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Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — October 16, 2026

October 16, 20268 racesAll Laurel Park picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Laurel Park — 73°F, partly cloudy, and just the right conditions for a full 8-race card that mixes dirt sprints, route tests, and a healthy dose of turf action. The grass courses figure to be running well on a dry, comfortable afternoon, so pay close attention to those turf spots.

Today's card leans heavily toward maiden and lower-level events in the early going, but the card heats up fast. We've got a couple of allowance-level races featuring horses with legitimate ratings, and one contender — Fuerteventura in Race 7 — who shows up as our top-rated pick of the entire day in an Allowance Optional Claiming route on the turf. Don't skip past that one.

Of the 8 races, TrackWiz has full free analysis on the first three. The remaining five — including some of the most interesting betting opportunities on the card — are available to subscribers. Let's break it all down.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer going a mile on the dirt, with no horse in the field carrying a career win — making TrackWiz ratings and average speed figures the clearest path through the fog.

win6Ready SetML 2/1

Ready Set tops our TrackWiz ratings at 58.33 and draws the morning line favorite's role at 2/1 for a reason. Trainer Brittany T. Russell and jockey Sheldon Russell form a powerful barn-and-saddle connection that has been a reliable angle at this meet. The 52 average speed figure is right in the mix with the field, and going a full mile gives a horse with stamina to close ground late — a profile that suits the Russell operation's typical runners.

place8Imperial CharterML 4/1

Imperial Charter (8) carries a 57.27 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 53, ticking slightly ahead of Ready Set on raw speed. Trainer Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon has the horse pointed here at 4/1, which offers genuine value in the exacta if Ready Set handles the top spot. A horse posting a 53 figure in maiden claiming company at a mile has enough class to land a piece.

show10Awesome LawML 4/1

Awesome Law at 4/1 on the morning line brings a 55 TrackWiz rating and a matching 53 average speed — solid enough to threaten the superfecta spots in a field this deep. Trainer Brittany T. Russell saddles a second horse in the race, which speaks to the barn's confidence in this spot. At those odds with a legitimate figure, Awesome Law belongs in your trifecta coverage.

Race 2

4:32 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A short-field maiden special weight sprint that has a clear top two on paper, but the morning line chalk and the second choice are separated by only a couple of points — expect a genuine pace battle to sort it out.

win6FrustratedML EVN

Frustrated opens at even money, and our TrackWiz rating of 60 — the top mark in this field — justifies the favoritism. The Brittany T. Russell–Sheldon Russell combo firing again in a maiden sprint is a pattern worth following, and while the 0 average speed figure means this is an unknown quantity on paper, the high rating suggests strong internal metrics that give us confidence. In a six-horse field, top-rated horses at this level close quickly.

place1Card SharkML 2/1

Card Shark earns a 58.33 TrackWiz rating alongside an average speed figure of 55 — the best recorded figure in the field — and H. Graham Motion is never a trainer to dismiss in maiden special weight events. At 2/1 on the morning line, the place price may be thin, but Card Shark's 55 figure gives a concrete reason to expect a meaningful run in the stretch.

show2Plentyof RogueML 5/1

Plentyof Rogue at 5/1 grades out at 53.33 on our ratings for trainer Justin J. Nixon, who also runs Mythical Magic in this field — barn confidence matters when a trainer doubles up. The lack of a recorded average speed figure is a red flag for pace projection, but in a six-horse field, a 53-plus-rated horse can find trouble-free trips and land third without needing a perfect run.

Race 3

5:05 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

This turf allowance over five and a half furlongs is headlined by a dominant top selection, but the wide field creates real exacta and trifecta value underneath — don't overlook the 50% career winner lurking at 4/1.

win9Big EarnML 2/1

Big Earn is the standout of the entire afternoon card, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that towers over this field. An average speed figure of 57 — tied for tops in the race — backs up the number with tangible evidence, and trainer Michael J. Trombetta sends this horse out at 2/1 with clear intentions. At 18% career wins, Big Earn has demonstrated the ability to graduate, and on this surface and distance combination, the TrackWiz model has high conviction.

place10The Magic OfmoviesML 5/1

The Magic Ofmovies checks in second in our ratings at 72.92, posting a 25% career win rate and an average speed of 56 — just a tick below Big Earn. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta runs a second horse in the field, which underscores how well this barn knows this surface and distance. At 5/1, The Magic Ofmovies is the most logical exacta partner with the top pick and offers real value for the exotic player.

show1Blessed CandyML 8/1

Blessed Candy sits third in our ratings at 71.24 and carries a 23% career win rate — a horse that knows how to hit the board. A 55 average speed figure is competitive for this field, and trainer Antonio Machado points this one here at 8/1, representing genuine overlay territory in a field where the top two are well-established. Blessed Candy belongs in any trifecta combination.

