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Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Predictions — September 28, 2026

September 28, 20269 racesAll Horseshoe Indianapolis picks

It's a beautiful Monday at Horseshoe Indianapolis — 73°F, clear skies, and a 9-race card that's got something for every type of player. The track is playing under ideal fall conditions, which means times should be honest and speed figures will carry real meaning today.

The card mixes dirt and turf action throughout, with a pair of one-mile turf routes in Races 5 and 8 that are worth building your afternoon around. We've also got a lightning-quick 300-yard quarter-horse sprint closing out the day in Race 9 — a completely different kind of race that rewards sharp handicapping just as much as the routes do.

Three races are unlocked and free for every TrackWiz reader. The remaining six are part of our full premium breakdown. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Top TrackWiz ratings are split between three horses within a few points of each other, setting up a wide-open claiming sprint where the morning line won't tell the whole story.

win5FocacciaML 6/1

Focaccia carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71 despite going off at a generous 6/1 on the morning line — that's a notable gap between public perception and our model. The career win percentage of 7% looks modest, but this is a claiming field where raw ability and form cycle matter more than lifetime stats. Trainer Scott D. Mullins sends this one out with Jose Ramos Gutierrez in the irons, and at 6 furlongs on dirt, the pace scenario should set up well for a horse with this kind of rating edge over most of the field.

place6Luna DivaML 3/1

Luna Diva is just a tick below Focaccia with an 81.68 rating and goes at the same 6/1 morning line, meaning there's real overlay potential if the public loads up on the 2/1 favorite. Trainer Antonio Duran has Rodney A. Prescott up, and with a matching average speed figure of 55 — the joint-best in the field alongside I'malittlethirsty — this filly has the raw foot to finish close.

show3I'malittlethirstyML 6/1

I'malittlethirsty brings a 74.91 TrackWiz rating and the best career win percentage in the field at 22%, which stands out sharply in a claiming spot where most rivals are in the single digits or low teens. Mitchell Murrill takes the mount for trainer Robert M. Gorham, and the 55 average speed figure ties for tops in the race. At 6/1, this horse offers nice exotic value as a horse that knows how to hit the board.

Race 2

6:41 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden special weight mile on dirt with a full field of first-time or lightly-raced runners — trainer connections loom large here, and Brad Cox sends out a pair that split the top of the morning line.

win1First LaughML 8/5

First Laugh draws the rail for trainer Brad H. Cox, who is one of the most respected conditioners in the country when it comes to developing young horses. Going off at 8/5, this one is the public's choice, and our TrackWiz rating of 59 leads the entire field by over two points. In a maiden event where past races may be limited, the Cox-Pedroza Jr. combination and the post position draw make First Laugh the most well-rounded selection.

place4Prank At DawnML 3/1

Prank At Dawn gives Cox a second shot from the same barn, drawing post 4 at 3/1 with Fernando De La Cruz up — one of the more active jockeys on the Horseshoe Indianapolis circuit. The 56.67 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field, and having two horses in the same race from a powerhouse trainer often means one of them finds a way to the board.

show6Press ReleaseML 9/2

Press Release at 9/2 with Joseph D. Ramos riding for D. Whitworth Beckman lands in the middle of the morning line and carries a 54.17 rating — solid enough to round out the exotics. The 54 average speed figure is the best among horses with race experience in this field, giving a slight edge in terms of demonstrated ability.

Race 3

7:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field allowance sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs where two horses clearly separate from the pack on our ratings — expect a duel for supremacy between the top two in the morning line and our model alike.

win3Willy's in ChargeML 3/1

Willy's in Charge is the standout here, posting an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this race — while carrying a 40% career win percentage that is simply dominant in allowance company. Trainer Randy L. Klopp keeps this one sharp with Alberto Burgos in the saddle, and at 3/1 on the morning line, there's still some value attached to a horse who wins four out of every ten starts. The 55 average speed figure combined with that elite win rate makes this our most confident play of the early card.

place5Large PourML 5/2

Large Pour is right there at 83.22 on our rating scale and checks in with a 28% career win percentage — above average for this level. Trainer Anthony J. Granitz sends out Joseph C. Bealmear, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the market already respects this one. The pace scenario in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint should benefit closers who can sit off a quick pace, and Large Pour's profile fits that mold.

show1Stranger's ChurchML 7/2

Stranger's Church at 7/2 brings a 74.42 rating and a 17% career win rate for trainer John Haran, with Jose Ramos Gutierrez handling the riding duties. The 56 average speed figure is actually the best in the field on that metric, suggesting this horse has shown flashes of top-end ability. If the top two hook up early and flatten each other out, Stranger's Church has the numbers to swoop in for a piece.

