Keeneland Picks & Predictions — October 22, 2026

Cicero Ave slots in at 7/2 with a 55.83 rating and a 54 average speed figure — the second-ranked horse in this field and a logical alternative to the favorite on the place end. Tyler Gaffalione is a tremendous pilot at this distance, and trainer Robert Medina puts this runner in a spot where the morning line suggests forward intent. He should be a factor throughout.

Golden Reserve at 6/1 is the third-ranked horse in our model with a 51.67 rating, trained by Riley Mott — a conditioner who does excellent work with lightly raced maidens. Jaime A. Torres picks up the ride, and the 54 average speed figure is consistent with the upper tier of this field. In a race with an even-money favorite dominating the betting, 6/1 on the third-best horse is a reasonable show price.

Hereforagoodtime is a 5/2 morning-line second choice with an 82.74 rating and a 14% career win rate — not gaudy numbers, but the rating tells a more complete story. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Brendan P. Walsh, a turf specialist who consistently produces sharp efforts at Keeneland in the fall meet. If Cliffs finds any trouble, this horse is right there to capitalize.

Power of Destiny opens at 6/1 with a 67.07 rating and the best value position on the show end of this race. A 16% career win rate is modest but functional at the allowance level, and Jaime A. Torres gives the James Bentley Begg trainee a reliable pilot at the distance. With the top two drawing most of the money, 6/1 on the third-rated horse in an allowance turf route is worth including in your exotics.

Getaway Girl slots in at 7/2 with a 55.83 rating for Cherie DeVaux, who also has the win pick in Race 7 — clearly a trainer in good form at this Keeneland meet. Tyler Gaffalione is on board, making this a jockey-trainer combination that should be respected in any maiden race. She's the most logical place alternative in a field this compressed.

Lucerra opens at 9/2 for the Riley Mott barn with a 54.17 rating — tied with Circe for third in our model but getting a cleaner post position. Jaime A. Torres rides, consistent with the Mott barn's pattern of using reliable pilots for their Keeneland starters. At 9/2 with a top-five rating in the field, she's a legitimate show option in what could be an exciting finish.

American Pearl posts a 66.15 rating and a 33% career win rate — the best winning percentage among any horse in our top picks for this race. Trainer William Walden sends this runner out with Axel Concepcion, and the 9/2 morning line price is fair for a horse with that kind of career profile at the allowance level. She's a strong place play if Atropa proves difficult to beat outright.

Passionfruit at 6/1 is the third-rated horse in the race with a 65.51 score and a 25% career win rate that mirrors Atropa's own pedigree of winning. Trainer Peter Eurton is a respected conditioner when placing horses in appropriate spots, and Danny Sheehy gives this runner a capable pilot who knows how to rate a horse from off the pace. At 6/1, there's genuine overlay value here compared to her rating position.

Nobals opens at 9/2 with an 81.76 rating and leads all horses in career win percentage at 37% — the most efficient winner in this field on a per-start basis. David Egan gets the call for Larry Rivelli, and the 57 average speed figure puts this horse right in the thick of what looks like a very fast pace scenario up front. He's the safest place ticket in this race.

Arrest Me Red is the show play at 10/1 — a second Ward runner who rates out at 76.88 with a 35% career win rate, making the morning line feel like an opportunity. Walter Rodriguez rides, and while the 56 average speed figure is a tick below the top tier, that could set up a stalker scenario in a 5½-furlong turf sprint where pace collapse is always a factor. Two Ward horses in the same race often means one is the 'other' horse — at 10/1, this one deserves exotics consideration.

Bravojuliet is an intriguing 10/1 morning line play with a 72.65 rating — second best in the race and a full 15 points clear of the third-ranked horse. John Velazquez is aboard for trainer Victoria H. Oliver, and the 55 average speed figure matches the top of the field. This is the kind of value play TrackWiz analysis exists to surface — a legitimately well-rated horse going off at double digits because the favorite dominates the conversation.

Sock Monkey rates third in the field at 67.16 with a 54 average speed figure and lands in the Kenneth McPeek barn with Emmanuel Esquivel riding. McPeek is a Keeneland staple who consistently produces competitive maiden efforts at this track, and the 8/1 morning line gives this horse show-bet value with a meaningful ratings edge over the rest of the field. She's a solid anchor for exotic tickets.