Unlock the other 5 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — October 17, 2026

October 17, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

It's a beautiful fall afternoon at Fairmount Park — clear skies, temperatures sitting right around 56°F, and a firm dirt surface that should play true all day. Ideal conditions for a full eight-race card, and today's program has a little something for everyone: claiming races to kick things off, a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming spots in the meat of the card, and a Starter Optional Claiming race that shapes up as one of the more competitive bouts on the afternoon.

Three of today's races are available free to all TrackWiz readers, with our top picks covering the early card. If you want the full breakdown — races 4 through 8 — that's where the premium analysis comes in. We've got pace projections, exotic structures, and multi-race wager strategies locked and loaded for subscribers.

Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning line favorite gets outrated badly here — Joyful Ghost's TrackWiz rating of 84 towers over a claiming field that looks wide open behind him, making this race cleaner at the top than the odds suggest.

win4Joyful GhostML 5/1

Joyful Ghost (#4) owns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 — a significant edge over the second-rated horse at 65.28. His average speed figure of 54 ties for best in the field, and at 5/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value attached to what looks like the class of this race. Johanis Aranguren gets the call under trainer John Wiese, and a one-mile dirt trip should suit a horse with this kind of staying power.

place1As One DoesML 6/1

As One Does (#1) is our place play at 6/1, backing up a solid 65.28 rating with a 13% career win rate — respectable in this company. Alexander Bendezu rides for Ben Delong, and the one-mile distance on dirt gives this horse every opportunity to find a comfortable trip and hit the board.

show3Boogie BodeML 9/5

Boogie Bode (#3) is the morning line favorite at 9/5 and carries an 18% career win percentage — the best in this field — making him a natural show include. Even with a TrackWiz rating of 60.72 that trails Joyful Ghost by a wide margin, Alvin Ortiz can keep this horse in contention, and at a mile he figures to last long enough to fill out your exotics.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Three horses are clustered near the top of the TrackWiz ratings — Nightwind, Mystic Power, and Roussette all grading out in the 73-85 range — setting up a competitive top-tier battle over a route that stretches to a mile and 70 yards.

win1NightwindML 9/2

Nightwind (#1) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 despite being priced at 9/2 on the morning line — a clear overlay. Brody Martinez takes the mount for trainer Ralph Martinez, a same-surname duo that often signals a tight working relationship. At 9% career win rate, Nightwind doesn't win often, but the rating says the talent is there, and a route distance over dirt at 1 mile 70 yards may be exactly the setup this horse has been waiting for.

place6Mystic PowerML 7/2

Mystic Power (#6) sits just a tick below Nightwind at 82.73 and is priced identically at 7/2, making this a genuine value play in the place pool. Trainer Steve Manley has a capable horse here, and Miguel Fernandez brings experience to the irons. A 14% career win rate in claiming company suggests a horse that competes consistently without quite breaking through.

show5RoussetteML 7/2

Roussette (#5) rounds out our top three at a 73.42 rating, and trainer James M. Watkins has her at 7/2 with a sterling 18% career win percentage — tops in the field. Frank Reyes picks up the mount and will have every chance to place this horse on the front end if the pace allows, giving her a tactical edge in a field that could get strung out over the added distance.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Governing Party looks like a heavy favorite for good reason in this six-furlong dirt claimer, but King Anthony and Big Walt form a legitimate secondary tier that could make the exotics interesting.

win3Governing PartyML 6/5

Governing Party (#3) is the standout in this field with an 89.71 TrackWiz rating — nearly a 5-point gap over King Anthony in second — and the 6/5 morning line reflects that. Johanis Aranguren handles the mount for trainer Dennis Higgins, and with an average speed figure of 54 and a 11% win rate in what projects as a competitive spot, this horse looks primed to run a big number at six furlongs. When a horse rates this far above the field in a claiming race, you take the short price and move on.

place7King AnthonyML 9/2

King Anthony (#7) is a sneaky strong place play at 9/2 — his 84.90 rating is elite for this field, and his 55 average speed figure is the best in the race. Frank Reyes guides him for trainer Jose G. Rodriguez, and while a 10% career win rate suggests he can be frustrating to root home, landing second in an exacta behind a heavy chalk like Governing Party is a realistic outcome worth targeting.

show6Big WaltML 3/1

Big Walt (#6) shares trainer Jose G. Rodriguez with King Anthony and rates out at 80.27 — third best in the field. His average speed figure of 54 matches the top group, and at 3/1 morning line, he's not a big price, but in a race where the top three horses are clearly separated from the rest of the field, including Big Walt in your show and exotic plays is the practical call.

