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Kentucky Downs Picks & Predictions — September 6, 2026

September 6, 202612 racesAll Kentucky Downs picks

Labor Day weekend doesn't end quietly at Kentucky Downs. Sunday's 12-race card rolls out under clear skies with temperatures sitting at a warm 87°F — exactly the kind of firm, fast turf day that rewards horses with tactical pace and closing punch alike. Kentucky Downs is one of the most unique venues in American racing, with its rolling, undulating European-style turf course that turns conventional handicapping on its ear. Distance and pace scenarios matter even more here than at your typical oval.

Today's card is loaded top to bottom with turf racing across a wide range of distances — from the 6 1/2-furlong sprints to a marathon 1 5/16-mile stakes that closes out the card. Two stakes races anchor the afternoon, giving serious players plenty of exotic wagering angles to sink into. All 12 races run on the grass, so surface consistency is not a concern today — but turf form, European pedigree, and course-specific experience absolutely are.

TrackWiz has ratings on every race in the book. Races 1 through 3 are free for everyone. Races 4 through 12 — including both stakes — are part of our premium full-card breakdown available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:25 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

An all-maiden turf mile with zero career wins across the board, but the ratings separation is real — three horses cluster at the top while the rest of the field trails off significantly.

win5HemingwayML 6/5

Hemingway draws the eye immediately as the 6/5 morning-line favorite, and TrackWiz analysis backs that market opinion with a field-best rating of 59.67. The Brad H. Cox barn is a powerhouse operation on turf, and having Flavien Prat in the irons — one of the sharpest turf riders in the country — is a meaningful edge in a first-level maiden. With an average speed figure of 54, he's shown he can handle the surface, and the mile distance at Kentucky Downs' unique layout should suit a horse from this barn.

place6Best ScreenplayML 3/1

Best Screenplay checks in at a 56.67 rating and draws Brendan P. Walsh, a trainer who consistently puts up competitive efforts with maidens on turf. Tyler Gaffalione gets the call, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's real value if this one runs to potential in an exotics play. The average speed figure of 52 is a touch below the top trio, but Walsh horses often improve sharply second or third out.

show3Epic RollML 7/2

Epic Roll is the 7/2 third choice and posts the field's top average speed figure at 54 with a solid TrackWiz rating of 55.83 — a tidy combination for a horse trying to hit the board. Trainer Kinnon LaRose and jockey Ben Curtis give this one a professional package, and in a race where the top three ratings are bunched within four points of each other, Epic Roll is absolutely a live exotic piece.

Race 2

6:02 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/2 mi · Turf

A full field allowance going a route of ground at a mile and a half on the grass — stamina is king here, and the pace scenario over this distance often sets up for closers who can find a rhythm.

win1Monterey BayML 9/2

Monterey Bay tops the TrackWiz ratings at 78.37 despite going off at 9/2 on the morning line, which is precisely the kind of overlay our analysis targets. Jose L. Ortiz is one of the best in the business and has a knack for rating horses in long turf routes, which is exactly the skill set this distance demands. Trainer Wesley A. Ward is a proven hand with turf horses, and a 10% career win rate in this spot shouldn't scare you off — Ward horses at this level often fire their best when it counts.

place5PadiddleML 5/2

Padiddle is the 5/2 morning-line second choice and backs that price with a 75.42 rating — second-best in the field. Florent Geroux keeps the mount for trainer Elizabeth Dobles, and the 54 average speed figure is consistent with what you'd want to see for this distance. At 1 1/2 miles, Padiddle's ability to rate off the pace could be the difference when rivals start to tire in deep stretch.

show3No MerlotML 12/1

No Merlot is the value standout here at 12/1 on the morning line with the third-highest rating at 73.96 and a 12% career win rate. Tyler Gaffalione picks this one up for trainer D. Whitworth Beckman, and a double-digit price on a horse this well-rated is worth a look in the exotics. If the pace gets hot early over this marathon distance, a stalker with a solid figure like No Merlot can be dangerous on the board.

