Daily Picks

Hawthorne Picks & Predictions — May 24, 2026

Sunday, May 24, 20267 racesHawthorne

Happy Sunday from Hawthorne Race Course, where the sun is out, temps are sitting at a comfortable 75°F, and the dirt should be fast and true all afternoon. Seven races are on tap today, mixing claiming wars, maiden battles, and some intriguing turf action as the meet rolls on.

The card has a nice split personality — three dirt sprints and a route to kick things off, then the meet shifts to the turf for a stretch run that includes a Starter Allowance, an Allowance Optional Claiming, and a Maiden Special Weight. That turf sequence alone is worth planning your afternoon around, especially with conditions this ideal for grass racing.

TrackWiz has rated the full card and we've got strong opinions on all seven races. Three of them — Races 1 through 3 — are free for every reader. The back half of the card, where things really get interesting, is reserved for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A clear class standout tops this mile-and-seventy-yard dirt claimer, but the morning line suggests the public is already on to her — the real question is whether the second and third choices can get close enough to matter in the exotics.

win5Ballybay BeautyML 9/5

Ballybay Beauty owns the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.83 — a significant gap over the nearest rival — and pairs that with the best average speed figure in the field at 54. Trainer Brian Cook puts her at 9/5 on the morning line, which tells you the connections believe she's fit and ready. Jockey Olaf Hernandez gets the call and should have options from post 5 in a five-horse field. At nearly nine furlongs on dirt, horses that carry their form routing tend to separate from the pack late, and the numbers say Beauty is your best bet here.

place3CarmalietaML 5/2

Carmalieta (No. 3) comes in with a solid 71.78 TrackWiz rating and a 12% career win rate that matches Great Owl's but with a slightly lower speed average of 52. Trained by John Haran and ridden by E.T. Baird — a jockey who knows how to save ground at Hawthorne — she's priced at 5/2 and figures to sit a comfortable trip just off the pace. If Ballybay Beauty gets away clean, Carmalieta looks like the most logical foil for the exacta.

show1Great OwlML 3/1

Great Owl (No. 1) is the lone speed threat with a 3/1 morning line and a 12% career win rate to match Carmalieta's. Trainer Larry Rivelli keeps horses sharp at this level, and Jareth Loveberry aboard is one of the meet's more active riders. His average speed figure of 53 is respectable, and drawing the rail in a five-horse field gives him a clean look to set fractions without burning too much energy early.

Race 2

8:16 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers over five and a half furlongs are notoriously tricky, but this one shapes up as a two-horse speed battle with a significant wildcard sitting just off the pace — the morning line favorite may be overrated while the TrackWiz numbers tell a different story.

win2Lolita JML 5/2

Lolita J (No. 2) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 despite going postward at 5/2 — well behind Stylish Girl's 8/5 morning line — which immediately signals value. She posts a solid average speed figure of 53 in a maiden field where the difference between horses is razor thin. Trainer Elias Lopez puts Frank Reyes in the irons, a competent combination at this level. In maiden claimers, the horse that consistently hits its speed marks and gets a clean trip usually gets the job done, and Lolita J checks both boxes.

place3Tour De' PortML 9/2

Tour De' Port (No. 3) is a sneaky inclusion at 9/2 on the morning line with a 72.62 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field and a meaningful step above the morning-line favorite's 59.00. Trainer Maximino Quinonez saddles Alexander Bendezu, who's been active at this meet. An average speed of 52 is modest, but in a short five-and-a-half furlong sprint, tactical positioning off the pace can be more valuable than raw numbers.

show5Stylish GirlML 8/5

Stylish Girl (No. 5) is the public's choice at 8/5, trained by the reliable Larry Rivelli with E.T. Baird up — a barn-and-jock combo that regularly fires at Hawthorne. Her average speed figure of 55 is the best in the field on paper, which explains the morning-line love. She's worth keeping onside in show position and exotics even though our TrackWiz rating puts her third; speed figures don't lie, and a horse with the best raw speed in a maiden sprint is never one to toss entirely.