Our three free races today span different conditions and distances, which gives you a nice cross-section of what Horseshoe Indy's card is offering. Race 1 is a 6-furlong dirt claiming sprint where Focaccia (morning line 6/1) stands out as a genuine value play — a 6/1 tag on a horse with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating in a field like this is exactly the kind of overlay we look for. In Race 2, the one-mile maiden special weight brings out First Laugh as the top choice at 8/5 on the morning line, though a 59 rating signals a wide-open maiden field where pace scenario could matter more than raw class. Race 3 is the sharpest of the free trio — Willy's in Charge (3/1 ML, 87.08 rating) in an allowance sprint at 5.5 furlongs looks like a legitimate best bet on the card.

The clear fall air and firm footing should favor horses with consistent speed figures, and all three of today's free picks profile well in those conditions. If you're only playing a few races, Races 1 and 3 offer the best risk-reward combination among the free selections.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:43 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite sits at 9/5 but our model disagrees sharply — Basil at 5/1 leads on the TrackWiz rating, setting up a potential overlay in a maiden sprint where the public and the numbers are pointing in different directions.

win4BasilML 5/1

Basil tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.17 — a full 20 points clear of the 9/5 morning line favorite — while going off at 5/1 on the morning line, which is a significant value gap our model rarely sees this cleanly. Trainer Pavel Matejka sends this one out with Dylan Machado in the irons, and a 54 average speed figure is right in the competitive range for this maiden sprint. When the model this strongly disagrees with the public price, it's worth paying attention.

place2AumoeML 9/2

Aumoe draws post 2 for trainer Dawn A. Fontenot with Joseph D. Ramos up, carrying a 67.89 rating and a 54 average speed figure that slots in nicely behind our top pick. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's fair value here for a horse that figures to get a clean trip from a good post. This is a solid place horse to anchor exacta and trifecta combinations.

show6UnresponsiveML 9/5

Unresponsive is the 9/5 morning line chalk with Fernando De La Cruz up — a top rider by any measure — but our 64.38 rating suggests the public may be slightly overestimating this one relative to Basil. Still, De La Cruz and trainer Michelle L. Elliott form a sharp combination, and a 53 average speed figure gives this horse legitimate claims to finish in the money even if it doesn't win.

Race 5

8:14 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A big field of ten takes to the turf mile in a Starter Optional Claiming event, and Crickenberger stands alone at the top of our model with a substantial rating advantage — but at 5/2, you're not getting rich if you're right.

win8CrickenbergerML 5/2

Crickenberger leads the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — more than 17 points clear of the second-ranked horse — and goes at 5/2 morning line for trainer Cipriano Contreras with Emmanuel Esquivel riding. The 54 average speed figure is competitive for this turf mile, and a 13% career win rate looks unassuming but is worth context in a large field where those numbers naturally compress. The rating gap here is large enough that this is about as close to a standout as you'll find in a ten-horse field.

place3Never Really KnowML 6/1

Never Really Know brings a 70.38 rating and an impressive 28% career win percentage for trainer Norm W. Casse — a conditioner who consistently places horses competitively on grass. Mitchell Murrill gets the call, and at 6/1, there's real value in a horse with that kind of win rate at a price the market is undervaluing. The turf mile should suit a closer with above-average ability.

show5Surprenant CoccaML 10/1

Surprenant Cocca is listed at 10/1 on the morning line but owns a 62.08 TrackWiz rating — not far off the second choice — making this one a live longshot for exotics. Trainer Claude L. Brownfield III sends out Albin Jimenez, and a 53 average speed figure keeps this horse within striking range in a competitive turf field. At double-digit odds, the risk-reward profile is attractive for trifecta players.

Race 6

8:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

Tricked You opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite in a maiden mile on dirt, and our model backs up that favoritism — but a tightly bunched mid-pack creates real exotics opportunities behind the top selection.

win1Tricked YouML 2/1

Tricked You sets itself apart from the field with a 73.87 TrackWiz rating — nearly 19 points clear of the second-best horse — and goes at 2/1 for trainer Michael E. Lauer with Danny Sheehy up. A 53 average speed figure is competitive in this maiden spot, and when a horse leads our ratings this decisively in a maiden race, the model tends to be right more often than not. This is as close to a single-horse race as the numbers suggest.

place4Chief of ChangeML 4/1

Chief of Change lines up at 4/1 for trainer Genaro Garcia with Marcelino Pedroza Jr. getting the mount — a jockey who has been consistently active and effective at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The 55.0 TrackWiz rating puts this one second in the field, though the 51 average speed figure is the lowest among horses with speed data. Still, maiden races on dirt can produce surprising pace scenarios, and Chief of Change at 4/1 is a reasonable place play.

show2My Pal PatronML 5/1

My Pal Patron draws post 2 for trainer Tim Eggleston at 5/1 with Fernando De La Cruz taking the mount — and when De La Cruz gets on a horse at this price in a maiden race, it's worth noting. The 53.33 rating and 54 average speed figure keep this one in the mix for the show spot, and Eggleston has shown a knack for placing horses to hit the board in maiden company.

