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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — October 5, 2026

October 5, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

It's a beautiful autumn Monday at Finger Lakes — clear skies, 57°F, and a fast dirt strip that should reward horses with early speed all afternoon. This is the kind of weather that brings out sharp form, and with eight races on the card spanning claiming routes to maiden sprints, there's plenty to dig into.

The card leans heavily on maiden special weight action — five of the eight races carry that condition, which means unproven horses and volatile odds boards. That's where homework pays off, and where TrackWiz analysis earns its keep.

Three races are open to all readers today, giving everyone a solid foundation before the main event of the afternoon. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Three horses are separated from the rest of the field on our ratings, setting up a potential top-three exacta and trifecta for players — but the morning line tells a different story than the numbers.

win7StjamesML 5/2

Stjames draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and is correctly installed as the second choice on the morning line at 5/2 — making this more of a value play than a chalky bet. Trainer Rachel Sells sends this one out with a jockey change to Emanuel De Diego, and the 1 1/16-mile dirt distance suits a horse that has shown enough consistency to merit top honors here. At 5/2, you're not overpaying for the top-rated horse in the field, and that's a good spot to be in a claiming opener.

place2Action SeekerML 2/1

Action Seeker is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, and a TrackWiz rating of 84.26 backs up that favoritism — this is a legitimate contender. What gives us slight pause is that the rating edge belongs to Stjames, and Action Seeker's average speed figure of 53 is middle-of-the-pack for this group. Still, a 12% career win rate and the backing of trainer Jon G. Arnett make this one a safe inclusion for the place spot in your exotics.

show6Street Cop OfficerML 4/1

Street Cop Officer opens at 4/1 on the morning line but carries a 82.95 rating that frankly suggests more than a show ticket. Jacqueline A. Davis gets the call for trainer Eduardo Maver Jr., and while Street Cop's average speed figure of 51 is modest, the overall rating puts this horse firmly in the competitive cluster. Use it underneath in trifectas — the 4/1 price could look very generous if the top two stumble at all.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where two horses stand clearly above the field on our ratings — the question is whether 5/2 is generous enough on the top pick, or if the 5/1 second choice offers better ticket value.

win6Concrete KidML 5/2

Concrete Kid tops this maiden claiming field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and the best average speed figure in the race at 54 — that combination is hard to argue against in a field where most rivals are clustered in the 50-53 range. Oscar Gomez gets the mount for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this is a well-supported top choice we're happy to follow. In maiden claiming sprints, the horse with the clearest edge on both rating and raw speed is usually the right bet.

place2King SolomonML 5/1

King Solomon is our place pick at 5/1 and offers genuine value — a rating of 83.42 and an average speed figure of 53 put this horse clearly in contention with only the top pick ahead on our numbers. Trainer Ralph D'Alessandro has a dual entry in this race (Solo Flight is also his), and King Solomon is clearly the stable's preferred runner given the morning line differential. The 5/1 price on a horse with an 83-plus rating in a maiden claimer is worth playing.

show1Bargain PurchaseML 7/2

Bargain Purchase opens at 7/2 and carries a 63.85 rating — not flashy, but good enough to earn the show spot in a field where most horses below the top two drop off sharply. Trainer Dana Saul sends out Jose Baez, and the average speed figure of 51 is consistent with a horse that can hit the board without necessarily threatening for the win. Round out your trifectas with this one.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

This maiden special weight route goes a mile and 70 yards on the dirt — a test of stamina that could expose the difference between a true route horse and one just trying the distance, with our top pick carrying a significant rating gap over the field.

win1ShakeitforthebirdML 4/1

Shakeitforthebird lands at the top of our ratings at 85.62 and is trained by M. Anthony Ferraro, who has multiple runners on the card today — a sign of a barn firing on all cylinders. Keiber J. Coa takes the mount, and the combination of a top rating, a route-friendly average speed of 51, and the 4/1 morning line makes this a strong win play. In a maiden special weight going a route of ground, we want the horse with the clearest overall profile, and Shakeitforthebird fits that description.

place7Mo CurlsML 5/2

Mo Curls sits second on our ratings at 72.95 and is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 — trainer Rudy R. Rodriguez sends out Reylu Gutierrez, a sharp rider-trainer combo that knows how to place horses. The average speed figure of 52 is solid for this distance, and if the top pick runs into any trouble on the far turn of this long dirt route, Mo Curls has the profile to collect the place.

show6Baby MeanieML 5/1

Baby Meanie at 5/1 is the third pick in this race and opens with a 58.98 rating — the gap to the top two is real, but in a maiden route where stamina is the ultimate question, pace scenarios can scramble the order significantly. Christopher Elliott rides for trainer Ralph D'Alessandro, and at 5/1, Baby Meanie gives you live show coverage without costing too much in exotic tickets.

