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Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Predictions — September 29, 2026

September 29, 20269 racesAll Horseshoe Indianapolis picks

It's a beautiful Tuesday afternoon at Horseshoe Indianapolis — clear skies, 74°F, and a 9-race card that gives us plenty to work with from first post to finale. Conditions are about as good as it gets this time of year in Indiana, and with the track playing fast and the turf course firm, speed figures should translate cleanly today.

The card is a nice mix of dirt sprints, route races, and a couple of turf events that should attract some intriguing pace scenarios. We've got everything from short-field maiden claiming races to maiden special weights where first-time starters could blow the roof off — the kind of card where sharp eyes can find real value if you know where to look.

TrackWiz analysis covers all 9 races today. The first three are on us — free, full breakdowns available to every reader. Races 4 through 9 are reserved for premium subscribers, and trust us, that's where some of the most interesting angles live today.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open one-mile claiming opener, but one horse carries a TrackWiz rating nearly 20 points clear of the field — class advantage is real here even if the morning line keeps things interesting.

win11Coach KnightML 3/1

Coach Knight (11) is the standout in this field by a significant margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 against a field where the next-best sits at 70.28. Trained by Genaro Garcia and piloted by Amir Mendoza, the connections are solid and the 18% career win rate shows this horse knows how to close the deal. At 3/1 on the morning line, you're not overpaying for the top figure in the race. In a field this competitive on paper, backing the horse with the clearest numerical edge is the right move.

place5Mansfield TigerML 7/2

Mansfield Tiger (5) carries the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 70.28 and brings a career win rate of 19% — the highest in the entire field. Orlando Mojica gets the call from the Tim Eggleston barn, and at 7/2, there's enough juice here to make a place wager worthwhile. This horse profiles as a stalker type who should be around at the top of the stretch.

show4Just Like MaxML 9/2

Just Like Max (4) rates third-best on our figures at 62.86 and checks in at 14% career wins, which is respectable in a claiming field like this. Trainer Genaro Garcia doubles up with this one alongside Coach Knight, suggesting confidence from the barn. At 9/2, Just Like Max is a natural fit in trifecta coverage and makes sense as a show play in a race where the top of the field is relatively defined.

Race 2

6:41 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong maiden special weight on the dirt where TrackWiz numbers point to a clear top choice, but an 87-rated horse at 5/2 in a maiden field means value hunters should look closely at the second and third choices.

win3Big Boy ThunderML 5/2

Big Boy Thunder (3) leads our ratings in this maiden field with an 87.81 — the highest mark among horses who have run. Fernando De La Cruz has the mount for trainer Jeffrey L. Greenhill, and with an average speed figure of 55, the raw speed is there to handle this level. At 5/2, this is as close to a confident top selection as you'll find in a maiden race. When the figure advantage and the odds are both in your favor, you play it.

place2MayweatherML 3/1

Mayweather (2) rates second in the field at 73.54 and checks in at 3/1 on the morning line — fair odds for a horse that profiles as the most likely threat to the top selection. Trained by Michael W. McCarthy, a barn that knows how to spot a debut horse, and Edgar Morales has the call. The 55 average speed matches up well enough to suggest a place finish is within reach if Big Boy Thunder handles the pressure.

show4Thunder AppealML 2/1

Thunder Appeal (4) comes in at a 71.02 TrackWiz rating — the third-best figure in the field — and drew the morning line favorite role at 2/1, which tells you the public and the connections have faith. Yedsit Hazlewood rides for Wesley A. Ward, a trainer with a strong national reputation for bringing first-timers ready. The 56 average speed is the top mark in the field, and if pace pressure develops up front, this horse could be sitting on a big effort.

