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Fort Erie Picks & Predictions — May 31, 2026

Sunday, May 31, 20268 racesFort Erie

Fort Erie is open for business on a beautiful Sunday, with clear skies and a comfortable 66°F making for ideal racing conditions. Eight races are on the slate today, all on the dirt, and the weather should keep the track playing fast and true throughout the afternoon.

It's a card that mixes maiden claimers and straight claimers in the early going before stepping up to a pair of Maiden Stakes and a feature Allowance in the back half — meaning the quality ratchets up as the day goes on. Whether you're here to cash a quick pick or you're building multi-race exotics, there's plenty to work with.

TrackWiz has full analysis locked and loaded for all eight races. Three races are free for every reader, and our premium breakdown covers the full card for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A clear TrackWiz rating advantage points to one standout in this 5.5-furlong dirt claimer, but the morning line favorite and the lukewarm chalk are close enough in raw figures to keep the exacta interesting.

win4Get Out the VoteML 5/2

Get Out the Vote draws our top rating at 87.81 — a full 12 points clear of the next competitor — and posts the field's best average speed figure at 54. Steve Jadoo gets the call for trainer John Simms, a combo worth noting in a short sprint. At 5/2 on the morning line, you're not getting a windfall price, but the separation in the TrackWiz model is legitimate and hard to ignore over 5.5 furlongs on dirt.

place3Someday GirlML 7/2

Someday Girl sits second in the ratings at 75.77 and Luis Contreras, one of the sharper sticks at Fort Erie, pilots her from the three hole. A 9% career win rate isn't flashy, but in a five-horse field where she figures to be in the mix on pace, hitting the board at 7/2 is a realistic outcome — good enough to anchor the place slot in exacta and trifecta combos.

show5Sultry SophieML 9/5

Sultry Sophie is the morning line favorite at 9/5, which creates a slight disconnect with her third-place rating of 74.27. She's got the backing of the oddsmakers, but our numbers suggest she's more a solid place-show type than a clear winner. At short odds she's tough to play to win, but she rounds out the trifecta nicely as a horse you simply can't leave out of your tickets.

Race 2

4:48 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

Back to Reality enters as both the morning line favorite and the TrackWiz top-rated horse, but a 19% career win rate and a legitimate pace threat from Forest Flash make this worth more than a rubber-stamp single.

win5Back to RealityML 8/5

Back to Reality is the clear standout here — a 89.12 TrackWiz rating leads the field by nearly 20 points, and a 19% career win rate is the best mark in the race. Sofia Vives rides for trainer Anthony Adamo and the horse's average speed figure of 55 ties for the field's top mark. At 8/5 she's deservedly short, but the margin of superiority in the model justifies making her your win anchor.

place1Forest FlashML 5/2

Forest Flash brings genuine pace credentials to this five-furlong sprint — a 15% career win rate and a 69.42 rating give him a legitimate profile from the rail. Ismael Eluid Mosqueira takes the mount for Jeff Voyce, and at 5/2 on the morning line there's actual value here if Forest Flash can clear to the front early and make the favorite work to catch him.

show4Star ScholarML 3/1

Star Scholar slots in at third in the TrackWiz ratings with a 64.05, and Steve Jadoo — who is keeping busy on this card — rides for trainer John Simms. A 55 average speed figure matches the top horses and at 3/1 morning line odds he offers solid show value and exotic inclusion as a reliable third wheel behind the top two.

Race 3

5:16 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A maiden claimer full of winless horses creates a wide-open puzzle, but two Steven Cathcart trainees dominate the TrackWiz model and could give his barn a 1-2 finish.

win2MaritudeML 5/2

Maritude tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — tied for the highest mark on today's entire card — and heads into this maiden claimer off the Steven Cathcart barn, which also saddles Strike a Note. Prayven Badrie gets the mount and the 5/2 morning line reflects legitimate public respect. The average speed figure of 53 matches Strike a Note's, but the edge in our overall model is clear enough to make Maritude the top selection.

place1Strike a NoteML 2/1

Strike a Note is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and rates a strong second at 79.75 for the same Steven Cathcart barn. Alexis Sanchez rides, giving this a sharp jockey-trainer pairing to go with a 53 average speed figure. With two Cathcart runners in the field, a barn exacta is genuinely in play — Strike a Note has the public's backing and our model confirms the talent is there.

show3CharlettaML 4/1

Charletta comes in third on the TrackWiz ratings at 77.87 with Edgar Zenteno up for trainer Erin H. Rickman. Posted at 4/1 morning line, she represents solid exotic value in a field where the top three rated horses are separated by only 10 points. For trifecta bettors, she's too close in the ratings to the top two to leave off your tickets.

