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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — October 24, 2026

October 24, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

It's a crisp, comfortable Saturday at Fairmount Park — 70°F and partly cloudy, the kind of afternoon that keeps the dirt track honest and gives us a clean read on speed figures. Eight races on the board, all going six furlongs except for the closing mile-and-70-yard main event in Race 8. Short fields, tight sprints, and a couple of stakes spots in the middle of the card make this one worth your full attention.

TrackWiz analysis has combed through the entire card, and there's some genuine intrigue here. We've got a heavy favorite in Race 1 that looks the part, a 6/1 overlay in Race 3 worth a serious look, and two stakes races — Races 4 and 5 — that should draw the sharpest money of the day. The pace scenario on this tight track sets up to reward early speed, so we'll be tracking post positions and pace shapes closely throughout.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden field where first-time starters dominate and the morning line tells a clear story — Karazest is a heavy chalk, but there's legitimate upside lurking at the middle prices.

win4KarazestML 4/5

Karazest draws a 90 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by a comfortable margin — and comes in as the 4/5 morning line favorite under trainer Scott Becker. In a race full of first-timers with no career wins to separate them, that rating edge is meaningful. Miguel Fernandez gets the call, and Becker's barn is no stranger to sending out ready horses off the break at Fairmount. The pace scenario should set up nicely for a horse carrying this much pre-race buzz.

place3MilaalahML 7/1

Milaalah checks in with a 72.79 rating — second-best in this maiden field — and lands on the 7/1 morning line, which represents solid value if she runs to her upside. Trainer Harry E. Lynch sends her out with Frank Reyes aboard, and her average speed of 53 is the top mark in the field. If Karazest gets all the early money and anyone is looking for a place ticket with some juice, Milaalah is the right pivot.

show7Fancy FeetML 5/1

Fancy Feet at 5/1 is the third-rated horse in the field with a 61.21 score, and trainer Steve Fridley with Cory Orm in the irons is a combination that knows how to get horses placed at this level. Her average speed of 52 is right in the pack, and at the projected odds she offers reasonable show value in a field where the bottom half is bunched with sub-30 ratings. A solid exotics anchor for the bottom of your tickets.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses — Wildwood Ruben and Bernie Lomax — tower over a sprawling 12-horse claiming field, setting up a potential match race at the top with a legitimate value play lurking underneath.

win2Wildwood RubenML 3/2

Wildwood Ruben owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.27 and brings a career win percentage of 25% — one of the stronger marks in this claiming bunch. He's posting an average speed of 54, tied for best in the race, and trainer Scott Becker puts Miguel Fernandez aboard, a sharp jockey-trainer pairing at this level. The 3/2 morning line reflects that the market sees what we see — this horse is the class of the field.

place9Bernie LomaxML 7/5

Bernie Lomax is the other legitimate contender here with an 86.15 rating and a 21% career win rate, posting the same top average speed of 54. Alexander Bendezu is one of the stronger riders on this circuit, and trainer Jessica Jelinski has him primed at 7/5 on the line. If there's a pace duel between these top two, Lomax figures to be right there at the wire — he's a strong place play in any scenario.

show5Idea ManML 6/1

Idea Man at 6/1 provides the show value in this race, backed by a 72.91 rating and an 18% career win percentage — the third-best win rate among the contenders. Trainer Ralph Martinez has him posting an average speed of 53, and with the top two likely drawing most of the action, Idea Man could drift to a price that makes him an excellent show play or exotics piece. Brody Martinez in the irons keeps this one grounded.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The allowance condition surfaces a trio of legitimate contenders clustered tightly in the ratings, while the morning line favorite isn't even our top pick — this one sets up as a great betting race.

win9Ghaaleb's CityML 6/1

Ghaaleb's City earns the top TrackWiz rating in Race 3 at 82.71 despite going off at 6/1 on the morning line — that gap between our number and the public's opinion is exactly where value lives. Trained by Scott Becker and ridden by Victor Santiago, this horse carries a 25% career win rate and an average speed of 55, tied for best in the field. The allowance condition suits a horse at this class ceiling, and the price makes Ghaaleb's City our best play of the race.

place4Tum TapML 3/2

Tum Tap is the morning line favorite at 3/2 and for good reason — a 57% career win percentage is the best in the field by a wide margin, and a 77.35 rating backs up that record. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez sends out Brody Martinez, and with an average speed of 54 in a competitive allowance, this horse is consistent enough to hit the board even on a non-winning day. He's the rock of the place pool.

show1Mama's MemoriesML 3/1

Mama's Memories has the most impressive career win rate alongside Tum Tap at 53%, and her 77.08 rating is nearly identical to the favorite's. Trainer Steve Manley puts E.T. Baird up, and that's a respected combination at this level. At 3/1, she's not a longshot, but she's the safest show bet in the field with that kind of career consistency to lean on.

