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Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Picks & Predictions — September 12, 2026

September 12, 20269 racesAll Los Alamitos Thoroughbred picks

It's a beautiful Saturday at Los Alamitos — clear skies, 83°F, and a fast dirt track that should reward speed horses all afternoon. Nine races are on the card, stretching from quick 5-furlong sprints to a full mile, with conditions ranging from maiden claiming openers to a stakes finale that's worth circling on your program.

The Los Al dirt has been playing true lately, and with the dry weather keeping the surface consistent, pace will be a major factor. Horses that can clear to a clean lead without pressure are going to be very tough to beat today — keep that in mind across the board.

The headliner is Race 9, a 6-furlong stakes where Billie Holiday draws our eye despite a morning line of 9/2 that suggests a competitive field. More on that in the premium breakdown — but mark her down now.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A starter allowance sprint at 5½ furlongs where one horse stands well clear on our ratings — but the morning line suggests the public will need some convincing at 2/1.

win6Alphabetical OrderML 2/1

Alphabetical Order is the class of this field by a comfortable margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — a full 16 points clear of the next rival. That 38% career win rate is elite for this level, and Ricardo S. Ramirez gets the call in what looks like a favorable speed scenario for this distance. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price isn't a gift, but the profile demands respect.

place2Instinct D' OroML 7/2

Instinct D' Oro brings the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 72.43 and owns the top career win percentage among the contenders at 29%. Sergio Morfin's trainee also matches the field's best average speed figure, giving Edgar Payeras a live mount with a chance to sneak into the exacta.

show3The Big CheeseolaML 3/1

The Big Cheeseola is the morning line favorite's biggest rival on raw numbers, checking in at 64.58 on our ratings with a solid 3/1 price attached. Ricardo Gonzalez navigates a horse who may need a clean trip from post 3, but if the pace sets up honest, look for this one to be running late and collecting a piece.

Race 2

8:30 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer over six furlongs where a heavy-on-paper favorite has a big ratings edge, but wide-open exotics make this one worth structuring carefully.

win3Charmz AwayML 9/5

Charmz Away tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 in a field where no horse has yet broken their maiden, and her average speed figure of 55 leads everyone with a meaningful workload behind them. Luis Mendez sends her out with Alfredo L. Bautista aboard, and the 9/5 morning line reflects real public confidence. In a maiden claimer, a horse with this kind of ratings separation is exactly what you want to key on top.

place5Quality GoldML 7/2

Quality Gold sits second in the ratings at 64.61 and gets Edgar Payeras — one of the busier riders at the meet — for a barn that's been active on the grounds. The 7/2 morning line offers some value for a horse who profiles as a logical place finisher, even if she can't quite reach the top selection.

show1Prize CandyML 7/2

Prize Candy is interesting here despite a blank stat line on career wins — this appears to be an early-career runner where our model found enough to like in the 55.83 rating. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's the same price as the place pick, giving you two horses at identical odds to build your exotics around below the heavy favorite.

Race 3

9:02 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming race that looks like a pace battle on paper, with ratings tightly bunched and a huge potential overlay lurking at double-digit odds.

win1Tee N OffML 4/1

Tee N Off tops the TrackWiz ratings at 72.33 and gets Kazushi Kimura, who has been one of the sharper sticks on the Southern California circuit. Steve R. Knapp trains this one, and the 4/1 morning line feels fair given the competitive nature of the field. At a mile on the dirt, Tee N Off's profile sets up well for a closer who can let the pace collapse in front of him.

place2Smiling JojoML 15/1

Here's where it gets interesting — Smiling Jojo is our place pick at 15/1 on the morning line, making this a legitimate value play. His TrackWiz rating of 69.58 is nearly as strong as the top pick, and a 13% career win rate in a field full of horses in the low teens suggests he belongs. Armando Aguilar takes the mount for Rolando Quinonez, and if Jojo fires his best, that morning line price is a massive overlay.

show4Forza AzzurriML 9/5

Forza Azzurri is the morning line favorite at 9/5 with Peter Miller saddling and Drayden Van Dyke aboard — a connections combo that commands respect. The 66.33 rating puts her third in the field, and while our model prefers Tee N Off on top, Van Dyke has a way of putting horses in position at the right time on the one-turn mile.

