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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — October 20, 2026

October 20, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

It's a crisp, clear Tuesday at Fairmount Park — 70 degrees, no clouds, and what looks like a fast, true dirt surface that should reward horses with legitimate early speed. Eight races are on the board today, spanning maiden specials, claimers, and a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming routes that should produce the most competitive betting of the afternoon.

The card has a little something for everyone. You've got a near-chalk in Race 3 that could reshape your bankroll math if you're building multi-race tickets, a pair of value plays in the 6/1 to 8/1 range worth targeting in the openers, and a mile-and-seventy-yard route in Race 4 that our ratings model has flagged as one of the more interesting spots on the whole card. Don't sleep on this one.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open MSW sprint where the morning-line favorite doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating — W W Nolan at 6/1 leads the field on our numbers and could offer real overlay value at the windows.

win6W W NolanML 6/1

W W Nolan (6) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71 — a significant gap over the next cluster of contenders — and checks in at 6/1 on the morning line, which makes this a genuine overlay situation in a maiden field. Victor Santiago gets the call for trainer Scott Becker, and an avg speed figure of 53 is solid for this 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprint. In a race where no horse has a career win to their name, pure ratings separation matters, and W W Nolan has it.

place2Tonys KingdomML 7/5

Tonys Kingdom (2) is the public's choice at 7/5, and while our analysis has him rated second in the field at 59.33, that's a meaningful step below W W Nolan. His avg speed figure of 55 is the best in the race, suggesting he has raw early ability that could keep him in the mix even if he can't hold off our top pick. Miguel Fernandez is a competent pilot for trainer Armando Hernandez, and Tonys Kingdom figures to be right there at the wire for a piece.

show8IfyouneedmecallmeML 5/2

Ifyouneedmecallme (8) slots into our show position with a TrackWiz rating of 57.25 and an avg speed figure of 54, giving trainer Dawn Martin a horse that profiles as a sneaky-solid closer in this maiden field. At 5/2, she'll likely be well-bet, but her ratings edge over the rest of the pack below Tonys Kingdom makes her a logical inclusion in exacta and trifecta tickets. Brody Martinez gives her a capable hand.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong claiming sprint features a pair of horses with nearly identical top TrackWiz ratings — but the real story is a 28% career winner going postward at 8/1, setting up a potential value bomb at the top of the ticket.

win5Lolita JML 8/1

Lolita J (5) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 while sitting at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a combination that gets our attention in any claiming race. Her 28% career win rate is the kind of consistent production that jumps off the page in a field where most runners are in the single digits. Trainer Gabe Retana sends her out with Johanis Aranguren in the irons, a sharp booking, and her avg speed figure of 53 is competitive for this distance. At those odds, she's a genuine value play to win.

place6Lily's HomeML 4/1

Lily's Home (6) carries a 79.15 TrackWiz rating — essentially a dead heat with our top pick on our model — and posts an avg speed figure of 54, a tick better than Lolita J. The concern is a 4% career win rate, which suggests she can get close but has struggled to close the deal. Brody Martinez takes the mount for trainer Gene J. Sandrowski, and at 4/1 she's a logical play to hit the board even if she can't get all the way there.

show8Into Golden RoadML 7/2

Into Golden Road (8) checks in with a 67.58 TrackWiz rating and a morning line of 7/2 for trainer Arthur A. Coontz. Her avg speed figure of 53 is consistent with the top contenders here, and a 10% career win rate is respectable at this level. Alexander Bendezu is one of the more reliable riders in this colony, and Into Golden Road figures to be in the mix through the stretch in what should be a pace-honest race.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

There's a heavy odds-on favorite in this six-furlong claimer, but don't sleep on the hidden value lurking in the show spot — Running Water at 12/1 has a 30% career win rate that deserves a hard look in exacta construction.

win3El PeligroML 2/5

El Peligro (3) is the class of this field by our numbers, rating out at 89.05 — the top mark in the race — and posting the best avg speed figure at 55. At 2/5, you're not going to make your year betting him to win, but he's the anchor of any exotic ticket and the most likely winner. Johanis Aranguren guides him for trainer Dennis Higgins, and at a mile and furlongs — wait, this is six furlongs — his speed figure advantage at the sprint distance should translate directly.

place1Govenor HankML 4/1

Govenor Hank (1) rates out second-best in the field at 85.62 and is the most logical threat to El Peligro on our model. His 20% career win rate and avg speed figure of 54 make him a legitimate contender at 4/1, especially if the heavy favorite encounters any trouble in traffic early. Miguel Fernandez is a solid choice for trainer Steve Manley, and a top-two finish feels well within reach.

show2Running WaterML 12/1

Running Water (2) is the sneaky value angle in this race — a 30% career win rate is genuinely impressive and the highest in the field, suggesting this horse knows how to compete. At 12/1 on the morning line, trainer Brian Cook is getting almost no respect from the oddsmakers despite that win record. A TrackWiz rating of 72.06 and avg speed figure of 54 confirm she belongs on the board, making her a smart inclusion in trifecta tickets.