Race 3

6:36 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

This full 15-horse starter allowance at 6.5 furlongs on the grass is wide open on paper, but Viking Quest separates himself from the pack with figures that simply don't match the rest of the field.

win13Viking QuestML 5/1

Viking Quest is the standout in this race by a meaningful margin — an 84.17 TrackWiz rating that leads the field by nearly 10 points over the next-best competitor. That 57 average speed figure is tops in the race, and a 22% career win rate tells you this horse knows how to get to the wire first. Trainer Lauren Robson sends this one out at 5/1, which looks like fair value given the numerical advantage, and Micah J. Husbands gets the call in what should be a confident front-runner or near-pace scenario.

place6Queen of QueensML 9/2

Queen of Queens is a fascinating piece of this puzzle — a 40% career win rate is eye-popping for any horse, and Jose L. Ortiz aboard for the Joe Sharp barn is a powerful connection. The 74.59 TrackWiz rating and 54 average speed figure are both solid for a place/show target, and at 9/2 on the morning line, there's genuine value if she fires her typical effort.

show15Twirling ClaireML 8/1

Twirling Claire brings a field-high average speed figure of 58 and a 74.55 TrackWiz rating, making her one of the most intriguing horses in the bottom half of the field statistically. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Gregory D. Foley, and a 14% career win rate with those kinds of speed numbers suggests she's competitive when things click. At 8/1, she's a legitimate show play and a live exotics piece if Viking Quest and Queen of Queens set the table in front.

Our three free picks today span the card's early portion and offer a nice range of situations to work with. In Race 1, Hemingway draws our top rating on this Maiden Special Weight mile on the turf — the morning line has him at 6/5, and while chalk this short deserves scrutiny, our rating of 59.67 supports the case. Race 2 opens up nicely with Monterey Bay at 9/2 in a mile-and-a-half allowance — that's a horse we like at a price in a distance that will test the field's stamina on this rolling course. Viking Quest rounds out the free card in Race 3, a Starter Allowance over 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf, carrying our highest free-race rating at 84.17 and posted at a workable 5/1 on the morning line.

One theme connecting the early races: the warm, dry conditions at Kentucky Downs today should produce firm turf, which historically favors horses that can press or stalk the pace rather than close from far back. Keep that in mind when evaluating pace scenarios in Races 1 through 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:11 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

The allowance optional claimer at 6.5 furlongs on the grass features a clear class standout, but Saturday Flirt's exceptional win percentage and a sneaky live longshot in the back half of the field make this more than a one-horse race.

win3Big TroubleML 3/1

Big Trouble dominates the TrackWiz ratings with an 87.08 score — nearly 15 points clear of the second-best horse — and a field-best average speed figure of 58 reinforces that he belongs at the top of the ticket. Tyler Gaffalione rides for trainer Gregory D. Foley, who also conditions Twirling Claire in Race 3, showing the barn is sharp and active at this meet. A 17% career win rate is respectable, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the price isn't juicy but the edge is real.

place4Saturday FlirtML 4/1

Saturday Flirt's 57% career win rate is the kind of number that stops you cold — that is an elite level of consistency for any horse at any class level. Ben Curtis picks up the mount for the Wesley A. Ward barn, and Ward's two-horse entry in this race (Kehoe Beach is the other) means connections like what they see in this filly. The 72.27 rating and 57 average speed figure make her a clear place contender at 4/1.

show8Spring DancerML 15/1

Spring Dancer is the show value play of the race at 15/1 morning line — a 68.10 TrackWiz rating and 33% career win rate make that price look generous. Trainer Randy L. Morse has two entries in this race, and Spring Dancer's 56 average speed figure matches the top of the field. In a race where the favorites could be dueling each other, a horse this accomplished at hitting the board could easily reward show bettors.