Our three free best bets cover the early part of the card and offer a nice range of race types to get your day started. Stjames tops the opener — a 1 1/16-mile dirt claiming route where our model gives him an 87.81 rating and he lands right on the morning line at 5/2. In Race 2, Concrete Kid matches that same 87.81 rating going six furlongs in maiden claiming company, and sprint form at Finger Lakes this time of year is worth leaning into on a firm, fast surface. Round out the free trio with Shakeitforthebird in Race 3 — a maiden special weight stretch-out going a mile and 70 yards, where our figures peg a 4/1 morning line at 85.62. That's a solid rating for a horse with value attached.

A consistent thread across these three: all our top picks figure to handle the dry, fast conditions well, and none of them are being asked to do anything out of their comfort zone class- or distance-wise. Clean setups all around.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A contentious maiden special weight at 5 1/2 furlongs where the top pick carries a meaningful rating edge but the field is tightly bunched — pace could be the deciding factor with multiple first-time starters and short-on-data runners in the mix.

win7Cadillac MaryML 5/2

Cadillac Mary tops our ratings at 72.14 with a morning line of 5/2, and the combination of a 55 average speed figure and trainer Jeremiah C. Englehart's presence makes this one stand out in what is otherwise a closely matched field. Englehart is one of the more accomplished conditioners on the card today — he also runs Rockin Red in Race 6 and Iron Hall in this very race — and when a trainer enters two horses in the same maiden race, the one at shorter odds is almost always the primary try. Andre Shivnarine Worrie takes the call here, and we trust the connections to have this filly ready.

place1Authentic GiniML 3/1

Authentic Gini opens at 3/1 with a 56.67 rating and a solid average speed figure of 54 — matching the best in the race. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro places Luis E. Perez in the irons, and this filly's speed figure is right there with the top pick. If Cadillac Mary gets caught up in a pace duel, Authentic Gini has the raw early speed to capitalize.

show6Split the BlanketML 7/2

Split the Blanket draws the best average speed figure in the entire race at 56, which is a number that jumps off the page in this field. Trainer Melanie Giddings sends her out with Shaun Bridgmohan up, and the 7/2 morning line reflects some real public respect. The rating of 55.83 is strong enough for show consideration, and that top speed figure gives her a chance to wire this field if the pace unfolds favorably.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A full field of ten goes six furlongs in maiden special weight company, with two horses on our ratings pulling well clear of the pack — making the top of the ticket fairly structured, but value lurks in the exacta.

win2CelesliaML 3/1

Celeslia tops our ratings at 87.08 and opens at 3/1 — one of the better price-to-rating relationships on today's card. Trainer Paul W. Barrow sends her out with Jeremias Flores, and an average speed figure of 54 is among the best in this field. With ten runners going six furlongs, the pace scenario could get complicated early, but Celeslia's overall profile suggests she has the tools to sort it out.

place1Lookie HereML 7/2

Lookie Here is right behind at an 83.81 rating and 7/2 on the morning line — trainer Bruce N. Levine is a shrewd conditioner who knows when a horse is ready, and Keiber J. Coa is one of the sharpest riders on the grounds today. The 53 average speed figure won't lead this field, but this looks like a horse with a closer profile who can find her best stride in the final sixteenth. Play her on top and underneath in exactas.

show3Ty Ty RoseML 5/1

Ty Ty Rose at 5/1 holds a 60.46 rating and brings an average speed of 52, with trainer Michael S. Ferraro adding another runner to an already busy day. In a large field like this one, pace can get chaotic and a horse with clean numbers in the 60-point range can hit the board at a price — at 5/1 in show position, Ty Ty Rose gives your exotic tickets some depth.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Nine first-time or maiden starters go 5 1/2 furlongs in a wide-open maiden special weight where the ratings are tightly packed and the morning line offers little separation — this is a race where pace scenario and connections matter as much as anything.

win4Sticky SituationML 7/2

Sticky Situation opens at 7/2 and leads our ratings at 55.83 with the best average speed figure in the race at 55 — in a sprint, that combination carries real weight. Trainer Linda Rice is a sharp operator, and Oscar Gomez brings experience and tactical awareness to the irons. In a race this evenly matched, we lean on speed figures, and Sticky Situation's edge there is the reason she tops our card.

