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Laurel Park Picks & Predictions — October 11, 2026

October 11, 20269 racesAll Laurel Park picks

It's a soggy Sunday at Laurel Park, with rain falling and temperatures sitting around 65°F. Nine races are on the board, and the wet weather is going to be a factor all afternoon — particularly for the turf events, where late scratches and surface switches are always a possibility. Keep an eye on the official track condition reports before you finalize anything.

The card is a nice mix of sprint and route action, split across dirt and turf, with everything from maiden claimers to optional claiming spots that tend to attract sharper horses dropping in for an easy score. There's plenty to dig into whether you're just looking for a winner in the opener or trying to piece together a Pick 4 ticket deeper in the card.

Three races are fully free to TrackWiz members today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — so even if you're not subscribed yet, you've got a solid starting point. For the full nine-race breakdown, our premium analysis has you covered.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The top of the TrackWiz ratings card is clear here — Contra holds a meaningful edge over the field — but this 11-horse turf sprint has enough mid-pack talent to keep exotics honest.

win4ContraML 3/1

Contra tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08, a full seven points clear of nearest rival Gripen, and posts the field's best average speed figure at 57. Jockey Horacio Karamanos is a savvy pilot on the Maryland circuit, and trainer Sarah Nagle has a horse ready to fire at 3/1 on the morning line — fair value for the class of this field. At 5.5 furlongs on turf, pace will be honest and Contra should have enough to hold off closers down the lane.

place1GripenML 2/1

Gripen is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for good reason, packing a 30% career win rate that stands out in a competitive field and a solid TrackWiz rating of 80.14. Taylor Kingsley sticks with the mount, which is always a positive sign, and the horse figures to be forwardly placed throughout this short sprint — giving him multiple opportunities to hit the board even if Contra has his number late.

show5ThisishowwedoitML 6/1

Thisishowwedoit offers legitimate exotic appeal at 6/1 on the morning line, rating 77.51 with a 25% career win rate that suggests a horse who regularly converts. Trainer Mark V. Salvaggio sends Jomar Torres up, and in a field where the pace could get messy with 11 runners, a horse with proven closing ability at this rating level is a smart show inclusion.

Race 2

4:28 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A maiden claiming route on dirt where nobody has broken their maiden yet — but Island Bandit carries a TrackWiz rating that blows the field away, making this look like a potential one-horse show at overlay odds.

win5Island BanditML 6/1

Island Bandit's TrackWiz rating of 74.77 towers over this maiden claiming field — the next-best horse, Righteous Dip, rates 58.33, a gap of more than 16 points. Trainer John J. Robb puts Xavier Perez in the irons, and at 6/1 on the morning line this is a genuine overlay given the ratings dominance. The 1 1/16-mile dirt route should suit a horse with that kind of class edge, giving Island Bandit time to find the right position and wear down the field.

place7Righteous DipML 2/1

Righteous Dip is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and rates second in the field at 58.33, which makes the place slot a natural fit. Sheldon Russell is one of the sharper riders in this colony, and trainer Brittany T. Russell — who also runs Igaming here — clearly has the stable in good form. Even if Island Bandit is the class horse, Righteous Dip figures to fight for second and deliver place money.

show6BudthegreatoneML 5/2

Budthegreatone opens at 5/2 and carries a rating of 57.50, essentially neck-and-neck with Righteous Dip in the TrackWiz model. Trainer Hugh I. McMahon sends Charlie Marquez aboard, and at a short price the show spot makes sense as a hedge — if Island Bandit and Righteous Dip are the top two, this one looks like the likeliest third.

