Daily Picks

Los Alamitos Thoroughbred Picks & Predictions — July 4, 2026

Saturday, July 4, 20269 racesLos Alamitos Thoroughbred

Happy Fourth of July from Los Alamitos — and what a way to spend the holiday than with nine races of Southern California dirt action under comfortable 79-degree skies. Partly cloudy conditions mean no heat stress and a track that should play fair all afternoon, which is great news for speed horses on this tight oval.

Today's card runs the full gamut — a pair of maiden claimers, straight claiming races, a Starter Allowance, two Allowance Optional Claiming bouts, and a Stakes race as the centerpiece of the evening. Nine races, plenty of angles, and a few spots where the morning line looks beatable.

The headline draw is Race 8, where the heavy favorite Sweet Azteca enters at 3/5 on the morning line in the Stakes going 6 1/2 furlongs. But don't sleep on the undercard — our TrackWiz ratings surfaced some genuinely compelling numbers throughout the early and mid-card that deserve your attention.

Best Bets

Race 1

8:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The top of the card features a tightly-bunched claiming sprint where our ratings separate three legitimate contenders from the rest — expect a competitive pace scenario with value hiding in the middle of the program.

win5Bet the OmML 4/1

Bet the Om tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and comes in at 4/1 on the morning line — a price that feels just right for a horse with a 16% career win rate that outpaces most rivals in this field. That win percentage is legitimately strong for a claiming sprinter, and trainer Troy Dial has the horse positioned in a spot where the distance and surface look familiar. At 5½ furlongs on dirt, early speed can be decisive, and Bet the Om's profile fits a horse that can press or track the pace and pounce. This is our top selection and the foundation of any exotics plays.

place4The Key Is UnityML 5/2

The Key Is Unity (No. 4) holds the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.72 and is reasonably priced at 5/2 on the morning line. The 5% career win rate is admittedly modest, but that figure can reflect a horse that runs consistently without always breaking through — a place horse through and through. With Francisco Orduna-Rojas in the irons and an average speed of 55, this one has the tools to finish within striking distance.

show3Sir NanoML 2/1

Sir Nano rates out at 77.93 and comes off the same barn as the morning-line favorite, with trainer Jesus Nunez sending out two horses in this opener — which is a sign of confidence in the race shape. Edgar Payeras picks up the mount, and with an average speed of 55 matching The Key Is Unity, Sir Nano has enough foot to threaten for a piece. At 2/1 he's short to show, but his presence in exactas and trifectas is worth noting.

Race 2

8:33 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint that's wide open on paper — all seven horses carry a 0% career win rate, making this purely a form-projection exercise, and our ratings reveal a significant gap at the top of the field.

win7Jonny's CapML EVN

Jonny's Cap is the clear standout here with a TrackWiz rating of 90.00 — the highest mark in the field by a comfortable margin — and the morning line agrees, installing this horse as the even-money favorite. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo gets the call for trainer Jorge Periban, and the even-money price reflects confidence from the connections. In a wide-open maiden field where none of these horses have won before, the combination of a top rating and public support at even money is a strong signal. This is as close to a structured single as you'll find in a race this chaotic.

place5KickingitML 8/1

Kickingit sits third in our ratings at 48.33 and opens at 8/1 — that's a juicy price for a horse that profiles as the logical second-best contender once Jonny's Cap is accounted for. Trainer Felix L. Gonzalez puts Henry Reynoso Lopez on board, and an average speed of 54 gives this one enough closing ability to threaten for the place spot. In a maiden field with significant variance, 8/1 to run second is real value.

show4Smokem WickedML 3/1

Smokem Wicked rates at 46.98 and holds the best average speed figure in the field at 55, which matters in a 5½-furlong dash where early position can be everything. Francisco Monroy rides for trainer Adan Farias, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the public respects this one as well. As a show play in a wild maiden race, Smokem Wicked offers a sensible hedge.