Race 3

7:12 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers going 5.5 furlongs on the dirt often come down to who has the best early foot, and one horse in this field has a figure so far above the rest it almost feels unfair — but short-priced favorites in maiden claimers always carry risk.

win3Powerful JusticeML 4/5

Powerful Justice (3) carries a 90.00 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in the field by 22 points — and draws the role of heavy morning-line favorite at 4/5. Fernando De La Cruz takes the mount for Randy L. Klopp, a trainer who knows this track. The 53 average speed is solid for the distance, and when a horse's rating is this far ahead of the field, you have to respect it even if the short price squeezes the win value. In maiden claiming, dominant figures tend to hold up.

place4Lil ChanceML 7/2

Lil Chance (4) is the clear second choice on our ratings at 68.00 and comes in at 7/2 on the morning line — a fair price for the horse most likely to run second if the favorite does what favorites are supposed to do. Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. gets the call for trainer Michelle L. Elliott. The 52 average speed is serviceable at 5.5 furlongs and this horse makes sense as the primary exotic partner with the top pick.

show6Leo's Beetle BombML 5/1

Leo's Beetle Bomb (6) rates third in the field at 53.33 and offers some value at 5/1 on the morning line. Joseph M. Romero rides for Stephen V. Fosdick, and while the 51 average speed isn't lighting up the charts, the ratings gap between third and fourth is meaningful enough to make this a logical show play. In a maiden claimer with a dominant favorite, trifecta plays using Leo's Beetle Bomb underneath offer some upside.

Our three free races today span a mile claiming opener, a 6-furlong maiden special weight, and a 5½-furlong maiden claimer — and the through-line is speed. On a clear day with a fast dirt track, early pace is going to be rewarded, and our top picks in all three races project to be competitive from the gate. Coach Knight (3/1 morning line) kicks things off in Race 1 with a TrackWiz rating of 87, and the value there is real at that price. Big Boy Thunder follows in Race 2 at 5/2 — a name that fits the power we're projecting in that maiden special weight field. Then there's Powerful Justice in Race 3, the morning-line favorite at 4/5 and our highest-rated selection of the three at a flat 90. When a horse rates that cleanly in a maiden claiming field, you pay attention.

The dirt is playing true today, and all three of these free picks benefit from a pace scenario that should set up their running styles. Dig into each race card below for the full breakdown.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of maiden claimers stretching to a mile on the turf — a big, wide-open grass sprint that sets up as a puzzle with multiple horses bunched between 48 and 58 on the TrackWiz scale, making exacta and trifecta coverage essential.

win5Ignoring AlanaML 4/1

Ignoring Alana (5) tops our ratings in this 14-horse turf field at 84.32 — a number that stands well clear of the second-best figure and strongly suggests this is the horse to beat. Declan Cannon gets the mount for trainer Thomas Molloy, and the 54 average speed is right in line with the top of the field. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse that dominates the rating landscape. In a wide-open maiden field like this, taking the best-figured horse at a fair price is sound handicapping.

place3ZarzuelaML 10/1

Zarzuela (3) is a TrackWiz-flagged value play at 10/1 morning line despite checking in with a 58.12 rating — the third-best mark in the field. Mitchell Murrill rides for Caio Caramori, and the 54 average speed matches up with the top runners at this distance. If you're building exotics, Zarzuela at double-digit odds underneath Ignoring Alana could pay handsomely. The rating gap to the horses below is noticeable.

show2Omi MariaML 3/1

Omi Maria (2) rates at 56.67 — right in the cluster below Zarzuela — and comes from the Riley Mott barn, a trainer who competes well at this level. Alex Achard is a capable pilot and the 54 average speed fits the mile turf distance. At 3/1, this is actually one of the shorter-priced horses in the field despite a rating that doesn't fully justify favoritism, but the connections add confidence for show and exotic purposes.