The early free races set a clear tone: we're looking at a short-side dirt sprint card where early speed is going to matter. On a firm, fast-playing dirt surface like we expect today, horses that can establish position out of the gate have a real edge in these 5-furlong and 5½-furlong trips. That plays right into our top free picks — Get Out the Vote in Race 1 (morning line 5/2, TrackWiz rating 87.81) and Back to Reality in Race 2 (8/5 ML, rating 89.12) both profile as horses who can control or sit just off a manageable pace.

Race 3 brings the maiden claimers, and Maritude at 5/2 on the morning line (rating 87.81) stands out in what figures to be a wide-open field. In maiden claiming sprints, pace shape and recent workouts often tell the story more than class — and our analysis likes what we see here.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

5:44 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong dirt claimer hides a legitimate value play — our top-rated horse is an 8/1 shot on the morning line, while the morning line choice doesn't crack the top three in the TrackWiz model.

win3Paperback HeroML 8/1

Paperback Hero leads our ratings at 79.79 despite being posted at 8/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of gap between public and model opinion that gets our attention. Steve Jadoo rides for trainer Roy George Agostino, and a 20% career win rate is among the best in this field. A 55 average speed figure ties for the field's top mark, and at those odds the value case is genuine — this is our best bet of the race.

place7Where Is EssaML 3/1

Where Is Essa rates almost identically to Paperback Hero at 79.20 and brings the field's best average speed figure at 56. Alexis Sanchez pilots for Sharon Ceccato, and a solid 16% career win rate speaks to a horse that knows how to run into the money. At 3/1 morning line she's much more fairly priced than our win pick, making the exacta combination of these two a compelling play.

show6Heat MerchantML 4/1

Heat Merchant slots in as our show selection at a 58.25 rating for trainer Paula Loescher with Leo Salles aboard. A 13% career win rate is workmanlike, and the 54 average speed figure puts him in the pace mix. At 4/1 he gives trifecta players a reasonable third option at a price that beats out the lower-rated horses who have shorter odds.

Race 5

6:12 PM EDT

Maiden Stakes · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden stakes with seven winless horses and no dominant standout — the TrackWiz ratings are tightly clustered, which makes pace scenario and connections the tiebreakers.

win2NakedintheforestML 5/2

Nakedintheforest tops this competitive maiden stakes field with a 65.54 TrackWiz rating and the field's best average speed figure at 55. Steve Jadoo rides for trainer Roy George Agostino — a pairing that's active on today's card — and a 5/2 morning line suggests the market agrees. In a tight field where no horse has won before, that extra length of speed figure can be the difference over five furlongs.

place3Captain ClutchML 2/1

Captain Clutch is the morning line favorite at 2/1 for trainer Anthony Adamo with Sofia Vives in the irons. A 58.33 TrackWiz rating and a 54 average speed figure give him the tools to factor, and Adamo's barn has been represented well today with Garofoli in Race 7. The favorite role in a maiden stakes can be a dangerous spot, but the connections here are sharp enough to keep him on your place tickets.

show4SeekingtitlereadyML 4/1

Seekingtitleready carries a 55.00 TrackWiz rating for trainer Michaela Neubauer with Melanie Pinto up, posted at 4/1. The average speed figure of 53 matches the field's middle tier, and in a wide-open maiden race that price makes her an attractive third wheel for trifecta players. Sometimes the honest middle-of-the-field type at fair odds is exactly what you need for show coverage.

