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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — September 12, 2026

September 12, 20269 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

This card ran on September 12, 2026.

Best bets at Fairmount Park, September 12, 2026

Race 11My Last EscapadeML 8/52:30 PM EDT

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It's a picture-perfect late-summer afternoon at Fairmount Park — clear skies, 85 degrees, and a dirt surface that should be playing fast all day. Nine races are on the board, and the TrackWiz team has been grinding the past performances to bring you our best angles from the first post to the finale.

The heat hasn't let up heading into mid-September, and that firm, dry track is going to be a major factor. Expect early speed to get every chance today — horses that can get to the front cheaply and control the pace are going to be tough to run down. Keep that bias in mind whether you're playing exactas or just looking for a win bet.

Today's card mixes maiden specials, claimers, and a pair of Allowance Optional Claiming races that give us some real class-question intrigue. Race 7 — the Starter Allowance at six furlongs — looks like the day's marquee spot with Dundie setting up as our top-rated horse on the card.

Best Bets

Race 1

2:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A maiden special weight mile tilt where the morning line and TrackWiz ratings tell two different stories — the public likes Lies N Deception at even money, but our model sees My Last Escapade as the clear class of the field.

win1My Last EscapadeML 8/5

My Last Escapade draws the one-hole and carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 89.12 — a meaningful gap over the even-money morning line favorite. Trainer Adrian M. Salazar puts Julio E. Felix in the irons, a booking that signals confidence going a route distance of one mile and 70 yards on the Fairmount dirt. The 8/5 morning line suggests the market respects this one too, and with that rating edge, My Last Escapade looks like the horse to beat from the jump.

place4Lies N DeceptionML EVN

Lies N Deception opens at even money and posts the field's top average speed figure at 56, which matters in a maiden route where sustained pace is everything. Trainer Gabe Retana sends out Johanis Aranguren, and at even money this one will be heavily backed — but our model slots her just behind My Last Escapade with a 78.75 rating, making her a solid place ticket rather than a confident win bet.

show3Delong ShotML 6/1

Delong Shot is intriguing as the show pick here at 6/1. Trained by Ben Delong — the horse literally shares the trainer's surname — and ridden by Javier Diego, this one posts the field's best average speed figure at 53 and carries a 62.66 TrackWiz rating that stands third-best in the field. At those odds, including Delong Shot underneath in exactas and trifectas looks like a smart play.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

2:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open six-furlong claiming sprint where the morning line favorite isn't the horse our model likes most — creating a prime overlay situation worth attacking.

win6Thirsty NatalieML 6/1

Thirsty Natalie is our top play in Race 2 and the definition of an overlay — she opens at 6/1 on the morning line while carrying the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 82.71. Trainer Steve Manley sends her out with Johanis Aranguren up, and her 12% career win rate is right in line with the competitive claiming ranks. In a sprint where pace figures to be contested, a horse with this kind of model edge at a double-digit morning line price is exactly the spot TrackWiz is built to find.

place2Look N Mighty FineML 3/2

Look N Mighty Fine draws the two-hole, opens at 3/2 as the morning line choice, and backs it up with a 73.5 TrackWiz rating and an 11% career win rate. Julio E. Felix handles the riding duties for trainer James M. Watkins, and with an average speed figure of 53, this one has the early foot to be dangerous in a six-furlong dash. If Thirsty Natalie gets shuffled back early, Look N Mighty Fine could steal this at short odds.

show1Into Golden RoadML 5/2

Into Golden Road rounds out the ticket in the show spot and offers some comfort at 5/2. Victor Lara rides for Arthur A. Coontz, and the horse carries a 73.03 rating and an 11% career win mark that mirrors our place pick almost exactly. The average speed of 54 ties for the field's best mark, suggesting this one can handle whatever pace scenario develops.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

We're opening three races to all TrackWiz readers today, and there's plenty of meat on the bone. My Last Escapade (8/5 morning line) draws the spotlight in the Race 1 opener — a Maiden Special Weight going a route of ground at 1 mile and 70 yards. Route maidens on a speed-favoring track can be tricky, so watch the pace scenario closely. Over in Race 2, we're rolling with a legit longshot angle: Thirsty Natalie at 6/1 in a six-furlong claimer. Our TrackWiz rating of 82.71 suggests she's being underestimated by the oddsmaker — those are exactly the overlays you want to target. Race 3 brings another Maiden Special Weight at six furlongs, where Eerie's Song (8/5) matches My Last Escapade's 89.12 TrackWiz rating. Two MSW top picks at the same figure tells you the maiden ranks are competitive today, so construction of your tickets matters.

