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Keeneland Picks & Predictions — October 24, 2026

October 24, 202610 racesAll Keeneland picks

Keeneland is putting on a show today. Ten races, three of them Stakes, and a picture-perfect late-October afternoon — clear skies, 68°F, and a fast Keeneland dirt strip that should play right into the hands of horses with early speed. This is exactly the kind of card you circle on the calendar.

We've got action from maiden claiming sprints all the way up to a 1 1/8-mile Stakes on the dirt, plus two turf routes that'll test closers on a firm Keeneland lawn. Whether you're hunting singles or building multi-race tickets, there's something here for every style of handicapper.

TrackWiz has rated all ten races and found plays we like across the board — from a potential overlay in the maiden special weight to a Stakes contender posting the day's highest rating. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer on the dirt mile where first-out runners dominate the field — the morning line tells the story, but our ratings suggest the chalk has a significant edge over a muddled middle tier.

win7Main MischiefML 8/5

Main Mischief is the clear standout here by our model, posting a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 — more than 20 points clear of the next best horse in the field. Michael W. McCarthy is no stranger to winning with first-time starters, and Edgar Morales gets the call aboard the 8/5 morning line favorite. At a mile on the dirt, pace scenarios tend to sort themselves out and let the most talented horse win — and right now, our numbers say that's this one.

place4DepencierML 10/1

Depencier is an intriguing price at 10/1 on the morning line despite carrying our second-highest rating in the race at 68.3 — a significant gap between morning line odds and model confidence. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun has a track record of placing horses to win first out, and Yomar Ortiz, Jr. is a capable hand at getting a green horse into position. If Main Mischief has any issues breaking or settling, Depencier is well-positioned to collect a piece.

show3WangshuML 5/1

Wangshu checks in with a 47.74 rating and ties for the field's best average speed figure at 54, giving trainer Andrew McKeever a legitimate contender at 5/1. Axel Concepcion has the rail looks to save ground on the far turn, which matters in a one-mile maiden claimer where position can be everything. At single-digit odds, Wangshu offers reasonable show value in multi-horse exotics.

Race 2

5:32 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Two heavy hitters — Lolo Le Plume and Majestical — square off at the top of the morning line in a claiming sprint-turned-distance test, with a legitimate pace question that could open the door for Wine Party at price.

win2Lolo Le PlumeML 2/1

Lolo Le Plume tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and draws the services of Irad Ortiz, Jr., one of the best in the business at rating pace and saving ground on the front end. The 2/1 morning line is fair given the strength of the field, and trainer Robert B. Hess, Jr. knows how to have a horse ready for a surface test like this. The 1 1/16-mile dirt distance suits a closer profile, and Irad knows exactly how to thread the needle on a horse with this kind of ceiling.

place5MajesticalML 7/5

Majestical is only a whisker behind at 87.83 in our ratings and carries a 16% career win rate — identical to Trusty Troutman but with considerably stronger model backing. Peter Eurton ships in with Luis Saez, a pairing that tends to fire in spots like this, and at 7/5 on the morning line, Majestical figures to be right there turning for home. The slight rating gap between Majestical and Lolo Le Plume makes the place slot the safe landing spot.

show3Wine PartyML 8/1

Wine Party is the show value play here at 8/1 on the morning line, rated 66.56 by TrackWiz and carrying an 11% career win rate. Tyler Gaffalione gives trainer David Jacobson a top-shelf pilot, and if the two favorites set each other up in a pace duel, Wine Party could be sitting pretty in third with a clear run to the wire. At those odds, tossing Wine Party into a trifecta underneath is smart business.

Race 3

6:04 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Commitment Fund lands as the morning-line favorite in a maiden special weight, but our ratings tell a different story — Top Drawer and Our Forefathers rate higher and offer better value at overlaid odds.

win4Top DrawerML 9/2

Top Drawer posts the field's top TrackWiz rating at 84.9 and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. from the four hole — a dream setup for a horse trained by Brad H. Cox, one of Keeneland's most dangerous trainers at any point in the meet. The 9/2 morning line looks generous given that our model has him clearly ahead of even the odds-on Commitment Fund. His average speed of 54 ties the field's best, and at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, Cox horses tend to be well-prepared for a two-turn test.