Race 3

9:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

This five-furlong claiming sprint for fillies and mares sets up as a battle between a pace-pressing standout and a short-priced favorite, with a sneaky value contender lurking right underneath them.

win3Honorable GalML 3/1

Honorable Gal is the clear top pick with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — the best mark in the field — and comes in at a fair 3/1 on the morning line. Francisco Orduna-Rojas takes the mount for trainer Jesus J. Uranga, who also sends out the horse in the one-hole, giving the barn two shots at the race. With a 14% career win rate and an average speed of 55, Honorable Gal has consistently competitive form, and at five furlongs, a horse with these numbers should be right there at the top of the stretch. This is a confident selection.

place2NokieML 9/5

Nokie is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with a 75.39 rating and a 16% career win rate — among the better marks in this field. Armando Aguilar, one of the more active jockeys on this card, picks up the mount for trainer Mark Rheinford, and an average speed of 55 matches the top contenders. The shorter price limits the upside, but Nokie belongs on your ticket in the place spot as a horse who figures to be competitive throughout.

show4Charmed DreamML 7/2

Charmed Dream has the highest career win percentage in the race at 27% — that's a number that jumps off the page in a field like this. Trainer Jorge Farias sends this one out at 7/2 with Henry Reynoso Lopez up, and an average speed of 54 keeps her in range of the frontrunners. While the 72.91 rating trails our top two picks, a 27% win rate tells you this is a horse that finishes the job when the pieces fall right — worth keeping in your trifecta.

We're giving everyone a free look at Races 1, 2, and 3 to kick off the card. Bet the Om opens the day at 4/1 in a 5 1/2-furlong Claiming sprint — a TrackWiz rating of 85.62 suggests there's legitimate ability here at a price that offers real value against the morning line. In Race 2, Jonny's Cap draws as the even-money chalk in the Maiden Claiming sprint, and a 90.00 TrackWiz rating is the highest mark among our three free races — if that rating holds up under the lights, this one could be a confident play to build a Pick 3 around. Honorable Gal rounds out the free trio in Race 3, a short 5-furlong dirt dash where her 3/1 morning line and 87.08 rating put her squarely in the crosshairs as a value-side top pick.

The consistent theme across the early card: short, sharp sprints on a dry Los Alamitos dirt surface that historically rewards horses who break alertly and get position. Keep an eye on how the first couple of races run — if front-runners are holding on, that pace bias is worth pressing as you move through the card.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Stretching out to a mile in this claiming event reveals a fascinating ratings split, with our top three horses sitting clustered between 76 and 83 while the morning-line favorite ranks fifth in our model — a potential overlay situation worth exploring.

win3Mongolian MaxML 4/1

Mongolian Max tops the TrackWiz ratings in Race 4 at 82.66 and opens at 4/1 with Armando Aguilar taking the mount for trainer Steven Miyadi. A 15% career win rate is steady for a claimer going two turns, and the horse brings an average speed figure of 53 — consistent with the pace expectation at a mile on dirt at Los Alamitos. The 4/1 price is fair for the top-rated horse in the field, and Aguilar's familiarity with the oval is a plus. Structure your exotics around this one.

place4GrandisimoML 8/1

Grandisimo comes in as a value play at 8/1 on the morning line despite owning an 18% career win rate — one of the better marks in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 that slots in right behind our top pick. Abel Lezcano has the mount for trainer Brian T. Cunningham, and this horse's profile suggests a closer who can pick up the pieces at a price. At 8/1 to run second, Grandisimo is the kind of horse that pays for your whole ticket when he gets there.

show5Big CoupeML 8/1

Big Coupe opens at 8/1 with a 25% career win rate — the second-highest in the field — which tells you this horse knows how to finish. Trainer Angela Maria Aquino sends Adrian Escobedo out on a horse that has a 76.33 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 53. In a mile race where pace can get heated early, a horse with Big Coupe's winning background has the résumé to be picking up checks late. Don't leave this one off your trifecta.

