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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — July 29, 2026

July 29, 20269 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

It's a wet one at Finger Lakes today. Rain is falling and the temperature is sitting at 67°F, which means we're likely looking at a sloppy or muddy dirt surface all afternoon. If you've been around the track long enough, you know that changes everything — pace scenarios shift, speed figures lose some context, and horses with prior wet-track form suddenly jump off the page.

We've got a 9-race card to work through, ranging from maiden claimers going short to a pair of allowance tests that should draw the classiest runners on the grounds. Three of those races are broken down in full for every TrackWiz reader, and our premium subscribers get the complete picture — all nine races, exotic plays included.

Today's card has some genuine intrigue. A couple of our top-rated picks are sitting at prices that suggest the morning-line oddsmakers aren't giving them full credit, and in a sloppy-track environment, a little edge goes a long way. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:55 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A clear class standout emerges in this Starter Optional Claiming mile, but a seasoned second option with elite win numbers makes the exacta genuinely interesting.

win3PassionedML 3/1

Passioned tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 in this field and backs it up with a 24% career win rate — well above the field average. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro puts Keiber J. Coa aboard, a sharp rider-trainer partnership worth noting at a route distance like 1 1/16 miles where pace management matters. The rating gap between Passioned and the rest of the field is substantial enough that barring a pace collapse or wide trip, this one should be sitting pretty in the stretch.

place6OlazabalML 2/1

Olazabal brings the field's best career win percentage at 29% — a number that suggests this horse knows how to find the wire. The 2/1 morning line makes Olazabal the public's choice, and while our model has Passioned ranked higher, Olazabal's consistency profile makes it an obvious place bet anchor. Trainer Rachel Sells has a live runner here.

show1Expensive CutML 5/2

Expensive Cut draws the rail and gets Reylu Gutierrez in the irons — a rider who can take advantage of the inside trip over a mile plus. The 66.29 TrackWiz rating won't win this race outright, but a 14% career win rate and a clean inside post in a small field keeps this one squarely in the exotic conversation.

Race 2

5:24 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers with zero wins across the board — but a significant ratings gap points to a potential wire-to-wire favorite, with two closers lurking underneath.

win3Hamilton's ReasonML EVN

Hamilton's Reason is the morning line favorite at even money and justifies that price with a field-best TrackWiz rating of 90.0 — the highest in today's entire card. The avg speed figure of 54 edges most rivals, and trainer Richard Shaffer sends this one out with Oscar Gomez, a capable pilot in the short field. In a six-horse maiden claimer at six furlongs, a horse with this kind of rating advantage deserves to be bet with confidence.

place1Im GunnaML 3/1

Im Gunna is right on Hamilton's Reason's heels with an 84.51 rating and matches several rivals on the 52 avg speed figure. Reylu Gutierrez climbs aboard for trainer Troy Smith, and at 3/1 on the morning line there's legitimate upside if the favorite gets into early trouble. This is the logical place horse in the race.

show2Runaway RoscoeML 4/1

Runaway Roscoe slots in third in our ratings at 83.05, matching Im Gunna on the 52 speed figure and drawing Andre Shivnarine Worrie for trainer Chris J. Englehart. The 4/1 morning line is fair value for a show ticket — if the top two combine for a pace duel, Runaway Roscoe could be the one who benefits most in the late stages of this sprint.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Jessica's Ride carries a dominant rating advantage into a wide-open claiming sprint, but Lollipops and Pencima give the place exotics some teeth.

win6Jessica's RideML 5/2

Jessica's Ride owns an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — nearly 24 points clear of Lollipops, who rates second. That kind of gap in a claiming sprint at 5½ furlongs is hard to ignore, and trainer Jonathan B. Buckley puts Kevin Navarro up, which is a solid jockey booking. The 5/2 morning line means the public isn't sleeping on this one, but the numbers still support making it the race's top selection.

place2LollipopsML 2/1

Lollipops is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and rates second in the field at 63.74, backed by a 16% career win rate and the field's best avg speed figure at 54. Trainer John A. Grabowski and jockey Luis Pena represent an uncomplicated win contender who should be right there turning for home. The value here is using Lollipops underneath to build out exacta combinations.

show5PencimaML 5/1

Pencima is an interesting third option at 5/1 on the morning line with a 51.57 rating and 11% career win rate that's respectable in this claiming company. Trainer Assaf Ronen's runner has enough early juice to be competitive in this sprint distance, and the price is right for a show ticket or a underneath piece in a trifecta.

