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Horseshoe Indianapolis Picks & Predictions — September 22, 2026

September 22, 20269 racesAll Horseshoe Indianapolis picks

This card ran on September 22, 2026.

Best bets at Horseshoe Indianapolis, September 22, 2026

Race 12MitchML 7/52:10 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Horseshoe Indianapolis: our top pick won 21 of 103 races (20%) and finished in the money in 59.

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We're heading inside Horseshoe Indianapolis on a cool, cloudy Tuesday — 67°F and overcast, the kind of fall afternoon that keeps the dirt honest and the turf playing fair. Nine races are on the board today, mixing claiming events with maiden special weights and a quick-fire 330-yard quarter-horse sprint to close things out.

It's a diverse card with something for everyone. You've got sprint action, two-turn tests on dirt, and a pair of five-furlong turf dashes that should draw some interesting pace scenarios. The weather isn't raising any red flags — conditions look stable, so we're not expecting the surface to play dramatically different from what you see at post time.

Three races are unlocked and free for all TrackWiz readers today, with our top analysis on Mitch, Aizhurek, and Loveitorleaveit ready to go. The remaining six races are available to subscribers as part of the full-card premium breakdown.

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Race 1

2:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A clear class standout tops this 1 1/16-mile claiming opener, but there's enough pace and intrigue in the second and third slots to make the exotics interesting.

win2MitchML 7/5

Mitch is the most dominant number in this field by a wide margin — a TrackWiz rating of 89.42 dwarfs everything else on the board, and his 28% career win rate is the kind of number that gets handicappers' attention in a claiming field. At 7/5 on the morning line, he's a deserving favorite. Emmanuel Esquivel has the call and the horse's average speed figure of 55 gives him a measurable edge at this distance on dirt. Barring a pace meltdown or a troubled trip, this is his race to lose.

place1Rapid JusticeML 3/1

Rapid Justice gets the place tab at 3/1, and while his 11% career win rate isn't flashy, his TrackWiz rating of 71.73 is a solid second-best in the race. Alberto Burgos is a capable pilot, and at 3/1 he represents real value if you're building exactas around the heavy favorite. He matches Mitch in average speed at 53, making him a logical stalker type who could inherit the place if the pace heats up.

show3Toy'stroubledheroML 8/1

Toy'stroubledhero is the show pick at 8/1 morning line, offering some genuine value for tri bettors. A rating of 64.79 under trainer Randy L. Klopp slots him in behind the top two on TrackWiz's model, and a 12% career win rate suggests he's competitive at this level. Fernando De La Cruz has the mount — if the pace scenario sets up for a late-running type, there's a live longshot case here too.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

2:41 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt with an interesting three-way battle at the top — this is a close form race where trainer pedigree could be the tiebreaker.

win6AizhurekML 9/5

Aizhurek draws the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 58.67 and comes in with the best average speed figure in the race at 55. The Brad H. Cox connection is worth underlining — Cox is one of the sharpest trainers in the country with maiden entries and his horses are live on debut or off a short layoff. Fernando De La Cruz picks up the mount, and at 9/5, the market agrees this is a horse to beat. In a wide-open maiden claimer, a Cox-trained horse carrying a real speed edge is exactly what you want on top.

place2Blessed AztecaML 2/1

Blessed Azteca sits just a hair behind on the ratings at 58.33, and at 2/1 morning line she's nearly co-favored with our top pick. Trainer Jose M. Camejo puts her out with Santiago Gonzalez in the irons, and a matching average speed figure of 53 keeps her within striking range at the sprint distance. If Aizhurek doesn't fire her best, Blessed Azteca looks like the most natural beneficiary.

show4Cajun KingML 4/1

Cajun King draws in at 4/1 with a solid 55.00 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field — and Mitchell Murrill is a strong get for trainer Aaron M. West. No published average speed is available, suggesting this may be a first-out runner, which in maiden company can be an asset — fresh horses are harder to read and sometimes show up big. At 4/1 he's good show value and worth including in your exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free plays today span the first half of the card and cover a solid range of race types. Mitch opens things up in Race 1 — a 1 1/16-mile claiming dirt route — carrying our highest free-race rating at 89.42 and sitting at 7/5 on the morning line, a price that suggests the market already likes what we like. In Race 2, Aizhurek draws our attention in a maiden claiming sprint, and while the 58.67 rating reflects a wide-open field, there's a pace angle worth digging into. Loveitorleaveit rounds out the free trio in Race 3 at a juicy 7/2 morning line — that's the kind of price that can turn a solid opinion into real value.