Race 5

10:03 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This mile maiden claimer is one of the most intriguing races on the card — a 12-horse field loaded with first-time starters and short-pricers, but our ratings show a clear top contender who has no business going off at 9/5 in a field this weak.

win6Blame It On AbbyML 9/5

Blame It On Abby is the standout here with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in the entire field by a significant margin — and trainer Peter Miller is one of the sharpest conditioners on the Southern California circuit. Edwin A. Maldonado gets the call on this one at 9/5 on the morning line, and an average speed of 55 leads all horses in the field with comparable or better ratings. In a 12-horse maiden field where most of the competition is backed by ratings in the 10-50 range, Blame It On Abby stands in a class of her own. Bet accordingly.

place10By the MoonlightML 4/1

By the Moonlight opens at 4/1 and carries a 72.95 TrackWiz rating — the second-best in the field — for trainer Richard Baltas, who consistently delivers fit horses. Ricardo Gonzalez gets the mount, and an average speed of 52 suggests this one will be doing her best running late, which could be perfect if the early pace gets heated in this large field. At 4/1, the place payoff on a horse rated this clearly second-best is worth building around.

show12Smokem Hot GirlML 10/1

Smokem Hot Girl is our show pick at a tempting 10/1 morning line, with a 72.70 rating that essentially matches By the Moonlight at the top of the second tier. Trainer Felix L. Gonzalez has Alfredo L. Bautista aboard, and with an average speed of 52 in line with the other top contenders, this one has the tools to threaten for the third spot in a big, chaotic maiden field. The 10/1 price makes her a compelling exotic inclusion.

Race 6

10:37 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A starter allowance sprint at 5½ furlongs that shapes up as a two-horse race at the top of our ratings, with an intriguing value play sitting just below them at a price that demands attention.

win1UffdaML 9/5

Uffda is our top selection with an 88.26 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win rate — one of the highest in this field — making this a horse that consistently converts opportunities into victories. Trainer Jorge Farias puts Alfredo L. Bautista up at 9/5 on the morning line, and an average speed of 56 leads the field, suggesting Uffda can dictate pace or sit close and pounce. In a starter allowance, class pedigree matters, and a 28% win rate with a top speed figure is exactly what you want from a horse at this level.

place5FalabellaML 4/1

Falabella is the natural companion to Uffda at the top of the card, rating 85.62 — just three points behind our top pick — and boasting the highest career win rate in the field at 30%. Edgar Payeras gets the call for trainer Charles S. Treece, and at 4/1, Falabella represents genuine value given the profile. A horse that wins 30% of the time and rates this highly on our model is not a throw-in; she's a legitimate threat to upset if Uffda stumbles.

show2Feisty MitoleML 8/1

Feisty Mitole opens at 8/1 with a 74.10 rating and a 28% career win rate — matching Uffda's win percentage, which is remarkable context for an 8/1 shot. Trainer Kristen Watanabe sends Henry Reynoso Lopez out on a horse that, on raw winning percentage, belongs in this conversation. The price reflects some uncertainty — no average speed is listed in our data — but the win rate alone makes Feisty Mitole a must-use in trifectas at that morning line.

Race 7

11:11 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming test at 6½ furlongs draws a deep, competitive field where our ratings are tightly grouped at the top — the pace scenario at this distance could be the deciding factor between the top two picks.

win3Redheaded RebaML 5/1

Redheaded Reba rates out as our top pick at 84.17 with a strong 33% career win rate — tied for the highest in the field alongside Troisieme Etoile — and opens at 5/1 on the morning line, which looks like fair value. Trainer Daniel Dunham sends Tiago Josue Pereira out on a horse that carries an average speed of 55 and has the profile of a consistent performer at this level. At 6½ furlongs, a horse with this kind of win rate and top-of-field rating can settle off the pace and finish with authority. The 5/1 price is worth taking.

place4Dorie MillerML 7/2

Dorie Miller rates just a point behind at 83.01 and opens at 7/2, ridden by Antonio Fresu for trainer Leonard Powell. While the 8% career win rate is modest, this could be a horse whose form is peaking at the right time — and in an allowance optional claimer, fresh, improving form can outweigh historical numbers. The 7/2 morning line suggests the market has spotted something here, and the rating backs it up as a legitimate threat to grab the place spot.

show6TheresasilverlininML 4/1

Theresasilverlinin comes in at 4/1 with a 75.21 rating and a 30% career win rate — one of the better win percentages in the field — under Ricardo Gonzalez for trainer Steve R. Knapp. An average speed of 53 suggests a stalker profile that could benefit from a quick early pace set by others. At 4/1, this horse offers solid show value in exotics and is worth including in your trifecta box.