Race 5

8:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint at 5.5 furlongs where two horses — Jordans Deal and Pernicious — hold figure advantages over a wide-open middle tier, setting up a possible pace battle that could benefit a closer lurking behind them.

win5Jordans DealML 6/1

Jordans Deal (5) leads our ratings at 82.71 and posts the top average speed of 54 in the field, pointing to legitimate early ability in this sprint. Fernando De La Cruz gets the mount for Tim Eggleston — a barn that is dialed in at Horseshoe Indianapolis. At 6/1, this is excellent value for the top-rated horse in the race, and the figures here aren't close. When a horse is both the best-figured and offers double-digit morning-line odds, that's where TrackWiz analysis finds its edge.

place11PerniciousML 8/1

Pernicious (11) rates second in the field at 73.44 and is being sent out at 8/1 — a price that understates the horse's figure-based credentials. Joseph C. Bealmear rides for trainer Jose Cazares, and with a 53 average speed, the raw ability is there to compete. This horse profiles as a legitimate second choice on figures and offers real place ticket value at those odds in a field without a runaway chalk.

show7Our Lady Donna DML 7/2

Our Lady Donna D (7) rates third in the field at 68.19 and carries a 12% career win rate, which speaks to consistency at this claiming level. Samuel E. Bermudez rides for Anthony J. Granitz, and while the 52 average speed is a tick below the leaders, this horse projects to close from off the pace if a speed duel develops up front. At 7/2, she's the morning-line second choice and a natural fit in trifecta coverage.

Race 6

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

Five furlongs on the turf for first-time maiden special weight runners — a wide-open, figure-light field where trainer pedigree and connections may matter as much as raw numbers, and the ratings cluster tightly near the top.

win8Practical RoseML 7/2

Practical Rose (8) tops our ratings in this turf maiden at 55.83 and draws the Wesley A. Ward barn — one of the most respected names in North American grass racing and a trainer who consistently sends horses out ready to fire first time. Yedsit Hazlewood has the mount, continuing the Ward-Hazlewood partnership that has shown results this meet. At 7/2, this is a fair price for the top-rated horse from the top trainer, and in a maiden turf sprint, Ward firsters deserve serious respect.

place7George of WillML 9/2

George of Will (7) rates second in the field at 54.17 and draws Fernando De La Cruz from the Nicholas Vaccarezza barn. The 50 average speed is the only available figure in the field, giving a slight edge in terms of actual performance data. At 9/2, there's solid place value for a horse that posts the highest rating among those with a speed history, and De La Cruz is riding well on this circuit.

show10MartoneML 5/1

Martone (10) ties for the third-best rating in this field at 53.33 and comes from the Joe Sharp barn, a trainer with strong grass credentials. Amir Mendoza gets the mount and the 5/1 morning line offers fair value in a show ticket context. With no average speed on file, Martone is a bit of an unknown quantity, but the rating and trainer combination make this horse a legitimate exotic inclusion.

Race 7

9:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile maiden special weight on the dirt with a morning-line favorite near even money, but the figure spread between the top four horses is tight enough that this race could easily go a few different ways depending on how the pace unfolds.

win7Hoosier SurpriseML 2/1

Hoosier Surprise (7) leads the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 58.33 and draws the 2/1 morning-line favoritism — both the public and our models agree on this one. Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. gets the call for trainer Anthony J. Granitz, and the 54 average speed ties for best in the field. In a maiden race at a mile, a horse with the top rating and top connections has to be the anchor of any ticket. The crowd is right to make this the chalk.

place9No CeilingML 7/2

No Ceiling (9) rates second in the field at 55.83 and also posts a 54 average speed — matching Hoosier Surprise stride for stride on the raw figures. Andres P. Ulloa rides for Tim Eggleston, a trainer who consistently has horses ready on this circuit. At 7/2, there's genuine place value for a horse that nearly matches the top pick on every measurable metric, and this one could absolutely turn the tables if the pace scenario sets up differently.

show1Red Clay HaloML 9/2

Red Clay Halo (1) rates third at 54.17 and also posts a 54 average speed, making this a horse that fits the top cluster without much separation. Rodney A. Prescott rides for Robert E. Dobbs, Jr., and the 9/2 morning line is fair given the tight figures. Red Clay Halo offers trifecta upside at a manageable price in a race where the top three horses are separated by only four points on the TrackWiz scale.

