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Keeneland Picks & Predictions — October 23, 2026

October 23, 202610 racesAll Keeneland picks

It's a beautiful Friday at Keeneland — clear skies, 67°F, and the kind of autumn afternoon that makes the limestone country of Lexington feel like the center of the racing universe. With the fall meet humming along, today's 10-race card serves up a little bit of everything: maiden claimers to get things rolling, a pair of stakes races anchoring the back half, and some lively turf action in between.

The track has been playing fair on both the dirt and the grass, so pace scenario and class are going to be your two biggest levers today. We've got three races open to every TrackWiz reader, with seven premium breakdowns locked in for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

A deep maiden claiming opener where the TrackWiz ratings create a clear tier at the top — but with all first-time or winless runners in a 6.5-furlong dash, pace scenario and post position could shuffle the deck.

win7Lasting LegacyML 7/2

Lasting Legacy is the standout on our ratings at 86.35 — a full 14 points clear of the next horse in the field — and Jose L. Ortiz in the irons is exactly the kind of booking that signals connections are serious. The 7/2 morning line is fair but shouldn't be taken for granted in a maiden claimer where form is hard to verify. At 6.5 furlongs on dirt, Ortiz will have options to rate or press, and that tactical flexibility is a real edge in a field of unknowns.

place9TelecasterML 6/1

Telecaster (6/1) grades out second on the TrackWiz model at 72.71 and matches the field-best average speed figure of 55. Trainer Hutch Holsapple doesn't have a household name, but this horse is priced right to offer place value if Lasting Legacy draws all the money. In a race this wide open, Telecaster's speed profile makes him a logical exacta complement.

show8Boss' DeedML 9/2

Boss' Deed checks in third on our ratings at 69.06, a solid number in this field, and the 9/2 morning line suggests the market is already taking notice. Jockey Axel Concepcion is an aggressive rider who can capitalize if the pace collapses up front. He rounds out a logical trifecta wheel from the top of the TrackWiz board.

Race 2

5:32 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 7 fur · Dirt

This Starter Allowance at 7 furlongs has a clear top two on the ratings sheet, but the competitive career win percentages across the field suggest a field that knows how to hit the board — making this trickier than it looks.

win8Sassy PrincessML 4/1

Sassy Princess leads our ratings at 85.62 and brings a 26% career win percentage — the second-highest in the field — which means she's a horse that wins races, not just hits the board. Tyler Gaffalione takes the mount, and he's one of the most in-demand riders in the country for a reason. At 4/1 on the morning line, she represents genuine value given how far ahead of the field she grades on the TrackWiz model. The 7-furlong dirt distance gives a versatile horse plenty of room to stalk and pounce.

place6ProgenyML 9/2

Progeny grades out at 67.27 on our model and carries a 17% career win rate, and trainer Jason G. Cook puts Rafael Bejarano aboard — a rider who consistently gets horses to run their race. At 9/2, there's place value here if Sassy Princess takes the win spot and Progeny grinds to the board as a closer or stalker. He's the kind of horse who fits naturally into exactas with our top pick.

show4Charlee MaeML 6/1

Charlee Mae (6/1) posts a 60.44 rating and a 19% career win percentage, and she gets Jose L. Ortiz — a mounting that tends to draw attention in the paddock and for good reason. Trainer Kelli Martinez has her primed for a forward effort here, and the class of a Starter Allowance suits a horse with her profile. She's the show piece that makes the trifecta worth playing.

Race 3

6:04 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A massive 14-horse maiden claiming field going a mile on dirt — the biggest field of the day — and with a bunch of zeroes in the speed column and no career wins anywhere, this is a genuine guessing game with a handful of rating standouts.

win4Soccer SocksML 7/2

Soccer Socks tops our ratings at 55.83 and draws one of the best jockeys in the country in Irad Ortiz Jr., who rarely climbs aboard without a live chance. Trainer Brad H. Cox is a consistent performer at Keeneland and has long excelled in maiden company at this track. The 7/2 morning line reflects public confidence, and the one-mile distance on dirt should suit a horse that Cox has presumably pointed specifically to this spot.