place5Our ForefathersML 7/2

Our Forefathers is nearly as strong at 82.82 in our ratings and comes in at 7/2 on the morning line, giving Peter Eurton and Jose L. Ortiz a legitimate shot at upstaging the chalk. This horse profiles as a stalker type that can sit off a contested pace and pounce late, which is exactly the scenario we'd expect in a competitive MSW. If Top Drawer gets to the front cleanly, Our Forefathers figures to be the one most likely to chase him down.

show7Commitment FundML EVN

Commitment Fund is listed as the even-money favorite on the morning line, but our ratings peg him at 60 — notably behind both Top Drawer and Our Forefathers. That said, Chad C. Brown training and Tyler Gaffalione riding is a combination that demands respect in any field, and the horse's average speed of 54 ties for the best in the field. As a show pick, Commitment Fund gives your exotic tickets a dose of chalk insurance that's hard to leave off entirely.

We're opening up three races for everyone today — Races 1, 2, and 3 — and they tell a clean story. All three are on the dirt at a mile or beyond, which means pace scenario and class mean everything. Main Mischief (Race 1, 8/5 morning line, 89.12 TrackWiz rating) headlines the free card and posts the joint-highest rating among the free picks. If the early pace sets up right, this one could wire the field. Lolo Le Plume in Race 2 is the chalk at 2/1 in a Claiming mile-and-sixteenth — a solid class horse we respect at that price. And in Race 3, Top Drawer at 9/2 in the Maiden Special Weight catches our eye as a potential value angle; that morning line suggests the market hasn't fully caught up to what our numbers show.

The dirt is playing fast under clear skies, and early speed has historically held a slight edge at Keeneland in these conditions. Keep that in mind when you're handicapping today's free races — horses that can get position out of the gate without burning themselves up are going to be tough to beat.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:36 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full field of twelve takes the turf in this allowance at 1 1/16 miles — Sneakily is the standout on our ratings, but double-digit overlays lurk in the middle of the pack that could make exactas and trifectas very playable.

win12SneakilyML 8/5

Sneakily tops the entire field with a 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the same elite figure that powered Race 1's top selection — and comes in at 8/5 on the morning line with Irad Ortiz, Jr. aboard for Brad H. Cox. A 25% career win rate is solid for a turf horse at this level, and Cox's operation is consistently sharp when pointing toward Keeneland's autumn turf meet. At 8/5, the price isn't generous, but the quality of the horse and connections makes this a confident best bet.

place9Infinite SkyML 8/1

Infinite Sky rates at 61.87 for trainer Brad H. Cox, meaning Cox saddles both the top pick and a strong second option in the same race — a powerful stable day. Luis Saez takes the mount, and with a 14% career win rate, Infinite Sky has shown enough ability to suggest a place finish is very much within reach at 8/1 odds. At that price, Infinite Sky is a genuine value play in place exotics and underneath in tri tickets.

show5JalilaML 8/1

Jalila checks in at 60.12 in our ratings and brings a 9% career win rate to the table for trainer George Weaver with Adam Beschizza in the irons. The 8/1 morning line matches Infinite Sky, so we essentially have two well-priced horses clustered just below our top pick — which makes Jalila an attractive show selection for anyone spreading horizontally in the trifecta. Weaver does solid work on the grass circuit, and this mare's average speed of 55 ties for the field's best alongside several rivals.

Race 5

7:08 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse maiden claimer at six furlongs brings out a chaotic pace scenario — speed is plentiful, and our ratings point to a pair of outsiders who could clean up if the pace collapses the front-runners.

win10By La RinaML 7/2

By La Rina leads all horses in this race with a 80.92 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 56 — tied for the field's best. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's still some value here for trainer Michael A. Tomlinson, who wheels out By La Rina with Axel Concepcion aboard. In a maiden claimer at six furlongs, horses with the best speed figures almost always find their way into the money, and By La Rina checks that box emphatically.

place11Allison AvenueML 8/1

Allison Avenue rates second in the field at 77.46 and also posts an average speed figure of 56, matching By La Rina at the top of that category. Jose L. Ortiz gets the call for Steven M. Asmussen, one of the most accomplished trainers in the game, and the 8/1 morning line represents real overlay territory. If By La Rina hits the front and kicks clear, Allison Avenue has the raw figures to be the closest pursuer.

show7Order RestoredML 10/1

Order Restored brings a 76.88 TrackWiz rating — only a fraction behind Allison Avenue — and figures to appreciate a pace scenario where frontrunners have to work hard early over six furlongs. Tyler Gaffalione pilots for D. Whitworth Beckman, and the 10/1 morning line price makes Order Restored a prime exotic target. With an average speed figure of 55, this horse has the natural ability to close into a tiring field and grab a piece.

