Daily Picks

Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Picks & Predictions — July 5, 2026

Sunday, July 5, 202611 racesLos Alamitos Thoroughbred

Happy post-holiday Sunday at Los Alamitos. The track is open under clear skies and 80°F — ideal conditions for a fast, sealed-up dirt surface that should favor early speed all afternoon. Eleven races are on the board, all on the main track, ranging from maiden claimers to allowance optional claiming spots, so there's plenty of variety to dig into whether you're here for a quick pick or building a full-card ticket.

Two angles jump off the page right away. First, the class mix is wide — you've got raw maiden claimers rubbing elbows with more seasoned allowance horses later in the card, which means pace and class-drop angles will be worth tracking from gate one. Second, with no rain in the forecast and a clean, fast surface expected, high speed figures from the recent past should translate cleanly today. That's great news for a few of our top picks who have posted their best numbers under similar conditions.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A clear class standout tops this Starter Optional Claiming sprint, but a pair of live longshots at juicy prices could make the exotics very interesting.

win2Pocket VenusML 2/1

Pocket Venus is the one to beat in this 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprint, and it's not particularly close on the TrackWiz ratings — an 88.54 figure towers over the field. Trainer Mark Glatt is one of the sharpest conditioners in Southern California, and with Abel Lezcano in the irons, this horse has all the pieces. A 28% career win rate underscores the consistency, and the 2/1 morning line is short but fair given the dominance of the numbers.

place6Lady GregoryML 5/2

Lady Gregory is the natural backup here at 5/2, sporting a field-best 35% career win rate and a solid 77.01 TrackWiz rating. Trainer Steve Knapp keeps his runners sharp, and Armando Ayuso knows this track well. At fair odds, she's a comfortable fill in exactas beneath the top pick.

show5Blessed AngelML 12/1

Blessed Angel is the value play of the race at 12/1 morning line despite owning a 73.06 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field. That 34% career win rate is no fluke, and trainer Vann Belvoir has the horse ready. The morning line feels generous for a horse with these underlying numbers, making her a strong show anchor and a sneaky exacta partner.

Race 2

8:27 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep claiming mile shapes up as a wide-open affair with the morning-line favorite nowhere near the top of the TrackWiz ratings — value seekers, pay attention.

win6Perfect LifeML 15/1

Perfect Life is the TrackWiz top-rated horse in this field at 69.58 despite going off at 15/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect worth exploiting. The 15% career win rate is modest, but the underlying speed and class profile outpace what the odds suggest. Trainer Jose Valdez has this runner pointing here, and Armando Aguilar is a capable hand around the Los Alamitos oval. This is the definition of a value play on a card where the public may overlook her.

place8Love Our FamilyML 5/1

Love Our Family checks in with a 64.18 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate, making her a solid place contender from the eight hole. Trainer Gary Stute knows how to place horses, and the one-mile trip suits a closer profile. At 5/1, she's a fair price in the exotics.

show3Catalina CocktailML 3/1

Catalina Cocktail brings John Sadler's barn credentials to the table — always worth noting at any level — and posts a 63.46 TrackWiz rating with Emisael Jaramillo up. The 3/1 morning line makes her the public's second choice, and while our analysis rates her third, she's absolutely a legitimate show option in a field where the top two are at double-digit prices.

Race 3

8:54 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

Bartholdy looks like a near-mortal lock in this Starter Allowance at seven furlongs, but Mr. Disrespectful offers a live alternative if the favorite gets beat on pace.

win3BartholdyML 7/5

Bartholdy's 89.42 TrackWiz rating is the highest mark on this entire seven-race stretch tonight, and the 7/5 morning line reflects what the connections already know. Trainer Steve Knapp has been excellent at placing horses in spots they can dominate, and Antonio Fresu is the right rider to control or stalk the pace at seven furlongs. A 17% career win rate may seem modest, but in the context of a Starter Allowance field, these numbers are head and shoulders above the competition.

place1Mr. DisrespectfulML 3/1

Mr. Disrespectful brings a 30% career win rate to this race — tops in the field — and posts a 51.58 TrackWiz rating with Kazushi Kimura, one of the meet's elite pilots. Trainer Craig Dollase is sharp with this horse type, and if Bartholdy gets shuffled back or faces any trouble, this one is right there to capitalize. The 3/1 price is fair for a horse who figures to be in the thick of things late.

show5WhiskyginandbrandyML 8/1

Whiskyginandbrandy is a sneaky show option at 8/1 under trainer Steve Knapp, who saddles two horses in this race — suggesting he has confidence in both. The 45.29 TrackWiz rating and 21% career win rate aren't glamorous, but the pace setup at seven furlongs could set up for a closer, and Tiago Pereira is a capable handler. At 8/1, there's enough upside to include in trifectas.

