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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — September 7, 2026

September 7, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

Labor Day weekend winds down at Finger Lakes with a crisp 8-race card this Sunday afternoon. At 72°F and partly cloudy, conditions are about as close to ideal as upstate New York gets in September — the kind of weather that keeps times honest and form lines clean. No weather excuses today; the best horse should win.

The card is a nice mix of claiming battles, maiden sprints, allowance tests, and a stakes feature to close the afternoon out right. Dirt is the surface all day, so pace scenario and class assessment are going to do the heavy lifting in your handicapping.

TrackWiz has you covered across all 8 races. Three races are fully open to all readers, with our top picks and ratings for Races 1, 2, and 3 available right now. The full card — including the stakes in Race 7 — is waiting for subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

One horse stands well clear on our ratings in this mile claiming opener, but the morning line suggests the public will keep her honest — making the exotics very playable around a clear top pick.

win4Esther's SaladML 5/2

Esther's Salad is the class of this field by a wide margin, posting an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that towers over her closest rival by nearly 20 points. Luis E. Perez gets the call, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the market agrees she's the one to beat. Her 10% career win rate is modest, but the rating profile says her best efforts are on another level from this group. Trainer Rachel Sells puts her in a spot where she should be able to dominate if she runs back to form.

place3Jayce and LiamML 7/2

Jayce and Liam checks in as our place pick with a solid 69.17 rating, second-best in the field, and trainer Chris J. Englehart has a strong reputation for placing horses competitively at this level. The 7/2 morning line offers a touch of value for a horse that figures to be in the mix through the stretch of this one-mile trip.

show2TroublerML 4/1

Troubler brings the best career win percentage in the field at 22%, which tells you this horse knows how to finish the job. Jose Baez keeps the mount, and at 4/1 he's a legitimate show contender whose consistency makes him a solid exotic include.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint where a heavily-favored standout looms large, but a pair of interesting rivals could make the exacta and trifecta well worth constructing.

win6Always PackenML 7/5

Always Packen comes in as the morning-line favorite at 7/5 and backs that up with the field's top TrackWiz rating of 89.42 — a substantial edge over the competition. Trainer Bruce N. Levine has a reputation for having young horses ready to run, and Keiber J. Coa is a capable hand to have in the irons on debut or early attempts. In a maiden field where none of these horses have broken their maiden yet, a horse who profiles this strongly on our metrics is hard to fade.

place2Start the DayML 7/2

Start the Day draws our place spot with a 71.79 rating — second in the field — and trainer Paul W. Barrow has a starter in this same race (Fines Creek), suggesting he's comfortable at this condition. Jeremias Flores picks up the mount, and at 7/2 there's decent place value if Always Packen ends up taking money down to a short price.

show4Mr. PoolsML 4/1

Mr. Pools is interesting for show at 4/1, showing the field's best average speed figure of 56 among the horses with workout or speed data. Trainer Chris J. Englehart clearly has this one fit, and Andre Shivnarine Worrie gets the ride — a combination that deserves respect in the exotics at a fair price.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This five-and-a-half furlong allowance sprint looks like a two-horse race at the top, with a clear morning-line favorite backed by exceptional ratings — though the fringe players make the underneath spots interesting.

win2Eddie MarieML 3/2

Eddie Marie is an outstanding play at 3/2, posting an 89.27 TrackWiz rating that pairs with an impressive 30% career win rate — the kind of number that tells you this horse is a proven winner, not just a paper tiger. Kevin Navarro gets the call for trainer Jonathan B. Buckley, a sharp barn that consistently delivers. In a five-and-a-half furlong sprint at the allowance level, a horse with this combination of rating and win percentage has every reason to be a short price.

place1Apollonia VitelliML 7/2

Apollonia Vitelli makes sense as a place play at 7/2, drawing on an 11% career win rate and a 66.14 rating that puts her solidly in the mix for the runner-up spot. Trainer Michael A. LeCesse pairs with Keiber J. Coa — who also rode the race's top pick — suggesting strong barn confidence in this horse's short-field ability.

show4Last GloryML 4/1

Last Glory rounds out the ticket at 4/1, and trainer Ralph D'Alessandro is a known quantity at Finger Lakes. With a 52.36 rating and an 11% career win rate, Last Glory won't light the world on fire, but figures to run an honest race and offer show-ticket value in a compact five-horse field.

