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Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — October 15, 2026

October 15, 20269 racesAll Laurel Park picks

It's a crisp, comfortable Thursday at Laurel Park — 63°F under partly cloudy skies, and conditions look near-ideal for both the dirt and turf surfaces. With nine races on the card spread across three surfaces, there's plenty to dig into whether you're a casual bettor or a multi-race sequence hunter.

The turf gets heavy play today, appearing in five of the nine races. That's worth noting early because turf form can be tricky — pace scenarios shift, ground-saving trips matter more, and small edges compound over a card like this. The good news: our ratings identified some sharp angles from top to bottom.

Headlining the afternoon is Shaft's Bullet in Race 8, who carries our highest TrackWiz rating of the day at 88.83 and goes off at a juicy 9/5 morning line in a Rating Optional Claiming sprint on dirt. But there's legitimate intrigue in earlier races too, including a pair of longshot plays our models flagged that deserve a close look.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open turf sprint with a clear class standout at the top, but enough live price horses in the middle of the pack to keep exotics interesting.

win4ContraML 3/1

Contra tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and shows the highest average speed figure in the field at 57 — a tick better than anyone else in this sprint. Horacio Karamanos gets the call, and a 3/1 morning line on the top-rated horse represents fair value in a field this competitive. Trainer Sarah Nagle puts this one in a turf claiming sprint that looks right in Contra's wheelhouse, and the combination of elite rating and speed edge makes this our strongest opinion on the opener.

place1GripenML 2/1

Gripen opens as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for a reason — a 30% career win rate is among the best in this field and the TrackWiz rating of 80.14 slots in solidly behind only Contra. Taylor Kingsley has a live mount from post 1, which can be a ground-saving advantage on the turf. If Contra hits any trouble, Gripen is the most likely beneficiary.

show5ThisishowwedoitML 6/1

Thisishowwedoit brings a 25% career win rate and a 77.51 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — at a 6/1 morning line that makes this a legitimate value inclusion in exotics. Jomar Torres takes the mount for trainer Mark V. Salvaggio, and this kind of price on a horse with above-average figures makes Thisishowwedoit a natural show play and a key part of any trifecta structure.

Race 2

4:28 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer on the dirt where nobody has ever visited the winner's circle — pace and TrackWiz ratings will do the heavy lifting today.

win5Island BanditML 6/1

Island Bandit stands out in this maiden field with a TrackWiz rating of 74.77 — easily the highest in the race and a full 16 points clear of the second-best figure. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is a genuine value overlay: top rating, a fair price, and Xavier Perez in the irons for trainer John J. Robb. In a race where everyone is winless, the horse with the most impressive underlying numbers is exactly who you want to key.

place7Righteous DipML 2/1

Righteous Dip draws plenty of support as the 2/1 morning-line choice, and a 58.33 TrackWiz rating puts this Sheldon Russell-ridden runner second in our numbers. The Brittany T. Russell barn has a live look here, and as the probable pace-setter or stalker, Righteous Dip should be in a good position turning for home.

show6BudthegreatoneML 5/2

Budthegreatone is 5/2 on the morning line and rates third in our figures at 57.50, making this a logical show inclusion. Charlie Marquez takes the mount for trainer Hugh I. McMahon, and while the average speed data isn't available for this one, the morning-line price suggests the barn is confident. A tight top-three here on the numbers — Budthegreatone fills out the ticket nicely.

Race 3

4:56 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden special weight turf route full of first-time starters and lightly raced prospects — trainer pedigree and TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders from the pretenders.

win2Pretty ViolentML 6/1

Pretty Violent is our top pick here and it's not particularly close — an 82.71 TrackWiz rating leads the field by more than 26 points, a massive edge in a wide-open maiden. Mychel J. Sanchez gets the call for trainer Michael J. Trombetta, who has a strong history developing turf horses at this level. At 6/1 on the morning line, this is exactly the kind of overlaid top-rated runner that TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place6HardscapeML 3/1

Hardscape comes in as the morning-line favorite at 3/1, trained by Keri Brion, who knows how to spot a turf maiden spot. The 56.67 rating and an average speed figure of 54 — tied for the best in the field along with a couple of others — give this Vincent Cheminaud mount a solid base to work from. A top-flight connections angle combined with the morning-line support makes Hardscape a strong place contender.

show3Cat's MeowML 4/1

Cat's Meow shares that 54 average speed figure and rates third in our numbers at 55.00, making this an intriguing show play for trainer H. Graham Motion — one of the premier turf conditioners on the East Coast. Jeiron Barbosa handles the riding duties, and in a maiden turf route where course experience matters, Motion's horses often improve sharply in these spots. A logical third piece to any exacta or trifecta here.