On a track playing consistent under cloudy skies, we lean toward horses that can secure a comfortable position early in the dirt routes. Keep an eye on how the first couple of races play out up front — early pace patterns here can tell you a lot about how the rest of the day's dirt card will unfold.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

3:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Trainer Antonio Duran has two horses entered in this one-mile claiming affair, creating an interesting stable dynamic — but a non-Duran runner leads our model and figures to get overlooked at the windows.

win3LoveitorleaveitML 7/2

Loveitorleaveit carries the top TrackWiz rating in the race at 79.45 and brings a 16% career win rate — the best in the field — under trainer Antonio Duran, who also saddles Miss Candy Pop. The pace scenario here is worth noting: with an average speed figure of 54 matching the field's best, Loveitorleaveit figures to press or sit just off the leaders and have enough left for the stretch run at a mile. Rodney A. Prescott takes the mount and this horse at 7/2 looks undervalued against the morning-line favorite.

place5StaymistyformeML 6/1

Staymistyforme is a legitimate value target in the place slot at 6/1. She grades out at 77.06 on TrackWiz's model — just a tick below the win pick — and her 14% career win rate shows she's competitive at this level. Fernando De La Cruz picks her up for trainer Tim Eggleston, and an average speed figure of 54 ties her with the top horses in the field. At those odds, she's an excellent exacta and quinella play.

show2Lotta LatteML 12/1

Lotta Latte is the most interesting value angle in this race at 12/1. Her TrackWiz rating of 73.96 is actually the second-best number in the field, yet the morning line pegs her as a big longshot — that's a meaningful disconnect. Trainer Raymond J. Paquette III gives her Orlando Mojica to ride, and a 54 average speed figure is right in the mix. A 3% career win rate might explain the skepticism, but if she's ever going to break through, this could be the spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

3:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint that's trickier than it looks — the morning-line favorite isn't our top-rated horse, and a longer-priced runner with a gaudy TrackWiz number could be the best bet of the early card.

win7Cause Ima BossML 7/2

Cause Ima Boss is the standout on TrackWiz's model with a rating of 86.35 — a full 28 points clear of the morning-line favorite — and he comes in at 7/2, which looks like a genuine value overlay. Trainer Guber Gorostieta puts him out with Alex Achard aboard, and an average speed figure of 55 matches the field's best. All first-time starters carry uncertainty, but when the numbers scream this loud at a price, you pay attention.

place1AltimeterML 2/1

Altimeter is the 2/1 morning-line choice and comes from the barn of Brad H. Cox, whose maiden runners demand respect — the trainer's national win percentage with first-time starters is consistently strong. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. has the mount, and a 55 average speed figure ties the top horses in this sprint. At a rating of 58.33, he's well short of our win pick on the model, but Cox's pedigree with debut runners makes him a legitimate place contender.

show5Run David RunML 15/1

Run David Run is the most interesting show play on the ticket at 15/1 morning line. His TrackWiz rating of 53.31 is third-best in the field — ahead of the 5/2 second choice — and his 55 average speed figure gives him legitimate competitive credentials in this sprint. Fernando De La Cruz picks him up for trainer Michelle L. Elliott, and at those odds he's an excellent tri filler if you believe the model over the morning line.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

4:14 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

The maiden special weight turf opener for fillies features a Brad Cox runner that looks like the class of the field — and the second choice on our board is a genuine overlay at 8/1.