Race 3

4:56 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

An MSW turf route full of lightly raced maidens, but Pretty Violent stands apart on TrackWiz ratings and offers real value at 6/1 on a morning line that underestimates the gap in quality.

win2Pretty ViolentML 6/1

Pretty Violent's TrackWiz rating of 82.71 is the highest in this field by a significant margin — Hardscape, the morning-line favorite at 3/1, rates 56.67, which is a 26-point gap that screams overlay on our top pick. Trainer Michael J. Trombetta is a staple of top-level Maryland racing and consistently conditions horses to fire fresh in turf routes. With Mychel J. Sanchez in the irons — one of the most experienced jockeys on the card today — Pretty Violent at 6/1 looks like the best value bet of the first three races.

place6HardscapeML 3/1

Hardscape draws the morning-line favoritism at 3/1 and rates 56.67, posting a solid average speed figure of 54 that's tied for second-best in the field. Trainer Keri Brion is sharp with grass runners, and European import Vincent Cheminaud, who gets the call, has experience with turf routes at the highest levels. If the pace shapes up honestly, Hardscape should be close enough turning for home to land a piece.

show3Cat's MeowML 4/1

Cat's Meow rates 55.00 and shares nearly identical raw numbers with Hardscape, making her a logical show target in a wide-open supporting cast. Trainer H. Graham Motion is one of the premier turf horsemen in the mid-Atlantic — his runners at this distance and surface are always worth including in trifectas. At 4/1, Cat's Meow won't pay a fortune, but she offers the confidence of a quality barn in the right spot.

Our free coverage kicks off right at the top of the card. In Race 1, Contra (morning line 3/1) earns an 87.08 TrackWiz rating in the 5½-furlong turf claiming sprint — strong enough to command attention, though the wet conditions make the turf situation worth monitoring. Race 2 shifts to dirt for a 1 1/16-mile maiden claimer, where Island Bandit surfaces as a 6/1 morning line overlay worth a close look — exactly the kind of horse who can offer real value when the crowd underestimates a longer route on the off-track. Then Race 3 takes us back to the turf (conditions permitting) for a maiden special weight mile and a sixteenth, where Pretty Violent opens at 6/1 but carries an 82.71 rating that suggests the morning line may be selling this one short.

The early thread connecting these free picks: pace scenarios that could favor closers if the wet going slows the fractions, and morning line odds that may not reflect the full picture once TrackWiz ratings are layered in. Contra is the highest-rated of the trio and our most straightforward play of the free races — but Island Bandit's price in Race 2 is the kind of overlay that can make your afternoon.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Beach Cowboy arrives as a clear TrackWiz standout against this claiming field, but Sheriff Ronnie's 25% career win rate and short price make the pace scenario and top-two battle worth watching.

win7Beach CowboyML 5/2

Beach Cowboy tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — the highest mark on today's full card through four races — and does it in a modest claiming field where nothing else rates above 75. Trainer A. Ferris Allen III has Jeiron Barbosa up, and at a fair 5/2 morning line this is the most straightforward win play of the afternoon. A 19% career win rate is solid for a claimer, and the 5.5-furlong sprint distance gives Barbosa room to sit close and pounce.

place4BacknthewoodsML 3/1

Backnthewoods rates 73.44 and posts the best average speed figure in the field at 55, giving him a legitimate argument for second behind the top pick. Trainer Joseph M. Murphy sends Jorge F. Hernandez aboard, and at 3/1 this horse has the numbers to run a competitive race in a field where most runners clock in significantly lower. He's the most natural play-under to Beach Cowboy.

show2Sheriff RonnieML 9/5

Sheriff Ronnie opens at 9/5 as the public's choice and brings a 25% career win rate that's the best of any horse in the field — consistency like that earns respect. Trainer Kieron Magee has Jatniel Ramos in the irons, and while the TrackWiz rating of 59.33 slots him third, the show position here is really about acknowledging that a horse who wins a quarter of his starts rarely misses the board entirely.

