finds a realistic spot at this claiming level for a mile trip on the dirt. The slight average speed dip compared to some rivals is offset by a pace scenario that should favor closers going the extra ground.

place3Pretty CecyML 4/1

Pretty Cecy rates second in the field at 84.07 and brings a 22% career win rate — above average for this level — giving her solid credentials for a place ticket. Tiago Pereira has been sharp lately, and trainer Ruby Thomas has this filly pointed right. At 4/1, she overlaps perfectly in the exacta underneath Makenarita.

show2Emma GML 5/1

Emma G posts an 81.06 rating and is an eye-catching standout with a 40% career win rate — by far the highest in this field and a stat that doesn't lie at any level. Trainer Edward Freeman and jockey Hector Berrios combine at 5/1, making Emma G a legitimate contender who could easily beat her morning line position and hit the board.

Our three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — cover two sprints and a one-miler, giving us a nice cross-section of the card right out of the gate. No More Ding Dongs draws our top rating of the free races at 88.54 and hits the board as the 2/1 morning-line favorite in the Starter Allowance opener, a spot that historically rewards horses with back class. In Race 2, Chase N Ryan offers real value at 9/2 on the morning line — that's the kind of price you circle when your TrackWiz rating (84.90) suggests the crowd might be underestimating the horse. Cap the free portion with Makenarita at 7/2 in the one-mile claimer — a route on dirt at Los Al sets up for closers with stamina, and our models like this one's profile at today's distance.

On a fast, sun-baked Los Alamitos strip, early speed has historically held a slight edge in the sprints, so pace scenarios will be front of mind all afternoon. Keep that in mind as you watch the early fractions in Races 1 and 2.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:37 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An Allowance Optional Claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs featuring a pair of Steven Miyadi trainees that dominate the TrackWiz ratings — this card is largely about whether a rival can split them.

win1Christa McAuliffeML 5/2

Christa McAuliffe leads all runners with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and lands aboard Emisael Jaramillo, who knows this strip well. Trainer Steven Miyadi has two horses in this race, which signals stable confidence, and the 5/2 morning line is right in line with her model-top status. At 5½ furlongs on the dirt, a 56 average speed figure ties the top of the field — this is the horse to beat.

place2Baby Needs ShoesML 5/1

Baby Needs Shoes rates second at 81.26 with Kazushi Kimura up for Peter Miller — a trainer who runs horses hard when they're ready. The 16% career win rate is serviceable, and at 5/1, there's real overlay potential for a horse that our model puts firmly in the mix. She's the logical alternative if Christa McAuliffe gets caught in traffic early.

show6Bessie ColemanML 7/2

Bessie Coleman is the other Miyadi-trained runner in the race, and when a leading trainer saddles two horses at this level, the second one often fires harder than expected. An 79.82 rating and 21% career win rate make her legitimately dangerous, and at 7/2 she's a strong show anchor and worthwhile trifecta inclusion.

Race 5

10:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint at five furlongs where all runners are winless — our model finds a clear standout, but maiden races can throw curveballs, so pace and value angles matter more than usual.

win6TreximoML 7/2

Treximo dominates this maiden field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — 17 points clear of the second-ranked Cimarron Strip — which is as decisive a separation as you'll find in maiden claiming. Adrian Escobedo gets the call for trainer Ryan Hanson, and a 55 average speed figure ties for the top of this field. At 7/2, this rating gap translates to genuine value in what could be a very short-priced pool once the tote opens.

place2Cimarron StripML 7/2

Cimarron Strip rates second at 69.21 and steps in at 7/2 with Kyle Frey aboard for Tim McCanna — a trainer who has quietly been placing horses well this meet. Despite posting a 52 average speed figure, the model likes the underlying form, and in a field of maidens, consistency of effort matters. A place ticket here at 7/2 is solid value.

show1Golden Two StepML 2/1

Golden Two Step drew the rail and comes in as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for Doug O'Neill, a trainer who knows how to get maiden winners. The 58.33 rating places him third on our model, but his profile as the crowd's choice means he'll likely be underlaid to win — making him a safer show selection to hedge your exotics while Treximo does the heavy lifting.

