You're reading 3 of 9 races free
Unlock the other 6 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.
Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — September 14, 2026
It's a beautiful Monday afternoon at Finger Lakes — clear skies, 64°F, and the kind of firm, fast conditions that reward horses with legitimate speed figures. Nine races on the dirt today, ranging from sprint claiming events to allowance tests, and our models are finding some genuinely interesting spots across the card.
The card has a nice variety to it. You've got short sprints at 5 1/2 furlongs dominating the program, but Races 2, 5, and 7 stretch the field out to a mile or beyond, which tends to shift the pace dynamics considerably and open the door for closers. On a sharp, dry day like this, early speed can be punishing in the sprints — keep that in mind when you're digging into the form.
Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today, and we like what we're seeing in the free portion of the card. Constant Chaos kicks things off in Race 1 with a strong 87.81 rating, and there's a compelling story building through Races 2 and 3 as well. The real fireworks, though? That's in the premium breakdown.
Best Bets
Race 1
Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
A wide-open allowance sprint where the morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse — TrackWiz sees real value underneath and a clear top choice that the crowd may be underestimating.
Constant Chaos lands at the top of our TrackWiz ratings with an 87.81 score — the highest in this field — despite going off at a generous 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Jonathan Buckley keeps this one sharp, and a 14% career win rate from a horse with this kind of rating separation is a strong combo in a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint. The pace scenario here sets up well for a horse with Chaos's profile — let the speed press each other and come calling late. At 5/2, this is about as close to a confident play as we'll find all afternoon.
Romantic Charmer draws the rail and comes in as the morning line co-favorite at 4/1 with a solid TrackWiz rating of 81.12, second only to our top pick. Keiber Coa is a capable pilot who knows how to save ground from the inside, and while the 11% career win rate is modest, the raw rating here supports at minimum a placing effort. Use underneath in your exotics — this one should be in the mix at the wire.
By Mink Standards (4) posts a 70.15 rating and owns a 14% career win rate, one of the better marks in this field. Michael Davila Jr. gets the mount, and trainer Patrick Baratta has this horse at a higher average speed figure (55) than most rivals. As a show hedge in exotics, By Mink Standards offers legitimate form and enough upside to round out a trifecta key.
Race 2
Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
A fielded claiming route where two horses separate themselves noticeably from the pack on ratings — but the morning line doesn't fully reflect the class gap, creating an opportunity for value players.
My Devine One tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62, a meaningful edge over everyone else in this seven-horse field going a mile and 70 yards on dirt. The 4/1 morning line actually offers fair value for a horse this clearly superior on our model — trainer Dana Saul is no stranger to winning spots at Finger Lakes, and Jose Baez gets a live mount here. The route distance suits a horse with this kind of sustained rating, and we'll make this our primary win play in Race 2.
Pencima (3) is the second-best rated horse in this field at 77.08 and offers real intrigue at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a price that doesn't match the form. Jockey Jacqueline Davis has had her moments at Finger Lakes, and trainer Assaf Ronen has this filly pointed correctly. With a 9% career win rate in a tough claiming environment, she's a grinder who finds her way into the frame more often than not. Strong place play.
Chardonnay Derby (2) is the morning line favorite at 3/1 and brings a 12% career win rate — one of the better figures in this field. While she rates third on our model behind our top two, she's clearly the public's horse, and Luis Pena is a solid pick-up in the irons. As a show play or exotics anchor, Chardonnay Derby's public support alone should keep her near the front of the pack at the wire.
Race 3
Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
The allowance optional claiming conditions make this an interesting mix of class levels — but one horse stands well above the field on ratings while the rest are packed tightly, making pace projection the key to the exotics.
Saratoga Banker (5) is the standout here with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — more than 29 points clear of the next closest horse, Stars N Stones. That kind of separation in a six-horse sprint field is hard to ignore. Keiber Coa takes the mount for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro, a barn that knows how to win at this level, and a 25% career win rate gives you added confidence that this horse is used to finishing first. At 7/2, this isn't a throwaway price — it's reasonable value for a horse we consider a significant class edge.
Stars N Stones (4) checks in at a 56.82 rating with a 19% career win rate — a solid performer who fits the conditions well and has trainer Ferraro in common with our top pick, meaning this barn is doubly live on the day. Kevin Navarro is an active presence at Finger Lakes, and at 4/1, Stars N Stones makes for a natural place play underneath Saratoga Banker in your exactas and trifectas.
Puckish (3) gets a lot of public attention at 2/1 as the morning line favorite, and while our model has this one rated lower than you might expect from that price, the 25% career win rate earns respect. Joel Cruz and trainer Jonathan Buckley are a sharp combo at this level. Even if Puckish doesn't win, the combination of jockey, barn, and win percentage makes this a logical show inclusion — don't leave it off your tickets.
Our three free best bets today span the first three races, and there's a common thread: all three run on a surface that should be playing fast and true given the clear weather and the 64°F temperature — no moisture in the forecast to soften things up. Constant Chaos (Race 1, 5/2 ML) paces the group with the highest rating on the card's free tier at 87.81, a number that stands out in an allowance sprint. In Race 2, My Devine One (4/1 ML) draws our attention going a mile-plus in a claiming route — that distance is a leveler, and a 85.62 rating at 4/1 is the kind of number that makes you want to get involved. Saratoga Banker rounds out the free card in Race 3 (7/2 ML, 86.35 rating), an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint that often features horses dropping for a tag as a tactical hedge — worth watching the final entries closely.
Taken together, these three free picks give casual bettors a solid foundation for the afternoon without overcomplicating things. Win bets on all three represent a reasonable approach; if you want to play multi-race tickets, the Race 1-2-3 early Pick 3 is worth structuring around this trio.
Send me tomorrow's free Finger Lakes card before post time.
Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.
Full Card Analysis
Premium Content
Get the Full Card Analysis
Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.
A crisp fall afternoon at Finger Lakes with nine races on a fast dirt surface — it's a workable card with clear standouts and a few enticing longshot angles scattered throughout. Start with Constant Chaos, My Devine One, and Saratoga Banker in the free races, then let Ouster anchor your premium selections. The full card breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket recommendations are all waiting for subscribers — check out TrackWiz Premium and make the most of your afternoon at the track. Good luck out there.