The connecting thread across these free races is pace — on a fast, dry Fairmount strip, horses that can establish position early without burning up will have a big edge late. We've factored today's track conditions heavily into all three selections.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

3:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong maiden sprint, but the morning line has them nearly flipped — setting up a potential value spot on the one we like best.

win4Eerie's SongML 8/5

Eerie's Song tops our model with a 89.12 rating — identical to My Last Escapade's mark in Race 1, which is rare company — and opens at 8/5 on the morning line. Trainer Ralph Martinez keeps the mount in-house with Brody Martinez in the saddle, a family stable connection that often signals a horse ready to fire. The average speed of 54 leads the field and in a six-furlong maiden dash, that early zip could be the difference against a field still searching for that first win.

place2I'm Thisty KidML 7/2

I'm Thisty Kid is the most interesting fading angle in the race. Trainer Harry E. Lynch books Victor Lara and opens the horse at 7/2, but it's the 75.61 TrackWiz rating that catches the eye — second best in the field by a comfortable margin. The average speed of 52 is a touch off the top horses, suggesting a stalker profile that could benefit if Eerie's Song draws out the speed of Dandy Ruby early.

show1Dandy RubyML 9/5

Dandy Ruby opens as the morning line co-favorite at 9/5 but slots third in our model at 58.67, which is why we're putting her in the show slot rather than on top. Harold Joseph Ortega rides for trainer Scott Becker, and an average speed of 53 means this one won't be embarrassed on pace. For trifecta purposes, Dandy Ruby's public support should keep the price from collapsing too far.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

3:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite in this six-furlong claimer doesn't line up with our top-rated horse — Color Me Fast looks significantly undervalued at 5/2 and could be the best bet of the early card.

win3Color Me FastML 5/2

Color Me Fast is a standout in this field — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that clears the morning line 6/5 favorite Passing Passion by over 24 points is a gap you don't see every day. Johanis Aranguren gets the call for trainer Dawn Martin, and while the 4% career win rate is modest, this looks like a horse whose best is ahead of it. At 5/2 with that rating edge, Color Me Fast is our best bet in Race 4 — the kind of number that wins races at this level.

place8Safecracker SueML 9/1

Safecracker Sue is the value angle in this race, posting a 75.65 TrackWiz rating while opening at a generous 9/1 on the morning line. Frank Reyes rides for Blanca Candelas, and with an average speed of 53, Safecracker Sue has the tactical speed to sit off an expected fast pace and close. That odds-to-rating gap makes her the premier place value in this field.

show5Jack's Yellow RoseML 12/1

Jack's Yellow Rose opens at 12/1 and carries the third-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 67.91 — a significant underlay situation for exotic bettors. Trainer Amy Nesbitt puts Ademar Santos aboard, and the 8% career win rate at this level suggests a horse who hits the board more than she wins. At those morning line odds, she's a must-use in trifecta and exacta boxes.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

4:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Eleven horses go postward going a mile and 70 yards in this claimer, but the TrackWiz model sees a clear top three pulling away from the rest — and the best of them opens at 7/1.

win6Lucky DestinyML 7/1

Lucky Destiny is the standout play in Race 5 — an 81.25 TrackWiz rating combined with a remarkable 22% career win rate makes this the class of the field by our measures. Trainer Scott Becker sends out Alexander Bendezu, and that win percentage at 7/1 morning line is a genuine overlay in a double-digit field going long. Lucky Destiny is the kind of horse that shows up on the board consistently, and the route distance of one mile and 70 yards should suit a horse with that level of career success.

place8NightwindML 3/1

Nightwind opens at 3/1 and rates second on our model at 72.77, ridden by Javier Diego for trainer Mike Durham. The average speed of 51 is on the modest end, but in an 11-horse field going long, pace will sort itself out and a horse rated this high at a fair price deserves respect underneath. Nightwind is the safe place anchor for this race.

show11Wayllen RichardML 7/2

Wayllen Richard checks in third on our model at 65.39 and opens at 7/2, which is solid value for a show ticket in a competitive field. Frank Reyes rides for Hugo Rodriguez, and a 12% career win rate is the best of the top three picks — suggesting this horse has been competitive enough to win before and should run into the money at a route distance. Use Wayllen Richard on the bottom of trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 6

4:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A top-heavy allowance optional claiming sprint where the two horses our model likes most account for a combined 169+ rating points — this looks like a two-horse race with a live third wheel.

win1Cloey AttackML 4/5

Cloey Attack is as close to a standout as you'll find on tonight's card — a 25% career win rate is elite at this level, and the 85.6 TrackWiz rating backs it up. Shane Childers puts Angel Ortega Stanley in the irons, and with an average speed of 55 tying for the field's best, Cloey Attack should be in a position to dictate or control the pace from the rail at 4/5. Short-priced horses at this level of rating and win percentage don't need an excuse — they just need to run their race.

place6Jet PackML 5/1

Jet Pack opens at 5/1 and nearly matches Cloey Attack's rating at 84.17 — the two are separated by just 1.43 points. Trainer Steve Manley doubles up in this race and puts Ademar Santos on the six, and a 35% career win rate is the second-best mark in the field. If Cloey Attack draws out early, Jet Pack's experience level suggests she can reel her back in down the lane.