Our three free best bets cover the opening trio of races, and they paint an interesting picture right out of the gate. Karazest comes in as the morning-line 4/5 chalk in the Race 1 Maiden Special Weight — a big rating of 90 backs up that short price, and on a track playing fair today, top-rated maidens have a strong track record. In Race 2, Wildwood Ruben at 3/2 in the claiming ranks looks like a prime class-fit spot; our model likes him at 89.27 and the claiming conditions suit his profile. Then Race 3 is where the real value lives — Ghaaleb's City opens at 6/1 in an allowance field, and a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 suggests the market may be underselling this one. On a day when conditions are neutral and speed figures translate cleanly, that kind of price discrepancy is exactly the overlay angle we look for.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A stakes race full of lightly raced horses — many with zero career wins on record — where the ratings are compressed and small edges could decide the outcome.

win7GreatwayML 2/1

Greatway tops the TrackWiz ratings in this stakes field at 58.33 and draws the 2/1 morning line, making him the public's top choice in a genuinely open affair. Trainer Michele Boyce sends him out with Julio E. Felix aboard, and an average speed of 53 puts him in the mix pace-wise. In a stakes race where most runners are relatively unexposed, Greatway's edge in our model is the clearest separator we can find.

place3Milly's BowML 5/2

Milly's Bow slots in at 57.5 — just a whisker off Greatway — and goes postward at 5/2 on the morning line under trainer Eddie Essenpreis. Johanis Aranguren gets the mount, and the horse's average speed of 53 matches the field average. With ratings this close at the top, Milly's Bow is a natural place play for anyone wanting to spread their coverage in the exacta.

show5Torchy BlaineML 3/1

Torchy Blaine at 3/1 rounds out our top three with a 56.67 rating and draws trainer Armando Hernandez with Miguel Fernandez in the irons. The compressed ratings across the top four horses in this field mean any of them could land in the show spot, but Torchy Blaine's morning line price offers a slight overlay if she's closer to 4/1 or 5/1 at post. A logical show ticket and exacta bottom.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Stakes · 6 fur · Dirt

A stakes race with a clear TrackWiz standout at the top of the ratings, but the most intriguing storyline is a longshot lurking in the mid-field that could blow up the exacta at a massive price.

win5SculptorML 8/5

Sculptor is the star of this card, posting a dominant 89.12 TrackWiz rating in a stakes field where no other horse cracks 63. Trainer John C. Wainwright sends him out at 8/5 with Julio E. Felix aboard, and an average speed of 53 is right in line with the field's pace. Stakes company doesn't scare this one on paper — when a horse separates himself this decisively in our model, that's the kind of edge worth backing with confidence.

place7Sho DominicML 15/1

Sho Dominic is our longshot play here at 15/1 on the morning line, carrying a 62.88 rating that ranks third in the field — a number that looks undervalued relative to his odds. Trainer Shane Childers sends him out with Harold Joseph Ortega, and an average speed of 53 suggests he can keep pace through the six furlongs. If Sculptor draws all the money and Sho Dominic drifts further, he becomes a legitimate exotic play that could really pay off.

show3Nation's HonorML 7/5

Nation's Honor is a fascinating show play — he enters with a perfect 100% career win rate, though the sample size likely reflects a short record. The 7/5 morning line suggests the public is buying into that unbeaten mark, and a 59.33 rating slots him neatly into the bottom of our top three. Trainer Eddie Essenpreis and jockey Johanis Aranguren keep the operation professional, making Nation's Honor a safe show ticket for bettors looking to hedge.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep 11-horse allowance where the top two in the ratings are going off at opposite ends of the spectrum odds-wise, creating a sharp overlay situation for bettors willing to look past the morning line favorite.

