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Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — October 17, 2026

October 17, 20269 racesAll Laurel Park picks

Laurel Park saddles up a 9-race all-dirt card this Saturday under overcast skies with temperatures sitting at a crisp 53°F. The cool, cloudy conditions are the kind that tend to keep the track honest — no extreme heat drying out the surface — so expect a consistent strip that should play fair for closers and pressers alike.

The card stretches from a 5½-furlong maiden claimer to a pair of route allowances, giving bettors plenty of angles to work with across the full spectrum of condition types. Maiden races, claimers, allowances, and a starter optional claimer are all in the mix — in other words, something for every handicapping style.

The race that's got our attention most is Race 9, where morning-line even-money shot Horsing Around carries a TrackWiz rating of 90.0 — the highest on the card. That number doesn't come around often in a 5½-furlong sprint, and we'll have plenty to say about it in the premium breakdown.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs where TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear top three but a vulnerable morning-line favorite in Repurpose — the kind of race where price shopping matters.

win5Notion in MotionML 7/2

Notion in Motion tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.85 despite going off at a generous 7/2 on the morning line, making this a rare case where the best-rated horse also offers fair value. The #5 posts the field's highest average speed figure at 56, a tick better than Repurpose and meaningfully ahead of the pack. Charlie Marquez gets the call for trainer David P. Duggan, and in a maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs, that early pace advantage from a solid speed figure can be the difference-maker. This is our top selection.

place9RepurposeML 9/5

Repurpose is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and backs it up with a 78.33 TrackWiz rating and the second-best avg speed (57) in the field — actually the highest raw number here, which is worth noting. Trainer Keri Brion has a strong reputation for having horses ready to fire first out, and Gavin Ashton is a capable hand. We like her for the exacta slot even if the win price is thin.

show2PatuxentML 15/1

Patuxent is a massive overlay on paper — a 69.58 TrackWiz rating going off at 15/1 under Angel Cruz for trainer Katharine M. Voss. In a wide-open maiden event where morning-line odds don't always reflect true ability, Patuxent's rating towers over the rest of the field outside the top two. At that price, she's an attractive show bet and a live exotic play.

Race 2

4:33 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A loaded six-furlong claimer with three horses bunched tightly at the top of the TrackWiz ratings, and a potential pace battle that could set things up perfectly for the closers.

win7Fayes HeartML 7/2

Fayes Heart leads our ratings at 86.35 and jumps off the page with a 36% career win rate — the highest in the field by a wide margin. Trainer John J. Robb also saddles the morning-line co-favorite Hell Ofa Hillbilly, so there's barn confidence here, and Xavier Perez picks up the mount. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a horse that wins more than one-in-three times in her career posting the top TrackWiz score — that's a strong combination any day of the week.

place1Hell Ofa HillbillyML 5/2

Hell Ofa Hillbilly opens at 5/2 and backs that favoritism up with an 81.21 rating and a 20% career win percentage under Ronaldo Rodriguez for trainer John J. Robb. Both of Robb's runners in this field rate highly, which tells you the barn is live. With an avg speed of 54 matching the field's mid-range, Hillbilly should be forwardly placed and fighting at the wire.

show6SometimeML EVN

Sometime is the morning-line even-money chalk, which means the public sees something we respect, though our model rates her slightly behind Fayes Heart at 81.0. Trainer Phillip Capuano teams with Leandro M. Briceno, and an 18% career win rate gives this runner legitimate credentials. At even money she's light for the win, but she's a safe show anchor in exotics given her top-three rating.

Race 3

5:06 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep 12-horse maiden special weight going a flat mile on the dirt, with the TrackWiz ratings separating a legitimate three-horse tier from a wide-open rest of the field — and trainer connections could matter here.

win4MeshachML 7/2

Meshach tops our leaderboard at 78.46 for trainer Phil Schoenthal, with Jevian Toledo in the irons — a strong combination in a maiden special weight at Laurel. The #4 posts a 53 avg speed, right in line with the top contenders, and the 7/2 morning line reflects genuine public confidence. In a mile race where pace often sorts itself out over the final quarter, Meshach's rating edge gives him the narrowest of advantages over a talented bunch.

place1The Wrath of DavidML 5/2

The Wrath of David rates just a hair behind Meshach at 77.55 and goes off at 5/2, making him the public's top choice despite our model having him second. Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi sends this one out with Horacio Karamanos, and a 53 avg speed ties him with the top horses. In a maiden race this competitive, the place slot is exactly where we want The Wrath of David — he's live to hit the board even if Meshach gets past him late.

show5Bishop MoonML 4/1

Bishop Moon is our third-rated horse at 74.57 and offers the best value in the show spot at 4/1 on the morning line. Vincent Cheminaud pilots him for trainer Mark Shuman, and the 53 avg speed matches the top tier evenly. In a 12-horse maiden field with this much parity, including Bishop Moon in your trifecta tickets is a smart spread at a price that won't crush your exacta payouts.