place7Clever OneML 9/2

Clever One (9/2) rates at 54.17 under the TrackWiz model and gets Jose L. Ortiz in the saddle — a second star jockey booking in this field, which says something. Mark Casse is a multiple Keeneland meeting winner who knows how to spot horses in the right spots. With two Casse runners in the field (Upside Out is the other), watch for Clever One as the main stable hope given the higher rating and stronger jockey assignment.

show12Classic SongML 5/1

Classic Song ties for the third-highest rating in the field at 53.33 and has Wesley A. Ward training — a barn that can fire fresh horses ready to run. The 5/1 morning line makes her an accessible show option in a field this deep and unpredictable. In a 14-horse maiden, getting a Ward horse at fair odds into your trifecta is a sound play.

We're opening the card with three free best bets that span maiden claiming and starter allowance company. Lasting Legacy (R1, 7/2 ML) and Soccer Socks (R3, 7/2 ML) both surface in maiden claiming routes where class and pace shape are especially important — horses who can settle early and sustain a run on Keeneland's stretching dirt have a real edge in these spots. Sandwiched between them, Sassy Princess (R2, 4/1 ML) takes on a starter allowance field over seven furlongs, a distance that rewards tactical speed without demanding an all-out sprint from the gate.

One thread worth noting across these early races: Keeneland's dirt has historically favored horses who can sit just off the pace and pounce in the final turn. Don't overweight pure front-runners in the 6½-furlong and one-mile routes today — closers with clean trips have been doing real damage this meet.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:36 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Dirt

The claiming race of the afternoon features a loaded top half — Tarantino and Break Out both grade elite on the TrackWiz model — but the 8/5 favorite Ghazaaly from the same barn as our top pick creates a fascinating pace and betting scenario.

win4TarantinoML 4/1

Tarantino leads our ratings at 85.62 despite being listed at 4/1 — notably longer than stablemate Ghazaaly at 8/5 — which our model flags as a potential overlay. David Jacobson sends out both horses, and with Tyler Gaffalione aboard Tarantino versus Irad Ortiz Jr. on Ghazaaly, neither mount is being thrown away. Tarantino's 14% career win rate is consistent with the field, and at seven furlongs on dirt, there's every reason to think he can outrun his price.

place8Break OutML 3/1

Break Out is no throwaway at 81.26 on our model and carries the field's best career win percentage at 33% — meaning when he shows up, he tends to win outright. Luis Saez takes this mount for trainer Michael B. Campbell, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the market already respects this horse. The risk is he could be the one to beat at a price that erodes quickly at the windows — get in early.

show5GhazaalyML 8/5

Ghazaaly (8/5) is the public's choice and grades at 70.67 on our model, but our analysis actually favors Tarantino within this barn. That said, with Irad Ortiz Jr. up and the morning line favoritism, it would be reckless to leave him out of show and exotic coverage. A show bet here is essentially a hedge against our upset scenario, and the 8/5 price should mean he runs into the money at minimum.

Race 5

7:08 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A nine-horse Starter Allowance going 1 1/16 miles produces a clear top tier, with Gallo de Fuego posting a near-elite rating and Ghostwritten lurking as a potential value alternative — pace could be the decisive factor going long.

win3Gallo de FuegoML 9/2

Gallo de Fuego rates at 84.90 — the top number in this field by a meaningful margin — and trainer Joe Sharp puts Irad Ortiz Jr. on his back, arguably the day's marquee jockey assignment. Sharp has a strong record with horses going routes on dirt, and at 9/2 on the morning line, this is one of the better value propositions on the card given the rating gap. With a 17% career win rate, this horse competes hard when the conditions are right.

place6GhostwrittenML 6/1

Ghostwritten grades at 77.57 and carries a 16% career win rate for trainer Christopher Davis with Luis Saez aboard — a sharp jockey-trainer combination worth trusting at a route. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate place value here if Gallo de Fuego dominates up front and Ghostwritten stalks into a comfortable second. He's the kind of horse who improves around two turns.

show9South Bend TomML 5/1

South Bend Tom rates at 70.02 and brings a 16% career win rate into a spot where Albert Stall Jr. has him well-placed. Axel Concepcion is an active Keeneland rider who can navigate traffic in a nine-horse field, and the 5/1 morning line suggests market respect. He rounds out the exotic tickets as a horse with enough class to land in the money even if the top two fire as expected.