win6Amani's MusicML 2/1

Amani's Music is the clear top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — a massive 22-point margin over the next horse on our board. Fernando De La Cruz rides for Brad H. Cox, a combination that should have the attention of every serious bettor in the house. Her average speed figure of 57 is the best in the field, and at 2/1 on the morning line, she's deserving of the chalk despite being unraced. Cox's record with first-time turf starters is the stuff of legend — this is a horses-to-win spot.

place5No Self ControlML 8/1

No Self Control is the hidden gem of this race at 8/1 morning line. A TrackWiz rating of 66.44 makes her the clear second-best horse on our model, and her average speed figure of 57 ties the top pick — that's not a coincidence, that's a live contender. Trainer Miguel Angel Silva puts her out with Micah Meeks aboard, and if the public is too fixated on the Cox horse, No Self Control could return a juicy place price. Circle this one for your exotics.

show4Ginger AleML 4/1

Ginger Ale rates third on our model at 51.12 and is morning-lined at 4/1 by a market that seems to agree she's a factor. Joseph C. Bealmear rides for Wayne L. Mackey on the turf, and her average speed figure of 55 is competitive in this sprint. She's not as flashy as the top two in our rankings, but at a fair price she rounds out a tri nicely — and in a maiden field on the grass, form can compress quickly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

4:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This maiden special weight sprint on the dirt is headlined by a strong top pick from the Antonio Duran barn, while the morning-line co-favorite draws our second spot and a wide-open show slot makes the trifecta attractive.

win5Lil GitanaML 7/2

Lil Gitana posts a standout TrackWiz rating of 86.35 in a field where the second-best number is 57.5 — that's a commanding advantage by any measure. Trainer Antonio Duran sends her out with Santo Sanjur, a combo worth watching throughout the card. Her 53 average speed figure in a maiden sprint on the dirt gives her a legitimate foundation, and at 7/2 on the morning line she's not getting away cheap — but the ratings gap justifies making her the backbone of your ticket.

place1Five StarML 5/2

Five Star is the 5/2 morning-line choice and earns the second spot in our ratings at 57.5. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. rides for Tim Eggleston, a pairing that's shown up on this card before. Without a published average speed figure she's a bit of a mystery on raw numbers, but the market clearly respects her enough to install her near the top of the board. She's the most logical exacta partner with Lil Gitana and makes sense in any multi-race wager.

show2I. C. U. AggieML 4/1

I.C.U. Aggie is the 4/1 third choice and grades out with a 55.00 rating on TrackWiz's model — solidly in the conversation for the show spot in a wide-open maiden field. Mitchell Murrill aboard for trainer Aaron M. West brings a sharp jockey-trainer combo to the table. Like Five Star, she has no published speed figure available, which adds some mystery but also some upside — first-time or lightly-raced horses in maiden company can improve dramatically off the layoff or debut.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

5:16 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A deep nine-horse maiden special weight turf sprint with compressed ratings across the board — this is a genuine puzzle race where value could come from almost anywhere and our top pick beats a morning-line favorite.

win3Polka Dot JerseyML 6/1

Polka Dot Jersey leads our TrackWiz ratings at 61.53 despite being morning-lined at 6/1 — that gap between model and market is exactly where value lives. Trainer Michael E. Lauer sends her out with Danny Sheehy, and her average speed figure of 56 is the best recorded number in this field. In a maiden turf sprint where several runners have no published speed figures at all, having an actual 56 on the board is a real edge. This is our best bet in the race.

place8ZarzuelaML 8/1

Zarzuela is an interesting play at 8/1, sitting second on our model with a 57.29 rating. Trainer Caio Caramori puts her out with Mitchell Murrill in the irons — Murrill is one of the sharper sticks on this card today. Her average speed figure of 53 is modest, but in a compressed maiden turf field with several unknowns, she's well-positioned at a price that could deliver real place value. Solid inclusion for tri and exacta players.