The first three races on the card are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and they cover a nice cross-section of the day's conditions. Race 1 kicks things off with a maiden claimer at 5½ furlongs, where Notion in Motion (7/2 ML, rating 85.85) looks like a legitimate contender to break his maiden against a soft field. Race 2 moves into the claiming ranks at 6 furlongs, and Fayes Heart (7/2 ML, rating 86.35) rates as our top selection — that rating nudge above Race 1 matters in a field where class separation can be tough to find. Race 3 stretches out to a flat mile in a Maiden Special Weight, where Meshach (7/2 ML, rating 78.46) draws our top pick nod, though the lower rating tells you this one is more open and worth treating as a prime exotics race rather than a single-out play.

One thread connecting these free races: the 7/2 morning line on all three top picks signals the oddsmakers aren't handing anything away early. There's genuine value to be found if any of these horses are underlays at the windows — TrackWiz analysis says they're worth backing, but shop for the best number before you commit.

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Race 4

5:39 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

This seven-furlong claimer features an intriguing split between the TrackWiz top-rated horse and the heavy morning-line favorite — which means the value is squarely with our top pick at 5/1.

win3Ready for MagicML 5/1

Ready for Magic leads all horses in this field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating while going off at 5/1 on the morning line — a meaningful overlay given the public has Share Success installed as the 7/5 chalk. Trainer Somraj Singh sends out Ready for Magic with Ismerio Villalobos, and a 53 avg speed over seven furlongs on dirt gives this mare a class edge the morning line may be undervaluing. When our model's top-rated runner is nearly 4-to-1 longer than the betting favorite, that's a spot we lean into.

place6Share SuccessML 7/5

Share Success is the 7/5 morning-line favorite and owns a 28% career win rate — the second-highest in the field — which explains the public support. Trainer Jamie Ness teams with Martin Chuan, and while the 72.4 TrackWiz rating trails Ready for Magic, the consistency that comes with a 28% win rate is hard to dismiss. At those odds she's thin to win, but she figures to be there at the wire for the place.

show4MaidstoneML 6/1

Maidstone rates third at 71.73 with a 16% career win percentage and opens at 6/1, giving her show value in a field where the top two are likely to dominate. Trainer Antonio Machado puts Jose E. Vargas up, and the 52 avg speed is competitive for this level. If there's any pace trouble between the top two, Maidstone at 6/1 could sneak into the exacta as well.

Race 5

6:09 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

An 11-horse allowance going a flat mile that sets up as a fascinating battle between the TrackWiz top-rated runner at 5/2 and a cluster of contenders offering real value at double-digit prices.

win10Patrol Squad SixML 5/2

Patrol Squad Six heads our ratings at 85.3 and posts the field's best avg speed figure at 55, both of which translate well to a one-mile test on the Laurel dirt. The 5/2 morning line respects the horse without making him prohibitive, and trainer Michael Stidham puts Jevian Toledo — one of Laurel's most reliable riders — in the saddle. With a 9% career win rate, Patrol Squad Six hasn't won at a gaudy clip, but the raw figures suggest he's been running against tougher competition and may be dropping into a spot where he can get the job done.

place7Vaya JeffeML 10/1

Vaya Jeffe is our place pick and a genuine value play at 10/1 — a 76.88 rating in a field where the public has largely ignored him. Trainer Anthony Farrior sends him out with Ruben Silvera, and a 20% career win rate says this horse knows how to find the winner's circle. At those morning-line odds, including Vaya Jeffe on top of Patrol Squad Six in the exacta is the kind of contrarian angle that can pay handsomely if the chalk runs into trouble.

show1Se Thar BarrML 5/1

Se Thar Barr opens at 5/1 with a 71.19 TrackWiz rating and a 54 avg speed figure competitive for this mile allowance. Trainer Susan S. Cooney sends him out with Jorge Ruiz, and while a 7% career win rate is modest, the speed figures and rating suggest he's been competitive without getting the win. He's a reliable show anchor in exotics, and at 5/1 he brings some overlay potential if the tote board undervalues him.

Race 6

6:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling 12-horse claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs that figures to see plenty of early speed, setting up a race where a horse with top speed figures and tactical flexibility has a big edge.

win5Gimme Two ShotsML 4/1

Gimme Two Shots tops our ratings at 82.13 and posts one of the best avg speed figures in this field at 56, tied with Archimedes and Baltic. Trainer Emanuel J. Geralis actually has three horses in this field (Gimme Two Shots, One True Dude, and Stone Cold Jones), and when a barn enters multiple runners, the one with the highest rating often signals where the real confidence lies. Jose E. Vargas takes the mount, and at 4/1 this is a race where our top-rated horse is also offering fair morning-line value.

place10One True DudeML 9/2

One True Dude is the other Geralis runner we're highest on, rated 74.85 and carrying a 28% career win rate — a number that commands respect at any level. Wesley Ho rides him at 9/2, and the 54 avg speed keeps him right in the thick of things at this sprint distance. With the barn having multiple horses in the race, One True Dude is a legitimate place alternative who could easily find his way to the board.

show3BalticML 9/2

Baltic rates third overall at 71.35 with a 56 avg speed figure — matching the top horses in raw pace — and Vincent Cheminaud is a quality rider for trainer Cathal A. Lynch. The 9/2 morning line puts Baltic in a competitive price range, and his 20% career win rate says he's not a stranger to hitting the board. In a wide field like this, Baltic's speed and rating make him a sensible show bet and a logical trifecta inclusion.