Race 5

7:46 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A massive 16-horse turf maiden field at 6.5 furlongs where the ratings are tightly bunched in the middle tier and no single runner stands head and shoulders above — this one sets up as a genuine wide-open maiden scramble.

win15She Knows BetterML 7/2

She Knows Better tops the TrackWiz ratings at 55.83 and posts an average speed figure of 56, which places her among the faster horses in this field on paper. Luan Machado gets the call for trainer Ben Colebrook at 7/2 on the morning line, and that market position reflects confidence from connections that this filly is ready to fire. In a wide-open maiden, having the top rating and a competitive speed number is often enough of an edge to justify the top spot.

place16Sailor's DreamML 4/1

Sailor's Dream brings Wesley A. Ward's name to the program, and the Hall of Fame trainer's barn rarely shows up without a legitimate chance — especially on turf. The 55.00 rating at 4/1 morning line is right in the mix, and even without a published average speed figure, Ward's maiden turf runners tend to hit the board at a strong rate. Yedsit Hazlewood gets the call, and this filly deserves place consideration in multi-horse exotics.

show7SongadeewinML 9/2

Songadeewin draws attention with a field-best average speed figure of 57 — that's the fastest number in this race — alongside a 54.17 TrackWiz rating and 9/2 morning-line price. Trainer Michelle Lovell sends this one out with Danny Sheehy aboard, and in a chaotic maiden field, raw speed can carry a horse deep into the stretch even if it doesn't hold all the way. If the pace gets honest, Songadeewin's top-end figure makes her a legitimate show contender and exotics play.

Race 6

8:21 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/2 mi · Turf

An 11-horse allowance going the route at 1.5 miles on the turf, where two horses — The Brigade and Telescopic — are separated from the field by rating and create a genuine one-two question at the top of the card.

win4The BrigadeML 6/1

The Brigade posts an 82.71 TrackWiz rating that leads this field, and a 30% career win rate is the kind of number that screams this horse knows how to close the deal. Trainer Mark E. Casse and jockey Jaime A. Torres form a sharp partnership, and the mile-and-a-half distance gives a horse with this kind of class edge plenty of time to assert himself. At 6/1 on the morning line, The Brigade looks like a legit overlay given where the TrackWiz numbers position him.

place11TelescopicML 5/2

Telescopic is the 5/2 morning-line favorite for a reason — an 80.81 rating puts her right on the heels of The Brigade and Luis Saez is one of the top jockeys in the sport. The 54 average speed figure and 6% career win rate might give pause, but allowance horses at this level with these ratings are often consistent place threats even when they don't break through to win. Victoria H. Oliver's barn sends this one out with legitimate credentials.

show9News At TenML 6/1

News At Ten carries the third-best rating at 75.21 with a 56 average speed figure — the best in the field — and a 15% career win rate that suggests she's competitive when conditions line up. Jose L. Ortiz takes the mount for trainer Peter Eurton, and that jockey-trainer combination tends to get horses positioned perfectly in route races on turf. At 6/1, this is a fair price for a horse this statistically close to the top two, making her a strong show play and a key in exotics.

Race 7

8:56 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A massive 16-horse maiden field at 6.5 furlongs on the turf, and Beach Ballad towers over this group by rating — the real question is whether the big field creates enough chaos to let some longshots sneak into the exotics.

win2Beach BalladML 3/1

Beach Ballad is the class of this field by a wide margin with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the field's next-best horse, Lucky to Dance, checks in at 70.72. Flavien Prat takes the mount for trainer Michael J. Maker, who is consistently one of the sharpest conditioners when it comes to first-time or lightly-raced turf maidens. At 3/1 morning line with those credentials, Beach Ballad is our clear top selection and the foundation of any exotics play in this race.

place7Lucky to DanceML 10/1

Lucky to Dance is an interesting profile — a 70.72 TrackWiz rating that sits comfortably in second place in a wide-open field, paired with a 54 average speed figure and trainer Darrin Miller sending this one out at 10/1. Adam Beschizza gets the call, and at double-digit odds, this is the kind of horse that makes win-place combinations and exacta boxes attractive. The value case is strong — top-two rating at a price that suggests the market hasn't fully noticed.

show15RetrospectiveML 6/1

Retrospective brings a 68.44 rating and 54 average speed figure to the gate for trainer Gregory D. Foley, who also has a strong entry in earlier races today. Tyler Gaffalione rides this one at 6/1 morning line, and the same jockey picking up multiple mounts for the same barn on a single card is a sign connections are happy with what they've seen at home. As the third-highest-rated horse in a 16-horse maiden field, Retrospective is a sensible show play and exotics anchor.

