Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Picks & Predictions — July 5, 2026

Mr. Disrespectful brings a 30% career win rate to this race — tops in the field — and posts a 51.58 TrackWiz rating with Kazushi Kimura, one of the meet's elite pilots. Trainer Craig Dollase is sharp with this horse type, and if Bartholdy gets shuffled back or faces any trouble, this one is right there to capitalize. The 3/1 price is fair for a horse who figures to be in the thick of things late.

Whiskyginandbrandy is a sneaky show option at 8/1 under trainer Steve Knapp, who saddles two horses in this race — suggesting he has confidence in both. The 45.29 TrackWiz rating and 21% career win rate aren't glamorous, but the pace setup at seven furlongs could set up for a closer, and Tiago Pereira is a capable handler. At 8/1, there's enough upside to include in trifectas.

Do It for Dave owns a 61.21 TrackWiz rating and draws the rail-adjacent two-hole, giving Tiago Pereira a chance to find a comfortable spot early in this sprint. Trainer Steve Knapp has a knack for having horses ready in dirt sprints at Los Alamitos, and the 7/2 morning line positions this one as a key place contender. The 3% career win rate is a concern for win purposes, but place money at this price is worth chasing.

Essential Nation comes in with the most impressive career win rate in the field at 33% and a 61.01 TrackWiz rating that's essentially a coin flip with the place pick. Peter Miller is a perennial top trainer, and Ali Husain gets the mount. The 5/2 morning line makes this the public's second choice, and the show position is well-earned — this horse knows how to hit the board.

Hydroplane posts the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 66.24 and draws the six hole under Alfredo Bautista for trainer Gloria Haley. With no average speed figure on record, there's some mystery here — but the rating suggests strong workout or underlying form data. At 8/1, this is a legitimate place contender and a smart exotic inclusion.

Tight Dally is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 under Peter Eurton — one of Southern California's top training names — with a 65.02 TrackWiz rating. Armando Ayuso gets the call, and while our analysis ranks this horse third in the field, the combination of a top trainer and a respected jockey makes Tight Dally a lock for the show position and a key leg in any trifecta.

Goodnight Nellie brings the highest average speed figure in the field at 57 and a strong 30% career win rate — numbers that suggest this horse consistently fires big efforts. Trainer Andy Mathis has her in good form, and Cesar Belmont knows how to rate a horse over a mile. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and she's the most dangerous horse to Cecilia Street in a potential pace setup.

We the Hobby gets the Peter Miller treatment here at 4/1 with Kazushi Kimura up — that's a serious rider-trainer combo that rarely goes to the post without a plan. The 68.03 TrackWiz rating slots this one third in the field, and while the career win rate has yet to get going, Miller's runners frequently improve with each start. A useful show anchor and exotic play at a workable price.

Perfect Smile is the morning-line second choice at 2/1 with Peter Miller saddling and Kazushi Kimura in the irons — a combination that routinely produces results at this meet. The 58.33 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure give this horse legitimate place credentials. In a maiden sprint, Miller-Kimura first-time connections are worth taking seriously at any price.

My Babycakes draws the six hole under Emisael Jaramillo for trainer Doug O'Neill — a Hall of Fame conditioner who is always dangerous in maiden events. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating is third in the active field, and the 52 average speed figure suggests a closer who can benefit from pace pressure up front. At 3/1, this is a sensible show play and trifecta component.

Violences Ohr is a genuine value angle at 15/1 with a 59.47 TrackWiz rating that slots her second in the field. Trainer Jesus Uranga keeps this one sharp, and Francisco Orduna-Rojas knows the Los Alamitos surface. Seven percent career wins suggests she's been competitive without closing the deal — place money at 15/1 is exactly the kind of bet that pays for a bad week.

Dustem Too catches the eye at 15/1 despite a 33% career win rate — the joint-best in this field alongside Emma G and Forum Confidential. Tim Yakteen is a trainer who places horses with precision, and Welfin Orantes adds local track knowledge. A 57.45 TrackWiz rating and that win rate make this a legitimate show contender who the market is significantly undervaluing.

Factor P rates second in the field at 55.0 with a 55 average speed figure and draws the six hole with Armando Ayuso for trainer Antonio Garcia. Garcia is a consistent presence at Los Alamitos who rarely wastes a start, and Ayuso is one of the more experienced local riders. At 4/1, Factor P is a natural place partner with the top pick and a solid trifecta key.

Last Chance Darcy checks in third on the TrackWiz scale at 53.33, posting a 55 average speed figure for trainer Aggie Ordonez and drawing Welfin Orantes from the 11 hole. The 5/1 morning line is fair, and in a 12-horse maiden field with no previous winners, any horse showing this level of consistency in the data deserves respect. Solid show anchor and a reasonable trifecta fill.

Lit is the 2/1 morning-line choice from the 12 hole under Armando Ayuso for trainer Richard Baltas — and Baltas is not a conditioner who accepts poor odds without good reason. The 58.33 TrackWiz rating slots this one second in the field, and while there's no average speed figure on record, the pedigree and barn suggest first-out readiness. In the exacta beneath Mystic Moses, Lit is a strong play.

Proof He's Fast is third on the TrackWiz scale at 53.33 and draws the two post under Cesar Belmont for trainer Andy Mathis. Mathis has a steady hand with first-time starters and short-field maidens, and Belmont is a capable enough rider to find a clean trip from the inside. The 5/1 morning line is inviting — this is a horse who could easily hit the board in a field with significant uncertainty at the top.

See Through It is essentially deadlocked with the top pick at 78.68 on the TrackWiz scale and brings a 31% career win rate to the table. Trainer Librado Barocio has this one ready, and Kyle Frey has been a consistent performer at the meet. The 7/2 morning line suggests the public respects this runner — and for good reason. A natural exacta partner with Devil Be Me.

Smokem Ez rounds out the top three at 77.59 on the TrackWiz scale, with a 21% career win rate and Armando Aguilar in the irons for trainer Martin Valenzuela Jr. The 6/1 morning line offers a touch of value for a horse rated within three points of the top pick, and in a tightly bunched 12-horse field, the difference between first and third can come down to a single stride. A legitimate show contender and a smart trifecta fill.