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Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Predictions — September 22, 2026
We're heading inside Horseshoe Indianapolis on a cool, cloudy Tuesday — 67°F and overcast, the kind of fall afternoon that keeps the dirt honest and the turf playing fair. Nine races are on the board today, mixing claiming events with maiden special weights and a quick-fire 330-yard quarter-horse sprint to close things out.
It's a diverse card with something for everyone. You've got sprint action, two-turn tests on dirt, and a pair of five-furlong turf dashes that should draw some interesting pace scenarios. The weather isn't raising any red flags — conditions look stable, so we're not expecting the surface to play dramatically different from what you see at post time.
Three races are unlocked and free for all TrackWiz readers today, with our top analysis on Mitch, Aizhurek, and Loveitorleaveit ready to go. The remaining six races are available to subscribers as part of the full-card premium breakdown.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt
A clear class standout tops this 1 1/16-mile claiming opener, but there's enough pace and intrigue in the second and third slots to make the exotics interesting.
Mitch is the most dominant number in this field by a wide margin — a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 dwarfs everything else on the board, and his 28% career win rate is the kind of number that gets handicappers' attention in a claiming field. At 7/5 on the morning line, he's a deserving favorite. Emmanuel Esquivel has the call and the horse's average speed figure of 55 gives him a measurable edge at this distance on dirt. Barring a pace meltdown or a troubled trip, this is his race to lose.
Rapid Justice gets the place tab at 3/1, and while his 11% career win rate isn't flashy, his TrackWiz rating of 71.73 is a solid second-best in the race. Alberto Burgos is a capable pilot, and at 3/1 he represents real value if you're building exactas around the heavy favorite. He matches Mitch in average speed at 53, making him a logical stalker type who could inherit the place if the pace heats up.
Toy'stroubledhero is the show pick at 8/1 morning line, offering some genuine value for tri bettors. A rating of 64.79 under trainer Randy L. Klopp slots him in behind the top two on TrackWiz's model, and a 12% career win rate suggests he's competitive at this level. Fernando De La Cruz has the mount — if the pace scenario sets up for a late-running type, there's a live longshot case here too.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt with an interesting three-way battle at the top — this is a close form race where trainer pedigree could be the tiebreaker.
Aizhurek draws the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 58.67 and comes in with the best average speed figure in the race at 55. The Brad H. Cox connection is worth underlining — Cox is one of the sharpest trainers in the country with maiden entries and his horses are live on debut or off a short layoff. Fernando De La Cruz picks up the mount, and at 9/5, the market agrees this is a horse to beat. In a wide-open maiden claimer, a Cox-trained horse carrying a real speed edge is exactly what you want on top.
Blessed Azteca sits just a hair behind on the ratings at 58.33, and at 2/1 morning line she's nearly co-favored with our top pick. Trainer Jose M. Camejo puts her out with Santiago Gonzalez in the irons, and a matching average speed figure of 53 keeps her within striking range at the sprint distance. If Aizhurek doesn't fire her best, Blessed Azteca looks like the most natural beneficiary.
Cajun King draws in at 4/1 with a solid 55.00 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field — and Mitchell Murrill is a strong get for trainer Aaron M. West. No published average speed is available, suggesting this may be a first-out runner, which in maiden company can be an asset — fresh horses are harder to read and sometimes show up big. At 4/1 he's good show value and worth including in your exotics.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Trainer Antonio Duran has two horses entered in this one-mile claiming affair, creating an interesting stable dynamic — but a non-Duran runner leads our model and figures to get overlooked at the windows.
Loveitorleaveit carries the top TrackWiz rating in the race at 79.45 and brings a 16% career win rate — the best in the field — under trainer Antonio Duran, who also saddles Miss Candy Pop. The pace scenario here is worth noting: with an average speed figure of 54 matching the field's best, Loveitorleaveit figures to press or sit just off the leaders and have enough left for the stretch run at a mile. Rodney A. Prescott takes the mount and this horse at 7/2 looks undervalued against the morning-line favorite.
Staymistyforme is a legitimate value target in the place slot at 6/1. She grades out at 77.06 on TrackWiz's model — just a tick below the win pick — and her 14% career win rate shows she's competitive at this level. Fernando De La Cruz picks her up for trainer Tim Eggleston, and an average speed figure of 54 ties her with the top horses in the field. At those odds, she's an excellent exacta and quinella play.
Lotta Latte is the most interesting value angle in this race at 12/1. Her TrackWiz rating of 73.96 is actually the second-best number in the field, yet the morning line pegs her as a big longshot — that's a meaningful disconnect. Trainer Raymond J. Paquette III gives her Orlando Mojica to ride, and a 54 average speed figure is right in the mix. A 3% career win rate might explain the skepticism, but if she's ever going to break through, this could be the spot.
Our three free plays today span the first half of the card and cover a solid range of race types. Mitch opens things up in Race 1 — a 1 1/16-mile claiming dirt route — carrying our highest free-race rating at 89.42 and sitting at 7/5 on the morning line, a price that suggests the market already likes what we like. In Race 2, Aizhurek draws our attention in a maiden claiming sprint, and while the 58.67 rating reflects a wide-open field, there's a pace angle worth digging into. Loveitorleaveit rounds out the free trio in Race 3 at a juicy 7/2 morning line — that's the kind of price that can turn a solid opinion into real value.
On a track playing consistent under cloudy skies, we lean toward horses that can secure a comfortable position early in the dirt routes. Keep an eye on how the first couple of races play out up front — early pace patterns here can tell you a lot about how the rest of the day's dirt card will unfold.
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Bottom line: Mitch is our marquee free play of the day, Loveitorleaveit offers the best value among the free picks at 7/2, and Roses After Midnight is the premium closer worth building your late Pick 3 around. It's a full, workable card at Horseshoe Indianapolis and there are angles in nearly every race. Grab the complete breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all nine races — by subscribing at /pricing. Good luck out there today.