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Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — July 21, 2026

July 21, 20268 racesAll Finger Lakes picks

This card ran on July 21, 2026.

Best bets at Finger Lakes, July 21, 2026

Race 12Probably FlatteryML 7/212:55 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Finger Lakes: our top pick won 11 of 58 races (19%) and finished in the money in 33.

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It's a wet one at Finger Lakes today. Rain is falling at post time with temperatures sitting around 79°F, and that means the Dirt is going to be a factor all afternoon. A sloppy or muddy track changes everything — pace scenarios shift, closers can get stuck in slop, and horses that have previously shown they can handle an off track immediately jump to the top of the conversation.

We've got a full 8-race card to work through, ranging from maiden claimers to a straight allowance in Race 7, which shapes up as the class race of the afternoon. Three of those races are open to all TrackWiz readers, and we've got strong opinions on each one. The other five are part of the full premium breakdown for subscribers.

One quick note before we dig in: on a day like today, trust the TrackWiz ratings but keep an eye on late changes in track condition. A track that's listed as "good" at the first post can be full-on sloppy by Race 5. We'll keep our read current throughout the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

TrackWiz's top-rated horse sits off the morning-line favorite in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a potential upset with significant value separation at the top of the card.

win2Probably FlatteryML 7/2

Probably Flattery is our top-rated horse in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — a full 14 points clear of the next contender. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro has Keiber J. Coa in the irons, a capable pairing for a horse that projects to be forwardly placed in a six-panel sprint. Despite a 7% career win rate, the rating gap here is hard to ignore, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's real value if this horse runs to its number.

place5Mr. Sugar DaddyML 5/2

Mr. Sugar Daddy posts a solid 72.03 TrackWiz rating and draws the 5 hole with Oscar Gomez up for trainer Paul W. Barrow. A 9% career win rate is respectable in a field this competitive, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market respects this horse too — making it a logical place anchor in exactas.

show3Connect the BrocksML 6/1

Connect the Brocks at 6/1 is worth including in the exotics at a price. Trainer Paul W. Barrow doubles up in this race (also saddling Mr. Sugar Daddy), and a 61.67 rating gives this horse a real shot at hitting the board even with a modest 2% career win rate. The generous morning line makes it a worthwhile show play or bottom leg in a tri.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:24 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint where nobody has broken their maiden yet — and one horse stands out on our ratings despite sitting off the top of the morning line.

win6Funny ForecastML 4/1

Funny Forecast tops our ratings in this maiden claimer with an 85.62 score, making her the clear class of the field from a TrackWiz perspective even at a 4/1 morning line. Andre Shivnarine Worrie pilots this Charlton Baker trainee, and at six furlongs on dirt, her avg speed figure of 53 is right in line with most of the field. In a race where no horse has won before, the margin between her rating and the competition is meaningful enough to make her our confident top choice.

place3Scarlett QueenML 3/1

Scarlett Queen rates second in the field at 70.08 and draws the rail-adjacent 3 post with Luis Pena aboard for trainer John A. Grabowski. Her 53 avg speed figure matches the top contenders, and at 3/1 on the morning line, she's priced right as a place alternative. If Funny Forecast stumbles out of the gate, Scarlett Queen looks like the most likely beneficiary.

show1She's a GoddessML 5/2

She's a Goddess opens as the morning-line favorite at 5/2 under Keiber J. Coa for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro, and while her 57.50 rating doesn't top the field, public support often tells a story. Her 53 avg speed figure is consistent with the frontrunners, and as the market favorite, she's a safe show inclusion to round out trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free picks today span sprints and a route, giving you a nice cross-section of the card. Probably Flattery (Race 1, 7/2 morning line, TrackWiz rating 86.35) and Esther's Salad (Race 3, 7/2 ML, 86.35) both carry identical top ratings and go at attractive morning-line prices — not chalk, not longshots, just solid value in the middle of the board. In wet conditions, both pace scenarios (sprint in Race 1, route in Race 3) favor horses that can settle early and avoid getting dirt thrown in their face up front. Keep an eye on post position and early pace in each of those races as the card develops.

