Finger Lakes Picks & Predictions — July 13, 2026
It's a loaded Monday at Finger Lakes — nine races, three of them stakes, and a partly cloudy afternoon sitting right at 83°F. Conditions are about as close to ideal as you'll get up in Farmington, and a fast, consistent dirt surface should reward horses with back-class and proven figures.
Today's card has real range: we're starting with a Starter Optional Claiming mile-and-seventy before building toward a trio of stakes showdowns that give serious bettors plenty to work with. Whether you're playing two races or the full card, there's value hiding in this thing from top to bottom.
TrackWiz has ratings on all nine, with our three free best bet races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — topped by some intriguing morning-line prices and our highest-rated contenders of the day.
Best Bets
Race 1
Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
A Starter Optional Claiming route with a clear class standout at a generous price — Intentious owns the top TrackWiz rating by a wide margin, but the mid-pack contenders are bunched close enough to make the exotics interesting.
Intentious is the horse to beat in this field, and the 6/1 morning line looks like a gift. The TrackWiz rating of 82.71 is the best in the race by eight points, and a 33% career win rate speaks to a horse that consistently hits the board when conditions are right. Kevin Navarro takes the mount, adding a reliable hand in the irons for this distance stretch at 1 mile 70 yards. The combination of top figure, proven win tendency, and a price tag that the morning line underestimates makes this our strongest play of the early card.
Zeebear at 5/1 is a logical place backup with a TrackWiz rating of 74.83 — second best in the field. Trainer James Miller Pettine puts Luis E. Perez up, and a 20% career win percentage gives Zeebear a solid chance to fill a spot even if Intentious does lead the way home.
Passioned draws the 6 post at 7/2 morning line with a 71.5 rating and a solid 25% career win clip — the best win rate among the closer figures in the mid-tier. Keiber J. Coa knows how to position horses in these one-turn routes, and Passioned's consistency makes it a reliable show option in exotics.
Race 2
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Khali's Dream looks like a heavy favorite in the making for this 6-furlong claiming sprint, with a TrackWiz rating that towers over the field — the real question is whether Bustino Santino can mount a credible challenge.
Khali's Dream checks every box here. The 88.54 TrackWiz rating is 14 points clear of the next-best runner, and an average speed figure of 54 ties for the field's top mark. Trainer Chris J. Englehart is a sharp conditioner at this circuit, and jockey Andre Shivnarine Worrie has the local experience to exploit a straightforward pace setup over 6 furlongs. At 2/1, this is a short price, but the numbers justify confidence.
Bustino Santino has a 74.89 rating and goes with Jeremias Flores from the 6 post in a spot where pressing the pace could pay off. Trainer Paul W. Barrow sends this one out at 5/2 — tight enough on the morning line to suggest stable confidence — and the edge in class over the lower-rated half of this field makes a place finish very attainable.
Coach Bahe is the show anchor here at 7/2 with a 55.17 rating and a 19% career win rate that demonstrates a consistent type. Jonathan B. Buckley is a sharp trainer, and Kevin Navarro aboard keeps the quality of the connections high. In a race where the top two look strong, Coach Bahe is a sensible third wheel in any multi-leg exotic.
Race 3
Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt
A stakes field at 1 1/16 miles built around one dominant figure — Venetta's numbers are in a different stratosphere from the rest, though Lifeisbutadream offers a live upset angle at a juicy price.
Venetta is frankly the standout of the entire card's stakes races through the early going. An 88.54 TrackWiz rating, a 66% career win percentage — best in the field by a mile — and a top average speed figure of 55 all point to a horse operating at a higher level than these rivals. Kendrick Carmouche is an accomplished rider who can conserve energy through the first turn and unleash this horse at the top of the stretch. At 2/1 this is manageable chalk, and the raw profile demands respect.
Lifeisbutadream is the most compelling price play in this stakes, going postward at 8/1 despite a 76.82 TrackWiz rating that ranks second in the field. A 33% career win rate for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro's runner suggests there's genuine ability here that the morning line undervalues, and Keiber J. Coa can get a ground-saving trip along the rail from the 2 post.
Careless Whisper brings the credentials of a 50% career win rate and a top-tier 55 average speed figure to match Venetta on raw figures. George Weaver is one of the more respected names in this condition book, and Manuel Franco is a Grade 1-level jockey who doesn't take mounts lightly. At 7/2, this horse is a safe show anchor and a legitimate exacta threat if Venetta stumbles.
The first three races set the tone nicely. Intentious opens the card at 6/1 in the Starter Optional Claiming route — that's a price worth circling given our TrackWiz rating of 82.71, and pace scenarios in longer dirt routes at Finger Lakes have consistently favored closers who can slip through on the rail late. Keep that in mind.
From there, Khali's Dream (2/1) and Venetta (2/1) anchor Races 2 and 3 — both carrying TrackWiz ratings of 88.54, which is as good as anything on today's card outside of Race 7. The 6-furlong claiming sprint in Race 2 sets up as a pace duel that could leave something for Khali's Dream to run down, and the stakes distance of 1 1/16 miles in Race 3 should suit Venetta's style. All three free races are live and worth your attention.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: Finger Lakes is giving us a clean, fast track and a card with real teeth — three stakes, two morning-line favorites with elite TrackWiz ratings, and a 6/1 play in the opener that deserves a hard look. Start with Intentious, Khali's Dream, and Venetta on the free side, and let the premium analysis carry you through the back end. Good luck out there.