Our three free races today are all dirt sprints and routes in the claiming ranks, and the pace picture across each of them is worth paying attention to. On a clear, cool day with a track that figures to be consistent from rail to outside, horses with clean early trips and the ability to settle off the pace could have a real edge late in the day. Keep that in mind as you watch the early results — track bias intel from Race 1 and Race 2 can be gold heading into the bigger spots.

The headliner of the free card is Governing Party in Race 3 — a 6-furlong dirt sprint who drew our highest free-race rating at 89.71 and comes in as the 6/5 morning line favorite. That kind of short price demands respect only when the data backs it up, and in this case it does. Joyful Ghost in Race 1 and Nightwind in Race 2 both offer solid value at 5/1 and 9/2 respectively, giving you a nice foundation to build your early Pick 3 around.

Send me tomorrow's free Fairmount Park card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This allowance optional claiming sprint features a dominant top-rated horse at even money, but a pair of high-win-percentage runners underneath create real exacta and trifecta possibilities.

win5IndyvilleML EVN

Indyville (#5) is simply the horse to beat — a 90.00 TrackWiz rating, a 30% career win rate, and a 55 average speed figure represent the best combination of figures in this six-furlong allowance field. Brody Martinez rides for trainer Michele Boyce, and the even-money morning line price is justified. In an AOC spot, class matters, and Indyville brings it in spades.

place6Fever NationML 9/2

Fever Nation (#6) is our value play underneath at 9/2 — his 26% career win rate ties Sawyer Fox for the field's second best, and his 56 average speed figure actually matches the top horses for raw pace. Frank Reyes takes the mount for trainer Kenny Jansen, and a 83.33 rating says this horse belongs in the money even if Indyville controls the race from the front.

show1Rhodiums PrideML 7/2

Rhodiums Pride (#1) rounds out the ticket at 7/2 with a solid 64.38 rating and a 17% career win percentage. Miguel Fernandez brings the mount for trainer Steve Manley, and in a short field of six, the probability of the third-best-rated horse missing the board entirely is low. He's a reliable show anchor in your exotics.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Zee Fire dominates the ratings in this allowance optional claiming route, but the morning line favorite Tapinyourbluejeans at 7/5 presents a genuine ratings vs. public-money narrative worth watching closely.

win1Zee FireML 2/1

Zee Fire (#1) tops our TrackWiz model at 88.54 — a 27-point edge over Tapinyourbluejeans in the ratings despite being 2/1 on the morning line versus 7/5 for the public's favorite. Alexander Bendezu takes over for trainer Maximino Quinonez, and at a mile and 70 yards, pace can be a factor — Zee Fire's profile fits a horse that runs its best in longer routes. A 14% career win rate won't light up the record books, but the model says this horse is significantly underestimated at current odds.

place6SomethintobelievenML 7/2

Somethintobelieven (#6) is an intriguing play at 7/2 — the 67.77 rating ranks third in the field, and the 53 average speed figure keeps him in contact with the pace setters over this route. The 3% career win rate is a red flag for win bettors, but Brody Martinez is a reliable pilot for trainer Robert Pompell, and a horse that rates this well but wins rarely often hits the board without getting all the way home.

show5PontusML 5/1

Pontus (#5) at 5/1 is our show play, checking in at 62.16 in the ratings with a 15% career win percentage under trainer Hugo Rodriguez. Victor Santiago gets the call, and the 53 average speed figure puts this horse in line with the pace scenario at this distance. In a six-horse field with some figure disparities, Pontus is a solid exotic anchor.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Nandina is a legitimate short-price play with a 45% career win rate and the field's top rating, but Chance Taker's eye-popping 60% win percentage makes the underneath half of the exacta one of the more compelling stories on the card tonight.

win2NandinaML 3/2

Nandina (#2) brings a 45% career win rate to a five-and-a-half furlong allowance sprint — that figure alone separates her from the pack in a big way. Her 89.27 TrackWiz rating is the best in the field, and Alexander Bendezu under trainer Scott Becker is a sharp combination. At 3/2 on the morning line, this is a chalk you can feel good about backing.