The first three races on the card are unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and they give you a solid taste of what today's card has to offer. Pocket Venus opens the day in a Starter Optional Claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs and comes in as a morning-line favorite we're comfortable standing behind — our TrackWiz rating of 88.54 puts her among the best-rated horses on the entire card. In Race 2, Perfect Life jumps out as the most intriguing play of the free portion: a 15/1 morning-line longshot in a one-mile claimer who our analysis pegs as a live overlaid runner with real upset potential. Don't let that price scare you off without looking closer. Then in Race 3, Bartholdy is the strongest top-line rating of the free trio at 89.42 — the morning line has him as a 7/5 favorite in the Starter Allowance at 7 furlongs, and frankly that price might be generous given what he brings to the table.

On a fast, sunny Los Alamitos surface, early pace will matter throughout the card. In these shorter sprint distances, horses that can get clean trips near the front and sustain their speed around the tight turns tend to have an edge — keep that in mind as you assess the free picks and build your approach for the rest of the afternoon.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:21 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 11-horse claiming sprint has a clear TrackWiz standout that the morning line underestimates — a rare spot where the best-rated horse is also a value play.

win10EielsonML 5/1

Eielson tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 in a field where the next-best runner is more than 20 points back — that's a meaningful separation. Craig Dollase sends this one out with Edgar Payeras up, a jockey who knows this track intimately. The 5/1 morning line is inviting given the rating gap, and while the 10% career win rate is on the lighter side, the class and speed profile here suggest that number is about to improve.

place2Do It for DaveML 7/2

Do It for Dave owns a 61.21 TrackWiz rating and draws the rail-adjacent two-hole, giving Tiago Pereira a chance to find a comfortable spot early in this sprint. Trainer Steve Knapp has a knack for having horses ready in dirt sprints at Los Alamitos, and the 7/2 morning line positions this one as a key place contender. The 3% career win rate is a concern for win purposes, but place money at this price is worth chasing.

show9Essential NationML 5/2

Essential Nation comes in with the most impressive career win rate in the field at 33% and a 61.01 TrackWiz rating that's essentially a coin flip with the place pick. Peter Miller is a perennial top trainer, and Ali Husain gets the mount. The 5/2 morning line makes this the public's second choice, and the show position is well-earned — this horse knows how to hit the board.

Race 5

9:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A deep maiden claiming sprint with no prior winners in the field makes this a form-reading puzzle — TrackWiz analysis points to a pair of overlooked runners outrating the morning-line favorite.

win7Bretts AcclaimML 10/1

Bretts Acclaim sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 76.88 while going off at 10/1 on the morning line — that's one of the bigger gaps on the card tonight. Trainer Robert Lucas has this horse ready from the seven slot, and Cristobal Herrera is comfortable around Los Alamitos. In a maiden field where nobody has broken their maiden, the strongest underlying numbers deserve respect, and this one has a real price attached.

place6HydroplaneML 8/1

Hydroplane posts the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 66.24 and draws the six hole under Alfredo Bautista for trainer Gloria Haley. With no average speed figure on record, there's some mystery here — but the rating suggests strong workout or underlying form data. At 8/1, this is a legitimate place contender and a smart exotic inclusion.

show4Tight DallyML 7/5

Tight Dally is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 under Peter Eurton — one of Southern California's top training names — with a 65.02 TrackWiz rating. Armando Ayuso gets the call, and while our analysis ranks this horse third in the field, the combination of a top trainer and a respected jockey makes Tight Dally a lock for the show position and a key leg in any trifecta.

