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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — September 21, 2026

September 21, 20269 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

Finger Lakes kicks off the week under cloudy skies and a cool 58°F — the kind of crisp September afternoon that keeps the dirt firm and the times honest. Nine races are on the board, and today's card has some real bite to it.

Four stakes races spread across the afternoon give this card a weightier feel than your typical Monday-at-the-Finger-Lakes fare. We've got sprint specialists, route horses, and a maiden field all mixing it up on an all-dirt card. Plenty of angles to work.

TrackWiz analysis has flagged several horses with standout ratings — led by Galileans Girl at 88.54 in Race 6 — and a handful of price plays worth building tickets around. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A clear class standout sits atop this allowance mile-plus field, but there's enough talent lurking at mid-range odds to make the exotics interesting.

win4Love CoinML 5/2

Love Coin (4) is the one to beat here, sporting a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — well clear of the field — and a career win rate of 25% that screams consistency. That kind of strike rate in an allowance spot at this level is genuinely impressive and speaks to a horse that knows how to finish the job. Jockey Keiber J. Coa picks up the mount for trainer Miguel Clement, a solid pairing at a price (5/2 morning line) that isn't giving away much value but is justified by the numbers. At a route distance of 1 mile and 70 yards, Love Coin's overall profile suggests enough stamina to get the job done.

place2Reign It InML 6/1

Reign It In (2) checks in with a 79.63 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — and while a 7% career win rate isn't flashy, the 6/1 morning line makes this a compelling place play. Trainer Chris J. Englehart is well-regarded in this circuit, and Andre Shivnarine Worrie gets the call in the irons. At a route distance that can expose closers and pace horses alike, Reign It In's profile suggests a horse that can grind into the money.

show5AlmezML 7/2

Almez (5) rates third-best in the field at 72.51 and gives trainer Michael S. Ferraro a live runner at 7/2. Sofia Vives has the mount, and with a 10% career win rate, Almez is a horse capable of firing on the right day. As a show play, you're banking on a horse with enough ability to stay competitive against the top two picks — and the rating gap between Almez and the horses below is meaningful enough to warrant the inclusion.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short field of undefeated juveniles and a lone multiple winner make this sprint stakes a fascinating battle of perfect records — someone's 'zero in the loss column' gets erased today.

win5Sun Kissed BlissML 8/5

Sun Kissed Bliss (5) is the morning line favorite at 8/5 and carries the top TrackWiz rating of 59.00 in the field, backed by a 100% career win rate. Trainer Joe Sharp is a nationally respected conditioner who consistently gets his horses ready at the right time, and landing Kendrick Carmouche — one of the sharpest riders in the region — is a significant positive angle. At 5.5 furlongs on dirt, this is a horse whose speed figure (55 avg) ties the top of the field, and the overall package makes Sun Kissed Bliss a deserving chalk play.

place2Pwr of PersistenceML 3/1

Pwr of Persistence (2) also carries a 100% career win rate and a 56.67 TrackWiz rating, making trainer Paul W. Barrow's barn the one to watch in this race — he saddles three runners. Andre Shivnarine Worrie has the call, and at 3/1, there's real value in a horse that hasn't lost yet. The main question is whether Barrow's trio splits votes in the wagering, which could keep this one at a workable price.

show3Sweet Sugar PieML 7/2

Sweet Sugar Pie (3) is the second Barrow barn runner and mirrors her stablemate with a 100% career win rate and a 55.83 TrackWiz rating — just a tick below Pwr of Persistence. Jeremias Flores gets the mount, and with three Barrow horses in the field, at least one of them figures to be in the thick of it at the wire. As a show play in a stakes sprint full of unblemished records, Sweet Sugar Pie is a logical hedge.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning line favors a close duel between two lightly-raced horses with strong profiles, but a deep Ferraro barn and a late-closing profile from the favorite's rivals give this stakes sprint legitimate intrigue.

win4D I WireML 2/1

D I Wire (4) leads our selections with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating and draws one of the best jockeys in the country in Paco Lopez, who rarely makes the trip without a live horse under him. Trainer Kelly J. Breen has a strong reputation for placing horses correctly, and a 50% career win rate on a 2/1 morning line suggests this is a horse whose record is built on competitive spots. An average speed figure of 54 is solid for this level, and the overall profile screams 'fits perfectly here.'

place1Covered OptionML 5/2

Covered Option (1) rates just behind D I Wire at 57.50 and also brings a 50% career win rate to the gate, giving this race two legitimate class contenders at the top. Javier Castellano — Hall of Fame rider — in the irons at 5/2 is not something you overlook lightly, and trainer Lisa Bartkowski appears to have this horse primed. If D I Wire sets or stalks a pace, Covered Option has the profile to pick up the pieces for second.

show6Big PoppyML 7/2

Big Poppy (6) is the one undefeated runner in this field with a 100% career win rate and the top average speed figure of 55. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro saddles multiple horses in this race, and Big Poppy at 7/2 is the one who most screams 'sneaky dangerous.' If the pace scenario sets up for a closer, this horse could surprise the top two — making a show ticket solid insurance.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader today, and they cover a nice cross-section of the card. Race 1 opens things up with Love Coin (morning line 5/2) in an allowance route going a mile and 70 yards — our top rating of 87.81 suggests she's the most solid plays of the free trio. In Race 2, Sun Kissed Bliss (8/5) takes on a 5½-furlong stakes sprint where the pace should set up perfectly for a closer. Race 3 follows the same distance and surface, with D I Wire (2/1) drawing our eye as a horse who can control the tempo and dare the field to run him down.