show2Sally's SupriseML 9/1

Sally's Suprise is the show value in this spot at 9/1, rating a solid 64.15 and carrying a 19% career win mark for trainer Eduardo Rodriguez. Johanis Aranguren rides, and an average speed of 54 means this one can press the pace in a six-furlong sprint. For exotic players, Sally's Suprise gives you a live long-priced bottom leg.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

5:00 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The starter allowance at six furlongs features one horse our model separates from the field by a wide margin — but the second-best rated runner opens at 6/1 and deserves serious exotic attention.

win7DundieML 6/5

Dundie is the top-rated horse on the entire card tonight, posting a 89.71 TrackWiz rating while carrying a field-best 40% career win rate — that combination at 6/5 is still worth playing. Reynier Arrieta rides for trainer Pat Clay, and with an average speed of 55 besting the field, Dundie sets up as the kind of horse who can go to the front and dare others to run him down. The win percentage alone in a starter allowance field is elite and backs every dollar of that low morning line.

place4Strange ArrangeML 6/1

Strange Arrange opens at 6/1 and is our favorite value play on the night — an 80.96 TrackWiz rating and a 33% career win rate are both exceptional for this spot. Johanis Aranguren gets the mount for Eduardo Rodriguez, and if Dundie faces any trouble or gets caught in a pace battle, Strange Arrange is perfectly positioned to swoop. At 6/1, this horse should be shorter than that.

show3Lookin for BalaML 5/2

Lookin for Bala rates third in the field at 75.58 and opens at 5/2 — a solid morning line that reflects the public's respect for this horse. Brody Martinez rides for Ralph Martinez, and a 31% career win rate means this horse consistently competes with the best in the field. In a race where Dundie and Strange Arrange may draw out the pace, Lookin for Bala's experience level makes it a reliable show anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

5:25 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A 12-horse allowance optional claiming sprint that looks loaded on paper, but our model sees a clear top three separating from the rest — including a genuine overlay at the top of our selections.

win4El PeligroML 5/1

El Peligro opens at 5/1 and carries an 83.69 TrackWiz rating, second only to a horse opening at 9/5 in our field rankings. Trainer Dennis Higgins puts Alexander Bendezu up for this six-furlong sprint, and an average speed of 55 ties for the field's best. In a 12-horse field where pace could get messy, having a horse with this rating at 5/1 is a real opportunity — El Peligro is the TrackWiz top selection and worth a serious win investment.

place8Volodymyr ZML 8/1

Volodymyr Z is the eye-catcher in this race — a 41% career win rate is by far the highest mark in this field, and that experience level at 8/1 morning line is a glaring value discrepancy. Trainer Scott Becker sends out Reynier Arrieta, and a 76.95 rating puts this horse solidly in the mix. A horse that has won four in ten career starts isn't going to be a pushover, and the morning line underestimates the threat here.

show2Excellent EmpireML 12/1

Excellent Empire rounds out the ticket at 12/1 and rates third on our model at 73.96, a strong figure in a competitive AOC field. Brody Martinez rides for Ralph Martinez, and the 27% career win mark — tied for second-best in the race — suggests this is a horse that has beaten fields like this before. Use Excellent Empire freely on the bottom of exotics at those odds.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 9

5:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a 12-horse claiming sprint at six furlongs where Hunts Promise dominates the model and opens at a very playable morning line price — but there's a strong supporting cast that makes the exacta and trifecta worth building out.

win6Hunts PromiseML 5/2

Hunts Promise tops the Race 9 model with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — tied for the second-best mark on the entire card tonight — and opens at 5/2 on the morning line. Victor Lara rides for Harry E. Lynch, and a 14% career win rate in a 12-horse claiming field signals consistent competitiveness. In a six-furlong sprint where pace will develop quickly, a horse rated this highly at a fair price is exactly the kind of strong-opinion play to close out the night with.

place2InstastarML 5/1

Instastar draws the two-hole with Brody Martinez up for Ralph Martinez and rates second in the field at 74.95. The 8% career win rate is modest but this is a claiming horse that our model projects to run a big race, and 5/1 morning line odds leave room for a solid return even on place tickets. Instastar sits comfortably in the place spot as the safe connecting piece in exactas with Hunts Promise.

show11ElmoreML 9/1

Elmore is the legitimate longshot value in the show slot — a 33% career win rate is the best mark in this entire field by a wide margin, and the horse rates 62.53 on our model while opening at 9/1. E. T. Baird rides for Larry Rivelli, and a horse who wins one in three lifetime is not going to be intimidated by a six-furlong claiming sprint. That win percentage screams that Elmore can absolutely run into the money, making 9/1 a very inviting show price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

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Today at Fairmount Park, the fast track sets the table for speed horses, and our free picks — My Last Escapade, Thirsty Natalie, and Eerie's Song — are built around exactly that angle. If you want the complete picture, including Dundie's full race breakdown, our exotic ticket construction, and pace projections for every race on the card, subscribers have it all. Check out /pricing and make sure you're squared away before the gates open.

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