Race 8

9:29 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Stakes company at 1 1/16 miles on the turf, and this is the race of the day — three horses rated 78 or better create a sharp top tier, with the morning line setting up an intriguing value play against the 8/5 favorite.

win1Hang the MoonML 8/5

Hang the Moon is the 8/5 morning-line chalk and backs that price with the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 89.12 — a number that stands out even in stakes company. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Saffie A. Joseph Jr., one of the hottest trainers in the sport, and a 28% career win rate in stakes conditions tells you this horse is the real deal. That combination of top rating, top barn, and top jockey makes Hang the Moon our best bet of the race.

place4MiwaML 5/2

Miwa checks in at an 85.31 rating — just 3.81 points behind the top horse — and Jose L. Ortiz takes the mount for Joe Sharp, who has multiple runners on today's card and is clearly firing on all cylinders at this meet. A 22% career win rate in what is presumably stakes-level competition is solid, and at 5/2, Miwa offers decent value as a place horse if Hang the Moon gets her alone on the lead. The gap between these two and the rest of the field is meaningful.

show3May Day ReadyML 7/2

May Day Ready posts a 78.85 rating with Flavien Prat aboard for trainer Richard Mandella — a Hall of Fame horseman who has an exceptional record with turf horses at this level. A 33% career win rate is elite for stakes company, and at 7/2, this horse offers real value in trifecta and exacta construction. May Day Ready is the kind of runner who fires consistently and rarely runs a bad race, making her the right show play in a tight top-three.

Race 9

10:15 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open 16-horse allowance at one mile on the turf where the top of the ratings is genuinely stacked — Paseo and Infinite Sky are separated by a mere 0.06 points and both could easily win this race.

win4PaseoML 6/1

Paseo edges out Infinite Sky for the top TrackWiz rating at 82.71, a narrow but meaningful distinction in a field this competitive. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. takes the mount for the Ian R. Wilkes barn, which also enters Raconteuse in this race — a sign the trainer is live with multiple runners. A 12% career win rate and 55 average speed figure round out a profile that, when combined with the Hernandez-Wilkes partnership, justifies the top spot on our ticket at 6/1.

place1Infinite SkyML 7/2

Infinite Sky is essentially co-top-rated at 82.65 with Flavien Prat in the irons for Brad H. Cox — two of the most formidable names in the sport. The 7/2 morning-line favorite status and 16% career win rate paint a picture of a consistent, professional competitor, and a 54 average speed figure is in line with the better horses in this field. If Paseo gets the win, Infinite Sky is the most likely horse to be right behind her.

show10Miss PharaohML 8/1

Miss Pharaoh checks in at a 73.84 TrackWiz rating — third-best in this field — with Mario Gutierrez aboard for trainer Matthew Sims at 8/1 morning line. That's a meaningful price gap for a horse with the third-best number in a 16-horse allowance field, and a 53 average speed figure is competitive with the top tier. Miss Pharaoh is the show play that makes trifecta and superfecta tickets affordable without sacrificing too much upside.

Race 10

10:52 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 5/16 mi · Turf

The late stakes at 1 5/16 miles — that's a rare distance that truly tests stamina — and Stellify is the dominant figure in this field by every metric, though a wide-open second and third spot makes the exotics interesting.

win8StellifyML EVN

Stellify is the clear top choice here with a 90.0 TrackWiz rating — highest on the entire day's card — and an even-money morning line that the market fully supports. Flavien Prat rides for Brad H. Cox, and a 42% career win rate is extraordinary for any horse at any level. Over this demanding 1 5/16-mile distance on turf, a horse this class-superior simply needs to be healthy and on her game to do the job.

place9Golden SunshineML 9/2

Golden Sunshine is the most intriguing place play in this race at 9/2 — a 67.48 TrackWiz rating that puts her second in the field but well behind Stellify, with Jaime A. Torres aboard for trainer Eoin G. Harty. A 16% career win rate and the longest-distance grind in turf racing may actually suit a horse whose profile suggests she can stay all day. If Stellify has any kind of trouble in a route this long, Golden Sunshine is the most likely beneficiary.

show6Pin Up BettyML 8/1

Pin Up Betty carries a 52.94 rating and 20% career win rate into the gate for trainer Michael J. Maker with Tyler Gaffalione up at 8/1 morning line. That combination of a respected trainer, a top-shelf jockey, and a double-digit price makes Pin Up Betty the value show play in this stakes field. At this marathon distance, horses with a high win rate and professional connections often find the board even when facing better competition.