Race 6

6:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Bingo's Grind owns a commanding TrackWiz rating advantage in this 6.5-furlong dirt claimer, but two credentialed horses lurk at shorter prices — the trifecta could pay well if the chalk gets beaten to the line.

win4Bingo's GrindML 3/1

Bingo's Grind is the clear top selection with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — a 13-point cushion over second-place Cantucci. Emile Ramsammy rides for Michael V. Cohen, and a 20% career win rate underscores this horse's ability to close the deal. At 3/1 on the morning line, Bingo's Grind offers a fair price for a horse this dominant in the model over 6.5 furlongs.

place2CantucciML 5/2

Cantucci rates a solid second at 74.16 with Brian A. Cheyne aboard for trainer Julie Mathes. A 54 average speed figure is the best in the field, and a 13% career win rate at 5/2 morning line odds makes the place ticket very playable. The combination of top speed figure and second-best overall rating suggests this horse will be competitive deep into the stretch.

show3Bill NeedleML 5/1

Bill Needle checks in with a 53.32 TrackWiz rating for trainer Joseph Humber, with Edgar Zenteno steering from post three. At 5/1 morning line odds, there's real show value here — the rating puts him in the mix, and for trifecta players looking to beat short-priced horses, pairing him with the top two gives you a ticket with some upside.

Race 7

7:08 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Garofoli enters as the heavy morning line favorite and our top-rated horse, but Shakoo Makoo's eye-catching 33% career win rate makes this more than a one-horse race — pace figures to be honest early.

win3GarofoliML 7/5

Garofoli tops the TrackWiz model at 89.42 — the highest rating on today's entire Fort Erie card — and carries a 25% career win rate into this allowance sprint. Sofia Vives, who has multiple live mounts on the card today, rides for Anthony Adamo. At 7/5 the price is short, but when your model's peak score aligns with a proven winning profile, you play accordingly.

place5Shakoo MakooML 2/1

Shakoo Makoo is the most compelling place play on the card — a 33% career win rate is elite for any level, and a 78.46 TrackWiz rating makes him a legitimate threat to Garofoli. Kirk Johnson takes the mount for trainer Anthony J. Alderson, and at 2/1 morning line he won't pay a fortune to place, but he's the horse most likely to run Garofoli down if the favorite has any issues. Don't leave him off your exactas.

show1Pine KnollML 4/1

Pine Knoll profiles as a pace factor from the rail with a 58.47 TrackWiz rating for trainer Sharon Ceccato with Melanie Pinto riding. A 13% career win rate is modest, but in a five-horse allowance field, the rail draw can be advantageous over 5.5 furlongs. At 4/1 morning line, Pine Knoll is the logical show inclusion for trifecta players who want some protection behind the top two.

Race 8

7:36 PM EDT

Maiden Stakes · 5 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse maiden stakes with a genuine longshot angle at the top of our model — the 8/1 morning line on our win pick represents real value in a wide-open sprint where no horse has ever hit the winner's circle.

win3HeavylikeachevyML 8/1

Heavylikeachevy tops our ratings at 79.79 for trainer Julie Mathes with Helen Marie Vanek in the irons, and at 8/1 on the morning line this is the biggest pricing gap between our model and the public on today's card. A 53 average speed figure is respectable, and the rating edges out a deep field of first-time and winless runners. In maiden stakes, value plays like this — where our model and the tote disagree sharply — are exactly the spots TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place7Four Beach FriendsML 9/2

Four Beach Friends rates second in the field at 75.67 with Sofia Vives aboard for Anthony Adamo — a trainer-jockey combo that has been very active and effective throughout today's program. The 55 average speed figure is the best in this race, which matters over five furlongs on dirt where early pace can be decisive. At 9/2 morning line, Four Beach Friends offers genuine place value and is a must-include in exotic wagering.

show1Spiritual ManML 5/1

Spiritual Man checks in third on the model at 74.57 for trainer Kevin Buttigieg, with Luis Contreras — Fort Erie's top rider — taking the mount from post one. A 53 average speed figure is competitive, and having Contreras at 5/1 in a maiden sprint is always worth respecting. The rail draw adds a tactical element, and for trifecta bettors, Spiritual Man at that price rounds out the ticket nicely.

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Fort Erie has a clean, fast card on tap under sunny skies today. Get Out the Vote, Back to Reality, and Maritude are our free best bets to get you started — and Garofoli in the Race 7 Allowance is the marquee play of the afternoon. For the full card, pace angles, exotic breakdowns, and every edge we can find across all eight races, TrackWiz premium has you covered. Good luck out there.

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