Our three free races kick off the card and already there's plenty to work with. W W Nolan opens things up in a 5½-furlong Maiden Special Weight going off at 6/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of price that gets our attention when the TrackWiz rating climbs to 82.71. Race 2 brings Lolita J at 8/1 in a six-furlong claimer, and on a clear, fast-playing surface like today's, front-end speed in short sprints tends to hold up well at Fairmount. Then comes El Peligro in Race 3 — rated 89.05, posted at 2/5 — a horse who looks simply outclassing this field. Heavy favorites like this can be tough to build value around solo, but they're essential anchors in exacta and trifecta construction.

The through-line across all three free races: the dirt appears to be playing honest today with no weather interference, so trust your speed figures and don't overthink the pace scenarios in these shorter sprints. Clean trips should mean reliable results.

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Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

This allowance optional claiming route at a mile and 70 yards is essentially a two-horse race on our ratings — Bernin Tune and First Bid are separated by nearly 19 points from the rest of the field, setting up a fascinating pace dynamic between two well-regarded runners.

win6Bernin TuneML 8/5

Bernin Tune (6) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 89.12, the highest mark on today's entire card for a paid race, and is the clear top selection in this spot for trainer Steve Manley. Miguel Fernandez, one of the colony's go-to riders, takes the reins at 8/5 morning line. While his avg speed figure of 52 matches the field average, it's the composite rating — factoring in class, form, and trajectory — that sets him apart, and a 20% career win rate shows he can get the job done consistently.

place1First BidML 6/5

First Bid (1) rates out second in the field at 70.36 and is the morning-line second choice at 6/5 for trainer Pat Clay. A 21% career win rate is actually the best in this field among horses with meaningful starts, and Alexander Bendezu is a capable finisher in route races. If Bernin Tune gets pressured early in this longer trip, First Bid's stamina profile could make him very dangerous at the line — he's a strong play in the exacta.

show4Jack SpratML 8/1

Jack Sprat (4) is an intriguing show option at 8/1 morning line with a 66.29 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field. Trainer Eddie M. Essenpreis ships him in with Reynier Arrieta aboard, and a 16% career win rate suggests he's competitive at this level. At a route distance where pace duals can cook front-runners, a closer like Jack Sprat could inherit a placing if the top two battle themselves into trouble.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A large full field of eleven in this six-furlong claiming sprint creates a tricky pace puzzle — our top selection ships in as a legitimate value play, while two double-digit longshots in the show and place spots offer legitimate upside in the exotics.

win5Color Me FastML 3/1

Color Me Fast (5) leads our TrackWiz analysis at 72.94 and draws a 3/1 morning line that feels fair for the top-rated horse in a big field. Trainer Dawn Martin sends her out with Brody Martinez, and her avg speed figure of 53 is among the best in this eleven-horse field. A 3% career win rate is low, but our ratings model accounts for improving form and pace scenario — and in a race with this much chaos, the horse with the clearest edge on raw ratings deserves the top spot.

place11Classic TiramisuML 10/1

Classic Tiramisu (11) is a live longshot angle at 10/1 morning line for trainer Ben Delong, with a TrackWiz rating of 70.45 that's actually the second-best in the field. Her avg speed figure of 54 is the best among our top three picks, suggesting she can match strides with the pace. A 4% career win rate sounds modest, but Javier Tavares is a savvy hand who can save ground in large fields and find daylight when it counts.

show10Whitelick RoadML 15/1

Whitelick Road (10) rounds out our ticket at 15/1 — another Ben Delong runner, which means the trainer has two live shots in this race. A 69.58 TrackWiz rating slots her third-best in the field, and her 9% career win rate is respectable among this group. At 15/1, she's a pure value inclusion in trifecta plays — if the Delong barn is live with Classic Tiramisu, there's a good chance they're live with Whitelick Road too, and doubling up on a barn can pay dividends in big fields.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint with a genuine pace confrontation brewing — the top two on our ratings come from different stalls, and a 40% career winner lurks in the place spot at a juicy 7/2 on the morning line.

win7ItdontcomeeasyML 7/2

Itdontcomeeasy (7) tops our TrackWiz model at 86.35 and sports a 40% career win rate — a remarkable number that tells you this horse is a seasoned, battle-tested winner at this level. At 7/2 morning line, trainer Scott Becker is getting a shade of value despite the high rating, and Victor Santiago takes the mount. An avg speed figure of 53 is consistent with what this class requires, and the win record alone makes Itdontcomeeasy the most confident selection on the card.