We're giving you full analysis on the first three races at no cost. Alphabetical Order kicks things off in the Race 1 Starter Allowance — a condition that rewards horses who've proven themselves at a certain claiming level, and our ratings have this one at an 88.54, near the top of today's card. In Race 2's Maiden Claiming sprint, Charmz Away carries the highest TrackWiz rating of the free races at 88.83 and opens at a juicy 9/5 morning line — the kind of overlay that makes maiden races worth attacking. Race 3 stretches to a mile in a Claiming field, and while the 72.33 rating on Tee N Off is softer, the 4/1 morning line opens the door for some value if the pace sets up right.

The thread connecting all three free picks? Speed and positioning. On a fast Los Al dirt track under clear skies, horses breaking cleanly and establishing position early have a significant edge. Watch the early fractions closely in Race 1 — they'll tell you a lot about how the surface is playing for the rest of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:35 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A starter optional claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs where one horse separates himself on every meaningful metric — and the second pick sets up as a solid play below him in exotics.

win6Jerry's SpiritML 5/2

Jerry's Spirit is our strongest play in Race 4, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 that towers over this field. A 41% career win rate is remarkable at any level and suggests a horse that simply knows how to finish in front. Tim Yakteen sends him out with Armando Aguilar in the irons, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this is a confident top selection — not a gift price, but the profile earns it.

place2GettinbyML 2/1

Gettinby brings a 37% career win rate and a 71.59 rating, making her the clear second choice in our analysis. Sean Williams trains her for Ricardo Gonzalez, and that 2/1 morning line will make the exacta with Jerry's Spirit a relatively short price — but her consistency makes her the safest backup in the field.

show4Mega MoonML 9/2

Mega Moon at 9/2 offers some price with a 56.85 rating and an average speed figure of 56 that ties the top group. Steve R. Knapp's runner draws post 4 with Edwin A. Maldonado, and while the career win rate of 16% is modest, the raw speed numbers say this horse can sit within striking distance and pick up a piece in a contentious pace scenario.

Race 5

10:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Nine maidens go a mile in this dirt claimer, and while no horse has won before, the ratings card out in a fairly clear order — with a couple of big-price threats worth including in your tickets.

win5Stylish ColleenML 4/1

Stylish Colleen leads our ratings at 85.62 and posts the top average speed figure in the field at 54 — a meaningful edge in a race where the average is 52. Abel Lezcano picks up the mount for Ryan Hanson, and at 4/1 on the morning line, there's some value attached to what looks like the class of the field. In maiden claimers at a mile, a horse with speed figure separation and competent connections is exactly the profile to get behind.

place8Lively GirlML 6/1

Lively Girl checks in at 74.17 on our ratings — a significant gap below Stylish Colleen but clear of everyone else. Kazushi Kimura rides for Antonio C. Garcia, and her average speed figure of 53 ties the upper tier of this group. The 6/1 morning line makes her an interesting part of exactas and trifectas for bettors looking to build a ticket with some return.

show4Smokem Hot GirlML 8/1

Smokem Hot Girl at 8/1 rounds out our suggested sequence with a 63.39 rating and a modest speed figure of 51. What catches the eye is that Felix L. Gonzalez trains her — a barn that's had active runners at this meet — and Alfredo L. Bautista takes the call. At the price, she's a logical third wheel on your exotics without breaking the bank.

Race 6

10:45 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eight-horse maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs with one scratched runner — Bo Diddley stands out on ratings, but a couple of others lurk at appealing prices in what should be a spirited early pace.

win4Bo DiddleyML 5/2

Bo Diddley carries the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.81 and gets Emisael Jaramillo for Doug F. O'Neill — a trainer-jockey combo that carries real weight. His average speed figure of 54 leads the field's experienced runners, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the public is clearly on board. In a maiden claimer with this kind of ratings edge, Bo Diddley is a strong top selection.

place9Smokem WickedML 7/2

Smokem Wicked is our place play at 7/2, bringing a 73.21 rating and an average speed figure of 55 that actually leads the field. Drayden Van Dyke takes the mount for Adan Farias, and this horse's combination of raw speed and a capable jockey makes her a live threat to run Bo Diddley down or finish a clear second.

show7The Moe ShowML 3/1

The Moe Show slots in at 3/1 on the morning line with a 56.67 TrackWiz rating and a speed figure of 54. Kyle Frey rides for Steven Miyadi, and this runner's morning line price suggests the connections are sending him out with a real shot. At 3/1, he's not a long price for a show play, but his profile as a horse with consistent figures makes him a reasonable third leg in your trifecta.

