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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — September 14, 2026

September 14, 20269 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

This card ran on September 14, 2026.

Best bets at Finger Lakes, September 14, 2026

Race 16Constant ChaosML 5/212:55 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 7 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 9, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Last 30 days at Finger Lakes: our top pick won 11 of 58 races (19%) and finished in the money in 33.

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It's a beautiful Monday afternoon at Finger Lakes — clear skies, 64°F, and the kind of firm, fast conditions that reward horses with legitimate speed figures. Nine races on the dirt today, ranging from sprint claiming events to allowance tests, and our models are finding some genuinely interesting spots across the card.

The card has a nice variety to it. You've got short sprints at 5 1/2 furlongs dominating the program, but Races 2, 5, and 7 stretch the field out to a mile or beyond, which tends to shift the pace dynamics considerably and open the door for closers. On a sharp, dry day like this, early speed can be punishing in the sprints — keep that in mind when you're digging into the form.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today, and we like what we're seeing in the free portion of the card. Constant Chaos kicks things off in Race 1 with a strong 87.81 rating, and there's a compelling story building through Races 2 and 3 as well. The real fireworks, though? That's in the premium breakdown.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open allowance sprint where the morning line favorite isn't our top-rated horse — TrackWiz sees real value underneath and a clear top choice that the crowd may be underestimating.

win6Constant ChaosML 5/2

Constant Chaos lands at the top of our TrackWiz ratings with an 87.81 score — the highest in this field — despite going off at a generous 5/2 on the morning line. Trainer Jonathan Buckley keeps this one sharp, and a 14% career win rate from a horse with this kind of rating separation is a strong combo in a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint. The pace scenario here sets up well for a horse with Chaos's profile — let the speed press each other and come calling late. At 5/2, this is about as close to a confident play as we'll find all afternoon.

place1Romantic CharmerML 4/1

Romantic Charmer draws the rail and comes in as the morning line co-favorite at 4/1 with a solid TrackWiz rating of 81.12, second only to our top pick. Keiber Coa is a capable pilot who knows how to save ground from the inside, and while the 11% career win rate is modest, the raw rating here supports at minimum a placing effort. Use underneath in your exotics — this one should be in the mix at the wire.

show4By Mink StandardsML 7/2

By Mink Standards (4) posts a 70.15 rating and owns a 14% career win rate, one of the better marks in this field. Michael Davila Jr. gets the mount, and trainer Patrick Baratta has this horse at a higher average speed figure (55) than most rivals. As a show hedge in exotics, By Mink Standards offers legitimate form and enough upside to round out a trifecta key.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A fielded claiming route where two horses separate themselves noticeably from the pack on ratings — but the morning line doesn't fully reflect the class gap, creating an opportunity for value players.

win5My Devine OneML 4/1

My Devine One tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62, a meaningful edge over everyone else in this seven-horse field going a mile and 70 yards on dirt. The 4/1 morning line actually offers fair value for a horse this clearly superior on our model — trainer Dana Saul is no stranger to winning spots at Finger Lakes, and Jose Baez gets a live mount here. The route distance suits a horse with this kind of sustained rating, and we'll make this our primary win play in Race 2.

place3PencimaML 5/1

Pencima (3) is the second-best rated horse in this field at 77.08 and offers real intrigue at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a price that doesn't match the form. Jockey Jacqueline Davis has had her moments at Finger Lakes, and trainer Assaf Ronen has this filly pointed correctly. With a 9% career win rate in a tough claiming environment, she's a grinder who finds her way into the frame more often than not. Strong place play.

show2Chardonnay DerbyML 3/1

Chardonnay Derby (2) is the morning line favorite at 3/1 and brings a 12% career win rate — one of the better figures in this field. While she rates third on our model behind our top two, she's clearly the public's horse, and Luis Pena is a solid pick-up in the irons. As a show play or exotics anchor, Chardonnay Derby's public support alone should keep her near the front of the pack at the wire.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our three free best bets today span the first three races, and there's a common thread: all three run on a surface that should be playing fast and true given the clear weather and the 64°F temperature — no moisture in the forecast to soften things up. Constant Chaos (Race 1, 5/2 ML) paces the group with the highest rating on the card's free tier at 87.81, a number that stands out in an allowance sprint. In Race 2, My Devine One (4/1 ML) draws our attention going a mile-plus in a claiming route — that distance is a leveler, and a 85.62 rating at 4/1 is the kind of number that makes you want to get involved. Saratoga Banker rounds out the free card in Race 3 (7/2 ML, 86.35 rating), an Allowance Optional Claiming sprint that often features horses dropping for a tag as a tactical hedge — worth watching the final entries closely.