Race 6

10:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming at six furlongs where Sacred Sound looks like a standout on paper, backed by the field's best speed figure and top TrackWiz rating — the question is whether the market's short price leaves any room for a value angle underneath.

win5Sacred SoundML 8/5

Sacred Sound is the clear model favorite at 89.12 — the top rating on tonight's card through six races — and backs it up with a 57 average speed figure that's a full point or two ahead of every rival in this field. Kazushi Kimura takes the mount for Peter Miller, a trainer who consistently delivers well-prepared horses at maiden level. The 8/5 morning line is short, but when the model says 89 in a maiden field, you respect it.

place2I'm No SwiftyML 3/1

I'm No Swifty rates second at 80.65 for Peter Eurton — one of the stronger maiden conditioners in Southern California — with Armando Ayuso up. A 55 average speed figure is competitive, and at 3/1 there's value for the place slot if the crowd loads up on Sacred Sound and drives the price down further. Eurton's horses often run to their figures first time in new spots.

show4Grape Juice TooML 15/1

Grape Juice Too is a legitimate longshot angle at 15/1, rating third in the field at 66.73 despite being buried at the bottom of the morning line. Edgar Payeras takes the mount for Melanie McDonald, and a 54 avg speed figure is respectable in this company. In a race dominated by the favorite, exotics players should consider tossing this name in the show slot as a live outsider.

Race 7

11:16 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A competitive 5½-furlong claiming sprint where the top-rated horse goes off at 3/1 while a horse rated second overlaps at a shorter price — pace should be honest here with multiple speed-leaning types, which could set things up for closers.

win5Dustem TooML 3/1

Dustem Too leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and comes in with a 16% career win rate for Tim Yakteen — a trainer known for placing horses in advantageous spots. Welfin Orantes gets the call, and a 55 average speed figure matches the best in the field. The 3/1 morning line represents fair value for the top-rated horse in a competitive eight-horse field.

place7Elsa DuttonML 5/2

Elsa Dutton rates second at 80.74 and goes off as the second choice at 5/2, which is an honest line for a horse with genuine place credentials. Armando Ayuso rides for trainer Charles Treece, and the 55 average speed figure keeps her in the conversation through the lane. She's the most likely alternative if Dustem Too hits traffic, and the exacta combining these two is the natural play.

show3Big CoinML 12/1

Big Coin is our show call and the legitimate longshot angle of the race at 12/1, posting a surprising 73.96 rating — third in the field — despite a modest 6% career win rate. Trainer Genaro Vallejo and Francisco Orduna-Rojas team up, and the 55 avg speed figure is right there with the top horses. When the model and the morning line diverge this sharply, Big Coin is worth a look in the trifecta.

Race 8

11:47 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

To close out the card, a maiden claiming route at 5½ furlongs where all eight runners are winless and the model finds separation at the top — but short morning lines on horses without wins always come with a grain of salt.

win1ShemakesmemadML 5/1

Shemakesmemad tops our model at 70.43 for trainer Steven Miyadi and Alfredo Bautista in the irons, posting a 54 average speed figure that's solid for this maiden field. Miyadi is having a strong meet, and his ability to spot horses in the right spots makes this a meaningful angle. At 5/1 morning line, this is a genuine overlay situation — the model says best, but the market hasn't fully agreed, which is exactly where value lives.

place5Thirsty EternaML 7/5

Thirsty Eterna is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and rates second on our model at 59.33 — a competitive number but not the top of the field. Armando Aguilar rides for Rolando Quinonez, and a 54 average speed figure matches the win pick. If the crowd is right about Thirsty Eterna, she should hold place, but at 7/5 she's better in the place slot than as a win bet where the return doesn't justify the risk.

show7East WittonML 5/2

East Witton draws the seven hole at 5/2 for Ryan Hanson and Adrian Escobedo — a trainer/jockey combo that has shown up ready in maiden spots this meet. An 57.50 rating is third-best in the field, and while no average speed figure is available, Hanson's horses tend to run honest first efforts. In an unpredictable maiden finale, East Witton at 5/2 gives trifecta players a reliable bridge to the bottom of the ticket.

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Bottom line: Los Alamitos is playing fast under clear skies, and TrackWiz has identified strong spots in each of today's eight races. Start with No More Ding Dongs in Race 1, keep an eye on the value Chase N Ryan brings in Race 2, and don't sleep on Makenarita going a mile in Race 3. For the full-card breakdown — including Sacred Sound's big rating in Race 6 and our exotic ticket strategies — subscribers have everything waiting at /pricing. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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