Race 7

7:13 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A short seven-horse maiden special weight at 1 1/16 miles that looks like a two-horse show on paper — but the intrigue is whether the heavy public favorite or our top-rated selection can hold off a sneaky mid-priced threat.

win3TejanitaML 8/5

Tejanita dominates this field with a 89.12 TrackWiz rating and goes off at 8/5 on the morning line — trainer Claude R. McGaughey III is a Hall of Famer with a well-earned reputation for producing ready-to-run maidens. Vincent Cheminaud gets the mount, adding further class to the connections. The 53 avg speed is solid for this distance, and in a seven-horse field this short, Tejanita's rating margin over the rest of the field is significant enough that she's our confident top selection.

place6Spresso MarML 8/1

Spresso Mar is the most interesting overlay in this race at 8/1 with a 62.53 TrackWiz rating — well ahead of Year End Bonus who the public has installed as the co-chalk at 6/5. Kevin Gomez rides for trainer Madison F. Meyers, and a 53 avg speed is competitive for the 1 1/16-mile distance. If Tejanita runs into any trouble or gets outrun early, Spresso Mar has the profile to snag the place spot and pay a very nice price.

show2Year End BonusML 6/5

Year End Bonus is trained by Chad C. Brown, which is enough reason alone to keep him in your exotics — Brown's barn rarely sends out a runner without genuine intent. The 6/5 morning line suggests the public sees Brown's stamp as a major plus, and at 59.67 our model has him third. He's thin in the win pool, but as a show anchor behind Tejanita in trifectas, Year End Bonus makes sense given the trainer edge.

Race 8

7:46 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A seven-horse allowance at 1 1/16 miles where our top-rated horse and the morning-line favorite are one and the same — but the race gets interesting behind him with two legitimate threats at overlaid prices.

win6BrunoML 2/1

Bruno leads everyone in this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and an avg speed of 56 — the highest in the race by a clear margin. He opens as the 2/1 favorite for trainer Daniel G. Eubanks with Jevian Toledo in the irons, and a 33% career win rate confirms this horse knows how to finish first. When our model's top-rated horse is also the morning-line favorite with the best speed figure and a strong career record, that's about as confident a selection as we'll make all day.

place3Forrest CityML 7/2

Forrest City rates 75.77 — second in the field — and opens at 7/2 with Tais Lyapustina aboard for trainer Lacey Gaudet. A 16% career win rate is respectable for an allowance runner, and the 54 avg speed should keep this horse close enough to Bruno to make the place. The 7/2 price is fair value for what figures to be a clear second-best effort in this race.

show5ObjectionML 3/1

Objection is our show pick at 3/1 with a 65.91 rating and a 33% career win rate — tied with Bruno for the best win percentage in the field, which is a number that stands out. Trainer Brittany T. Russell teams with Mychel J. Sanchez, and the 53 avg speed keeps Objection in the mix over this route. The win rate alone suggests he's run well enough to land on the board, and at 3/1 he's a comfortable show and exotics play.

Race 9

8:18 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The closing race at Laurel is a starter optional claimer at 5½ furlongs that features a dominant top selection and two underrated contenders that could reward players looking to maximize exotic payouts.

win3Horsing AroundML EVN

Horsing Around is the highest-rated horse on the entire Laurel card at 90.0 and posts a 56 avg speed figure while opening at even money — trainer Brittany T. Russell has this horse and Roadrunner the Cat in the same race, and there's little doubt where the stable confidence sits. Mychel J. Sanchez takes the mount, and a 25% career win rate for a horse this dominant in the ratings is a combination that demands respect. She's the play in the win pool, and it's not particularly close.

place6Chilly GirlML 8/1

Chilly Girl offers genuine overlay value at 8/1 with a 62.42 TrackWiz rating and a 55 avg speed — that speed figure matches the field's best runners and suggests she can keep pace in this sprint. Trainer Michael M. Moore sends her out with Andy Hernandez, and a 16% career win rate says she's hit the board before. At those odds, Chilly Girl is exactly the type of horse we want underneath Horsing Around in the exacta — enough rating to compete, enough price to make it worthwhile.

show4Roadrunner the CatML 8/1

Roadrunner the Cat is the other Russell trainee in this race, rated 61.24 with an impressive 22% career win rate and a 56 avg speed that ties him with the top horses in the field. Kevin Gomez rides, and when a trainer has two horses in the same race, the second horse often benefits from pacemaking or trip manipulation that can land him on the board. At 8/1 he's well-priced for a show position and a smart trifecta inclusion behind Horsing Around.

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Bottom line for today at Laurel: it's a workmanlike card with real betting opportunities across the board. Notion in Motion, Fayes Heart, and Meshach anchor the free picks in Races 1–3, while the premium card builds toward Horsing Around in Race 9 as the day's headline play. If you want the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and race-by-race breakdowns for all 9 — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck at the windows.

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