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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — July 27, 2026

July 27, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

This card ran on July 27, 2026.

Best bets at Finger Lakes, July 27, 2026

Race 15Beach InvasionML 2/112:55 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Finger Lakes: our top pick won 11 of 58 races (19%) and finished in the money in 33.

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Finger Lakes is rolling out an 8-race all-dirt card on Monday, July 27, and the weather is about as cooperative as it gets in western New York — partly cloudy and a comfortable 78°F. No rain in the picture means the surface should be consistent all afternoon, which is good news for horses whose best form comes on a fast, predictable track.

The card is a nice mix of conditions — you've got a pair of Allowance routes, a Maiden Special Weight stretching out to 1 1/16 miles, and a cluster of Claiming sprints to close out the day. Translation: there's something here for every kind of bettor, from the route bettors who like to dig into pace scenarios to the sprint specialists who want quick decisions and quick results.

TrackWiz has ratings on all 8 races. The first three are free for everyone — including our top-rated horse of the day, Beta (89.12 TrackWiz rating) in Race 2. The final five races are available to subscribers, and trust us, Race 6 has a longshot angle worth hearing about.

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Race 1

12:55 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro throws a one-two punch in this allowance mile, and the rest of the field will need to find an answer — this looks like a two-horse race with a live longshot lurking.

win5Beach InvasionML 2/1

Beach Invasion is the clear top selection here, posting a dominant TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — nearly 14 points clear of the second-best horse in the field. Trained by M. Anthony Ferraro, who doubles up in this race and clearly has a plan, Beach Invasion carries a 22% career win rate that speaks to genuine class in this company. The 2/1 morning line makes this the deserving favorite, and at a mile and 70 yards, a horse with that kind of consistent form should have every opportunity to get comfortable in the run to the wire. Jockey Keiber J. Coa picks up the mount, a strong booking that signals connections mean business today.

place6Take the GoldML 5/2

Take the Gold is the other Ferraro runner in the race and rates a solid second on our TrackWiz numbers at 74.39. The 5/2 morning line is tight, but a trainer who enters two horses in the same allowance field often uses the lesser-hyped one as a stalking horse — and Take the Gold's average speed figure of 54 is actually the joint-best in the field alongside Savage State. At those odds, the place position is where the real value lies.

show2Savage StateML 6/1

At 6/1 on the morning line, Savage State is the best value play for the exotics. A 62.56 TrackWiz rating might look modest, but that 25% career win rate is the highest in this field — this horse knows how to win when conditions click. Trainer Jacqueline Falk has Savage State pointed right, and at this price, including the #2 in your trifecta underneath makes a lot of sense.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:24 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Beta towers over this claiming field on every meaningful metric, but the intrigue is whether any of the mid-range horses can steal a piece of the exotics at a price.

win3BetaML 8/5

Beta is as close to a standout as you'll find at this level — a TrackWiz rating of 89.12 leads the field by more than 24 points, and that kind of separation is rare in a claiming race. The 8/5 morning line reflects the obvious, but a 21% career win rate backs up the number. Luis E. Perez gets the call for trainer Michael S. Ferraro, and this horse's average speed figure of 52 is in line with the conditions. Barring a bad trip or a stumble out of the gate, Beta looks like the one to beat going a mile and 70 yards.

place4Raw CourageML 3/1

Raw Courage is a logical second choice at 3/1, sitting 25 points behind Beta on our ratings at 64.58 but well clear of the rest. The 12% career win rate isn't flashy, but the horse has consistently shown up at this class level, and trainer Aadil S. Khan appears to have this horse primed for a forward effort. If Beta faces any trouble in running, Raw Courage is positioned to capitalize.

show2Eric From MiamiML 5/1

Eric From Miami at 5/1 is the sneaky show inclusion for exotics players. The 47.13 TrackWiz rating might not light up a scorecard, but trainer Timothy P. Murphy is capable of sending out live horses at a price, and a 7% career win rate at a fair price means this horse pays when he does hit. In a field where the top two are clear, the third slot is wide open, making Eric From Miami a reasonable hedge in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

The free portion of today's card covers the first three races, and they tell an interesting story on their own. Beach Invasion opens the card in a 1-mile Allowance — a route distance where pace dynamics matter, and our analysis likes the setup. Beta is the headliner of the free races, carrying an 89.12 rating into a 1-mile Claiming event and showing up at a morning line of 8/5 — respect from the morning line makers, and TrackWiz agrees. Round out the free three with Shakeitforthebird in the Maiden Special Weight at 1 1/16 miles, going off at 3/1. Maiden races at this distance on dirt can be unpredictable, but this one has a clear standout by the numbers.