Race 5

5:53 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

This 12-horse starter optional claiming sprint on turf is a deep field with a cluster of closely rated horses between 74 and 87, setting up a genuine pace battle and multiple exotic combinations worth constructing.

win2Sin BoldlyML 7/2

Sin Boldly rates 86.35 — the top mark in the field — and goes with Jeiron Barbosa, who's already had traffic on today's card and is riding with confidence. Trainer Suzanne Stettinius also sends out stablemate Wetherby, so this is a yard that's clearly live in the race. At 7/2 on the morning line, Sin Boldly is fairly priced for the class of the field, and the 5.5-furlong turf sprint is a distance and surface that rewards horses with a strong rating base going into the race.

place6WetherbyML 4/1

Wetherby slots in at 78.78 on the TrackWiz model and brings an impressive 25% career win rate, suggesting this is a horse that regularly fires. Mychel J. Sanchez picks up the mount for trainer Suzanne Stettinius — the same barn as Sin Boldly — and at 4/1 on the morning line, Wetherby is the natural stablemate play. In a two-horse barn entry situation, having both horses rated in the top four of the field makes the win-place combination particularly appealing.

show12It's Nancytime NowML 6/1

It's Nancytime Now rates 77.82 and posts a 20% career win rate with an average speed figure of 55 — tied for the best in the field. Trainer Steve Klesaris gives Jorge Ruiz the call, and at 6/1 this horse is a legitimate value play for the show position in what could be a chaotic 12-horse sprint. In big fields on turf, closers and pace-adaptable runners with strong speed figures tend to sneak into the exotics.

Race 6

6:22 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight mile on dirt where the ratings cluster tightly between 48 and 65, and our top pick Jesse Marie sits at 8/1 on a morning line that appears to undervalue her edge.

win8Jesse MarieML 8/1

Jesse Marie leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 65.02 and pairs that with the best average speed figure in the race at 55 — a number that repeats across several horses here but aligns with a higher overall rating. Trainer Horace W. Armstrong sends Kevin Gomez up for a horse who's clearly had work done to put a maiden score together. At 8/1 on the morning line, this is a genuine value play — the top-rated horse in a maiden special weight shouldn't be this far down the board.

place1Souper TaylorML 7/2

Souper Taylor opens at 7/2 as one of the morning-line choices and rates 55.83 for trainer Michael J. Trombetta, who runs two horses in this race and clearly believes he has live shots. Paco Lopez is one of the most accomplished jockeys in the region, and Trombetta's runners at a mile on dirt are worth noting. Even without a standout rating, the combination of trainer quality and jockey experience makes Souper Taylor a logical place contender.

show10She's the MoamentML 9/2

She's the Moament rates 54.17 and brings an average speed figure of 54 — the second-best in the field behind the top pick. Jeiron Barbosa rides for trainer Richard P. Sillaman, and at 9/2 on the morning line this filly is positioned nicely to hit the board in a race where several horses lack meaningful speed figures entirely. She's a solid show anchor in the exotics.

Race 7

6:52 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Dandy Vandy dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this turf mile optional claimer, but Dynamic Actress's 38% career win rate and a competitive pace setup give the supporting cast something real to offer.

win11Dandy VandyML 7/2

Dandy Vandy rates 86.35 — tied for the highest mark we've seen today — and posts the best average speed figure in the field at 56 while going postward at a very manageable 7/2. Trainer Jamie Ness is a consistent presence at this level, and Jaime Rodriguez is a capable pilot who should be able to position this horse favorably in a one-mile turf route. The combination of elite rating, best speed figure, and a trainer known for having horses fit off their works makes this the most confident pick of the evening card.

place2Bay StreetML 6/1

Bay Street rates 74.67 for trainer Damon R. Dilodovico and brings an average speed figure of 55, sitting comfortably in the second tier of this field. Jorge Ruiz is a reliable rider on this circuit, and at 6/1 on the morning line, Bay Street represents value relative to his place in the ratings — a horse this far down the morning line but this high in the model tends to generate ROI in place and exacta wagering. He's the clear second-best horse by TrackWiz metrics.

show6Dynamic ActressML 4/1

Dynamic Actress stands out for one remarkable stat: a 38% career win rate, the best in this field by a wide margin and a figure that signals a horse who knows how to get to the wire first. Trainer Nesvil Hernan Bailon sends Angel Cruz aboard at 4/1, and despite a TrackWiz rating of 67.95 that slots her third, that win percentage tells you this mare competes hard. Show tickets here are worth the investment.

