Free Kentucky Downs Picks & Predictions

Jazz Queen (11) sits second in the ratings at 55 and owns the co-best average speed figure in the field at 55 alongside a handful of others. Trainer Joe Sharp is a proven hand on turf routes, and Axel Concepcion gives her a live rider at a fair 4/1 morning line. She's the kind of horse who figures to be involved late and offers solid place coverage in a wide-open affair.

Classic Song (2) checks in with a 53.33 TrackWiz rating and draws the services of Wesley A. Ward, whose barn is perennially dangerous with turf newcomers and lightly raced types. Luan Machado takes the mount, and the 5/1 ticket gives you solid show value in a field this deep and unpredictable.

Waittilnextyear (3) is our longshot angle masquerading as a place pick at 15/1 — the 69.58 rating is second-best in the field and frankly demands respect at that price. Trainer Conor Murphy has a knack for spotting these maiden turf routes, and Danny Sheehy keeps the mount. If Caragogo draws most of the attention in the betting, Waittilnextyear could easily sneak into the exacta at a generous price.

Ollie Luke Out (6) brings a 68.22 rating and goes at a fair 7/2 morning line, making him the logical show safety net in this spot. Trainer Richard E. Dutrow Jr. knows how to have horses ready to fire first off, and Dylan Davis is one of the sharper pilots in this colony. He's the type who'll be near the pace and could hold on for a check even if something better is sitting on the front end.

Calamity (2) is one of the more intriguing price plays on the entire card at 10/1 — her 73.44 rating is second-best in the field, and trainer Joe Sharp consistently puts horses in spots where they can fire. Ben Curtis gets the mount and is a tough out in these turf routes. The 6% career win rate is modest, but the class of the field and the rating say she belongs right in the mix for the exacta.

Caviar Breakfast (6) rates third on our TrackWiz model at 69.18 and carries a 14% career win rate that's respectable in an allowance field. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is one of the premier turf riders in the region, and trainer Kenneth G. McPeek knows exactly how to spot these optional claiming allowance spots. She makes excellent show sense and projects as a key exotic component at 9/2.