The free portion of today's card covers Races 1 through 3, and there's genuine interest in all three. Ready Set opens things up in a mile maiden claimer on the dirt — a distance that will sort out the field in a hurry and could favor closers if an early pace battle develops. In Race 2, Frustrated comes in as the morning-line favorite in a 6-furlong maiden special weight, and our analysis backs that confidence. Then Race 3 shifts to the turf for a 5½-furlong allowance, and Big Earn earns the highest TrackWiz rating of the free races at 88.54 — a number that signals a legitimate edge over the field on what should be a good turf day.

Across the three free picks, the common thread is straightforward: conditions are cooperative, and we like horses that can control or press the pace early, especially on the turf where rail position and early positioning often prove decisive in shorter routes. Check each individual race card for the full free breakdown.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:38 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A sprawling 13-horse maiden special weight field on the turf with no clear standout — ratings are clustered tightly and the winner could come from almost anywhere, making this a prime race for exotic play.

win11After AllML 12/1

After All (11) earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 54.67 and shows an average speed figure of 54, which grades well in a field where several horses are working with no recorded figures at all. Trainer W. Thomas McMahon sends this one out at 12/1 — potential morning-line value if the horse performs to its metrics. In a field this big with ratings this compressed, the top-rated horse deserves the win slot in your exotics.

place8Playin for GinML 5/1

Playin for Gin (8) rates second in the field at 53.33 for the Michael J. Trombetta barn, which has already shown strong form on the turf today. No average speed figure is recorded, so there's inherent uncertainty, but the 5/1 price and top-tier trainer make this a logical place ticket. Trombetta's horses tend to be well-prepared at first asking on the grass.

show1BetterpartofvalourML 6/1

Betterpartofvalour (1) shares a 51.67 TrackWiz rating with three other horses in the field but gets the nod in the show slot thanks to trainer Michael J. Trombetta — his third runner of the afternoon on turf and a clear sign of barn confidence. The 54 average speed figure is legitimate, and drawing post one in a turf sprint can be an asset if the horse breaks cleanly. At 6/1, there's show-price value here.

Race 5

6:09 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

A tight seven-horse claiming field at seven furlongs on the dirt where one horse holds a significant ratings edge, but a 22% career winner lurking at 3/1 could make this a real pace scenario down the lane.

win3VenetoML 2/1

Veneto (3) posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — by far the highest mark in the field — and while his 12% career win rate appears modest, the rating gap over the field suggests he's been running against tougher company. Trainer Joseph M. Murphy sends him out at 2/1, and Leandro M. Briceno gets the call in the irons. With an average speed of 53 in a competitive dirt sprint, this is as close to a clear top selection as the claiming ranks produce.

place4Poor PeanutML 3/1

Poor Peanut (4) is a legitimate threat to win outright, carrying a 22% career win rate — the second-highest in the field — and a 65.61 TrackWiz rating at 3/1. That win percentage tells you this horse has been in the winner's circle before at this level, and trainer Carlos A. Mancilla is pointing him here with purpose. A 54 average speed figure matches Veneto on raw speed, making the exacta combination between these two the most logical wager on the race.

show1In Honor of JeffML 6/1

In Honor of Jeff (1) rates third in the field at 59.53 with a 15% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure — right in the mix on pace. Trainer Alberto Delgado places this horse at 6/1, which represents solid overlay value for a horse grading competitively on every key metric. If Veneto and Poor Peanut get into a speed duel, In Honor of Jeff could be the horse that comes through the middle for third.