win8W W HotshotML 9/5

W W Hotshot is the class of this allowance field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — clearly the top number in the race — and backs it up with a 45% career win rate that is among the best in the field. Trainer Scott Becker keeps Alexander Bendezu in the irons, and this horse's average speed of 55 ties for the top mark in the race. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse this far ahead of the field in our model.

place10Ravin's RansomML 6/5

Ravin's Ransom is the interesting case here — a 43% career win rate is the second-best in the race, and at 6/5 morning line odds, E.T. Baird's mount under trainer Larry Rivelli will be heavily backed. The 63.99 rating is well off W W Hotshot's number, though, which is why we slot him for place rather than the top spot. He's consistent enough to finish second, and the two-horse show at the top of this field creates a natural exacta.

show4Wildwood SicilianML 20/1

Wildwood Sicilian is the show value play at 20/1 — a 60.26 rating that ranks third in the field, trained by Scott Becker with Victor Santiago up. Her average speed of 56 actually matches the field leaders, which suggests she can run with them physically even if the model gap is real. At projected double-digit odds, she's an excellent lower-leg exotic inclusion and a genuine show play if the chalk disappoints.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A big 12-horse allowance optional claiming field that hides a clear standout in Red Speedo, but the depth of legitimate double-digit-rated horses makes this a prime race for exotic plays.

win2Red SpeedoML 5/2

Red Speedo paces the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 26% career win percentage, going off at 5/2 on the morning line with trainer Charles Davis Jr. and Victor Lara in the irons. An average speed of 55 is tied for best in the race, and in a wide-open allowance optional claiming event, that combination of consistent speed and a top model rating is a strong foundation. This is the kind of horse that figures in virtually every pace scenario.

place7Excellent EmpireML 7/2

Excellent Empire is our place pick with an 80.64 rating and a 30% career win rate — that win percentage is the best among our top picks in this race. Trainer Ralph Martinez sends Brody Martinez out at 7/2, and an average speed of 55 matches the top of the field. He's close enough to Red Speedo in the ratings to run him down on the right trip, making him the natural place and exacta partner.

show6Jimmies Big DayML 4/1

Jimmies Big Day brings a 67.41 rating and a 23% career win rate to the table at 4/1, handled by trainer Steve Manley with E.T. Baird up — a solid combination. An average speed of 54 is right in the pack, and Jimmies Big Day looks like the kind of solid mid-field closer who shows up in the money when the pace up front gets hot. He's the show anchor of our exotics in this race.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The finale goes a route of ground — one mile and 70 yards on the dirt — and the distance shift separates the field, with Chasing Gray owning a clear edge in a deep 12-horse claiming closer.

win4Chasing GrayML 5/2

Chasing Gray tops the TrackWiz model at 87.81 in this race, the same top number we've seen in some of the day's best contenders, and trainer James M. Watkins sends him out with Travis Wales at 5/2 on the morning line. His average speed of 52 is mid-pack, which matters at a route distance where early pace control becomes a strategic factor — horses that don't burn energy up front often find plenty left in the stretch. With an 8% career win rate, he's not a prolific winner, but the model says this is his kind of race.

place8Hunts PromiseML 6/1

Hunts Promise slots in as our place play with a 75.42 rating and an 11% career win rate, going off at 6/1 with trainer Harry E. Lynch and Johanis Aranguren. An average speed of 53 is one of the better marks in the field, and at the route distance, a horse that can maintain that kind of pace figure through a full mile is worth respect. The 6/1 price makes him a genuine value play for the exotics at a track where long prices hit more than you'd expect.

show11Senor RubenML 7/2

Senor Ruben is the show play here — a 61.81 rating backed by a 14% career win rate, going off at 7/2 with trainer Scott Becker and Victor Santiago. His average speed of 51 is among the lower marks for our top picks, but at a route distance where pace dynamics shift, he's not as disadvantaged as that number might suggest on a sprint day. Scott Becker's horses tend to be fit and ready, and the 7/2 morning line keeps him right in the mix.

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Bottom line: Fairmount Park is serving up a clean, fast-track Saturday with legit plays from Race 1 through Race 8. Karazest and Wildwood Ruben are the steady plays up front, and Ghaaleb's City is the free-card value angle we're most excited about. For the full card — both stakes races, the closing mile, and our exotic ticket structures — the complete TrackWiz breakdown is available to subscribers. Good luck out there, and bet smart.

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