Race 11

11:23 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

A 16-horse allowance optional claimer at 6.5 furlongs on the turf — a big, messy field where the pace will be hectic early and the two horses with clearly superior TrackWiz ratings stand well above the crowd.

win4MurdockML 4/1

Murdock leads all comers with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and a field-best average speed figure of 58, a combination that makes a strong case for a top selection in even a chaotic 16-horse field. Walter A. Rodriguez picks up the mount for Larry Rivelli, and a 28% career win rate suggests this horse is a reliable winner when he gets conditions he likes. At 4/1, the price is fair for a horse with this kind of rating edge, and the pace setup at 6.5 furlongs on the turf should suit a horse that can run big figures.

place3ElnajdML 5/2

Elnajd brings an 80.65 TrackWiz rating and a 40% career win rate — an elite number that suggests this horse wins races more often than not when he fires. Flavien Prat takes the mount for Brad H. Cox, adding the same dominant jockey-trainer team we've seen throughout the card. At 5/2, Elnajd is a solid place play and would be the co-favorite on most cards — our analysis simply favors Murdock by a hair on the ratings.

show6DhababML 8/1

Dhabab draws attention at 8/1 morning line with a 68.15 TrackWiz rating, a 15% career win rate, and a 56 average speed figure that's right in the mix with the top horses in this field. Tyler Gaffalione rides for trainer Edward Vaughan, and in a 16-horse sprint on turf, post position and traffic luck play a huge role — Gaffalione is one of the best at navigating those situations. At double-digit odds, Dhabab is the show value play that can pay real money in the trifecta.

Race 12

11:54 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Turf

The card closes with another large maiden turf field — 16 horses going 6.5 furlongs — where the ratings are tightly compressed and pedigree and connections may be the most reliable differentiators.

win9Hollywood StarletML 3/1

Hollywood Starlet leads the TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 and pairs with Flavien Prat for trainer Philip D'Amato, a combination that consistently performs at a high level with maiden turf runners. An average speed figure of 57 is tied for the field's best and reinforces the rating leadership in a wide-open field. At 3/1 on the morning line, Hollywood Starlet is the natural foundation pick and the horse to beat in this finale.

place6A La VieML 9/2

A La Vie is the Joe Sharp entry with Jose L. Ortiz in the irons, and those two names alone command respect at any level. A 54.17 TrackWiz rating and 55 average speed figure give this filly real credentials in what is otherwise a relatively even field below the top pick. At 9/2 morning line, A La Vie is a smart place play and the kind of horse you anchor in exacta and trifecta tickets when a big favorite is on top.

show10Toco DancerML 6/1

Toco Dancer draws an interesting ticket at 6/1 morning line with a 51.67 rating and Luis Saez up for trainer Brian Lynch — a respected horseman who knows how to get maiden turf horses ready to run. Without a published average speed figure, the unknown factor cuts both ways, but Saez rarely gets on a horse without a legitimate chance in a maiden, and Lynch's record on turf gives this one credibility. As the third selection in a wide-open 16-horse maiden, Toco Dancer is a live show play at a fair price.

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Kentucky Downs under clear skies, firm turf, and two stakes on the card — this is a day worth playing seriously. Our free best bets start with Viking Quest (Race 3, 84.17 rating, 5/1 ML) as the strongest early value, and Stellify (Race 10, 90.00 rating) headlining the premium card. Full picks, pace projections, and exotic breakdowns for all 12 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers — check out our plans at /pricing and get the complete edge before the first race goes off.

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