Race 8

9:47 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf maiden special weight where three horses — Amy El, Obvious Agenda, and Whakaari — separate themselves meaningfully from the rest of the field on TrackWiz ratings, turning this into a figure-driven tri-exacta puzzle.

win1Amy ElML 5/2

Amy El (1) tops the field with an 86.42 TrackWiz rating — the clear top figure in what becomes a two-tier race on the numbers. Joseph C. Bealmear rides for Robert C. Sturgeon, and the 53 average speed fits this mile turf profile well. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price reflects the form advantage without being criminally short, and in a maiden grass route where the top figure is this clear, backing it at fair odds is the play. This is a confident top selection.

place8Obvious AgendaML 6/1

Obvious Agenda (8) rates second at 82.71 — only 3.7 points behind the top pick — which makes this horse far more dangerous than the 6/1 morning line suggests. Alex Achard gets the call for Miguel Angel Silva, and the 53 average speed matches the top choice. The odds gap is where the value lives: if you can get 6/1 on a horse with a near-identical figure to the 5/2 favorite, the place ticket on Obvious Agenda is one of the better value plays on the card.

show3WhakaariML 3/1

Whakaari (3) rates third in the field at 78.73 and brings a 3/1 morning line, making this the third legitimate option in what is essentially a three-horse race at the top. Alberto Burgos rides for Randy L. Klopp, a trainer who knows how to prepare turf horses. The 53 average speed is consistent with the top two, and while the 3/1 price is tighter, Whakaari's presence in trifecta coverage is nearly mandatory given the significant ratings gap between this horse and the fourth-best figure in the field.

Race 9

10:15 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

The finale is a 300-yard quarter-horse maiden dash — the shortest, fastest race on the card — and one horse is carrying a TrackWiz rating nearly 26 points clear of the field, making the top selection unusually straightforward in a race where fractions of a second decide everything.

win10Eos Running RoxieML 5/2

Eos Running Roxie (10) sits atop this 14-horse field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — a number that dominates this quarter-horse sprint field the same way a top miler would dominate a claiming route. Luz Daniel Martinez gets the mount for trainer Anthony F. Cunningham, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the connections clearly have confidence backed by the figures. In a 300-yard race, everything is over in a heartbeat, and having the best-rated horse in these circumstances is about as clean a bet as you'll find on the card tonight.

place12Miss Ktb 23ML 8/1

Miss Ktb 23 (12) rates second in the field at 61.84 — well back of the top pick but meaningfully ahead of the horses below. Rolando Del Rio Pina rides for Tim Eggleston, a trainer who appears twice on tonight's card and has a strong feel for this track. At 8/1 on the morning line, there's real value in connecting Eos Running Roxie on top of Miss Ktb 23 in the exacta, and this horse is the most logical second-best option when the figures are this spread out.

show3S PredestinadoML 9/2

S Predestinado (3) rates third at 59.92 and is essentially tied on figures with the fourth-best horse — but 59.92 is a clear step ahead of the mid-pack. Yovani Flores-Munoz rides for Sacramento Chavez, who also saddles fourth-place figure horse Zoomin Cartel6. At 9/2 on the morning line, S Predestinado offers enough value to anchor trifecta coverage, and the trainer's familiarity with the 300-yard distance could be a meaningful edge in such a short, explosive race.

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Today's headline plays: Powerful Justice in Race 3 is our strongest free selection at a 90 TrackWiz rating, Big Boy Thunder brings legit upside in Race 2, and premium subscribers shouldn't sleep on Eos Running Roxie closing out the card in that 300-yard sprint. It's a fun, fast card at Horseshoe Indianapolis and the weather couldn't be better. Good luck out there — and if you want the full 9-race breakdown, go premium before the gates open.

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