Race 6

7:40 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 14-horse maiden special weight sprint at 5.5 furlongs — nearly half the field shows no recorded speed figure, making this a classic Keeneland debut showcase where trainer power and pedigree intuition matter as much as hard numbers.

win8T V Time OutML 9/2

T V Time Out leads all horses with an 84.90 TrackWiz rating and is paired with Luis Saez — one of the sport's elite riders — under Hall of Fame conditioner Steven Asmussen. The 9/2 morning line looks like a genuine overlay for a horse that grades this far ahead of the field. She shows an average speed figure of 55, tops among horses in this field who have recorded a work or race fig, and the Asmussen barn at Keeneland has a long track record of sending sharp first-timers.

place3JusticoML 7/2

Justico (7/2) rates at 55.83 and gets Tyler Gaffalione for the Bob Baffert barn — and Baffert at Keeneland with a debut runner is a combination that commands respect regardless of the price. No speed figure on file means we're trusting the connections rather than the numbers, but Gaffalione doesn't take weak mounts in big fields. The 7/2 price could actually compress further by post time.

show9It's a Good TimeML 4/1

It's a Good Time (4/1) rates at 55.0 and ships in for Dallas Stewart with Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. up — the local Keeneland connection doesn't get stronger than that. Stewart is one of the shrewdest trainers at this meet and rarely runs a debut horse without intent. No speed figure is on file but the rating and rider combination tell us this horse belongs in the show slot of your exotic plays.

Race 7

8:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Shifting to the turf for a 1 1/16-mile allowance, this 13-horse field has one dominant number at the top of the TrackWiz model — Fuzzbuster at 87.08 — but Quick Pick's absurd 50% career win rate and Pure Octane's strong rating make the undercard of this race genuinely interesting.

win13FuzzbusterML 3/1

Fuzzbuster tops the entire field at 87.08 on our model and goes for trainer Victoria Oliver with Luis Saez in the irons on the turf. The 3/1 morning line makes him the market favorite and our top pick simultaneously, always a reassuring alignment. His average speed figure of 56 leads the field, and the 12% career win rate, while modest, likely reflects a horse who's been running in tougher spots. On the right surface and at a fair price, this looks like a confident best bet.

place3Pure OctaneML 6/1

Pure Octane rates at 71.95 and goes for trainer McLean Robertson with Jose L. Ortiz — a combination that knows how to place a horse in an allowance. The 6/1 morning line offers real place value for a horse who grades solidly in the upper tier. With a 20% career win rate, Pure Octane is a horse who produces when spots set up right, and a one-mile-plus turf route suits closers who can save ground.

show1Lucky MischiefML 8/1

Lucky Mischief (8/1) brings a 20% career win rate and a solid 63.38 rating for trainer Michael Maker, who is one of the better turf conditioners in the country. John Velazquez, a turf specialist of the highest order, takes the mount — and that booking alone warrants inclusion in your show and trifecta plays. The 8/1 price is a modest overlay for a horse with this profile.

Race 8

8:44 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

Stakes company at 6 furlongs on dirt, and the TrackWiz ratings reveal a decisive standout at the top — though the high career win percentages throughout this seven-horse field mean nearly every runner has proven they can close the deal.

win7EleweneML 3/1

Elewene leads all starters with an 87.08 rating and a 66% career win percentage — meaning two of every three times this filly has stepped on a track, she's won. Trainer Dale Romans puts Jose L. Ortiz aboard for this stakes assignment, and that's the kind of rider-trainer-horse alignment you circle on a card. At 3/1 on the morning line, she's not a gift price in stakes company, but the rating dominance and win rate make her a confident selection as our best bet of the race.

place2Miss AnnaML 7/2

Miss Anna (7/2) rates at 73.75 and comes in with a 33% career win rate under Brendan Walsh, one of the sharper stakes trainers at the Keeneland fall meet. Tyler Gaffalione picks up the mount — he's been one of the busiest and most productive riders at this meet — and the 7/2 price leaves room for place value. She profiles as a stalker type who can put in a sustained run at six furlongs.

show5Angel of KirkML 9/5

Angel of Kirk (9/5) is the morning-line second choice and carries a 50% career win rate for Brad Cox — one of the meet's premier conditioners. Cox-trained stakes horses at Keeneland are always a threat, and with Irad Ortiz Jr. up, the talent is undeniable. Our model has her third in the ratings at 58.67, suggesting she's priced a tick short, but she's far too accomplished to leave off the show ticket.

