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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — October 19, 2026

October 19, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

It's a beautiful Monday at Finger Lakes — clear skies, 64°F, and a firm dirt surface that should play true all afternoon. Eight races are on the board, and the conditions are about as clean as you'll get this deep into the fall meet. No weather excuses today; the horses that perform are simply the best horses.

The card runs the full spectrum — a pair of Maiden Special Weights for young horses making early impressions, two straight claiming affairs, a Maiden Claiming route, and three allowance-level tests including a rare Allowance Optional Claiming stretch out at a mile and 70 yards. There's something here for every style of bettor, from win-and-done to multi-race sequence builders.

TrackWiz has full analysis locked in for all eight races. Three are open to everyone, and five are reserved for subscribers. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A clear TrackWiz rating advantage sits with Rockinmoney in this 5½-furlong allowance opener, but three horses cluster closely enough in the 70s to keep the exotics honest.

win4RockinmoneyML 2/1

Rockinmoney owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field by a comfortable margin — an 88.54 against a field where the next-best sits at 71.67. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro also saddles Beev's Blessing here, giving him two bites at the apple, and the dual-entry barn usually fires its best with its best-rated horse. Jockey Keiber J. Coa inherits a horse with a solid average speed figure of 54, and at 2/1 on the morning line, Rockinmoney projects as a deserving favorite in a race that sets up for a presser or front-runner over the short 5½-furlong trip.

place3Trafalgar's HeroML 5/2

Trafalgar's Hero carries the second-highest rating at 71.67 and the best average speed figure in the field at 55, a meaningful edge when you're splitting hairs at this level. Trainer Jon G. Arnett sends him out at 5/2, just off the top of the morning line, suggesting confidence. Andre Shivnarine Worrie gets the call in the irons, and if Rockinmoney draws out any heat up front, Trafalgar's Hero could be hitting the wire with plenty left.

show1Cast a CoinML 4/1

Cast a Coin is third in the TrackWiz ratings at 70.95, barely a whisker behind Trafalgar's Hero, and comes in at 4/1 on the morning line — offering a touch of value for exotics. Trainer Jacqueline Falk doubles up in this race with Savage State, but her resources figure to be concentrated on the better-rated Cast a Coin. Steven Fret takes the mount, and at this short sprint distance, a horse with a decent average speed figure who breaks cleanly can hold the show spot without much drama.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claimer going a flat mile on the dirt, where every horse is still looking for that elusive first win — making the TrackWiz ratings gap between Broken Record and the rest the clearest guide we have.

win1Broken RecordML 3/1

Broken Record stands out with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — a full 15+ points clear of the second-best horse in this maiden claiming field, which is a substantial edge when the competition is this green. Trainer Paul W. Barrow puts Oscar Gomez up, and the morning line of 3/1 is reasonable for a horse showing this kind of rating separation. At a mile on the dirt, stamina questions loom for any maiden, but Broken Record's profile gives him the best credentials to graduate today.

place4Bargain PurchaseML 2/1

Bargain Purchase holds the second-highest rating in the field at 71.78 and goes postward at 2/1 — actually the morning-line favorite despite being our place selection. Trainer Dana Saul sends him out with Jose Baez aboard, and the mile distance could suit a horse that needs time to find his stride. If Broken Record handles the front-running duties, Bargain Purchase looks like a solid consolation play for exacta and place tickets.

show6Speightful SamML 5/1

Speightful Sam is the lone horse in this field posting a 53 average speed figure, giving him a slight edge in raw pace numbers over a group that's mostly clustered at 52 or lower. M. Anthony Ferraro has two horses in this race and Keiber J. Coa gets the mount on Sam — that's a strong jockey booking for a barn that clearly has a feel for the horse. At 5/1 on the morning line, he's a fair price to round out the trifecta.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Warrior Bunny Zee carries a dominant TrackWiz rating into this mile allowance, but the morning-line favorite Hot Gossip creates a fascinating betting dynamic — the crowd may be backing the wrong horse.

win3Warrior Bunny ZeeML 5/2

Warrior Bunny Zee is the class of this five-horse allowance field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — nearly 9 points clear of Shannon K and over 38 points ahead of the morning-line favorite Hot Gossip. Despite going off at 5/2 on the morning line, he represents real value if the crowd over-bets the 8/5 chalk. Trainer Michael A. LeCesse puts Keiber J. Coa in the irons, one of the more active jockeys on this card, and a career win rate of 15% gives him a proven winner's profile heading into a distance that suits closers and pace-pressers alike.

place4Shannon KML 3/1

Shannon K catches the eye with the highest average speed figure in the field — a 55 — which tells us this horse has shown legitimate turn-of-foot on the dirt before. Trainer Jon G. Arnett sends him out at 3/1 with Andre Shivnarine Worrie up, a pairing that's been active on this card. The 9% career win rate is modest, but the raw speed number suggests he's capable of running a big race at the right price.

show2Hot GossipML 8/5

Hot Gossip is the morning-line favorite at 8/5, but our analysis slots her as the show pick — the rating of 48.85 doesn't justify that chalk price in a field where two horses rate significantly higher. That said, a 16% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure keep her relevant for the trifecta. If the pace gets hot between the top two, she could be the beneficiary, and being on the right side of a potential pace collapse is never a bad thing in exotics.