Our three free best bets cover the first half of the card — a Starter Optional Claiming route, a Maiden Claiming sprint, and a short Claiming dash. Passioned opens things up in Race 1 at 3/1 going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, and our TrackWiz rating of 87 makes this morning line look generous. In a route race on a wet track, pace can compress and closers sometimes get caught out — we'll detail exactly how Passioned fits into the pace picture. Hamilton's Reason comes back as the even-money morning-line choice in Race 2, and with a TrackWiz rating of 90 — the highest of any free pick today — this is the horse that jumps out as a potential anchor for your early multi-race wagers. Race 3 brings Jessica's Ride at 5/2 in a 5½-furlong claiming sprint, a distance where wet-track ability and early speed can be decisive.

The common thread across these three? All three races are contested on the dirt, all three are in the shorter-to-mid distance range where early fractions will be impacted by the rain, and all three top picks are priced at odds that suggest there's real value to be had rather than just blindly following chalk. Wet tracks at smaller circuits like Finger Lakes can mask true class differences, so we're keying on horses whose profiles hold up under those conditions.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Trainer Dana Saul saddles two of the three top-rated horses in this six-furlong claimer, setting up a potential exacta in-house, with Emerald Forest as the main spoiler.

win3Sutton BreezeML 2/1

Sutton Breeze leads the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and sports an impressive 31% career win rate — a figure that says this horse finishes what it starts. Trainer Dana Saul puts Jose Baez up, and with a 55 avg speed figure shared with several rivals, the class edge here is that win percentage and overall rating. At 2/1, this is a legitimate play to win.

place4Emerald ForestML 5/2

Emerald Forest rates second in the field at 81.29 with a 24% career win rate and also posts a 55 avg speed figure. Andre Shivnarine Worrie takes the mount for trainer Charlton Baker — a combo that gives this one tactical versatility. At 5/2, Emerald Forest is the most natural place horse in the race and could steal the whole thing if Sutton Breeze doesn't fire.

show1NutsieML 9/2

Nutsie draws the rail with a 71.85 TrackWiz rating, a 21% career win rate, and the field's top avg speed figure at 55 — tied with Sutton Breeze, Emerald Forest, and Fighter Kite. Nazario Alvarado takes the mount for trainer Ilmar Loaiza, and that inside post in a six-furlong sprint can be a real advantage when the gate opens. At 9/2 on the morning line, Nutsie makes for a smart show play and trifecta inclusion.

Race 5

6:51 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A full maiden special weight field of first-time and lightly raced runners creates real chaos — Klum has the edge on our model but price-hunters have multiple angles to work.

win7KlumML 6/1

Klum tops our TrackWiz ratings in this wide-open MSW field at 66.53 despite carrying a 6/1 morning line — that gap between rating and price is what makes this horse the value play on top. Trainer Paul W. Barrow sends Klum out with a 54 avg speed figure, and in a field where no horse has ever broken their maiden, small edges in raw numbers matter. Oscar Gomez takes the call and should be able to put Klum in a good spot early in this 5½-furlong sprint.

place5Tremendous BeeML 5/2

Tremendous Bee is the second choice at 5/2 on the morning line with a 57.50 rating and a matching 54 avg speed figure. Trainer Miguel Clement's runner gets Cesar Gonzalez aboard, and the public clearly respects this one. As the likely pace-pressing type in a contentious maiden field, Tremendous Bee should be hanging around in the stretch.

show10Lookie HereML 4/1

Lookie Here draws the 10-post with a 54.89 rating and a 53 avg speed figure, with Reylu Gutierrez in the irons for trainer Bruce N. Levine — a New York-based barn that's a tick above the typical Finger Lakes shipper. At 4/1, Lookie Here has enough to carve out a show placing and could outrun the morning line if Levine sent this one to the Finger Lakes for a spot start.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse allowance optional claiming field loaded with speed figures clustered at 55 makes this the toughest puzzle on the card — Scocciatore leads our model but the price tells a story.

win1ScocciatoreML 9/2

Scocciatore tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 with a 26% career win rate and a 55 avg speed figure, and trainer Jonathan B. Buckley doubles up today with Kevin Navarro in the irons. Buckley is a trainer who knows how to have horses ready at Finger Lakes, and Navarro's presence here is a meaningful booking. The 9/2 morning line actually offers a touch of value given the rating advantage Scocciatore holds over this large field.

place8Squire CreekML 5/1

Squire Creek is our place pick and the most intriguing number in the race — the only horse in the field posting a 56 avg speed figure, which is a genuine edge in a race where most of the field is bunched at 55. Trainer Amy Albright sends Luis E. Perez up, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's real place value here if Squire Creek can track a contested pace and pounce.

show7CanyouhearmerunninML 10/1

Canyouhearmerunnin rates third in the field at 70.31 with a 26% career win rate that matches Scocciatore's — this horse has proven it can win. Trainer Dana Saul, who's had a strong presence on today's card, puts Jose Baez up in what looks like a live longshot situation. The 10/1 morning line makes this an excellent trifecta play and a potential overlay.