Race 2 gives us Funny Forecast in a maiden claiming sprint — at 4/1 on the morning line, there's real value here if the TrackWiz rating of 85.62 holds up against a typically thin maiden field. Maiden claimers on an off track can get chaotic, so we like the upside at that price. Tie these three together in a first-half pick-3 and you've got a solid foundation for the day.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves dramatically from the rest of this one-mile dirt claimer on our ratings, creating a potential top-two key situation with a big gap back to the show contenders.

win4Esther's SaladML 7/2

Esther's Salad leads our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and draws post 4 with Luis E. Perez in the irons for trainer Rachel Sells. Her 11% career win rate is solid in the claiming ranks, and while her avg speed figure of 52 is mid-pack, the TrackWiz model sees something beyond raw speed — consistency and class that positions her well at a mile. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's the right price for a horse with this kind of rating advantage.

place5Jessica's RaceML 4/1

Jessica's Race runs almost neck-and-neck on ratings with our top pick at 83.58, making the 4 and 5 posts a logical exacta box. Jeremias Flores rides for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and with a 7% career win rate over routes, she's clearly built for this distance. At 4/1, she's a strong candidate to hit the board and complete a potentially rewarding exacta alongside Esther's Salad.

show2Fashionable KittyML 3/1

Fashionable Kitty at 3/1 sits third in our ratings at 49.24 and offers something the top two don't: market respect. Trainer Ralph D'Alessandro sends out this horse at the second-shortest morning-line price in the field, and the 7% career win rate is in line with the group. She's the logical show anchor and a sensible pick to complete the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:22 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden special weight mile featuring a full field of first-or-limited-out types, where workout patterns and trainer pedigree matter as much as past performance lines.

win3Find Me a PrinceML 3/1

Find Me a Prince posts our top rating in this MSW field at 75.24 with Kevin Navarro in the irons for the reliable Jonathan B. Buckley barn. His avg speed figure of 53 ties for the top mark in the race, and at 3/1 on the morning line, the morning line confirms public respect. In maiden specials, trainer and jockey combinations carry extra weight — and Buckley with Navarro is a productive pairing at Finger Lakes.

place2Hip Hop DancerML 5/2

Hip Hop Dancer rates second at 70.12 and draws the 2 post under J.M. Rohena for trainer Rafael Jose Rohena — the jockey-trainer combination here is literally family, which often means a horse that's been prepped with extra care. His 52 avg speed figure and 5/2 morning-line price suggest the market may actually favor him slightly over our top pick, making him a strong exacta play from the outside-in.

show1Lennie's WayML 7/2

Lennie's Way draws the rail under Reylu Gutierrez for trainer Kenneth G. McPeek — and McPeek is a name that commands attention even in a maiden field at Finger Lakes. No avg speed figure on file means this horse may be making a debut or returning from a gap, which introduces uncertainty, but McPeek horses often arrive ready. At 7/2, the show spot feels right as a hedge on an intriguing unknown.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:51 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep, sprawling eleven-horse sprint where the morning-line chalk doesn't match our top-rated horse — creating a prime value opportunity for bettors willing to trust the numbers over the odds board.

win8Diva BankerML 10/1

Diva Banker is our top-rated horse in this large field at 76.88, yet sits at a generous 10/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect that TrackWiz analysis loves to exploit. Kevin Navarro climbs aboard for trainer David Oyola, and her 13% career win rate is among the better marks in a field full of modestly accomplished runners. With an avg speed figure of 53 that matches the top performers in this race, she looks like the best value on the board today.

place10Dream On CaraML 3/1

Dream On Cara is the morning-line co-favorite at 3/1 and backs that up with a 71.49 TrackWiz rating — making her a logical place play for bettors who want the security of public support. Jose Baez rides for trainer Dana Saul, and a 7% career win rate in sprints shows she's competitive. She's the kind of horse that hits the board regularly at this level, which makes her a reliable place anchor in multi-race wagers.

show1Troubled LuckML 5/1

Troubled Luck opens at 5/1 with Luis E. Perez riding for Michael S. Ferraro and carries a 60.86 rating — third in the field. A 10% career win rate is encouraging, and while her avg speed figure of 51 sits a tick below the top contenders, she's shown she can compete in similar spots. At 5/1, she rounds out a trifecta ticket nicely without breaking the bank.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Two horses are running away from this one-mile claiming field on the ratings sheet, and both sit near each other in the morning line — making the top of the ticket look like a near-mandatory exacta play.