Race 6

7:40 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A tight five-horse stakes at six furlongs features Booked as a heavy morning-line favorite, but Conviction and Grand Yaupon both carry unbeaten or near-unbeaten records that could make this race more competitive than the odds suggest.

win5BookedML 6/5

Booked earns the field's top rating at 89.71 and lands Jose L. Ortiz from the five post — about as strong a combination as you'll find at this level. Steven M. Asmussen's barn has a 40% career win rate with this horse, and the average speed figure of 55 ties Grand Yaupon for the field's best. At 6/5 on the morning line, Booked is a short price, but the gap between this horse and the rest of the field in our ratings is hard to argue against.

place2Grand YauponML 9/5

Grand Yaupon rates second in the field at 66.08 and carries a 40% career win rate, giving trainer Steven M. Asmussen a two-pronged attack in this race — a luxury the rest of the field simply doesn't have. Keith J. Asmussen rides, keeping this one in the family, and the 9/5 morning line suggests the market expects a very competitive effort. At six furlongs on the dirt, Grand Yaupon's speed figure of 55 sets up perfectly for a horse that can press the pace and hold on.

show1ConvictionML 5/2

Conviction brings a perfect 100% career win rate to the table and draws Tyler Gaffalione for Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. — a trainer who knows how to keep horses undefeated for a reason. The 5/2 morning line price is fair given the raw talent in this field, but Conviction's average speed figure of 54 and limited sample size create some uncertainty about whether this horse can step up in class. As a show selection, Conviction offers a safety net: if Booked or Grand Yaupon stumble, an unbeaten horse rarely runs completely empty.

Race 7

8:12 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A sprawling sixteen-horse maiden special weight at 5 1/2 furlongs is as wide-open as it gets — multiple horses are making debuts or have limited records, and our ratings point to a double-digit longshot as the top selection.

win11Summer DreamML 10/1

Summer Dream tops our model at 76.88 despite going off at 10/1 on the morning line — a meaningful disconnect between public perception and TrackWiz analysis. Edgar Morales gets the call for trainer John Ennis, and an average speed figure of 55 gives this filly the raw tools to fire on the front end at five and a half furlongs. In a large, chaotic field of maidens, a horse with a clear ratings advantage and a trainer who knows how to spot a horse against the right field is exactly the profile you target.

place14Quartz MountainML 3/1

Quartz Mountain goes postward at 3/1 for Wesley A. Ward — a trainer who has built a career on sprinting juveniles and knows exactly how to have a first-out type ready to fire on debut. Jose L. Ortiz is one of the best sprint riders in the game, and Quartz Mountain's average speed figure of 57 is the single best in the entire field. That raw speed number in a five-and-a-half furlong dash is a genuine edge, and 3/1 is a reasonable price for a Ward first-timer with a top pilot.

show4Light HaloML 7/2

Light Halo comes in at 55.83 in our ratings and draws Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Brad H. Cox — a combination that is nearly impossible to dismiss in any race. The 7/2 morning line reflects the respect this horse commands from the market, and Cox's average speed figure of 54 keeps Light Halo competitive with the top of the field. In a show position, Light Halo offers stable-quality insurance in a race that could easily produce a messy result.

Race 8

8:44 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

A loaded thirteen-horse stakes at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt has the look of a genuine betting race — Stars and Stripes tops our ratings at 3/1 while a cluster of capable rivals like Hit Show, Nevada Beach, and This Is Uscar make the pace scenario genuinely unclear.

win8Stars and StripesML 3/1

Stars and Stripes heads our ratings at 81.76 with a 44% career win rate — one of the strongest hit rates in this entire field — and gets Luis Saez for trainer William I. Mott, a Hall of Fame conditioner who rarely enters a horse unless it belongs. The 3/1 morning line represents real value given that rating, and a speed figure of 53 is workmanlike for a horse whose win percentage does most of the talking. At 1 1/8 miles, Mott horses tend to relax beautifully and finish hard.