Race 3

8:46 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Six fillies and mares converge in this five-and-a-half furlong dirt claimer, and while the TrackWiz model loves the chalk, two live longshots with big career win percentages could steal the show if the pace gets hot early.

win3Dixie PennyML 5/2

Dixie Penny (No. 3) leads all comers with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate — respectable for this level — paired with a top average speed figure of 55. Alexander Bendezu takes the mount for trainer Armando Hernandez, and at 5/2 on the morning line, she's the rightful favorite in our book. In a six-horse field at a sprint distance, a horse with this combination of speed and form consistency usually doesn't get beat without a pace-related excuse.

place4LalyML 4/1

Laly (No. 4) brings a compelling profile at 4/1 — a 27% career win rate is one of the highest in this field, and her average speed figure of 55 matches Dixie Penny's best. Trainer Frank Kirby and jockey Javier Tavares team up with a horse that clearly knows how to win. At a mile-and-shorter trip in a sprint format, Laly's tactical experience could make her a serious threat for the exacta.

show2Mary MoonglowML 3/1

Mary Moonglow (No. 2) posts the field's highest career win rate among our top three selections at 20%, and her 3/1 morning line reflects that the public respects her. Trained by Dino DiZeo and handled by Frank Reyes, she averages a speed figure of 54 — right in the mix with the leaders. She's a strong show play and worth including underneath in exactas and trifectas for bettors looking for a small edge.

Our three free races cover the early dirt portion of the card, and there's a clear thread running through them: pace and position. On a fast Hawthorne dirt track under clear skies, TrackWiz analysis leans toward horses that can either control the tempo or sit just off a contested pace and pounce late. Ballybay Beauty (Race 1, morning line 9/5, TrackWiz rating 88.83) heads the free-race group as our top-rated horse on the entire card — she's going a route at 1 mile and 70 yards and projects as the class of that field. In Race 2, Lolita J (5/2 ML) stands out in a maiden claiming sprint, and Race 3 brings us Dixie Penny (also 5/2 ML) in another 5½-furlong dirt tilt — both earning identical 87.81 ratings from our model, which tells you those two races are genuinely competitive but our top selections have a clear edge on the numbers.

If you're building an early Pick 3 around Races 1-3, Ballybay Beauty looks like a strong single, while using multiple horses underneath in Races 2 and 3 makes sense given how evenly matched those fields grade out.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

9:18 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

The grass mile in Race 4 is a prime example of a race where the morning line and the TrackWiz model diverge sharply — the top-rated horse goes off at 6/1 while the morning-line favorite is rated nearly 10 points lower, setting up a potential overlay situation.

win8Grand IllusionML 6/1

Grand Illusion (No. 8) is our top selection at an 82.71 TrackWiz rating despite carrying a 6/1 morning line — that's a significant disconnect that savvy bettors should note. His 38% career win rate is the second-highest in the field and absolutely elite for a turf route at this level. Trainer Maximino Quinonez sends out Alexander Bendezu, who has been picking his spots well at this meet. When a horse with a 38% win rate goes postward at 6/1 in a starter allowance on turf, that's the definition of a value play.

place5Silver QuartersML 7/5

Silver Quarters (No. 5) is the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and owns a strong 73.84 TrackWiz rating paired with a 25% career win rate — both legitimate credentials. Trainer Larry Rivelli is one of the more reliable barns on the Hawthorne circuit, and Jareth Loveberry is a top-tier booking at this level. Even if Grand Illusion grabs the win, Silver Quarters' class profile and connections make her a near-lock to hit the board.

show7Verrazano FirstML 15/1

Verrazano First (No. 7) is a legitimate longshot angle at 15/1 on the morning line, but his numbers quietly make a case — a 57.90 TrackWiz rating and a 26% career win rate that jumps off the page at those odds. His average speed figure of 56 is the highest in the entire field, which on a turf mile could translate to a devastating late kick if the pace sets up favorably. Trainer Pat Clay — who also saddles Vitale — has options here, and Johanis Aranguren will have the luxury of stalking from just off the pace.

Race 5

9:48 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

The seven-and-a-half furlong turf allowance optional claimer looks like a three-horse race on paper, but the TrackWiz model flips the morning-line script — the public's second choice gets our top rating, and there's genuine overlay potential here for the informed bettor.

win3R KatiebugML 6/1

R Katiebug (No. 3) tops our TrackWiz model at 82.71 despite going off at 6/1 on the morning line — one of the better overlays on today's Hawthorne card. She posts a 26% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 for trainer Michele Boyce, who also runs Journey in this race. Alexander Bendezu takes the mount, and when a trainer enters two horses and one goes overlooked at 6/1, it's often worth paying attention to which one the model prefers — today that's R Katiebug.

place5Sine Qua NonML 5/2

Sine Qua Non (No. 5) is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 and backs that billing with a 79.87 TrackWiz rating. Her average speed figure of 57 is the best in the entire field by a wide margin — a meaningful advantage over seven-and-a-half furlongs on turf where late pace tends to get rewarded. Trainer James DiVito has Olaf Hernandez up, and a horse that runs this kind of speed number while carrying a 33% career win rate is a legitimate contender in any direction.

show4JourneyML 4/1

Journey (No. 4) rounds out the TrackWiz top three with a 72.39 rating and the exact same 33% career win rate as Sine Qua Non — two horses from trainer Michele Boyce who both know how to win. Jareth Loveberry is an excellent booking, and an average speed figure of 55 keeps her competitive at this distance on turf. Journey is the safer show play and a sensible underneath option in the trifecta.