show2Newport LadyML 3/1

Newport Lady comes in third on our ratings at 56.67 and draws the 3/1 morning line — she's the market favorite in this race, which tells you something about the public's read versus our model's. Trainer Randy L. Klopp has her handled by Joseph D. Ramos, and the lack of a published speed figure keeps her somewhat opaque. That said, when the market makes you the favorite in a maiden turf sprint, there's usually a reason, and she's a logical show anchor for anyone who wants safety at modest odds.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 8

5:47 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of experienced horses line up in this turf starter optional claiming mile — the top three on our board are tightly clustered in the high 80s with a lightly-regarded second choice underneath, setting up a compelling exacta.

win1BoitanoML 3/1

Boitano is our top selection with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and a career win percentage of 34% — by far the strongest win rate in this twelve-horse field. Trainer Jose M. Camejo gives the mount to Joseph D. Ramos, and a 54 average speed figure is right in the mix for a one-mile turf affair. A 34% career win rate isn't a stat you see every day; it signals a horse who repeatedly fires his best when conditions are right. At 3/1 morning line, he's a deserving top choice and our best bet in Race 8.

place11Purdy Darn GoodML 2/1

Purdy Darn Good is the 2/1 morning-line second choice and rates just behind Boitano at 83.93 on our model. Emmanuel Esquivel rides for trainer Cipriano Contreras, and his 21% career win rate is second-best in this field. His 54 average speed figure matches the top choices, and the fact that the market has installed him at 2/1 while our model ranks him second makes him the perfect exacta partner — you're getting a juicy return on a horse that figures to hit the board.

show5ZachML 5/2

Zach rounds out the top three on our board with a rating of 82.74 and a 15% career win rate. Alberto Burgos picks him up for trainer John Haran, and while his 53 average speed figure is a tick below the leaders, it's well within range in a competitive one-mile turf field. At 5/2 morning line the market has him priced correctly as a factor horse, and he makes a strong show anchor or the third leg of any exacta boxing strategy today.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 9

6:15 PM EDT

Allowance · 330 yd · Dirt

A sprawling thirteen-horse allowance for quarter horses at 330 yards — it's a blink-and-you-miss-it sprint where our top pick carries a massive ratings edge and figures to be very short at post time.

win10Roses After MidnightML 3/2

Roses After Midnight is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 89.27 — a full 22-plus points ahead of the next horse on our board. Trainer Jessica A. Vazquez puts her out with Giovani Vazquez-Gomez, and her 16% career win rate is competitive in a thirteen-horse allowance field. She's morning-lined at 3/2 and the market has clearly done its homework. In a 330-yard dash where everything happens in a heartbeat, having the top-rated horse at a real speed advantage is the cleanest angle you'll find all night.

place12Maleficent DashML 6/1

Maleficent Dash is the most intriguing value play in the race at 6/1 morning line. Her TrackWiz rating of 66.66 is second-best in the field and her 20% career win rate is the highest among any horse below the top pick on our board — that's a horse who knows how to win. Trainer Cesar Esqueda gives the mount to Hugo Macias, and in a 330-yard sprint where fractions of a second separate the field, a horse with a 20% career win rate at 6/1 is exactly the kind of overlay you circle on your program.

show1Midnight Cowboy 123ML 5/2

Midnight Cowboy 123 is our show pick at 5/2, and while he's morning-lined below Roses After Midnight, his 55.58 TrackWiz rating and 11% career win rate make him a legitimate contender for the show spot in a wide field. Trainer Tim Eggleston sends him out with Rolando Del Rio Pina, and in a thirteen-horse sprint it's easy for a capable horse to get shuffled into the show position. He's a solid anchor for tri tickets, especially if the race sets up with some early traffic issues.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

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Bottom line: Mitch is our marquee free play of the day, Loveitorleaveit offers the best value among the free picks at 7/2, and Roses After Midnight is the premium closer worth building your late Pick 3 around. It's a full, workable card at Horseshoe Indianapolis and there are angles in nearly every race. Grab the complete breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and all nine races — by subscribing at /pricing. Good luck out there today.

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