The cool, cloudy conditions shouldn't favor any one running style dramatically today, but on a firm Finger Lakes dirt strip, front-runners have historically been worth a second look — keep that in mind as you watch the early fractions in those sprint stakes.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A nine-horse claiming sprint with two standout ratings at the top and a competitive mid-range cluster that should generate some pace pressure and create value in the exacta.

win2ItwillbefunML 4/1

Itwillbefun (2) leads our TrackWiz ratings in this race at 85.62 — a significant gap over the rest of the field — and while a 12% career win rate looks modest, it's consistent with a horse that has been running at competitive levels. Trainer Dana Saul and jockey Jose Baez team up, and at 4/1 on the morning line, this is a horse whose rating suggests the market may be slightly undervaluing it. In a 6-furlong dirt sprint, an average speed figure of 54 is right in range for this class of claiming horses.

place7Carol Said NoML 5/1

Carol Said No (7) is genuinely interesting at 5/1 with a career win rate of 21% — among the best in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 80.82 that makes her the clear second choice on our numbers. Trainer Ralph D'Alessandro sends her out with Andre Shivnarine Worrie, who has been active and effective at this meet. She matches Itwillbefun on average speed (55) and is the type of horse who can hold on for second if the favorite goes wire-to-wire.

show4Spun SizeML 7/2

Spun Size (4) rates 68.64 and brings a respectable 18% career win rate to a field where finding consistent horses is the challenge. Trainer Charlton Baker puts Luis E. Perez up, and at 7/2, Spun Size is priced as a legitimate contender — not quite at the level of the top two in our ratings, but close enough to factor. In a claiming race with pace pressure likely from multiple horses, a stalking type like this can get up for third.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse maiden sprint is always a puzzle, but one runner stands well above the field on our ratings, and a handful of others with better-than-average speed figures round out the top of this unpredictable affair.

win6CelesliaML 3/1

Celeslia (6) is the clear top pick here with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — by a wide margin the best in this maiden field — and Paul W. Barrow, who has proven multiple times today he knows how to condition sprinters, has her ready. Jeremias Flores has been sharp at this meet, and the 3/1 morning line is fair given her credentials. With an average speed figure of 54 in a maiden field where many runners are unproven, Celeslia has the profile of a horse that can get this done in a single try.

place1Kozy BeeML 6/1

Kozy Bee (1) is our place play at 6/1, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 64.84 — second best in this field — and trainer Katlynn Gutterson puts Steven Fret up for what looks like a spot designed to get a result. An average speed of 52 is workable at this maiden level, and the inside post draw can be an advantage in a sprint if she breaks cleanly. At 6/1, there's real value to include her in exactas and trifectas as a live piece.

show8Lively PalML 4/1

Lively Pal (8) rates 56.18 — third in the field — and benefits from the Chris J. Englehart barn, one of the more reliable operations at this meet. Andre Shivnarine Worrie is aboard, making this an attractive jockey-trainer combo that has clearly clicked throughout the card today. An average speed of 55 ties for the top mark in this maiden field, which tells you the raw ability might be ahead of where the TrackWiz rating places her — making her worth a show ticket as upside insurance.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A seven-horse stakes sprint that looks like a one-horse show on paper, but a pair of closers with win pedigrees keep the exotics alive and worth constructing.

win5Galileans GirlML 2/1

Galileans Girl (5) is the standout of the entire race card in this spot — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating paired with a 37% career win rate is an elite combination you rarely see come together in a field this small. Trainer Linda K. Dixon sends her out with Nazario Alvarado, and the 2/1 morning line reflects a healthy respect from the morning line makers. Her average speed of 55 leads the field, and in a 6-furlong stakes sprint, everything about her profile points to a dominant effort.

place2Rubies for OliviaML 4/1

Rubies for Olivia (2) is a logical place play at 4/1 — a 66.47 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate make her the second-best option on both measures. Trainer Jonathan B. Buckley and jockey Joel Cruz are a pairing worth watching, and while Galileans Girl looks hard to beat, Rubies for Olivia has enough class to hold down the runner-up spot. Her average speed of 52 is a tick below the favorite, but win percentage doesn't lie — this one knows how to hit the board.