Race 6

10:21 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A contentious six-furlong dirt claimer with two horses rated above 85 and a morning-line even-money shot who our model actually rates second — the setup for a genuine upset is in place, and bettors willing to go against the chalk could be rewarded.

win2Bourbon Street BoyML 3/1

Bourbon Street Boy (No. 2) leads all comers with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating while sitting at a generous 3/1 on the morning line — better odds than the even-money Chi Town Prince who our model rates slightly lower. Trainer Joel Campbell saddles Alexander Bendezu, a sharp jock-trainer combo that's been active on the Hawthorne circuit. His average speed figure of 54 matches several rivals, but in a sprint, it's overall model consistency that separates horses — and Bourbon Street Boy has it.

place4Chi Town PrinceML EVN

Chi Town Prince (No. 4) is the public's favorite at even money, and you can see why — an 85.26 TrackWiz rating is legitimate, and trainer Larry Rivelli with Jareth Loveberry up is one of the meet's top barn-jock combinations. His 16% career win rate is solid at this class level, and he'll likely set or press the pace from the middle of the pack. If Bourbon Street Boy stumbles out of the gate or gets boxed in traffic, Chi Town Prince is ready to pounce.

show3Regained PowerML 7/2

Regained Power (No. 3) rates third in our model at 70.25 and draws a 7/2 morning line that makes him a reasonable show play in a competitive field. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez sends out Julio Felix, and a 54 average speed figure keeps Regained Power in pace conversation throughout the six furlongs. With the top two horses likely to get into a speed duel, a horse with a stalker profile like Regained Power can benefit from a fast early tempo — and at 7/2, the return justifies the inclusion.

Race 7

10:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Turf

An intriguing maiden special weight on turf with a full field of first-time-eligible runners and experienced maidens — the top TrackWiz rating belongs to the second-highest morning-line choice, while a 2/1 shot and a 5/2 shot figure to be the public's primary targets.

win7This Beau KnowsML 9/5

This Beau Knows (No. 7) earns the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.83 — by a comfortable margin — and draws a 9/5 morning line that makes her the second choice in the wagering, which represents a touch of value given how dominant the model score is. Trainer Chris M. Block runs two horses in this race, and Luis Colon takes the call on This Beau Knows at post 7 — a manageable outside draw on a one-mile turf course where stalking trips are readily available. An average speed figure of 53 keeps her honest, and on a turf maiden that can come down to who runs the most consistent fractions, that's a solid baseline.

place3Hurricane ExpressML 2/1

Hurricane Express (No. 3) comes in as the public's second choice at 2/1 with a 73.17 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — for trainer Cheryl Winebaugh with E.T. Baird aboard. An average speed figure of 53 matches several rivals, but in maiden special weight grass races, breeding and raw talent often trump past performance data, and the connections clearly believe in this horse at 2/1. Baird has been a steady presence at Hawthorne, and inside post 3 on the turf could give Hurricane Express a ground-saving trip around the far turn.

show8Super McKinzieML 5/2

Super McKinzie (No. 8) is listed at 5/2 and posts a 57.50 TrackWiz rating — a reasonable floor for a maiden turf starter. Trainer Coty Rosin gives the mount to Frank Reyes, who also rides Dyno War in this race, which means Reyes will have to make a gate call — pay attention to which mount he takes as a last-minute indicator of barn confidence. An average speed figure of 53 keeps Super McKinzie competitive, and at 5/2 with solid credentials, he's a legitimate show hedge in a wide-open maiden field.

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Bottom line: Hawthorne is serving up a clean, well-structured Sunday card under perfect conditions. Ballybay Beauty is the play of the free races, and the turf sequence in the back half — headlined by value angles on Grand Illusion and R Katiebug — gives serious bettors plenty to work with. Full card analysis, pace breakdowns, and exotic tickets are waiting for subscribers. Not a member yet? Check out our plans at /pricing and get in on the action before first post.

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