Taken together, these three free picks give casual bettors a solid foundation for the afternoon without overcomplicating things. Win bets on all three represent a reasonable approach; if you want to play multi-race tickets, the Race 1-2-3 early Pick 3 is worth structuring around this trio.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:53 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The allowance optional claiming conditions make this an interesting mix of class levels — but one horse stands well above the field on ratings while the rest are packed tightly, making pace projection the key to the exotics.

win5Saratoga BankerML 7/2

Saratoga Banker (5) is the standout here with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — more than 29 points clear of the next closest horse, Stars N Stones. That kind of separation in a six-horse sprint field is hard to ignore. Keiber Coa takes the mount for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro, a barn that knows how to win at this level, and a 25% career win rate gives you added confidence that this horse is used to finishing first. At 7/2, this isn't a throwaway price — it's reasonable value for a horse we consider a significant class edge.

place4Stars N StonesML 4/1

Stars N Stones (4) checks in at a 56.82 rating with a 19% career win rate — a solid performer who fits the conditions well and has trainer Ferraro in common with our top pick, meaning this barn is doubly live on the day. Kevin Navarro is an active presence at Finger Lakes, and at 4/1, Stars N Stones makes for a natural place play underneath Saratoga Banker in your exactas and trifectas.

show3PuckishML 2/1

Puckish (3) gets a lot of public attention at 2/1 as the morning line favorite, and while our model has this one rated lower than you might expect from that price, the 25% career win rate earns respect. Joel Cruz and trainer Jonathan Buckley are a sharp combo at this level. Even if Puckish doesn't win, the combination of jockey, barn, and win percentage makes this a logical show inclusion — don't leave it off your tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tricky claiming sprint where three horses are rated nearly identically by TrackWiz — and none of them are the morning line favorite — setting the stage for a potential odds overlay on a legitimate form horse.

win4Immortal PoetML 6/1

Immortal Poet (4) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 80.21 and comes in at a juicy 6/1 morning line — that's a horse the model likes that the public hasn't fully caught up with yet. A 20% career win rate is one of the best in the field, and trainer Thalia Areche has this one dialed in for the 5.5-furlong dirt sprint. Nazario Alvarado gets the call, a solid pairing at this level. This is your best value play in Race 4.

place6Princess AzaraML 8/1

Princess Azara (6) is a fascinating play at 8/1 on the morning line with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating — essentially the same as our win pick. Trainer Tamara Housel doesn't get as much attention as some of the bigger barns on this card, but this horse's rating says she belongs. J.M. Rohena has been active on this card, and at 8/1, Princess Azara is a prime candidate for a longshot exacta play in the second slot.

show1Back to KhaliML 4/1

Back to Khali (1) draws the rail with a 79.62 rating — the third-best in the field — and trainer Chris Englehart is one of the sharper conditioners at Finger Lakes. At 4/1, this one won't light up the tote board, but a 10% career win rate in a tough claiming environment still makes this a logical show inclusion. From the rail with Worrie aboard, Back to Khali should be tracking near the front of this pace.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of eight going a flat mile in claiming company — TrackWiz finds a clear top-rated horse at a workable price, but the mid-pack is loaded with similar profiles, making exotics the name of the game here.

win5SanzioML 7/2

Sanzio (5) leads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating, a notable edge in a competitive eight-horse field. Trainer Michael Ferraro has this horse at 7/2 on the morning line, which feels right for the model — not overlay, but fair value on a horse we trust at route distance on dirt. Andre Worrie takes the mount and has shown he can handle these pace scenarios at Finger Lakes. With a 12% career win rate in a field where most others are in the same range, Sanzio's rating edge is what separates him.

place7Airborne EliteML 6/1

Airborne Elite (7) rates second in this field at 80.98 and is priced at an enticing 6/1 morning line — that's a gap between public perception and our model that we like to exploit. Trainer Timothy Murphy and jockey Michael Davila Jr. are a connected team on this card today, suggesting the barn is at full attention. Tuck this one in underneath Sanzio in your exactas and you could be rewarded handsomely.

show6Raw CourageML 6/1

Raw Courage (6) comes in at 79.25 on the TrackWiz scale with a 6/1 morning line — another horse the public seems to be undervaluing in this field. J.M. Rohena gets the mount for trainer Aadil Khan, and an 11% career win rate in this claiming company is respectable. The top three horses in our ratings are separated by just over 7 points, making the show position a live one for exotics players willing to spread.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field allowance sprint where one horse stands above the pack on our model while one rival boasts an eye-popping win percentage — the tension between rating and raw win rate makes this a compelling handicapping puzzle.

win1Playingon BroadwayML 5/1

Playingon Broadway (1) leads this field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and goes at 5/1 on the morning line — a price that looks generous given the model's confidence. Trainer Jonathan Buckley has been active all day at Finger Lakes, and pairing this horse with Kevin Navarro in a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint is a sharp move. A 12% career win rate is reasonable in allowance company, and Broadway's raw speed and rating edge over the field make this our clear top choice in Race 6.

place4Bald KittenML 5/2

Bald Kitten (4) comes in at 67.00 on our model and is the morning line second choice at 5/2 — the public and TrackWiz are reasonably aligned here. Joel Cruz rides for trainer Michael LeCesse, and an average speed figure of 54 is right there with the top horses in this field. As a place play in your exactas, Bald Kitten's strong public backing should keep her honest and near the leaders throughout.