On a consistent dirt surface like we're expecting today, horses with reliable early pace or strong late figures tend to hold their form. That's a thread that runs through all three free picks — none of them are fliers, and that's by design. Solid ratings, manageable odds, and a track playing fair. Good foundation for building tickets.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:53 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A maiden special weight full of first-time or lightly-raced horses creates genuine uncertainty — Ferraro's barn controls the top two in the ratings, but at a mile and a sixteenth, pace and fitness can trump early expectations.

win1ShakeitforthebirdML 3/1

Shakeitforthebird tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and draws the rail for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro with Joel Cruz aboard — a sharp combination at this level. In a maiden race where nobody has a win on the board, the ratings gap between Shakeitforthebird and the rest of the field is meaningful. The 3/1 morning line is fair for a horse this well-rated, and Cruz has the experience to get this one into a comfortable position early at the longer maiden distance. This is the top selection with conviction.

place7AlmezML 5/2

Almez checks in just behind at a TrackWiz rating of 83.53, also from the Michael S. Ferraro barn — different Ferraro connections than the win pick, which is worth noting. Keiber J. Coa gets the mount, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market knows this horse is close. An average speed figure of 52 and a solid rating make Almez the clear second choice, and if Shakeitforthebird stumbles at all, this one is ready to pounce.

show2Busy Busy BusyML 6/1

Busy Busy Busy at 6/1 is an intriguing exotics play in an otherwise unpredictable maiden field. The 53.78 TrackWiz rating puts trainer Jonathan B. Buckley's runner clearly ahead of the bottom half of this field, and in a maiden special weight, form can be deceptive — you're often betting on potential as much as past performance. Kevin Navarro takes the mount, and at this price, Busy Busy Busy is worth using in the third slot of your trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

2:22 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A competitive six-furlong claiming sprint with four horses rated between 60 and 86 — the pace scenario will be crucial, and the top two on TrackWiz ratings are separated by only a couple of points.

win8Magic SpinML 4/1

Magic Spin leads our TrackWiz analysis at 85.62 and carries a 16% career win rate, which is solid for this level of claimer. Trainer Amy Albright saddles the horse with Keiber J. Coa aboard — a strong pairing for a six-furlong dirt sprint. The 4/1 morning line offers fair value given the horse's rating separation over the field, and an average speed figure of 53 slots in competitively against the rest of the pace-setters in this sprint. This is our top play in Race 4.

place4Smokin' AloneML 5/1

Smokin' Alone at 5/1 is an intriguing place bet given a TrackWiz rating of 83.16 — only 2.5 points behind the top pick. Oscar Gomez handles the mount for trainer Michael T. Sabine, and the horse's average speed figure of 54 is tied for best in the field. In a six-furlong sprint where early speed matters, Smokin' Alone's figures suggest this horse could be right there at every call. The 5/1 price on a horse this close to the top makes this a strong place contender.

show6Starship TangoML 3/1

Starship Tango rounds out our selections at 3/1 on the morning line, backed by an 18% career win rate — one of the better records in this field. Trainer Arcadio Lopez has the horse pointed for a six-furlong sprint, and an average speed figure of 54 matches the top horses stride for stride. Jacqueline A. Davis takes the mount, and while the 73.94 rating puts Starship Tango third in our rankings, the class record and consistent speed suggest this horse earns a piece regularly.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A ten-horse claiming sprint that's top-heavy on paper but full of pace in the middle — Nightmissio sits atop the ratings, but King Khali and Montauk Surf will keep this honest early.

win1NightmissioML 4/1

Nightmissio is our top pick at 4/1, posting an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field and a number that would be respected in better company than this. Trainer Chris J. Englehart also saddles King Khali in this race, so the barn is clearly confident enough to double up — and Nightmissio draws the rail with J. M. Rohena aboard. A 16% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 put this horse right at the sharp end of the pace scenario going six furlongs. Value is fair here.

place6King KhaliML 5/2

King Khali is the second Englehart runner and our place selection at 5/2 — a 77.04 TrackWiz rating makes this the second-best horse in the field by our measure. The 13% career win rate is workmanlike, and Andre Shivnarine Worrie gets the mount. In a barn that enters two horses, trainers often know which one has more upside on the day, but King Khali's numbers are strong enough to hit the board regardless of the stablemate's performance.

show10Montauk SurfML 7/2

Montauk Surf is a live show contender at 7/2 — the third-best rating in this field at 71.35, with a 12% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 that matches the favorites. Kevin Navarro rides for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and the 7/2 price on a horse this well-rated suggests the market may be slightly undervaluing this one. In a ten-horse sprint, show tickets often pay nicely, and Montauk Surf has the figures to earn one.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An intriguing nine-horse claiming sprint at five and a half furlongs where our top pick is hiding at double-digit odds — the morning line favorite is far from the best horse on numbers, and value players should be paying close attention.