Race 7

11:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A five-and-a-half furlong claiming sprint with a clear top choice on ratings, but a fascinating value play at 4/1 with superior speed figures who could turn the race on its head.

win1Des DoigtsML 9/5

Des Doigts tops our ratings at 88.83 and is the 9/5 morning line choice, making this race hinge on whether the public has it right. Ruby Thomas and Tiago Josue Pereira combine on a horse with a 19% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56 — solid numbers for a claiming sprint. The ratings gap here is real, and at 9/5, you're basically being asked to trust the model with minimal overlay.

place7Black MagicianML 4/1

Black Magician is a fascinating play at 4/1 — his 79.46 TrackWiz rating is second in the field, but it's his 36% career win rate that really stands out. Edgar Payeras takes the call for Jesus J. Uranga, and Black Magician's average speed figure of 57 actually leads the entire field. If he fires, he's the one most likely to beat the favorite outright, making him a prime exacta partner.

show6TapaloML 3/1

Tapalo at 3/1 is worth including in multi-horse exotic bets as our show selection. Kazushi Kimura rides for Steve R. Knapp, and a 65.31 rating with a 56 average speed figure puts this runner in the mix on raw talent. A 16% career win rate is modest, but in a pace that figures to be honest, a closer with Kimura's timing can pick up a piece.

Race 8

11:47 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse field goes five furlongs in this claiming sprint, and our top pick is lurking at a morning line that offers genuine value over the public's likely favorite.

win10Honorable GalML 5/1

Honorable Gal is the TrackWiz top pick at 84.17 and draws post 10 — an interesting spot in a five-furlong sprint where gate speed matters. Ricardo S. Ramirez brings a live book of business at this meet, and the 16% career win rate is offset by the raw rating that leads this field by a solid margin. Jesus J. Uranga trains, and that barn has multiple horses working well on this card — a positive angle worth noting at 5/1 on the morning line.

place8NokieML 2/1

Nokie is the 2/1 morning line choice and second in our ratings at 74.63, with a 21% career win rate and an average speed figure of 56 that ties the top tier. Armando Aguilar rides for Mark Rheinford, and this runner's combination of public support and solid numbers makes her a safe place play — though the shorter price cuts into the exotic value.

show1Rock N Roll SongML 4/1

Rock N Roll Song rounds out our sequence at 4/1 with a 68.44 rating and a 22% career win rate — respectable numbers that put this horse right in the mix. Edgar Payeras rides for the Uranga barn, same as the top pick, giving the stable a one-two shot at the win. At a sprint distance of five furlongs, a horse with a 55 average speed figure and a confident jockey booking can absolutely grab a piece.

Race 9

12:17 AM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a stakes race at six furlongs featuring a horse with a perfect career record — but our model sides with a different runner at the top, making this the most intriguing betting race on the card.

win4Billie HolidayML 9/2

Billie Holiday leads our TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 and owns a stunning 50% career win rate — this is a horse that knows how to win. Drayden Van Dyke rides for Steven Miyadi, and the 9/2 morning line makes her a genuine value play in a stakes field where the public may be drifting elsewhere. Her average speed figure of 55 is solid, and her combination of class and consistency should put her right in the thick of it down the lane.

place6MohavenML 2/1

Mohaven is the 2/1 morning line choice with a 66.41 rating and a 37% career win rate that ranks second in the field. Kyle Frey picks up the mount for John W. Sadler — a trainer who consistently has horses ready for sprints at this level. At 2/1, the return is modest, but Mohaven's consistency and Sadler's stakes record make him a reliable piece of your place and exacta bets.

show1La Ville LumiereML 7/2

La Ville Lumiere at 7/2 is our show selection, with a 65.70 rating and a 22% career win rate for Michael W. McCarthy. Kazushi Kimura takes the call, and this runner's average speed figure of 54 keeps her in range of the leaders in a six-furlong stakes. At a fair price in a competitive race, she's worth including in trifecta tickets as a horse who can hang tough in a quality field.

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Today's card at Los Alamitos is clean, fast, and loaded with angles. Alphabetical Order, Charmz Away, and Tee N Off are your free best bets to start the afternoon. If you want the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and our take on Billie Holiday in the stakes — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. Check out TrackWiz Premium and don't go to the windows blind.

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