Race 6

6:41 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

On the turf for 5.5 furlongs, this maiden claimer has a dramatic ratings gap at the top — one horse separates herself significantly from the pack, setting up a race where the real action is for the place and show spots.

win10Penelope's GiftML 4/1

Penelope's Gift (10) is the most lopsided selection of the day, posting an 85.62 TrackWiz rating in a field where the next-closest horse checks in at 63.03. The 56 average speed figure is the best in the race, and trainer Timothy L. Keefe has her pointed at 4/1 on the morning line — strong value for a horse this dominant on ratings. Taylor Kingsley gets the mount, and the turf surface at this sprint distance plays directly to what the figures suggest.

place3Sota SummersML 3/1

Sota Summers (3) is the clear second choice in both morning line (3/1) and TrackWiz ratings (63.03), making her the most logical partner underneath Penelope's Gift. Trainer Brittany T. Russell and jockey Sheldon Russell reunite — a combination that has been among the most effective at Laurel today. An average speed figure of 54 grounds the rating in real performance data.

show7Divine MousseML 2/1

Divine Mousse (7) opens at 2/1 as the morning line second choice but grades third in our ratings at 58.33 — suggesting the public may be slightly overrating her relative to the TrackWiz model. Still, a 55 average speed figure is legitimate, trainer Madison F. Meyers places her prominently, and at even-money or below she'll likely be bet down further. She belongs in your trifecta as a realistic third-place finisher if Sota Summers runs second.

Race 7

7:14 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

An allowance optional claimer on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth, and the Jamie Ness entry (1/1A) dominates the ratings — but Edgy's jaw-dropping 40% career win rate and Dynacito's 28% make this a race with genuine contention in the exotic pools.

win1FuerteventuraML EVN

Fuerteventura (1) earns a 90 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse on the card today — and goes as part of the Ness entry at even money alongside Write Off Jerry. A 20% career win rate is solid, and trainer Jamie Ness clearly believes in this horse enough to enter both at the same price. The turf at a mile and a sixteenth is a stamina test, and Fuerteventura's top-of-the-field rating gives us the most confidence we've had all day.

place9DynacitoML 4/1

Dynacito (9) carries an 84.60 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win rate — a horse that wins at a high clip and grades second in this field on our model. Brittany T. Russell saddles the horse with Sheldon Russell up, a combo that has been clicking all afternoon. At 4/1, Dynacito offers real exacta value against the entry, and the 54 average speed figure shows he belongs at this level on the turf.

show5EdgyML 2/1

Edgy (5) might be the most interesting horse in the race — a 40% career win rate is extraordinary for any horse at any level, and the 82.92 TrackWiz rating confirms this is a legitimate contender. Trainer Brittany T. Russell runs both Edgy and Dynacito, doubling down in this spot. At 2/1, the morning line suggests the public will respect Edgy, but if Fuerteventura handles the top slot, Edgy's show price may be your best closing value.

Race 8

7:46 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A six-horse maiden claimer at a mile on the dirt closing out the card — the morning line favorite is far from our top selection, setting up an intriguing value situation with a potential double-digit longshot worth a serious look.

win1Speed FocusedML 15/1

Speed Focused (1) opens at 15/1 on the morning line but leads the field with a 62.08 TrackWiz rating — a notable disconnect between public expectation and our model. Trainer Megan Salzman places this horse at a full mile, and while the 50 average speed figure is the lowest among horses with recorded figures, the rating suggests overall profile metrics that the raw speed number undersells. If Speed Focused fires at anything close to potential, the morning-line odds represent outstanding value.

place4Jack RabbitnessML EVN

Jack Rabbitness (4) is the morning line choice at even money, grading out at a 60 TrackWiz rating for trainer Jamie Ness — a barn that has shown up multiple times today with live horses. The 54 average speed figure is the best of any horse in this field with a recorded number. The gap between Jack Rabbitness and our top pick is narrow enough that an exacta combining the two in both directions is a smart play.

show3His Friesan FireML 4/1

His Friesan Fire (3) grades third in the field at 55 on the TrackWiz ratings with a 53 average speed figure — matching War Report on the figure but rating higher overall. Trainer John E. Salzman Jr. puts him out at 4/1, which is a fair price in a six-horse field. For the trifecta, His Friesan Fire is a dependable fill at a number that won't crush your return.

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Today at Laurel Park shapes up as a solid Friday card with real opportunities on both ends of the price spectrum. Big Earn is our top free-race play on the turf, Fuerteventura is the marquee pick of the day for premium members, and Penelope's Gift is the value angle we don't want to leave off the ticket. Good luck out there — and as always, the full card breakdown is waiting for you at TrackWiz Premium.

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