Race 8

7:19 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Shaft's Bullet arrives as a strong single in this dirt-mile optional claimer, carrying the highest TrackWiz rating on the card today and a 30% career win rate that demands respect at near-even money.

win5Shaft's BulletML 9/5

Shaft's Bullet tops not just this race but the entire day's card with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83, pairing that with a 30% career win rate and a Paco Lopez booking that adds further credibility. Trainer Gary Capuano is one of the most trusted conditioners on the Maryland circuit, and at 9/5 — while not a generous price — this is a horse you can bet with confidence rather than just include in exotics. The one-mile dirt route suits a horse of this caliber, and the numbers say he's simply better than this field.

place7Assume NothingML 9/2

Assume Nothing rates 74.84 and carries a 23% career win rate, making him a consistent performer who figures to be competitive in this optional claimer. Trainer Jamie Ness — who also runs Dandy Vandy in Race 7 — clearly has his horses cranking, and Jaime Rodriguez rides here as well, maintaining that trainer-jockey connection. At 9/2 on the morning line, this is a fair price for the place spot behind the dominant top pick.

show1Forrest CityML 3/1

Forrest City opens at 3/1 and rates 72.72, running for trainer Lacey Gaudet who also saddles coupled entry Otago as the 1A. A 16% career win rate and average speed figure of 54 keep Forrest City in the conversation as a legitimate third-place finisher, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the public agrees. In an optional claiming field where Shaft's Bullet is the standout, having a reliable third option in the exacta and trifecta boxes is straightforward handicapping.

Race 9

7:47 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A maiden claiming turf sprint to close the card, and two horses — Unrelentingcourage and Williston Wizard — rate well above the field while the morning-line favorite Replicate sits third in the TrackWiz model, setting up a fascinating betting opportunity.

win9UnrelentingcourageML 10/1

Unrelentingcourage rates 71.42 — the top number in this maiden claimer — and goes at 10/1 on the morning line, representing a significant overlay against Replicate who opens at 9/5 but rates nearly 13 points lower in the TrackWiz model. Trainer Roland P. Clement III puts Taylor Kingsley up on a horse whose rating suggests she belongs at a higher level than this maiden claiming company. In turf sprints at 5.5 furlongs, well-rated horses at big prices often provide the best ROI on the card — this looks like one of those spots.

place3Williston WizardML 6/1

Williston Wizard rates 70.44 — essentially a dead heat with Unrelentingcourage at the top of the model — and Paco Lopez makes the trip for trainer Edward T. Allard at 6/1. Lopez rarely rides horses without a genuine shot, and pairing an elite circuit jockey with the second-best-rated horse in a maiden claimer at a fair price is a strong place play. If the top two in the model run their ratings, they should fill the exacta.

show5ReplicateML 9/5

Replicate is the morning-line choice at 9/5 and rates 58.67 for trainer Richard P. Sillaman, with Jeiron Barbosa in the irons — a sharp jockey who's been active all card. The rating slots him third in our model, which is exactly the show position, and the public money will keep his odds compressed. He's the safety net in this exotic — likely hitting the board even if our top picks outrun him.

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Rain at Laurel sets up an unpredictable but genuinely fun card. Our top-rated horse on the day is Shaft's Bullet (Race 8, 88.83 rating), our best value play in the free races is Island Bandit at 6/1 in Race 2, and Unrelentingcourage is the longshot angle worth a look in Race 9. Free picks for Races 1–3 are live now — and if you want the full nine-race breakdown with pace projections and exotic strategies, TrackWiz premium has everything you need before the first post.

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