Race 6

10:19 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Cecilia Street looks like the class of this Allowance Optional Claiming mile, but Goodnight Nellie's speed figures and win rate make the exacta a compelling wager.

win2Cecilia StreetML 5/2

Cecilia Street rates as the best horse in this field at 87.81 on the TrackWiz scale, and trainer Leonard Powell has her pointed at the right spot. Antonio Fresu has been riding with confidence, and a 25% career win rate speaks to a reliable, honest racehorse. The 5/2 morning line is reasonable — this is a deserving favorite, not an overlay — and the one-mile dirt trip plays to her strengths.

place4Goodnight NellieML 7/2

Goodnight Nellie brings the highest average speed figure in the field at 57 and a strong 30% career win rate — numbers that suggest this horse consistently fires big efforts. Trainer Andy Mathis has her in good form, and Cesar Belmont knows how to rate a horse over a mile. The 7/2 morning line is fair, and she's the most dangerous horse to Cecilia Street in a potential pace setup.

show6We the HobbyML 4/1

We the Hobby gets the Peter Miller treatment here at 4/1 with Kazushi Kimura up — that's a serious rider-trainer combo that rarely goes to the post without a plan. The 68.03 TrackWiz rating slots this one third in the field, and while the career win rate has yet to get going, Miller's runners frequently improve with each start. A useful show anchor and exotic play at a workable price.

Race 7

10:48 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

With Stormy Gal scratched and 11 maidens left standing, Dad's Bad Bunny is a dominant TrackWiz standout in a wide-open 5 1/2-furlong sprint.

win1Dad's Bad BunnyML 7/2

Dad's Bad Bunny leads this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — a significant gap over the next competitor — and trainer Jamey Thomas sends this one out from the one hole with Edgar Payeras up. In a competitive maiden field, that kind of ratings separation is hard to ignore. The 7/2 morning line is fair but may drift in a large field, which would only sweeten the value. Payeras is a reliable pilot around the tight Los Alamitos turns.

place2Perfect SmileML 2/1

Perfect Smile is the morning-line second choice at 2/1 with Peter Miller saddling and Kazushi Kimura in the irons — a combination that routinely produces results at this meet. The 58.33 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure give this horse legitimate place credentials. In a maiden sprint, Miller-Kimura first-time connections are worth taking seriously at any price.

show6My BabycakesML 3/1

My Babycakes draws the six hole under Emisael Jaramillo for trainer Doug O'Neill — a Hall of Fame conditioner who is always dangerous in maiden events. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating is third in the active field, and the 52 average speed figure suggests a closer who can benefit from pace pressure up front. At 3/1, this is a sensible show play and trifecta component.

Race 8

11:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Elsa Dutton is a dominant top-rated runner in a sprawling 12-horse claiming field, but a pair of double-digit longshots with solid TrackWiz numbers could turn the exotics into a nice score.

win3Elsa DuttonML 7/2

Elsa Dutton tops this 12-horse claiming field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — tied for the highest on the entire card — while sitting at just 7/2 on the morning line. Trainer Aggie Ordonez has this mare pointing well, and Armando Ayuso in the irons is a strong rider who navigates large fields effectively. The 12% career win rate looks modest, but the underlying speed and class numbers say this horse is in the right spot to break through at six furlongs.

place12Violences OhrML 15/1

Violences Ohr is a genuine value angle at 15/1 with a 59.47 TrackWiz rating that slots her second in the field. Trainer Jesus Uranga keeps this one sharp, and Francisco Orduna-Rojas knows the Los Alamitos surface. Seven percent career wins suggests she's been competitive without closing the deal — place money at 15/1 is exactly the kind of bet that pays for a bad week.

show6Dustem TooML 15/1

Dustem Too catches the eye at 15/1 despite a 33% career win rate — the joint-best in this field alongside Emma G and Forum Confidential. Tim Yakteen is a trainer who places horses with precision, and Welfin Orantes adds local track knowledge. A 57.45 TrackWiz rating and that win rate make this a legitimate show contender who the market is significantly undervaluing.