place5GoghML 3/2

Gogh (5) is the morning-line favorite at 3/2 with an 82.38 TrackWiz rating and the highest avg speed figure in the race at 55. Trainer Michele Boyce sends him out with Alexander Bendezu, and an 18% career win rate is steady without being exceptional. Our model has him a step below Itdontcomeeasy, but his raw speed figure edge means if the pace gets honest, Gogh could be running them all down late — he's a must-use in exacta combos.

show2Earl's OutlawML 6/1

Earl's Outlaw (2) brings a 25% career win rate and a 75.36 TrackWiz rating to the table at 6/1 for trainer Gabe Retana. His avg speed figure of 53 is on par with the field, and Javier Tavares is a reliable finisher who can position a horse early and grind to the wire. In an AOC sprint where early pace could burn out the top two, a horse with Earl's Outlaw's experience and win rate is an ideal trifecta closer.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Eleven runners make this late-card six-furlong claimer a full house, and Wild Tapit's dominant TrackWiz rating stands out from a crowded mid-pack — but an intriguing show play at 10/1 with a 23% career win rate adds real exotic depth.

win10Wild TapitML 5/1

Wild Tapit (10) leads the field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — a clear margin over the nearest competitors — and posts a 17% career win rate with a steady avg speed figure of 54. Trainer Ralph Martinez sends him out with Brody Martinez in the irons, a consistent and capable combination. At 5/1 on the morning line, Wild Tapit is not a chalky favorite, and that price makes him a legitimate win play for both the straight-up bettor and exotic players looking to key a single.

place1CantooML 3/1

Cantoo (1) draws the rail and sits second in our ratings at 66.31, with an 11% career win rate for trainer John C. Wainwright. His avg speed figure of 54 ties Wild Tapit at the top, which suggests on raw pace alone he's competitive — the gap comes in overall form and trajectory. Johanis Aranguren navigates the inside post, and in a large field, a horse that can save ground from the gate often outperforms his odds. At 3/1, he's a natural exacta partner with our top selection.

show2Diva Las VegasML 10/1

Diva Las Vegas (2) brings a 23% career win rate to this spot — one of the higher figures in the field — and rates out third on our model at 58.03 for trainer Terry Burdess. Her avg speed figure of 53 is right in the mix, and Alvin Ortiz gives her a competent ride. At 10/1 morning line, a horse with a nearly 1-in-4 win rate is getting overlooked by the market, which is exactly the profile you want in a trifecta show spot.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A twelve-horse maiden claiming sprint to close out the card — wide open on paper, but two horses at the top of our model are separated by a razor-thin margin, while our show selection at 15/1 provides legitimate exotic upside.

win9Dominant CaitlinML 8/1

Dominant Caitlin (9) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 — tied with Elsie's Legacy for the top mark — but gets the nod on the win side at 8/1 morning line, which represents clear value in a large field. Trainer Scott Becker taps Miguel Fernandez for the ride, and that's a quality booking in a race where connections matter. Her avg speed figure of 51 is on the low end of the field, but our overall ratings model points to Dominant Caitlin as the horse most likely to step forward in the stretch.

place12Elsie's LegacyML 6/1

Elsie's Legacy (12) matches Dominant Caitlin's 79.79 TrackWiz rating exactly — it's as close as it gets on our model — and trainer Ralph Martinez sends out Brody Martinez for what figures to be a sharp effort. At 6/1, she's not an overlay, but the rating justifies the confidence. An avg speed figure of 52 puts her a tick above our win pick on raw speed, and in a twelve-horse field, having two horses rated this closely at the top creates a natural exacta wheel.

show4Rather LateML 15/1

Rather Late (4) is the value play of the race at 15/1 morning line, carrying a 59.78 TrackWiz rating — third in this large field and a meaningful step above the rest of the pack below. Trainer Duane Wells goes right back to the well after also running La Rose Blanche in the same race, and Angel Ortega Stanley is a sharp rider who can find a clean trip. Her avg speed figure of 53 is actually better than both our top two picks, making her a fascinating closer angle in a wide-open maiden closer.

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Bottom line: today's Fairmount card is approachable and loaded with angles. El Peligro anchors the free card as the standout rated horse, W W Nolan and Lolita J offer genuine value in the openers, and the premium races deliver the pace complexity and exotic opportunities that make a day at the track truly profitable. Subscribers have the full roadmap — everyone else, enjoy the free picks and let's have a big Tuesday.

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