win6Ava's Uncle BillyML 5/2

Ava's Uncle Billy leads the entire field with a 86.90 TrackWiz rating and draws post 6 under Andre Shivnarine Worrie for trainer Chris J. Englehart. Her 13% career win rate over routes is the kind of consistency you want in a one-turn mile, and her avg speed figure of 54 is the highest in the field. At 5/2, she's fairly priced given her dominance on our model, and Englehart is a trainer who knows how to have a horse ready at this level.

place4MercilesanihilatorML 4/1

Mercilesanihilator is right on Ava's Uncle Billy's heels at 85.62 and brings a field-best 20% career win rate to the table — that's a legitimate closer profile that thrives when the pace gets honest at a mile. Jose Baez rides for trainer Dana Saul, and at 4/1, there's value in backing a horse that wins one in five on the career. If the favorite softens up in the lane, this one has the tactical ability to clean up.

show7PropheticML 7/2

Prophetic rates third in the field at 63.17 with Kevin Navarro up for Jonathan B. Buckley — a barn that appears multiple times on today's card with good reason. A 9% career win rate and 52 avg speed figure suggest a horse that competes without dominating, which is all you need from a show selection. At 7/2, Prophetic is a sensible trifecta closer that won't break your ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

3:49 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A tighter-than-usual allowance sprint where our top pick opens at a juicy 5/1 despite carrying the field's highest TrackWiz rating — and a two-horse battle at the top could produce a big exacta price.

win1SpeedstreML 5/1

Speedstre tops this allowance field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and is sitting at 5/1 on the morning line despite being our clear top selection — that's the kind of price discrepancy that makes this race interesting. Joel Cruz rides for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro, and a strong 16% career win rate is the best mark in this field by a comfortable margin. His avg speed figure of 53 is consistent with the top tier here, and in a six-furlong sprint, a horse with that win rate and this rating should be sitting near the top of every ticket.

place6RockinmoneyML 3/1

Rockinmoney rates just a touch below our top pick at 81.87 and comes in as the morning-line favorite at 3/1 under Keiber J. Coa for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro. That's the same barn as our win pick — Ferraro doubles up here, and both horses have strong figures. Rockinmoney's 54 avg speed figure is actually the highest in the race, and at 3/1, the exacta combining the two Ferraro trainees could pay nicely if the public overlooks the barn's depth.

show3Arch's AssaultML 4/1

Arch's Assault draws post 3 at 4/1 under Reylu Gutierrez for Paul W. Barrow and rates third in the field at 56.59. An 11% career win rate in allowance company shows this horse belongs, and the 53 avg speed figure keeps him competitive in the sprint. At 4/1, he's the most logical show play and a reasonable trifecta fill-in if the chalk holds at the top.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:18 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The morning-line favorite goes off at just 2/1 but ranks only third on our model in this one-mile-and-70-yard dirt closer — creating a value gap that could make the exacta and trifecta particularly rewarding.

win2Mad MagicML 5/1

Mad Magic carries our top rating of 84.17 into post 2 under Luis E. Perez for trainer Michael S. Ferraro and opens at 5/1 on the morning line — well above what our model suggests is appropriate given the field. His 18% career win rate is the best in the race and stands out in a claiming route where consistency separates the contenders. With an avg speed figure of 52 matching the field average, he's not a bomb — he's a legitimate top selection at a generous price.

place7O P FirecrackerML 3/1

O P Firecracker rates second in the field at 68.78 and draws post 7 under Michael A. Davila Jr. for trainer James S. Acquilano. At 3/1, he's priced right for a place play, and his 10% career win rate over routes is steady. The outside post at this distance can be tricky, but at a mile and 70 yards, there's plenty of time to find a comfortable spot — and this horse looks like a reliable board finisher.

show4Catch the SmokeML 2/1

Catch the Smoke opens as the 2/1 morning-line favorite under Reylu Gutierrez for Robert N. Falcone Jr., and while our model places him third at 62.99, a 16% career win rate commands respect. His 53 avg speed figure is the best in the field, and the market clearly likes him. At short odds, he's best used as a show play or exacta partner rather than a standalone win bet — but he's too competitive to leave off the ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Bottom line for today at Finger Lakes: the rain is the story, and the TrackWiz free picks — Probably Flattery, Funny Forecast, and Esther's Salad — give you a strong foundation through the first three races. For the full 8-race breakdown, pace projections, exotic strategies, and our best longshot angle on Diva Banker, the complete card analysis is waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there — and watch that track condition.

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