Our three free picks today — Rockinmoney in Race 1, Broken Record in Race 2, and Warrior Bunny Zee in Race 3 — all carry TrackWiz ratings in the 87–89 range, which is a tight cluster signaling a genuinely competitive early card. Rockinmoney opens things up in a 5½-furlong allowance sprint where pace figures to be honest, and a clean break from the gate could be the whole ballgame. Broken Record faces maiden claimers going two turns, and route experience at this level carries real weight. Warrior Bunny Zee rounds out the free trio in another allowance mile — a 5/2 morning line suggests the market already respects this one, but our rating backs up the confidence.

One angle worth noting across all three: with a firm, dry surface and no moisture in the forecast, early speed has a fair shot at lasting today. Watch for horses that can clear the first turn cleanly in the sprint races — the kickback factor is low and front-runners won't be fighting through mud.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

In Sky We Trust looks like a wire-to-wire type with a commanding rating and a 21% career win rate, but the 3/2 morning line leaves little margin for error — the value in this six-furlong claimer lives deeper in the field.

win2In Sky We TrustML 3/2

In Sky We Trust brings the field's top TrackWiz rating of 89.27 and backs it up with a 21% career win rate — more than double the clip of most competitors here. The average speed figure of 55 leads the field outright, and trainer Chris J. Englehart puts Andre Shivnarine Worrie in the saddle, one of the busier jockeys on this card. At 6 furlongs on the dirt, a horse with this kind of speed rating and proven winning habits is a tough nut to crack, even at a short price.

place4Mister J TML 5/1

Mister J T is an intriguing place target at 5/1 on the morning line, posting a TrackWiz rating of 62.76 — third-best in the field. Trainer Karl M. Grusmark sends him out with Jacqueline A. Davis aboard, and the 12% career win rate shows he knows how to get a check occasionally. If In Sky We Trust is contested hard out of the gate, Mister J T could be sitting pretty for the second spot at a price that delivers real exacta value.

show7Max FosterML 8/1

Max Foster rates at 59.49 — just below Mister J T — and comes in at 8/1, making him the most attractive value play for the show position or as an underneath horse in trifectas. Trainer David Oyola gets Oscar Gomez in the irons, and the 12% career win rate mirrors Mister J T's, suggesting a similar competitive profile. In a race where the top three spots are fighting for separation, Max Foster has enough ability to sneak into the frame at a generous price.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A full ten-horse maiden special weight sprint draws a fascinating top-heavy shape — Gitole and Grizz At the Gate rate nearly identically near the top of the board while the rest of the field falls away quickly.

win7GitoleML 3/1

Gitole tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.57 and goes postward at just 3/1, making him the morning-line co-favorite among the elite tier in this race. Trainer Charlton Baker puts Luis E. Perez up, and the 54 average speed figure is right in line with the best horses in the field. In a ten-horse MSW sprint where debut or lightly-raced horses can be unpredictable, having a measurable speed figure advantage is a significant edge — Gitole has earned his spot as the top selection.

place5Grizz At the GateML 5/1

Grizz At the Gate is virtually inseparable from Gitole in the ratings at 84.17 and offers slightly better morning-line value at 5/1. Trainer Paul W. Barrow — who also saddles Thunderclap in this race — hands the mount to Jeremias Flores, and the 54 average speed figure confirms Grizz has shown ability in the mornings. In a wide MSW field, having the second-best rating and 5/1 odds makes for a compelling place play and a natural exacta partner with Gitole.

show6Killybegs KidML 5/1

Killybegs Kid fills out the show spot with a 66.71 TrackWiz rating — a solid step below the top two but well clear of the rest of the field. Trainer Jeremiah C. Englehart gets Andre Shivnarine Worrie up, a strong jockey booking, and the 53 average speed figure shows he's put in competitive works. At 5/1 on the morning line, Killybegs Kid is an attractive trifecta piece who could outrun his odds if the top two soften each other up.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Ty Ty Rose looks like the class of this maiden sprint with a rating advantage and the morning-line favoritism to match, but several first-out horses with no speed figures add a wildcard element that keeps this race unpredictable.