place1Hit ShowML 4/1

Hit Show rates second in the field at 78.85 with an outstanding 42% career win rate, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. pilots for Brad H. Cox — a pairing that has made plenty of trips to the winner's circle together. The 4/1 morning line is fair, and at a mile and an eighth, a horse with Hit Show's win percentage that is capable of rating off the pace is exactly the kind of animal that thrives at Keeneland in the fall. If Stars and Stripes handles the distance comfortably, Hit Show figures to be the horse that presses hardest.

show4Nevada BeachML 6/1

Nevada Beach rates 74 for trainer Bob Baffert — always a name worth circling in a stakes race — and carries a strong 50% career win rate that demands attention. Francisco Arrieta gets the assignment at 6/1 on the morning line, and the horse's average speed figure of 54 keeps him competitive with the field's best. At that price, Nevada Beach belongs in your trifecta underneath as a horse whose connections will always have a plan for a race like this.

Race 9

9:16 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

A massive sixteen-horse turf stakes at one mile is the most complex betting puzzle on the card — Remember Mamba tops our ratings at 3/1 while Alpyland, Touch of Fire, and Bottas all rate well enough to scramble the result.

win7Remember MambaML 3/1

Remember Mamba sits atop our ratings at 87.08 with a 50% career win rate — excellent for a grass stakes horse — and Jose L. Ortiz climbs aboard for trainer Cherie DeVaux, a combination that is quietly effective on the turf circuit. The 3/1 morning line is the sweet spot for a horse of this quality: enough juice in the price to make the bet worth firing, but enough market respect to validate the selection. At one mile on turf, a horse with a 50% win rate and a top pilot from a good post position is a straightforward best bet.

place12AlpylandML 9/2

Alpyland rates second in the field at 83.41 and brings the field's highest career win percentage among the top contenders at 46%, with Javier Castellano up for Mark E. Casse — one of the premier turf trainers in North America. The 9/2 morning line is an overlay relative to our model's confidence level, and an average speed figure of 55 ties for the field's best among the contenders we're using. Casse rarely ships to Keeneland's fall turf meet without a live horse, and Alpyland fits the profile.

show11Touch of FireML 5/1

Touch of Fire rates third in the field at 79.22 with a 42% career win rate and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Brad H. Cox — an elite pairing for a competitive turf stakes. The 5/1 morning line is another price we'd take in a heartbeat for a horse rated this highly, and the average speed figure of 55 matches the top tier of this field. In a sixteen-horse turf race where traffic and pace can create chaos, having a Cox/Irad horse in your show spot is about as solid a hedge as this card offers.

Race 10

9:48 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

The finale is an allowance optional claimer at 1 1/8 miles that tightens up nicely at the top — Preside, Sassmaster, and Our Moneyman are separated by only a handful of rating points, setting the stage for a genuine three-way battle.

win10PresideML 7/2

Preside leads our model at 86.35 with a 50% career win rate — one of the strongest percentages on today's card — and Jose L. Ortiz gets the call for Steven M. Asmussen from the outside post. The 7/2 morning line is the best price among the top trio, making this the clearest value angle in the race. At 1 1/8 miles on the dirt, a horse with Preside's win rate and an elite jockey tends to find a way to the front at exactly the right moment.

place1SassmasterML 2/1

Sassmaster rates 82.51 with a matching 50% career win rate and gets John R. Velazquez for Todd A. Pletcher — about as blue-chip a combination as the sport offers. The 2/1 morning line makes Sassmaster the public's choice, and while our model prefers Preside by a slim margin, the gap is narrow enough that Sassmaster is a very comfortable place selection. Pletcher horses at Keeneland in October are always worthy of respect.

show2Our MoneymanML 3/1

Our Moneyman rates third at 79.45 with a 30% career win rate, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the mount for W. Bret Calhoun at 3/1 on the morning line. This is a deep field with three legitimate contenders clustered at the top, and Our Moneyman has the figures to run with both Preside and Sassmaster if either has an off day. Including Our Moneyman on the show end of your trifecta turns this into a manageable three-horse box among horses our model genuinely respects.

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A gorgeous Keeneland afternoon, three Stakes races, and a fast track that should produce clean, honest running lines. Our top plays are Booked in Race 6 (89.71 rating, day's best), Main Mischief in Race 1, and — for value hunters — Top Drawer at 9/2 in Race 3. Full card analysis, pace maps, and exotic tickets are all available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there today — now let's cash some tickets.

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