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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — September 12, 2026
It's a picture-perfect late-summer afternoon at Fairmount Park — clear skies, 85 degrees, and a dirt surface that should be playing fast all day. Nine races are on the board, and the TrackWiz team has been grinding the past performances to bring you our best angles from the first post to the finale.
The heat hasn't let up heading into mid-September, and that firm, dry track is going to be a major factor. Expect early speed to get every chance today — horses that can get to the front cheaply and control the pace are going to be tough to run down. Keep that bias in mind whether you're playing exactas or just looking for a win bet.
Today's card mixes maiden specials, claimers, and a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming races that give us some real class-question intrigue. Race 7 — the Starter Allowance at six furlongs — looks like the day's marquee spot with Dundie setting up as our top-rated horse on the card.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
A maiden special weight mile tilt where the morning line and TrackWiz ratings tell two different stories — the public likes Lies N Deception at even money, but our model sees My Last Escapade as the clear class of the field.
My Last Escapade draws the one-hole and carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 — a meaningful gap over the even-money morning line favorite. Trainer Adrian M. Salazar puts Julio E. Felix in the irons, a booking that signals confidence going a route distance of one mile and 70 yards on the Fairmount dirt. The 8/5 morning line suggests the market respects this one too, and with that rating edge, My Last Escapade looks like the horse to beat from the jump.
Lies N Deception opens at even money and posts the field's top average speed figure at 56, which matters in a maiden route where sustained pace is everything. Trainer Gabe Retana sends out Johanis Aranguren, and at even money this one will be heavily backed — but our model slots her just behind My Last Escapade with a 78.75 rating, making her a solid place ticket rather than a confident win bet.
Delong Shot is intriguing as the show pick here at 6/1. Trained by Ben Delong — the horse literally shares the trainer's surname — and ridden by Javier Diego, this one posts the field's best average speed figure at 53 and carries a 62.66 TrackWiz rating that stands third-best in the field. At those odds, including Delong Shot underneath in exactas and trifectas looks like a smart play.
Race 2
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A wide-open six-furlong claiming sprint where the morning line favorite isn't the horse our model likes most — creating a prime overlay situation worth attacking.
Thirsty Natalie is our top play in Race 2 and the definition of an overlay — she opens at 6/1 on the morning line while carrying the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 82.71. Trainer Steve Manley sends her out with Johanis Aranguren up, and her 12% career win rate is right in line with the competitive claiming ranks. In a sprint where pace figures to be contested, a horse with this kind of model edge at a double-digit morning line price is exactly the spot TrackWiz is built to find.
Look N Mighty Fine draws the two-hole, opens at 3/2 as the morning line choice, and backs it up with a 73.5 TrackWiz rating and an 11% career win rate. Julio E. Felix handles the riding duties for trainer James M. Watkins, and with an average speed figure of 53, this one has the early foot to be dangerous in a six-furlong dash. If Thirsty Natalie gets shuffled back early, Look N Mighty Fine could steal this at short odds.
Into Golden Road rounds out the ticket in the show spot and offers some comfort at 5/2. Victor Lara rides for Arthur A. Coontz, and the horse carries a 73.03 rating and an 11% career win mark that mirrors our place pick almost exactly. The average speed of 54 ties for the field's best mark, suggesting this one can handle whatever pace scenario develops.
Race 3
Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt
Two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong maiden sprint, but the morning line has them nearly flipped — setting up a potential value spot on the one we like best.
Eerie's Song tops our model with a 89.12 rating — identical to My Last Escapade's mark in Race 1, which is rare company — and opens at 8/5 on the morning line. Trainer Ralph Martinez keeps the mount in-house with Brody Martinez in the saddle, a family stable connection that often signals a horse ready to fire. The average speed of 54 leads the field and in a six-furlong maiden dash, that early zip could be the difference against a field still searching for that first win.
I'm Thisty Kid is the most interesting fading angle in the race. Trainer Harry E. Lynch books Victor Lara and opens the horse at 7/2, but it's the 75.61 TrackWiz rating that catches the eye — second best in the field by a comfortable margin. The average speed of 52 is a touch off the top horses, suggesting a stalker profile that could benefit if Eerie's Song draws out the speed of Dandy Ruby early.
Dandy Ruby opens as the morning line co-favorite at 9/5 but slots third in our model at 58.67, which is why we're putting her in the show slot rather than on top. Harold Joseph Ortega rides for trainer Scott Becker, and an average speed of 53 means this one won't be embarrassed on pace. For trifecta purposes, Dandy Ruby's public support should keep the price from collapsing too far.
We're opening three races to all TrackWiz readers today, and there's plenty of meat on the bone. My Last Escapade (8/5 morning line) draws the spotlight in the Race 1 opener — a Maiden Special Weight going a route of ground at 1 mile and 70 yards. Route maidens on a speed-favoring track can be tricky, so watch the pace scenario closely. Over in Race 2, we're rolling with a legit longshot angle: Thirsty Natalie at 6/1 in a six-furlong claimer. Our TrackWiz rating of 82.71 suggests she's being underestimated by the oddsmaker — those are exactly the overlays you want to target. Race 3 brings another Maiden Special Weight at six furlongs, where Eerie's Song (8/5) matches My Last Escapade's 89.12 TrackWiz rating. Two MSW top picks at the same figure tells you the maiden ranks are competitive today, so construction of your tickets matters.
The connecting thread across these free races is pace — on a fast, dry Fairmount strip, horses that can establish position early without burning up will have a big edge late. We've factored today's track conditions heavily into all three selections.
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Today at Fairmount Park, the fast track sets the table for speed horses, and our free picks — My Last Escapade, Thirsty Natalie, and Eerie's Song — are built around exactly that angle. If you want the complete picture, including Dundie's full race breakdown, our exotic ticket construction, and pace projections for every race on the card, subscribers have it all. Check out /pricing and make sure you're squared away before the gates open.