Our three free previews today center on a pair of sprints and a one-mile claiming test. Esther's Salad opens the card in Race 1 carrying an 87.81 TrackWiz rating in a mile claiming event — a solid opener to get your day started on the right foot. In Race 2, Always Packen draws attention as the morning-line favorite at 7/5 in a maiden special weight sprint, backed by our highest rating among the free picks at 89.42. Then in Race 3, Eddie Marie comes in at 3/2 on the morning line in an allowance sprint, rated 89.27 — a tight battle at the top for the best-rated free selection of the card.

With a firm, consistent dirt surface expected all afternoon, early speed and pace efficiency are the throughlines connecting all three of these picks. Keep an eye on post position and how the pace shapes up in each sprint — on a day like today, front-runners with tactical speed have every reason to be dangerous.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The Starter Optional Claiming mile-and-seventy-yards shapes up as a pace-dependent battle where two horses from the same barn hold a rating edge — and how they're managed in the race could dictate the outcome.

win5PassionedML 5/2

Passioned sits atop our leaderboard with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 26% career win rate — one of the stronger win percentage figures in today's field. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro also sends out Zeebear, but it's Passioned who gets Keiber J. Coa, which in a two-horse barn situation typically signals the stable's main hope. At 5/2 on the morning line, the market respects what this horse brings to a route distance.

place4OlazabalML 3/1

Olazabal comes into this race with a 28% career win rate — highest in the field — and a 78.78 rating that makes him a legitimate threat to beat our top pick outright. Jeremias Flores takes the mount for trainer Rachel Sells, and at 3/1 there's real place value here if Passioned gets into trouble or the distance proves a stride too long.

show7ZeebearML 7/2

Zeebear is the third-highest-rated horse at 73.68 and carries a solid 22% career win rate, suggesting this horse rarely embarrasses. Running for the same barn as Passioned under Luis E. Perez, Zeebear at 7/2 gives you a hedge on the Ferraro operation and rounds out a logical exacta or trifecta construction.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden special weight six-furlong sprint is a wide-open first-time-starter or lightly-raced affair — our top two picks are separated by barely a point, setting up a potential photo and a juicy exacta.

win7EnterprisinglyML 7/2

Enterprisingly gets our top nod at 7/2 with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 52 average speed figure that shows she's been working with purpose. Trainer Jonathan B. Buckley puts Kevin Navarro up, a pairing we already liked in Race 3 today — and Buckley's barn has clearly been productive on this card. In a wide-open maiden sprint, a horse this well-prepared by a sharp trainer at fair odds is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis is designed to uncover.

place5Lookie HereML 4/1

Lookie Here is razor-close at 85.08 on our ratings and draws Keiber J. Coa for trainer Bruce N. Levine — same trainer/jockey combo we're backing in Race 2. At 4/1, this filly has every right to be right there at the wire, and the narrow gap between her and Enterprisingly means the exacta either way is well worth playing.

show4AmesML 3/1

Ames at 3/1 checks in with a 55.21 rating and a 50 average speed figure, which is modest but not disqualifying in a field where several horses show no speed data at all. Reylu Gutierrez takes the mount for trainer Chad Summers, and as the morning-line third choice, Ames provides a logical show anchor for anyone building out a trifecta.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

An allowance mile where Seams Like Destiny stands out on ratings but faces a competitive mid-pack, and the fifth choice on the morning line could offer some sneaky exacta value underneath.

win4Seams Like DestinyML 2/1

Seams Like Destiny packs an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — comfortably the best in this seven-horse allowance field — alongside a 20% career win rate and a 2/1 morning line that confirms public respect. Trainer Troy Smith gets Reylu Gutierrez in the irons, and at a mile on the dirt, a horse rated this highly with legitimate class credentials should be pressing the pace or sitting just off it in a spot that sets up well. The rating gap between Seams Like Destiny and the rest of the field is notable enough that we're comfortable making her our best bet of this race.