Race 8

11:43 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

The stakes feature on Independence Day night is headlined by a heavy favorite and a fascinating value card beneath her — but two horses in double digits deserve a longer look for exotic players.

win1Sweet AztecaML 3/5

Sweet Azteca is a legitimate standout, going postward at 3/5 on the morning line with a staggering 77% career win rate — by far the highest on this card or any race today. Trainer Richard Baltas and jockey Armando Ayuso combine on a horse that rates 83.92 in our model, and an average speed of 56 leads or matches the top competitors. Yes, 3/5 is a chalky price, but when a horse wins 77% of the time at this level, you don't fight it — you structure your exotics around her and look for value underneath.

place2MagnificatML 8/1

Magnificat is our place pick at 8/1 — an excellent price for a horse with a 57% career win rate and a 76.14 TrackWiz rating. Antonio Fresu rides for Hall of Famer Richard E. Mandella, one of the most respected trainers in the country, and an average speed of 56 matches Sweet Azteca stride for stride on that metric. If anything can run with the favorite here, Magnificat's credentials — a 57% win rate is extraordinary — suggest she's the most likely candidate to hit the board.

show4A. Z. WildcatML 12/1

A.Z. Wildcat opens at 12/1 with a 40% career win rate — legitimately strong for a stakes contender — and trainer John W. Sadler is no stranger to getting horses ready for spots like this. Hector Isaac Berrios takes the mount, and while the 73.96 rating sits a tier below the top two, a horse with a 40% win rate at 12/1 in a stakes race deserves inclusion in your exotics. If the top two horses have a setback, A.Z. Wildcat is the most logical beneficiary.

Race 9

12:15 AM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The nightcap is a mile allowance optional claimer with a clear top selection in our model, but the real intrigue is a 12/1 morning-line horse sitting just outside our top two that makes for a compelling exacta alternative.

win3Majestic PalisadesML 2/1

Majestic Palisades is our top choice with a 78.34 TrackWiz rating and a 2/1 morning line, backed by Armando Aguilar in the irons for trainer Librado Barocio. A 13% career win rate in a 10-horse allowance field is respectable, and an average speed of 54 keeps this horse in range across two turns at Los Alamitos. Aguilar has been active throughout the card tonight and knows this oval well. At 2/1 for the top-rated horse in a field with significant gaps below the top tier, this is a confident selection.

place4KnowhereML 12/1

Knowhere is the eye-catching value play here at 12/1 on the morning line, with a 73.96 TrackWiz rating that's solidly second-best in the field — and yet the morning line reflects none of that. Trainer Cesar De Alba sends Edgar Payeras out on a horse with a 20% career win rate and an average speed of 54, giving this one the profile of a horse that competes hard every time. At 12/1 to run second, Knowhere is one of the best value plays on the entire card. Get on this in exactas.

show9ScatalotadingdongML 7/2

Scatalotadingdong opens at 7/2 with a 25% career win rate — tied for the highest in this race — and Emisael Jaramillo gets the mount for trainer Leonard Powell. The 65.48 rating trails the top two by a meaningful margin, but a 25% career win rate tells you this horse has a habit of being in the picture when it matters. As a show bet or trifecta inclusion, this one has the closing profile to pick up a piece in a 10-horse field going a mile.

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Bottom line for the Fourth: Jonny's Cap is the strongest-rated free pick on the card, Bet the Om and Honorable Gal offer legitimate value in the openers, and Sweet Azteca looms as the dominant force in the Stakes. It's a full, fun holiday card with real betting opportunities from top to bottom. For pace projections, exotic strategies, and the complete nine-race breakdown, subscribers have everything they need inside TrackWiz. Enjoy the races — and enjoy the fireworks.

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