Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — November 14, 2026

Air Kiss gets a class drop from $35,000 down to $30,000, which is a meaningful concession from connections signaling they want to find a spot she can win. She also posted the top recent race speed in the field at 12.24 sec/furlong — the fastest in-race figure among all 16 starters. The concern is that she's failed to place in her last four races and has a blank 0-for-3 record at Laurel Park specifically. If she can carry that early speed to the wire on the turf, the class relief could unlock something.

Open Range is third-rated at 56.67 and pairs the second-best recent race speed figure (12.51 sec/furlong) with a trainer-jockey duo that's clicked at a 21% win rate and 62% in-the-money rate. Trombetta is a name you want to see on turf routes, and Open Range's raw speed numbers suggest she's been running competitively. She did fail to place last out, so there's a form question, but the class and connections make her a reasonable show play in an open field.

Perpetual Notion is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and ranks second in the field with a 58.33 rating, but what really catches the eye is her workout tab — she drilled the fastest work of the month among all starters at 12.00 sec/furlong. This is a first-time starter with no race speed to evaluate, but Capuano conditioners and sharp drills are a classic 'ready to fire' combination. She showed up in 17.50% of our simulations, making her a logical backup to Ayni.

Bubbling adds some depth to the exotics at 5/1 on the morning line. She ranks third in the field at 53.33 and owns the second-best recent race speed at 12.39 sec/furlong. She's also placed in her only career start — a 100% in-the-money rate that's obviously a small sample but still a live form line. The Jamie Ness-Jaime Rodriguez combo has posted 22% wins and 56% ITM together, adding a trainer-jockey angle worth respecting.

Big Earn sits second in the ratings at 82.71 and posted the third-fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 11.56 sec/furlong. The Trombetta-Ruiz combination has gone 21% wins and 62% ITM together over the past year, which provides a strong trainer-jockey angle. He's won 14.34% of our simulations — just a tick behind Mopo — and brings a 52% in-the-money rate. No major concerns in the data, just a horse lurking behind some high-profile names.

Mopo is a fascinating show play — she carries a 7/5 morning line as the public choice but ranks third in the TrackWiz ratings at 76.25. The form is undeniable: she's placed in every single one of her last seven starts and carries an 87% in-the-money rate. The concerns are real though — she ranked eighth in recent race speed at 12.02 sec/furlong, which is notably slower than the top horses in this field, and she's not on Lasix while ten other entrants are. Use her in the exotics, but the speed figure gap is a legitimate question.

Daring Venture comes in at 6/1 with a 82.71 TrackWiz rating and arguably the most powerful stable combination in the race. The Sheldon Russell–Brittany Russell duo has gone 37% wins and 74% in-the-money over the past year — numbers that are almost hard to believe at a mid-Atlantic track. She's placed in two of her last three starts, owns a 62% in-the-money rate, and won 16.07% of our simulations. This is a legitimate threat to win and outstanding value underneath.

World On Fire ranks third in the ratings at 80.74 and brings the second-fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 11.51 sec/furlong — right on the heels of Brightshininglight. She's placed in three straight starts and four of her last six, showing a consistent late-form trend. Her trainer Roy Peacock Jr. gets an A grade, and the horse won 20.24% of our simulations — actually the highest share in the field. At 5/2 morning line she's not a price, but her form trajectory makes her a must-use in exactas and trifectas.

Southern Gentleman is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and enters with a 50% career win rate and the second-fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 11.75 sec/furlong. The 468-day layoff is the elephant in the room — connections appear to be using this spot to tighten him up after a long absence — but trainer Michael Stidham rates an A, and jockey Jose Batista has gone 19% wins and 49% ITM over the past year. If Stidham says he's ready, that's worth respecting. He won 21.19% of our sims, which makes him a live threat despite the rust.

Frustrated might be the most interesting name in here at 5/2 on the morning line. She carries a 100% career win rate — she's won her only start — and a 100% in-the-money rate to match, and she posted the best recent race speed figure in the field at 11.67 sec/furlong. The Russell-Russell combo adding Sheldon Russell aboard is a live angle; that combination has gone 37% wins and 74% ITM together. She's not the top-rated horse at 57.50, but speed and connections make her a legit exotics piece.

Lux is the most interesting horse in this race at 9/5 on the morning line despite ranking second in the TrackWiz ratings at 82.40. She's placed in four of her last six starts and in both of her most recent races — that's the kind of consistent form you want to see. Her recent race speed figure of 11.92 sec/furlong is third best in the field, and she won 26.67% of our simulations, actually the second-highest share. The jockey grade (C for Gomez) is a mild concern, but the form and figures are hard to dismiss.

Steel the Moment is a first-time-starter type with no published average speed, but what she brings is elite connections and the best workout of the month among all nine runners — a 12.10 sec/furlong drill that ties for the top spot. Mychel Sanchez takes the mount (26% wins, 60% ITM over the past year) and the Sanchez-Trombetta pairing has gone 22% wins and 56% ITM together. She won 15.84% of our simulations, which is a healthy number for an unraced horse. If connections have been pointing to this spot, she's a live threat at 3/2.

Especially is the second half of the Russell stable entry at 6/1 on the morning line and ranks second overall at 82.71. She's placed in seven of ten dirt starts with a 63% in-the-money rate, and she posted the second-fastest recent race speed figure in the field at 12.28 sec/furlong. Mychel Sanchez — 26% wins and 60% ITM — provides A-grade piloting. The slight concern is a workout figure that ranked ninth among the horses in the field, but her race form is what sets her apart. Worth using underneath Waveless in exactas.

Amalfi Drive is priced at 9/2 and brings the top recent race speed figure in the entire field — 12.25 sec/furlong — which is a meaningful edge at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. She's placed in six of nine dirt starts with a 60% in-the-money rate, and trainer Michael Stidham (A-minus) paired with Jose Batista (19% wins, 49% ITM) is a solid combination. She won 13.81% of our simulations, making her a legitimate third option. Use her to complete trifectors behind the Russell pair.

Vida is the second-rated horse in the field at 82.71 and brings the best pure form profile of anyone not named Cool Customer — she's placed in nine of thirteen dirt starts, a 62% in-the-money rate that is exceptional for a maiden. She also posted the second-fastest recent race speed in the field at 12.36 sec/furlong. Jose Vargas rides with an A jockey grade and a 18% win rate and 54% ITM over the past year. At 6/1 morning line, she offers meaningful value underneath the favorite.

Hopeygot is the value piece at 10/1 morning line despite ranking third in the TrackWiz ratings at 76.88. She's posted the best recent race speed in the field at 12.30 sec/furlong and has placed in all three of her dirt starts — a perfect 3-for-3 in-the-money rate on the surface. The concern is that she's not on Lasix while eight rivals are, and her workout rank was seventh in the field. But a 75% career in-the-money rate and the top speed figure make her a logical show play and an exotic anchor at a price.