win9Midnight MusumeML 10/1

Midnight Musume is our value play of the race at 10/1 — a TrackWiz rating of 76.88 makes this the top-rated horse in the field, yet the morning line has this runner listed at double-digit odds. That gap between rating and price is exactly the kind of overlay we look for. Trainer Rachel Sells sends out Midnight Musume with Jeremias Flores aboard, and the horse's 10% career win rate combined with an average speed figure of 53 fits perfectly for a five-and-a-half-furlong sprint. If the market wakes up late, this could be a short price at post time.

place2Army ProudML 5/1

Army Proud at 5/1 is our place selection, carrying a 69.32 TrackWiz rating — second-best in the field and solid for this level. Trainer Timothy P. Murphy saddles the horse with Michael A. Davila Jr. aboard, and while a 6% career win rate isn't inspiring, the overall profile suggests a horse capable of hitting the board consistently. At 5/1, Army Proud offers legitimate place value in what looks like a competitive sprint.

show5Ragtime PranksterML 4/1

Ragtime Prankster at 4/1 rounds out our selections with a 67.07 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 54 — the best in the field. Trainer Donna Bireta has this horse well-placed in a five-and-a-half-furlong sprint, and John C. Berrios takes the mount. The 4/1 price and a rating firmly in the top three of this group makes Ragtime Prankster a sensible exotics inclusion, particularly if you're building underneath Midnight Musume.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 7

3:49 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong allowance has an interesting ratings inversion — the morning-line favorite doesn't match the TrackWiz top pick, creating a potential value scenario that sharp bettors will want to explore.

win1Light the MiraML 4/1

Light the Mira tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 despite going off at 4/1 on the morning line — notably, the crowd is being asked to make Angel Gift the 2/1 favorite, a horse rated more than 42 points lower. That's a significant disconnect. Trainer Charlton Baker sends Light the Mira out with Joel Cruz aboard, and a 14% career win rate paired with an average speed figure of 54 fits well at six furlongs on dirt. This is our best play on the card for value at a price.

place6BelloroML 3/1

Belloro at 3/1 is our place pick, rated 68.58 on TrackWiz with a solid 10% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54. Trainer Jeremiah C. Englehart is a respected conditioner, and Reylu Gutierrez takes the mount — a strong booking. If Light the Mira controls the pace scenario early, Belloro has the profile of a horse that can close into the place spot late in a six-furlong allowance.

show2IshkabibbleML 8/1

Ishkabibble at 8/1 is a legitimate exotics inclusion — a TrackWiz rating of 67.17 puts this horse right in the mix of the second tier, and trainer M. Anthony Ferraro rarely enters horses without intent. Kevin Navarro gets the call, and while a 10% career win rate won't wow anyone, the 8/1 price makes Ishkabibble a worthwhile show or trifecta play. In a race where the favorite looks overpriced, the exotic pots can be lucrative if you get the order right.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

4:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a five-and-a-half-furlong claiming sprint where Adjustable Rate stands out clearly on ratings but a deep mid-pack field makes the exacta and trifecta slots genuinely interesting.

win2Adjustable RateML 7/2

Adjustable Rate is our top selection at 7/2, with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — the highest in the field by more than 14 points. The 25% career win rate is exceptional for a claiming horse and suggests this is a horse that converts when competitive. Trainer Jonathan B. Buckley sends out Adjustable Rate with Kevin Navarro aboard, and an average speed figure of 53 is strong for five and a half furlongs. The 7/2 morning line is workable, and this is a horse we'd be comfortable betting with some confidence.

place8T D MageeML 5/1

T D Magee at 5/1 is our place pick — a 72.07 TrackWiz rating that puts this horse comfortably in second place on our numbers, paired with a 15% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54, tied for best in the field. Emanuel De Diego handles the mount for trainer Ralph D'Alessandro, and this combo has shown up at Finger Lakes before. In a race with a clear top selection, T D Magee profiles as the most likely horse to pick up the place at a price.

show5Valentine GiftML 5/2

Valentine Gift at 5/2 rounds out our picks — the third-highest TrackWiz rating at 59.83, backed by an average speed figure of 54 that matches the best in the race. Trainer Timothy P. Murphy saddles the horse with Michael A. Davila Jr. aboard. The 5/2 price is tight for a show pick, but in a sprint where early speed could stack up, Valentine Gift's figures suggest consistent board appearances, and the Murphy barn has been productive at this track.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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Bottom line: Finger Lakes is giving us a clean, fast track and a card with real betting opportunities from wire to wire. Beta is the top-rated horse on the day and a strong anchor for multi-race wagers. Beach Invasion and Shakeitforthebird round out the free plays nicely. For the full breakdown — including that Race 6 longshot and our complete exotic ticket recommendations — subscribers have everything they need waiting for them. Good luck out there, and play smart.

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