The first three races are unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and they span both surfaces — a turf claiming sprint to open, a dirt maiden claimer at a mile and a sixteenth, and a maiden special weight on turf to close out the freebie stretch. Contra leads us off at 3/1 morning line in Race 1, carrying an 87.08 rating that suggests she's the class of that field. Then Island Bandit offers genuine value at 6/1 in Race 2 — maiden claimers at a route distance on dirt tend to reward horses with stamina pedigrees, and our analysis likes what we see here. Pretty Violent rounds out the free card in Race 3, another 6/1 shot with an 82.71 rating in a turf maiden special weight, the kind of race where a lightly-raced horse with upside can pop at a price.

One thread connecting these three: today's partly cloudy conditions and moderate temperatures should keep the turf firm and consistent throughout the afternoon, which benefits front-runners and horses that don't need a soft surface to fire their best. Keep that in mind as you build your tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:26 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't our top horse here — Beach Cowboy owns the best number in this field despite drawing outside, setting up a potential overlay situation in a short dirt sprint.

win7Beach CowboyML 5/2

Beach Cowboy leads all horses in this field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate. Jeiron Barbosa takes the mount for trainer A. Ferris Allen III, and this combo has a live ticket in a 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprint where raw speed and class can dominate quickly. The 5/2 morning line is fair but not short — this is our top selection and the anchor of any exotic plays in Race 4.

place4BacknthewoodsML 3/1

Backnthewoods rates second in our numbers at 73.44 and posts a 13% career win rate while showing the best average speed figure in the field at 55. Jorge F. Hernandez rides for trainer Joseph M. Murphy, and the 3/1 morning line feels like fair value on a horse that could easily inherit a big trip if Beach Cowboy gets pressured. A strong place play.

show2Sheriff RonnieML 9/5

Sheriff Ronnie is the 9/5 morning-line chalk but checks in third on our TrackWiz ratings at 64.49 — a gap worth noting. That said, a 25% career win rate is the best in the field, and Julio A. Hernandez is a sharp choice for trainer Kieron Magee. Even if Sheriff Ronnie doesn't get to the lead, that win rate suggests this horse finds a way to be competitive at the wire.

Race 5

5:58 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A sprawling 12-horse starter optional claiming field on the turf where the top of our ratings is loaded and pace could get complicated — look for a closer to capitalize.

win2Sin BoldlyML 7/2

Sin Boldly heads our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 in a tough field and shows a 56 average speed figure that ties for the best on the card. Jeiron Barbosa takes the mount for trainer Suzanne Stettinius, who also saddles Wetherby — that dual entry could set up a pace scenario that benefits the faster of the two. At 7/2, Sin Boldly is a reasonable price on the top-rated horse in a 12-horse field.

place11Getting CloserML 8/1

Getting Closer opens at 8/1 despite a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — the second-best figure in the race — and that's where the value angle lives. Angel Cruz rides for Kenneth M. Cox, and a 10% career win rate in a tough optional claiming spot suggests this is a horse that consistently hits the board without always closing out. That profile screams place horse and is exactly why Getting Closer belongs in your exotics.

show6WetherbyML 4/1

Wetherby posts a 78.78 TrackWiz rating and a sparkling 25% career win rate — among the best in this field — at 4/1 on the morning line. Mychel J. Sanchez takes over for trainer Suzanne Stettinius, and with stablemate Sin Boldly also running, the barn has two bullets. Wetherby's numbers alone justify a show position, and the shared trainer angle could make for some interesting pace dynamics.

Race 6

6:29 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

An 11-horse maiden special weight on the dirt where the morning-line favorites cluster in a tight ratings band — our top pick is an 8/1 shot who has the best number in the field.

win8Jesse MarieML 8/1

Jesse Marie leads all horses in Race 6 with a 65.02 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 55 — best in the field. Kevin Gomez gets the mount for trainer Horace W. Armstrong, and the 8/1 morning line on the race's top-rated horse is the value play of the race. In a maiden field this wide open, getting the best number at a double-digit morning line is exactly the angle TrackWiz analysis targets.

place1Souper TaylorML 7/2

Souper Taylor opens as the morning-line co-favorite at 7/2 and rates second in our numbers at 55.83 for trainer Michael J. Trombetta, one of the sharper maiden conditioners in the Mid-Atlantic. Vincent Cheminaud rides, and while the average speed figure of 53 is workmanlike, the strong connections and solid rating make this a logical place contender alongside Jesse Marie.

show10She's the MoamentML 9/2

She's the Moament comes in at 9/2 on the morning line and posts a 54.17 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field — with an average speed figure of 54. Jeiron Barbosa takes the mount for Richard P. Sillaman, and in a maiden field where no horse has ever won, consistency of effort matters as much as peak performance. A natural third piece for trifecta players.