show5Recorded TimeML 7/2

Recorded Time (5) carries a 20% career win rate — one of the better figures in this field — and Steven Fret takes the mount at 7/2 morning line. Trainer Julius Ashley has this one pointed correctly, and a 62.17 rating is good enough to hang around in a six-horse sprint. As a show play and trifecta filler, Recorded Time's win rate history suggests this isn't a horse that fades out of the picture quietly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Race 7 looks like a two-horse battle at the top — Ouster and Grand Commander dominate the ratings in this claiming mile, but the real question is whether the 8/5 favorite can be beaten at short odds.

win2OusterML 8/5

Ouster (2) is the class of this field, full stop — an 89.12 TrackWiz rating leads all horses on today's card and pairs with a remarkable 31% career win rate. Trainer Jonathan Buckley sends this one out at 8/5, and while that's a short price, the data backs it up emphatically. Kevin Navarro in the irons is a quality booking, and at a flat mile on dirt, Ouster's superior rating and win rate make this one of our most confident plays of the day.

place5Grand CommanderML 5/2

Grand Commander (5) is no slouch — an 85.31 rating and a 21% career win rate make this a legitimate contender at 5/2. Timothy Murphy's barn has been sharp throughout this card, and Michael Davila Jr. continues his busy afternoon with a live mount. In a two-horse race at the top, Grand Commander is the natural exacta play underneath Ouster — if there's an upset brewing, it starts here.

show1Hey TobyML 7/2

Hey Toby (1) brings a 21% career win rate — matching Grand Commander — and rates 74.69 on our model, a notable step below the top two but well clear of the remaining three horses. Trainer Gregory Charlerie keeps this one competitive in claiming company, and Andre Worrie gets the nod from the rail. As a show play and trifecta anchor, Hey Toby's winning pedigree at this level gives us confidence the rail post won't be a detriment.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:18 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A seven-horse allowance sprint going 5.5 furlongs where our top pick goes off at an overlay price — this race has the feel of a sneaky-good value race hiding behind a misleading morning line.

win7ClarividenteML 6/1

Clarividente (7) tops our TrackWiz model at 82.71 and is sitting at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a significant gap between public perception and our analysis. Trainer Luis Gutierrez sends this one out with Nazario Alvarado aboard, and a 12% career win rate in allowance company is a respectable baseline. When a horse leads the field in ratings by nearly 10 points and is getting off at 6/1, that's where TrackWiz subscribers find real long-term value. Circle this one.

place3BelloroML 7/2

Belloro (3) comes in at 77.86 on our model and rates as the second-best horse in this field, right behind our top pick. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart — a sharp conditioner with connections to success at multiple levels — gives this horse a credible shot, and Andre Worrie is a capable pilot in short sprints. At 7/2, Belloro is a natural place play in your exacta underneath Clarividente.

show1Three Nines FineML 3/1

Three Nines Fine (1) is the morning line favorite at 3/1 with a 73.07 rating and an 18% career win rate — the public likes this horse more than our model does, but that's not a reason to leave it off tickets entirely. Kevin Navarro gets the rail post for Jonathan Buckley's barn, and when a trainer/jockey combo this sharp is paired together, you don't fade them completely. Solid show inclusion, especially if you're playing trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 9

4:47 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The finale at Finger Lakes is a claiming sprint at six furlongs where our top pick is a significant overlay — the morning line has this horse at 8/1 despite our model rating it the best horse in the field, which is exactly the kind of closer-to-the-card value play we love.

win1Winston DML 8/1

Winston D (1) leads this eight-horse field with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating and goes off at a juicy 8/1 morning line — that's our biggest overlay of the card. A 16% career win rate is strong for a claiming sprinter, and trainer Rachel Sells clearly has this horse in form. Luis Perez gets the rail post, and from the inside in a six-furlong dirt sprint, Winston D has every opportunity to be up close early and hold on. This is our top value play of the evening.

place8RacerxML 3/1

Racerx (8) rates 71.61 on our model and is the morning line co-second choice at 3/1 — the public and TrackWiz are reasonably aligned that this is one of the better horses in the field. Kevin Navarro makes yet another appearance on the card, giving trainer Jonathan Buckley a strong chance to end the day on a high note. A 16% career win rate matches Winston D's history, and Racerx's place position in our analysis is a confident one for exacta plays.

show2ShellacML 5/2

Shellac (2) is the public's morning line favorite at 5/2 with a 16% career win rate — a consistent performer in this kind of claiming spot. Trainer Dana Saul has been active today with Jose Baez aboard, and the barn clearly has horses ready to run. While our model slots Shellac third behind our top two, a 63.44 rating is nothing to dismiss in a six-furlong field, and the public's confidence makes this a safe show play to round out your trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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A crisp fall afternoon at Finger Lakes with nine races on a fast dirt surface — it's a workable card with clear standouts and a few enticing longshot angles scattered throughout. Start with Constant Chaos, My Devine One, and Saratoga Banker in the free races, then let Ouster anchor your premium selections. The full card breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket recommendations are all waiting for subscribers — check out TrackWiz Premium and make the most of your afternoon at the track. Good luck out there.

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