Race 7

9:16 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A sprawling 12-horse maiden claiming turf field where two horses — Star Saver and Al Amjaad — stand well above the rest of the field on our ratings, making the win and place slots clearer than the chaos of the full field might suggest.

win1Star SaverML 9/2

Star Saver heads our ratings at 84.90 in this maiden claiming turf mile and one-sixteenth, drawing the rail for trainer Aaron M. West with Fernando De La Cruz up. A 53 average speed figure is right in the pack, but the rating gap over most of this field is substantial — only Al Amjaad comes close. De La Cruz on the top-rated horse in a turf maiden is a strong combination, and the 9/2 morning line offers fair value given the model's confidence.

place6Al AmjaadML 7/2

Al Amjaad is second in our ratings at 75.26 and draws post 6 with Adam Beschizza in the irons for trainer Destin G. Heath at 7/2 on the morning line. A 53 average speed figure is consistent with the top pick, and this horse projects as the most likely to give Star Saver a run for the top spot. Beschizza is a capable handler on turf, and this pairing looks like the safest place bet in the race.

show9Ain't Dere No MoML 6/1

Ain't Dere No Mo carries a 57.43 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field — for trainer Kinnon LaRose with Emmanuel Esquivel up at 6/1. The 54 average speed figure is actually one of the better marks in the race, and in a wide-open maiden claimer on turf, the third-best rating at 6/1 is exactly the kind of exotic value that can pay off. Use this one underneath in your trifectas.

Race 8

9:47 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

Steel Golden opens as a short-priced choice in this maiden turf mile and our ratings firmly agree — but Blazy at 3/1 has enough numbers to make the exacta a compelling wager.

win5Steel GoldenML 5/2

Steel Golden tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.24 — more than 18 points above the third-ranked horse — and goes at 5/2 for trainer Aaron M. West with Emmanuel Esquivel aboard. A 53 average speed figure is solid, and the combination of a top rating and a sharp jockey-trainer pairing makes this the most compelling single selection on the evening card. Esquivel has been leaned on by top connections all meet, and this is the kind of spot where that experience matters.

place2BlazyML 3/1

Blazy checks in at 68.24 on our rating scale and goes at 3/1 for trainer Ron Thompson with Joseph C. Bealmear up — a jockey who has been getting quality mounts throughout the meet. The 54 average speed figure is second-best among horses with race experience in this field. At co-second-favorite price, this is the most logical place horse to pair with Steel Golden in the exacta.

show4Prince of GraceML 3/1

Prince of Grace rounds out our top three at 56.67 for the powerhouse Brad H. Cox barn, with Fernando De La Cruz — one of the meet's leading riders — taking the mount at 3/1 on the morning line. The Cox-De La Cruz combination alone is worth including in exotics, and even without an average speed figure on record, the pedigree of connections and the training barn's reputation make this a legitimate show contender in a maiden turf field.

Race 9

10:15 PM EDT

Maiden · 300 yd · Dirt

A 13-horse maiden quarter-horse sprint at 300 yards closes out the card — these races are decided in the blink of an eye, but our model has found a clear standout in Mundaybluez, who separates from the field by a wide margin.

win6MundaybluezML 9/5

Mundaybluez owns an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse on tonight's entire card — and goes off at just 9/5 on the morning line, meaning the market has caught on. Trainer Mallory Norton sends this one out with Edgar Diaz in the irons, and in a 300-yard sprint where gate speed and early burst are everything, having the top-rated horse is about as good a spot as you can ask for. This is our most confident selection of the night.

place4Streakin Miss JessieML 5/1

Streakin Miss Jessie draws post 4 for trainer Tim Eggleston at 5/1 with Luis Eduardo Luna Diaz up, posting a 57.64 TrackWiz rating — second-best in a field of 13. Eggleston also has Tempt N Tell in this race, giving the barn two shots, and having a second entrant often means one of them finds a way into the money. At 5/1, this is a solid play to land behind the heavy favorite.

show11Alcala PoliticaML 5/2

Alcala Politica goes at 5/2 on the morning line with Edgar Diaz in the irons — the same jockey riding our top pick, Mundaybluez — for trainer Claudio Barraza. The 55.14 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and a 5/2 price on a horse showing that level of model strength in a maiden sprint is fair value. In 300-yard races, finishing order can flip in a stride, making a three-horse coverage approach smart.

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Bottom line: Horseshoe Indianapolis is dealing a solid Monday card under perfect fall weather, and our top plays are Willy's in Charge in Race 3 as the free best bet of the day and Mundaybluez in the Race 9 sprint as the highest-rated horse on the full card. For pace projections, exotic strategies, and the complete 9-race breakdown, the full analysis is waiting for TrackWiz subscribers — check out our plans here. Good luck at the windows.

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