place3Chance TakerML 9/2

Chance Taker (#3) is the most interesting horse on the board in this race — a 60% career win rate is genuinely elite and suggests a horse that converts at a remarkable clip when spotting the right spot. She rates out at 71.74, comfortably second in the field, and also runs for trainer Scott Becker, giving the barn a powerful 1-2 punch. Victor Santiago rides, and at 9/2, the place price should have real value if Nandina dominates up front.

show6Icy RiverML 9/2

Icy River (#6) rates third in the field at 68.23 with the best average speed figure in the race at 55, giving her the raw pace edge in a sprint. Miguel Fernandez takes the mount for trainer Armando Hernandez, and a 23% career win rate is solid for this class level. She's a natural show play in a race where the top two horses are clearly better but the third slot looks winnable.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A near-dead-heat at the top of the TrackWiz ratings — Goodasiwonswas and Honor Point are separated by just 0.06 points — setting up the most evenly matched top tier on tonight's card.

win4GoodasiwonswasML 3/2

Goodasiwonswas (#4) gets the nod for the top spot with an 88.89 rating and a remarkable 34% career win rate — that's a horse that knows how to finish. Frank Reyes handles the mount for trainer Armando Hernandez in a six-furlong dirt sprint, and the 55 average speed figure ties several rivals but the conversion rate sets this horse apart. At 3/2 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the profile justifies it.

place8Honor PointML 9/5

Honor Point (#8) is almost impossible to separate from Goodasiwonswas on raw figures — 88.83 rating vs. 88.89 — and that 70% career win rate is the most eye-catching number on the card tonight. Alexander Bendezu rides for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez, and at 9/5 morning line, this horse will be heavily wagered. The case for using him in place rather than win comes down to a photo-finish probability with Goodasiwonswas — both horses are live, and the value may actually be spreading them across positions.

show7Sweet La CremaML 6/1

Sweet La Crema (#7) at 6/1 is a sensible show include — the 67.58 rating is a tier below the top two but well ahead of the rest of the field, and a 21% career win rate shows consistent competitiveness. Victor Lara gets the mount for trainer Adrian M. Salazar, and in a race dominated by two powerful horses at the top, something at 6/1 with this rating profile rounding out a trifecta is exactly the kind of value TrackWiz is built to find.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Grace Met Cupid owns the top rating at even money, but this nine-horse claiming sprint at six furlongs has enough depth beneath her to make the underneath positions in exactas and trifectas genuinely interesting.

win6Grace Met CupidML EVN

Grace Met Cupid (#6) tops the field with a 90.00 TrackWiz rating and the even-money morning line says the market agrees. Brody Martinez rides for trainer Ralph Martinez — the same handler-jockey dynamic we highlighted in Race 2 — and a 54 average speed figure is middle-of-the-pack but the overall rating suggests she's been doing things right that don't always show up in raw speed. At 15% career win rate, she doesn't have a gaudy conversion record, but the model has her well clear of the competition.

place3SlinkML 3/1

Slink (#3) is our value play in second at 72.54 — a 21-point gap back from the leader but comfortably ahead of the rest. His 55 average speed figure is tied for best in the race, which matters in a six-furlong sprint where early pace can shape the outcome. Alexander Bendezu rides for trainer Steve Fridley, and at 3/1 morning line, the place price on a horse with clear second-best figures should offer real return.

show7Averyz DayML 10/1

Averyz Day (#7) is the show pick at 10/1 morning line — a 58.88 rating gives him a fighting chance in this field, and a 10% career win rate doesn't tell the whole story when a horse is consistently in the hunt. Johanis Aranguren rides for trainer Harry E. Lynch, and in a big nine-horse field, the trifecta price with Averyz Day underneath two higher-rated horses could deliver a solid return if the pace sets up right.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: today's Fairmount card offers real opportunity across all eight races. Start with Governing Party as the anchor of your free-race tickets, build around Joyful Ghost and Nightwind for the early sequence, and let our premium analysis guide you through the back half of the card where the real exotic money is made. Full pace projections, ticket structures, and trainer angles are waiting for subscribers — check out TrackWiz Premium and make today count. Good luck at the windows.

← All Fairmount Park picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 8 races free