win3Ty Ty RoseML 2/1

Ty Ty Rose holds the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 79.05 and goes as the 2/1 morning-line favorite — the numbers and the market are aligned. Trainer Michael S. Ferraro puts Luis E. Perez in the irons, and an average speed figure of 53 gives Ty Ty Rose a quantifiable edge over several rivals with no published figures at all. In a maiden sprint with unknown quantities lurking, backing the horse with the best rating and verified speed is a sound foundation play.

place2Game and BlueML 5/2

Game and Blue rates at 57.5 and ships in at 5/2 — just off the favorite's price — with an average speed figure of 53 that matches Ty Ty Rose on raw pace. Trainer Dana Saul saddles her with Jose Baez aboard, a booking that suggests the barn is ready to fire. She's the most logical exacta partner with the top pick, and if Ty Ty Rose encounters any trouble in a seven-horse sprint, Game and Blue is positioned to pounce.

show7Moriches BayML 4/1

Moriches Bay brings a 55.0 rating and draws in at 4/1 on the morning line, representing fair value for the third spot in this competitive maiden field. Trainer William H. Bartlett gives the call to Jacqueline A. Davis, and while no average speed figure is on record for this horse, the rating profile puts her squarely in the frame. First-time or lightly-raced horses with no speed figures can surprise in either direction, and at 4/1, Moriches Bay is worth including underneath in trifecta tickets.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Three horses — King's Leap, Zatara, and Ouster — are tightly bunched at the top of this allowance optional claiming field going a mile and 70 yards, setting up a fascinating pace and strategy battle between two Ferraro-connected contenders and a live 3/1 shot.

win2King's LeapML 5/2

King's Leap carries a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 and a 35% career win rate — tied for the highest win percentage in the race but with a meaningful rating edge. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro saddles him with Luis E. Perez, and his 53 average speed figure keeps him honest against a tough group. At 5/2 on the morning line, King's Leap is the pick to carry the race over the added distance of a mile and 70 yards, a test that suits horses with sustained pace rather than pure early speed.

place5ZataraML 3/1

Zatara is nearly as strong as King's Leap on the ratings board at 86.49, just 1.32 points separating the two, and he's trained by Jon G. Arnett with Keiber J. Coa aboard — a sharp booking. The 16% career win rate is lower than the top pick, but the class level and raw rating make him a genuine threat to run second at minimum. At 3/1 on the morning line, Zatara belongs in every exacta and trifecta combination in this race.

show1OusterML 5/1

Ouster is a compelling show play at 5/1, posting a 72.92 TrackWiz rating and a jaw-dropping 35% career win rate — matching King's Leap on that metric and far exceeding most of this field. Trainer Jonathan B. Buckley sends him out with Andre Shivnarine Worrie, and the 53 average speed figure keeps him in range. A horse who wins 35% of his career starts has a knack for finding the winner's circle, and at 5/1, he's a value overlay for show and underneath exotics.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Fiery Heart's 87.08 rating towers over this claiming mile field, but I'm Solo N in Love and Fever Night make the exacta interesting — this race has a clear top-end favorite and legitimate depth behind it.

win1Fiery HeartML 3/1

Fiery Heart leads this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 and an impressive 32% career win rate — by far the highest winning percentage in the race and a stat that screams consistent performer at this level. Trainer Jonathan B. Buckley puts Andre Shivnarine Worrie up, a jockey who's been active throughout this card, and the 52 average speed figure keeps pace with the competitive cluster in this bunch. At 3/1 on the morning line, Fiery Heart is underbet relative to her rating advantage and that elite career win rate.

place8I'm Solo N in LoveML 4/1

I'm Solo N in Love comes in with a 70.2 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field — and a morning line of 4/1 that makes her a genuine value play for the place position. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro, who's been busy all card, puts Joel Cruz in the irons, and the 11% career win rate while modest still indicates a horse capable of cashing tickets. For exacta bettors pairing her with Fiery Heart, the 4/1 morning line should translate to a juicy return.

show7Fever NightML 5/2

Fever Night carries a 67.67 TrackWiz rating and draws as the 5/2 second choice on the morning line — she's listed as our show pick partly because the market may slightly overrate her relative to Fiery Heart's clear edge. Trainer Fernando Abreu gets Christopher Elliott aboard, and a 16% career win rate shows she's a live horse who competes hard. As a show selection she's nearly a lock to hit the board at some price, and including her in trifectas with the top two is a logical play.

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Bottom line: it's a clean, fast afternoon at Finger Lakes with a well-constructed eight-race card. Rockinmoney, Broken Record, and Warrior Bunny Zee are your free best bets to get started. For the complete picture — including pace projections, exotic tickets, and our best plays from Race 4 onward — full analysis is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there, and let's cash some tickets.

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