Race 7

7:01 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A rating optional claimer on the turf mile where the top number belongs to an overlay and the favorite doesn't lead our ratings — this one has value written all over it for sharp players.

win11Dandy VandyML 7/2

Dandy Vandy leads all TrackWiz ratings in Race 7 at 86.35 with an average speed figure of 56 — the best in the field by a clear margin. Jaime Rodriguez takes the mount for trainer Jamie Ness, who consistently places horses well in optional claiming spots at this level. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is a top-rated horse at a playable price, and the turf mile sets up perfectly for a come-from-behind type.

place2Bay StreetML 6/1

Bay Street rates second on our figures at 72.53 and shows a 17% career win rate at 6/1 on the morning line — a legitimate price play in the exotic. Jorge Ruiz rides for trainer Damon R. Dilodovico, and an average speed figure of 55 puts Bay Street right in the competitive range at this distance. If the pace gets hot up front, Bay Street has the running style to close into the placing spots.

show6Dynamic ActressML 4/1

Dynamic Actress carries the field's best career win rate at 38% — that's a number that demands attention in any field — with a 67.95 TrackWiz rating and a 4/1 morning line. Angel Cruz takes the call for Nesvil Hernan Bailon, and a horse that wins more than a third of its races doesn't go down easy. Dynamic Actress is a logical show play and a key horse to use underneath in trifectas.

Race 8

7:33 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Shaft's Bullet enters this dirt mile as both the morning-line favorite and the TrackWiz ratings leader — the question is whether the rest of the field has enough to push the pace before the top horse puts it away.

win5Shaft's BulletML 9/5

Shaft's Bullet leads the field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a 30% career win rate — both tops in this race — while Leandro M. Briceno gets the call for trainer Gary Capuano. Opening at 9/5 on the morning line, this is the rare case where the favorite and the top-rated horse are one and the same, and that alignment inspires confidence. A 30% win rate is elite at this level, and Shaft's Bullet looks like the horse to beat.

place7Assume NothingML 9/2

Assume Nothing rates second on our numbers at 80.75 and posts a 23% career win rate at 9/2 on the morning line — a solid price on a horse who clearly can win. Jaime Rodriguez takes the mount for trainer Jamie Ness, who also sends out Dandy Vandy in Race 7, making this a solid stable day. If Shaft's Bullet runs into any trouble, Assume Nothing has the figures to capitalize.

show1Forrest CityML 3/1

Forrest City checks in third on our TrackWiz ratings at 77.61 and brings a 16% career win rate for trainer Lacey Gaudet, who also saddles Otago (the 1A entry). Tais Lyapustina rides, and with the 3/1 morning-line price, Forrest City offers a logical show play for a horse that rates well and figures to be in contention deep into the stretch of a one-mile dirt race.

Race 9

8:05 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden claimer on the turf sprint to close the card — the morning-line favorite doesn't lead our ratings, and a pair of longer-priced horses sit atop the TrackWiz numbers.

win9UnrelentingcourageML 10/1

Unrelentingcourage leads our TrackWiz ratings in the finale at 71.42 with an average speed figure of 54 — solid for this level — and opens at 10/1 on the morning line. Taylor Kingsley gets the mount for trainer Roland P. Clement III, and when you have the top-rated horse at double-digit odds in a maiden, that's the value play you circle. In a field where no one has won before, the horse with the best underlying numbers at the best price is exactly where the TrackWiz analysis points.

place3Williston WizardML 6/1

Williston Wizard rates just behind the top pick at 70.44 and comes in at a fair 6/1 for trainer Edward T. Allard with Mychel J. Sanchez in the irons. An average speed figure of 52 is honest work for a maiden turf sprint, and the trainer-jockey combination here is sharp. Williston Wizard and Unrelentingcourage look like the class of this field and should both be on your ticket.

show5ReplicateML 9/5

Replicate opens as the morning-line favorite at 9/5 despite ranking only third in our TrackWiz figures at 58.67 — the kind of gap that often signals a false chalk situation. That said, a 9/5 morning line gets horses bet down for a reason, and Jeiron Barbosa riding for trainer Richard P. Sillaman is a respected combo. Replicate's pace-pressing profile could keep this one in the picture for a show spot even if the top two run away from the field.

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Bottom line for today: Shaft's Bullet is the marquee play, Contra headlins the free card, and there's legitimate longshot upside scattered across this nine-race Laurel card. The turf-heavy card on a mild October afternoon sets up well for disciplined multi-race wagering. Unlock the full analysis — pace projections, exotic breakdowns, and every angle our models caught — with a TrackWiz subscription at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there today.

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