show1AnnagendaML 12/1

Annagenda (1) is our show value play at 12/1 — a 51.24 TrackWiz rating and 20% career win rate in a field where most horses hover in the 40s on our scale gives her a realistic path to the board. Trainer Paul W. Barrow has been active throughout this card, and Oscar Gomez takes the mount. The inside post in a 6-furlong sprint can be a significant asset if she breaks cleanly and controls her position early — at those odds, she's a ticket-padding show play worth including in exotics.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A stakes sprint with a clear top-rated runner against a field that includes a morning line co-favorite with a big win rate and a capable mid-pack stalker — pace could be contested early, which sets up beautifully for the best closer.

win6Lord KingML 5/2

Lord King (6) carries the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and a career win rate of 27% that is genuinely strong for a stakes-level runner. Trainer Luis Gutierrez has him primed — Reylu Gutierrez takes the mount, and this jockey-trainer combination has the chemistry to execute a game plan at 5/2. His average speed of 55 ties the top of the field with Valentine Crusader, but the overall rating gap between Lord King and the rest is the story here.

place4Kings DancerML 6/1

Kings Dancer (4) is a compelling place play at 6/1 — a 76.81 TrackWiz rating is a clear second-best in this field and Nazario Alvarado has been quietly effective throughout this card. Trainer Linda K. Dixon is no stranger to stakes-level horses, evidenced by her runner Galileans Girl winning the previous race on our card. A 10% career win rate understates the competitive profile here — this is the type of horse that often runs well for second when the top pick wins.

show7StickupwithoutagunML 2/1

Stickupwithoutagun (7) is the morning line co-favorite at 2/1 but sits third in our TrackWiz ratings at 60.88, which makes it interesting that the market has him priced tighter than our numbers suggest is warranted. A 33% career win rate is excellent and trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci has had a busy card today. Christopher Elliott gets the mount, and if Lord King has a troubled trip, Stickupwithoutagun is the horse most likely to capitalize as a show hedge.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming mile features a well-separated top pair on our ratings, with a capable closer lurking at a price that makes the trifecta worth targeting.

win5Sweet AnniversaryML 7/2

Sweet Anniversary (5) leads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate — that combination makes her one of the most trustworthy horses on today's entire card. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro, who has runners throughout this card, clearly has her in good form, and Keiber J. Coa is an excellent choice at 7/2. Her average speed of 54 matches the field's best, and at a one-mile distance that rewards class and stamina, everything points in her direction.

place6Zi EndML 5/2

Zi End (6) brings the most impressive career win rate in this field at 53% — more than half of all career starts have ended in victory, which is a remarkable figure for a horse in an allowance optional claiming field. Joel Cruz has the mount for trainer Debra A. Breed, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market already respects this one. An average speed of 55 — top of the field — means she has the raw tools to go with her win percentage, making her a strong place selection.

show3Katie KingML 8/1

Katie King (3) is our show play at 8/1 — a 69.56 TrackWiz rating and a 26% career win rate suggest a horse performing above her odds level. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro saddles this one as well, and Luis E. Perez picks up the mount. At a mile on dirt, a horse with demonstrated ability and a respectable strike rate at 8/1 is exactly the kind of overlay that makes trifectas profitable — include her underneath the top two and let it play out.

Race 9

8:47 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The final race of the night is a nine-horse claiming sprint with one horse towering above the field on our ratings, but a cluster of similarly-figured competitors makes the exacta and trifecta worth playing wide.

win5Heads Or TailsML 7/2

Heads Or Tails (5) is the standout selection in the finale with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — a significant advantage over the rest of the field — and trainer Chris J. Englehart, who has managed runners efficiently throughout this card, appears to have this horse pointed right. Andre Shivnarine Worrie gets the call, having been one of the busiest and most effective jockeys on today's program. A 17% career win rate in claiming company is competitive, and an average speed of 54 ties the field's best, making this a well-rounded top pick at 7/2.

place8Irie ManML 6/1

Irie Man (8) makes plenty of sense as a place play at 6/1 — a 69.37 TrackWiz rating is the second-best in this field and trainer Charlton Baker has had a capable day. Joel Cruz takes the mount, and with a 11% career win rate in claiming company, Irie Man is a horse that competes regularly without always getting the glory. At 6 furlongs, pace can get hot in a nine-horse field and a horse sitting off the early speed can find a clear lane in mid-stretch — that's the profile here.

show2He Has It AllML 3/1

He Has It All (2) is our show play at 3/1 — a 61.72 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate make him a legitimate contender who checks in just below the top two on our scale. Trainer Joseph E. Marino puts Steven Fret up, and the 3/1 morning line reflects genuine respect from the linemaker. In a nine-horse field with pace expected to be honest, a horse with consistent figures and a fair strike rate is the kind of safety net you want underneath your top selections in the trifecta.

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Four stakes, cool conditions, and a card that rewards sharp handicapping over gut plays — today at Finger Lakes has the ingredients for a profitable afternoon. Start with Love Coin, Sun Kissed Bliss, and D I Wire in the free races, then let our premium analysis guide you through the back half. Full card coverage, pace projections, and exotic tickets are all waiting at /pricing.

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