place7Mr RigatoniML 4/1

Mr Rigatoni comes in at 4/1 with a 55.0 rating, virtually tied with the top pick — but our model gives the edge to Sticky Situation, so we slot Mr Rigatoni in for place. Christopher Elliott rides for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci, and while the 49 average speed figure is the lowest among horses with recorded figures, the rating itself keeps him in the mix. In a sprint this tight, he's worth including in exactas.

show6PlayinmindgamesML 9/2

Playinmindgames at 9/2 checks in at 54.17 on our ratings and is trained by Michael S. Ferraro, who has runners throughout today's card — a trainer with multiple entries often has a hot barn, and Ferraro certainly qualifies today. Luis E. Perez is a capable pilot, and while Playinmindgames has no recorded average speed figure, the rating is strong enough to keep her in the show conversation in this clustered field.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This claiming sprint at 5 1/2 furlongs features a genuine top-rated contender going postward at a price — with an experienced field posting real career win percentages, it's a more substantial race than the opener and the pace scenario should be honest.

win4Rachel's RockML 4/1

Rachel's Rock leads our ratings at 85.62 and opens at 4/1 on the morning line — a horse we view as slightly undervalued given that number. Trainer Rachel Sells and jockey Emanuel De Diego team up here, and a 26% career win rate is the best in the entire field, meaning this horse has been finding the winner's circle on a regular basis. The 54 average speed figure is competitive in this group, and the combination of elite rating and top win percentage makes Rachel's Rock our confident top selection.

place1Carol Said NoML 7/2

Carol Said No at 7/2 holds an 81.85 rating and brings a remarkable 20% career win rate to the table — this is a horse that knows how to compete. Trainer Ralph D'Alessandro places Andre Shivnarine Worrie in the irons, and the 54 average speed figure matches the top pick exactly. If Rachel's Rock gets into a pace duel, Carol Said No has the experience and closing ability to pick up the pieces.

show6Hidden VaseML 5/1

Hidden Vase opens at 5/1 with a 74.42 rating and the best average speed figure in the race at 56 — that's a number that demands respect in a claiming sprint. Trainer Jon G. Arnett saddles Keiber J. Coa, who has had a busy and productive day on the card, and a 16% career win rate confirms this horse can hit the board consistently. The pace scenario could set up perfectly for a strong-running type with elite raw speed.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a ten-horse maiden special weight sprint where our top pick has a commanding rating advantage — the interesting subplot is a place pick at 8/1 that could offer real exotic value if the top selection runs as expected.

win7Rock Steady BabeML 3/1

Rock Steady Babe tops the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and is correctly installed as the 3/1 morning-line favorite — but what makes this horse truly interesting is the 9% career win rate despite being a maiden, suggesting a horse that has run competitively without breaking through. Trainer Charlton Baker sends out Andre Shivnarine Worrie, who has been active on the card today, and the 53 average speed figure is in line with the competitive horses in this field. This is the kind of top-rated, reasonably-priced horse we're happy to take a stand on in the finale.

place2Spirit ForwardML 8/1

Spirit Forward at 8/1 is the value play of the race — a 69.64 rating puts this horse clearly second on our model, and that's a significant gap above most of the remaining field. Kevin Navarro rides for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley, and an average speed figure of 53 keeps Spirit Forward competitive with the top pick on raw numbers. At 8/1, this is a genuine overlay in the place spot and well worth including in exactas and trifectas.

show4Ready Rosie JaneML 4/1

Ready Rosie Jane opens at 4/1 with a 61.04 rating — third-best in the race — and trainer Nicholas P. Zito is one of the most accomplished names on the grounds today. Keiber J. Coa, who has ridden well throughout this card, gets the mount, and an average speed figure of 52 is workmanlike but functional. In a ten-horse maiden sprint where chaos is possible, having a Zito-trained horse with a live jockey in your show coverage feels like prudent handicapping.

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It's a clean, crisp day at Finger Lakes with a fast track and a competitive eight-race card. Stjames, Concrete Kid, and Shakeitforthebird are your free best bets to anchor the early card. For the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and picks on all eight races including Rachel's Rock and Rock Steady Babe in the back half — subscribers have everything they need waiting in the full analysis. Good luck out there, and let the card come to you.

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