Race 9

9:16 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 mi · Turf

The feature turf stakes at one mile pits two closely matched rating heavyweights — Define and Sister Troienne — against a field stocked with high career win percentages, setting up what could be a genuine battle between the class of the field and the market favorite.

win3DefineML 9/2

Define rates at 84.90 on the TrackWiz model and carries a 66% career win rate — extraordinary for a stakes-caliber horse — with Tyler Gaffalione aboard for Brendan Walsh. The 9/2 morning line makes her an overlay relative to her stablemate Sister Troienne, and our model actually gives her the edge on ratings. Walsh is one of the sharper trainers in this field and has a knack for turf runners, and a mile on grass is squarely in this horse's wheelhouse.

place5Sister TroienneML 6/5

Sister Troienne is the public's 6/5 choice and rates at 82.74 with a 55% career win rate for Brian Lynch — a record that speaks for itself at the stakes level. Irad Ortiz Jr. is aboard, which is always notable, and this horse's consistency makes her a near-certainty to land in the money. Our model has her just behind Define, but the gap is close enough that playing her for place gives you a near-automatic return in a race you're already trying to beat.

show2Spin a TuneML 10/1

Spin a Tune is the dark horse of this analysis at 10/1, carrying a 50% career win rate and the field's best average speed figure at 57. Trainer Eoin Harty has done well with turf runners at Keeneland, and Jaime Torres gets the mount in a race where the two favorites could set each other up for a closer. The 10/1 morning line makes this a legitimate value inclusion in trifecta tickets — don't overlook it.

Race 10

9:48 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

The finale is a maiden special weight going 1 1/16 miles with two horses — Al Ghadeer and Fast Gun — separating themselves from the pack on the TrackWiz model, setting up what could be a match race between two well-connected stables.

win6Al GhadeerML 5/2

Al Ghadeer leads the entire ten-horse field with an 87.81 rating — the top number of the card — and goes at 5/2 on the morning line with Danny Sheehy up for trainer Andrew McKeever. The rating advantage over even Fast Gun (84.80) is meaningful in maiden company where small edges matter. At 1 1/16 miles, a horse with this profile and this number deserves to be played on top in all exotic combinations, and the 5/2 price is workable given the margin of superiority our model shows.

place9Fast GunML 7/2

Fast Gun (7/2) rates at 84.80 and gets Jose L. Ortiz for Steven Asmussen — one of the most powerful jockey-trainer pairings you'll find anywhere in American racing. Asmussen is a Keeneland fixture and knows how to place a maiden for a big debut, and Ortiz rarely needs more than one look to understand a horse's capabilities. At 7/2, Fast Gun is the natural place horse if Al Ghadeer takes the show, and he could easily flip the script.

show3Cynical HumorML 6/1

Cynical Humor (6/1) rates third at 71.80 and draws Walter Rodriguez for Wesley Ward — a trainer with a proven eye for debut horses at Keeneland, particularly those going longer. The gap between Cynical Humor and the next horse in the field is substantial, making this a clear three-horse race on ratings. At 6/1 in the morning line, she's the logical show option and trifecta anchor behind the two heavyweights.

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Clear skies, a two-stakes card, and a field full of intriguing angles — Keeneland is delivering today. Start with Lasting Legacy, Sassy Princess, and Soccer Socks as your free best bets, and let the races build toward what should be a sharp finish with Al Ghadeer and the stakes contenders. Subscribers can find pace projections, ticket breakdowns, and our full analysis for all 10 races in the premium section. Good luck out there — race smart.

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