Race 7

7:49 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A competitive six-furlong claiming battle features three horses rated within two points of each other at the top — pace setup and positioning will decide this one.

win3Tale of the TailML 4/1

Tale of the Tail leads our TrackWiz ratings at 81.44 with Jeremias Flores aboard for trainer Paul W. Barrow — and the 4/1 morning line is solid value for the top-rated horse in the race. A 21% career win rate is right in line with the class of this claimer, and the 54 avg speed figure is exactly where you want to be in this distance. With Flores capable of stalking a hot pace and pouncing in the stretch, this is a straightforward top selection.

place4Bayou MelodyML 8/1

Bayou Melody rates a close second at 79.79 with the field's best career win percentage at 27% — that number jumps off the page. Trainer Arcadio Lopez puts Emanuel De Diego up, and while the 8/1 morning line on a horse with a 27% win rate smells like value, it's exactly the kind of number that makes this a strong place play. If Tale of the Tail gets caught up in a pace duel, Bayou Melody could be the one running by everyone.

show5Follow Your ArrowML 6/1

Follow Your Arrow sits third in our ratings at 72.97 for trainer Chris J. Englehart, who also saddles Princess Cairo in this race — a barn comfortable navigating a split entry. The 6/1 morning line on a horse with a 21% career win rate and a solid 54 avg speed figure represents fair value for exotic players looking to round out trifectas.

Race 8

8:18 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The best race of the day features three horses rated 82 or higher in an allowance sprint — Stevie Wonderful's eye-popping win percentage and Asleep At Eight's top rating set up a genuine battle.

win4Asleep At EightML 3/1

Asleep At Eight leads the TrackWiz ratings at 85.25 and gets Andre Shivnarine Worrie for trainer Charlton Baker, who has shown up multiple times on today's card. The 3/1 morning line is fair for the ratings leader, and in a six-furlong allowance with this many live horses, being on the right side of the pace scenario is critical. Asleep At Eight's profile as an allowance-caliber runner with a 12% career win rate in tougher company suggests there's upside if conditions set up right.

place7Stevie WonderfulML 5/1

Stevie Wonderful is the horse you can't look away from — a 66% career win rate is a stunning number that demands attention, even in an allowance field this deep. Reylu Gutierrez takes the mount for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and the 5/1 morning line looks like an overlay for a horse who has won two out of every three career starts. The 84.17 rating slots in just behind Asleep At Eight, and any scenario where the favorite hits traffic or a bump makes Stevie Wonderful the instant winner.

show5Not for HireML 4/1

Not for Hire rounds out our top three at 82.87 with Kevin Navarro aboard for Jonathan B. Buckley, the same Navarro-Buckley combination that's already in the win column earlier today with Scocciatore. The 4/1 morning line is workable, and a 16% career win rate in allowance company with a 53 avg speed figure suggests this one will be there late. A great trifecta anchor.

Race 9

8:47 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The finale is another maiden special weight sprint at 5½ furlongs — Concrete Kid owns a massive rating edge, but Wingo Starr makes for a fascinating longshot underneath.

win3Concrete KidML 5/2

Concrete Kid dominates this field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the same rating Jessica's Ride posted in Race 3 while looking like a near-certain winner. Trainer Paul W. Barrow, who also runs in Race 8, sends Oscar Gomez up on a horse with a 54 avg speed figure that edges several rivals. The 5/2 morning line is a touch short for a maiden, but the ratings edge here is so pronounced it's hard to argue against making this the final race best bet of the day.

place5Wingo StarrML 10/1

Wingo Starr comes in at 10/1 on the morning line with a 60.41 TrackWiz rating — second best in the field — and that disconnect between price and rating is the core of the value case. Trainer William H. Bartlett's runner gets Jacqueline A. Davis in the irons and shows a 52 avg speed figure that isn't flashy, but in a maiden race where chaos is always a factor, Wingo Starr has enough underlying ability to land a place check at a generous price.

show8Bargain PurchaseML 3/1

Bargain Purchase closes out our ticket at 56.67 rating with Rob Atras training — a name that carries real credibility, as Atras regularly ships to regional tracks with live horses. Andre Shivnarine Worrie gets the mount, and the 3/1 morning line suggests the market sees this one as a legitimate contender. The 53 avg speed figure is solid, and with a respected barn behind it, Bargain Purchase belongs in every trifecta combination.

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Bottom line: on a rainy Wednesday at Finger Lakes, the sharp play is to lean on horses whose credentials hold up in off-track conditions, and our TrackWiz analysis has done exactly that work for you. Hamilton's Reason is the standout free play, Passioned offers route value in the opener, and Jessica's Ride rounds out a solid free card. For the full nine-race breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket strategies, premium subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there — and keep an eye on that track condition as post time approaches.

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