Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — July 21, 2026
It's a wet one at Finger Lakes today. Rain is falling at post time with temperatures sitting around 79°F, and that means the Dirt is going to be a factor all afternoon. A sloppy or muddy track changes everything — pace scenarios shift, closers can get stuck in slop, and horses that have previously shown they can handle an off track immediately jump to the top of the conversation.
We've got a full 8-race card to work through, ranging from maiden claimers to a straight allowance in Race 7, which shapes up as the class race of the afternoon. Three of those races are open to all TrackWiz readers, and we've got strong opinions on each one. The other five are part of the full premium breakdown for subscribers.
One quick note before we dig in: on a day like today, trust the TrackWiz ratings but keep an eye on late changes in track condition. A track that's listed as "good" at the first post can be full-on sloppy by Race 5. We'll keep our read current throughout the card.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
TrackWiz's top-rated horse sits off the morning-line favorite in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, setting up a potential upset with significant value separation at the top of the card.
Probably Flattery is our top-rated horse in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — a full 14 points clear of the next contender. Trainer M. Anthony Ferraro has Keiber J. Coa in the irons, a capable pairing for a horse that projects to be forwardly placed in a six-panel sprint. Despite a 7% career win rate, the rating gap here is hard to ignore, and at 7/2 on the morning line, there's real value if this horse runs to its number.
Mr. Sugar Daddy posts a solid 72.03 TrackWiz rating and draws the 5 hole with Oscar Gomez up for trainer Paul W. Barrow. A 9% career win rate is respectable in a field this competitive, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market respects this horse too — making it a logical place anchor in exactas.
Connect the Brocks at 6/1 is worth including in the exotics at a price. Trainer Paul W. Barrow doubles up in this race (also saddling Mr. Sugar Daddy), and a 61.67 rating gives this horse a real shot at hitting the board even with a modest 2% career win rate. The generous morning line makes it a worthwhile show play or bottom leg in a tri.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden claiming sprint where nobody has broken their maiden yet — and one horse stands out on our ratings despite sitting off the top of the morning line.
Funny Forecast tops our ratings in this maiden claimer with an 85.62 score, making her the clear class of the field from a TrackWiz perspective even at a 4/1 morning line. Andre Shivnarine Worrie pilots this Charlton Baker trainee, and at six furlongs on dirt, her avg speed figure of 53 is right in line with most of the field. In a race where no horse has won before, the margin between her rating and the competition is meaningful enough to make her our confident top choice.
Scarlett Queen rates second in the field at 70.08 and draws the rail-adjacent 3 post with Luis Pena aboard for trainer John A. Grabowski. Her 53 avg speed figure matches the top contenders, and at 3/1 on the morning line, she's priced right as a place alternative. If Funny Forecast stumbles out of the gate, Scarlett Queen looks like the most likely beneficiary.
She's a Goddess opens as the morning-line favorite at 5/2 under Keiber J. Coa for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro, and while her 57.50 rating doesn't top the field, public support often tells a story. Her 53 avg speed figure is consistent with the frontrunners, and as the market favorite, she's a safe show inclusion to round out trifecta tickets.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Two horses separate themselves dramatically from the rest of this one-mile dirt claimer on our ratings, creating a potential top-two key situation with a big gap back to the show contenders.
Esther's Salad leads our TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and draws post 4 with Luis E. Perez in the irons for trainer Rachel Sells. Her 11% career win rate is solid in the claiming ranks, and while her avg speed figure of 52 is mid-pack, the TrackWiz model sees something beyond raw speed — consistency and class that positions her well at a mile. At 7/2 on the morning line, she's the right price for a horse with this kind of rating advantage.
Jessica's Race runs almost neck-and-neck on ratings with our top pick at 83.58, making the 4 and 5 posts a logical exacta box. Jeremias Flores rides for trainer Paul W. Barrow, and with a 7% career win rate over routes, she's clearly built for this distance. At 4/1, she's a strong candidate to hit the board and complete a potentially rewarding exacta alongside Esther's Salad.
Fashionable Kitty at 3/1 sits third in our ratings at 49.24 and offers something the top two don't: market respect. Trainer Ralph D'Alessandro sends out this horse at the second-shortest morning-line price in the field, and the 7% career win rate is in line with the group. She's the logical show anchor and a sensible pick to complete the trifecta.
Our three free picks today span sprints and a route, giving you a nice cross-section of the card. Probably Flattery (Race 1, 7/2 morning line, TrackWiz rating 86.35) and Esther's Salad (Race 3, 7/2 ML, 86.35) both carry identical top ratings and go at attractive morning-line prices — not chalk, not longshots, just solid value in the middle of the board. In wet conditions, both pace scenarios (sprint in Race 1, route in Race 3) favor horses that can settle early and avoid getting dirt thrown in their face up front. Keep an eye on post position and early pace in each of those races as the card develops.
Race 2 gives us Funny Forecast in a maiden claiming sprint — at 4/1 on the morning line, there's real value here if the TrackWiz rating of 85.62 holds up against a typically thin maiden field. Maiden claimers on an off track can get chaotic, so we like the upside at that price. Tie these three together in a first-half pick-3 and you've got a solid foundation for the day.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line for today at Finger Lakes: the rain is the story, and the TrackWiz free picks — Probably Flattery, Funny Forecast, and Esther's Salad — give you a strong foundation through the first three races. For the full 8-race breakdown, pace projections, exotic strategies, and our best longshot angle on Diva Banker, the complete card analysis is waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck out there — and watch that track condition.