place2Big RichML 5/1

Big Rich at 5/1 is intriguing for underneath spots — a 59.31 rating paired with a 14% career win rate and trainer Timothy P. Murphy, who has horses ready to fire here. Emanuel De Diego rides, and at a price where Big Rich could easily be overlooked by casual bettors focused on the chalk, there's legitimate place value if the favorite draws a wide trip.

show6Brown Don't StopML 5/2

Brown Don't Stop draws the 5/2 morning line as third choice, carrying a 58.24 rating and a 14% career win rate similar to Big Rich but going postward as a shorter price. Trainer Michelle Tasso saddles Joel Cruz, and while the speed figure of 50 is on the lower end, this horse is clearly well-regarded by the oddsmakers and merits show consideration in a race where the top two choices could fight it out.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

The stakes race on the card is loaded with intriguing angles — a morning-line favorite with elite win rates, a TrackWiz top pick at a slight overlay, and a 50% career winner who could upset at a price.

win4IntentiousML 3/1

Intentious is our top pick at 3/1 with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 30% career win rate — exceptional numbers for a six-furlong stakes at Finger Lakes. Trainer Jonathan B. Buckley has already sent out competitive horses today, and Kevin Navarro continues his strong presence on the card. With a speed figure of 55 — tied for second best in the field — Intentious looks like a horse peaking at the right moment in the right race.

place2Majestic ReturnML 4/1

Majestic Return at 4/1 brings a 69.94 rating, a 55 speed figure, and a 16% career win rate for trainer Ralph D'Alessandro. Andre Shivnarine Worrie gets the mount, and this horse represents solid value for the place spot in a race where the top two choices on our sheet could easily run 1-2 in either order.

show7Sunday GirlML 2/1

Sunday Girl is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and carries a striking 43% career win rate alongside the field's top speed figure of 56. Trainer David P. Duggan keeps Katie Davis aboard, and while our ratings slot her third behind Intentious, a horse who wins nearly half her career starts is never something you want to leave off a trifecta ticket in a six-horse stakes.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The finale is a five-and-a-half furlong claiming sprint with a pair of horses who hold a clear rating edge over the rest — but at prices that could drift, there's real exotic potential in this field.

win5Sultan the GreatML 7/2

Sultan the Great lands at the top of our leaderboard with an 86.35 rating, the field's best speed figure of 56, and a 22% career win rate. Trainer Ilmar Loaiza sends Steven Fret out on a horse who profiles as a natural front-runner or pace presser in a five-and-a-half furlong sprint — a distance where his speed figure advantage could prove decisive. At 7/2 on the morning line, Sultan the Great represents the kind of value-meets-merit combination that makes for a confident closing-race play.

place4Father WalshML 3/1

Father Walsh at 3/1 puts up an 81.05 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win rate under trainer Michael T. Sabine and jockey Chris Russell. The rating gap between Father Walsh and Sultan the Great is real but not enormous, and at a price where he'll likely offer some place value, he's the logical safety play for anyone looking to structure a legitimate exacta.

show7Bustino SantinoML 4/1

Bustino Santino rounds out our ticket at 4/1 with a 71.36 rating and a 12% career win rate. Trainer Paul W. Barrow has been active throughout today's card, and Jeremias Flores gets the mount on a horse whose rating puts him clearly above the bottom half of this field. In a sprint where pace can shuffle the order, Bustino Santino is a sensible show anchor and trifecta piece.

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It's a clean, well-structured card at Finger Lakes today with great conditions and a genuine stakes race to anchor the afternoon. Always Packen and Eddie Marie headline our free selections, while Intentious is the name to watch in the Race 7 stakes for subscribers. Dig into the free previews now, and if you want the full picture before post time, the complete analysis is one click away at TrackWiz premium. Good luck at the windows.

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