Race 9

11:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Jacklyn Lucas is a clearcut TrackWiz leader in this Maiden Special Weight, but the wide-open maiden ranks and a full 12-horse field create exotic opportunities up and down the order.

win4Jacklyn LucasML 2/1

Jacklyn Lucas is the top-rated horse in this MSW field at 88.54 — one of the highest marks on the card — and goes off as the 2/1 morning-line favorite with Antonio Fresu up for trainer Steven Miyadi. Maiden Special Weight races often reward horses with the best underlying form, and this one's profile makes a compelling case. The combination of a sharp trainer, an in-form rider, and a top rating makes Jacklyn Lucas a confident play at a reasonable price.

place6Factor PML 4/1

Factor P rates second in the field at 55.0 with a 55 average speed figure and draws the six hole with Armando Ayuso for trainer Antonio Garcia. Garcia is a consistent presence at Los Alamitos who rarely wastes a start, and Ayuso is one of the more experienced local riders. At 4/1, Factor P is a natural place partner with the top pick and a solid trifecta key.

show11Last Chance DarcyML 5/1

Last Chance Darcy checks in third on the TrackWiz scale at 53.33, posting a 55 average speed figure for trainer Aggie Ordonez and drawing Welfin Orantes from the 11 hole. The 5/1 morning line is fair, and in a 12-horse maiden field with no previous winners, any horse showing this level of consistency in the data deserves respect. Solid show anchor and a reasonable trifecta fill.

Race 10

12:11 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Mystic Moses separates himself from a deep MSW sprint field on the TrackWiz scale, while the morning-line second choice Lit adds an intriguing 2/1 exacta angle.

win8Mystic MosesML 7/2

Mystic Moses leads this 12-horse MSW field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and boasts the highest average speed figure in the field at 56 — a notable edge in a sprint where raw speed often determines the outcome. Trainer Steven Miyadi and jockey Kazushi Kimura form one of the sharper connections at this meet, and the 7/2 morning line offers real value given the ratings gap. In a field full of first-timers with no average speed on record, a horse who has already shown 56 speed has a tangible competitive edge.

place12LitML 2/1

Lit is the 2/1 morning-line choice from the 12 hole under Armando Ayuso for trainer Richard Baltas — and Baltas is not a conditioner who accepts poor odds without good reason. The 58.33 TrackWiz rating slots this one second in the field, and while there's no average speed figure on record, the pedigree and barn suggest first-out readiness. In the exacta beneath Mystic Moses, Lit is a strong play.

show2Proof He's FastML 5/1

Proof He's Fast is third on the TrackWiz scale at 53.33 and draws the two post under Cesar Belmont for trainer Andy Mathis. Mathis has a steady hand with first-time starters and short-field maidens, and Belmont is a capable enough rider to find a clean trip from the inside. The 5/1 morning line is inviting — this is a horse who could easily hit the board in a field with significant uncertainty at the top.

Race 11

12:38 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Race 11 is a fascinating Allowance Optional Claiming closer with three horses clustered tightly at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — and the best of them is going off at 8/1.

win4Devil Be MeML 8/1

Devil Be Me is the top-rated horse in this 12-runner field at 79.79 and sits at a generous 8/1 on the morning line — making this one of the clearest value plays on tonight's card. A 33% career win rate is among the best in the field, and trainer Genaro Vallejo has quietly placed this horse in a spot where the numbers say he can win. Francisco Orduna-Rojas gets the call, and at 6 1/2 furlongs on the Los Alamitos dirt, a horse with a 55 average speed figure and these win percentages has every right to be here.

place3See Through ItML 7/2

See Through It is essentially deadlocked with the top pick at 78.68 on the TrackWiz scale and brings a 31% career win rate to the table. Trainer Librado Barocio has this one ready, and Kyle Frey has been a consistent performer at the meet. The 7/2 morning line suggests the public respects this runner — and for good reason. A natural exacta partner with Devil Be Me.

show7Smokem EzML 6/1

Smokem Ez rounds out the top three at 77.59 on the TrackWiz scale, with a 21% career win rate and Armando Aguilar in the irons for trainer Martin Valenzuela Jr. The 6/1 morning line offers a touch of value for a horse rated within three points of the top pick, and in a tightly bunched 12-horse field, the difference between first and third can come down to a single stride. A legitimate show contender and a smart trifecta fill.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: Los Alamitos is serving up a full 11-race dirt card under perfect summer conditions, and TrackWiz has you covered from gate to wire. Bartholdy is the play we feel best about top-to-bottom, Perfect Life is the longshot angle worth a serious look, and the premium card has multiple spots where we see genuine value hiding behind the morning line. Free picks are live now — and subscribers, your full race-by-race breakdown is ready to go. Good luck out there today.

← Back to all picks

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3