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Fairmount Park Picks & Predictions — September 8, 2026

September 8, 20268 racesAll Fairmount Park picks

It's a warm Tuesday afternoon at Fairmount Park — partly cloudy skies, 88°F, and a full eight-race dirt card on the board. The late-summer heat hasn't cooled off the competition, and today's lineup has some genuinely interesting storylines from the jump ball opener all the way through a loaded closer.

Three of the eight races are free to all TrackWiz readers, featuring morning-line favorites carrying serious ratings across Maiden Special Weight and Claiming conditions. The back half of the card steps up to Allowance Optional Claiming company, where the pace scenarios get trickier and the value angles get more interesting. That's where your premium subscription earns its keep.

Eight races, all on dirt — let's break down what today's card is telling us.

Best Bets

Race 1

6:30 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden special weight mile that comes down to two standout ratings in a field full of first-timers — the top two horses are separated by just over two points but are miles ahead of the rest.

win4KarazestML 4/5

Karazest draws in as the overwhelming morning line favorite at 4/5, and our TrackWiz rating of 90 backs that up completely. Posting an average speed figure of 57 — the highest in this field by a clear margin — Karazest profiles as a horse with a significant class edge over these maiden foes. Alexander Bendezu gets the call in the irons, a strong booking that signals connections are serious about winning today. In a race where no horse in the field has a career win to their name, the horse with the best raw ability and highest speed figures is usually the right play.

place6Union RoarML 2/1

Union Roar is the logical bridesmaid here, sporting a TrackWiz rating of 87.77 — the second-highest in the field — and drawing the services of trainer R. Terry Young, who also saddles longshot Last Candy. At 2/1 on the morning line, Union Roar offers solid value for a horse whose profile suggests genuine competitiveness. If Karazest has any stumble at the break or gets caught up in traffic on the far turn, Union Roar is positioned to capitalize.

show7Last CandyML 9/1

Last Candy at 9/1 makes for an intriguing third piece of the exotic puzzle. She rates out at 52.66 — third in the field — and also runs for trainer R. Terry Young, who has two bullets in this race. Her average speed figure of 53 edges out several of her rivals, and at those odds she's the kind of overlaid third horse that can make exactas and trifectas pay nicely.

Race 2

6:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Lily's Woofy comes in as a heavy favorite in this 6-furlong dirt claimer, but there's a live exacta underneath with two horses rating in the high 70s who could make things interesting.

win7Lily's WoofyML 1/2

Lily's Woofy is as dominant on paper as any horse on today's card, posting a TrackWiz rating of 90 against a field where the next-closest competitor checks in at 79.49. At 1/2 on the morning line, she's not a horse you're betting for value — she's a horse you're anchoring exotics around. A 23% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 tie the top of this field, and jockey Brody Martinez gives her a competent pilot at 6 furlongs on the dirt. Trainer Ralph Martinez also has Frosted Eclair in here, which tells you he's not sandbagging with his better horse.

place6Long Tall WomanML 6/1

Long Tall Woman brings a career win rate of 22% into this spot and a TrackWiz rating of 79.49 — the second-best in the field. Luis H. Colon takes the mount, and with an average speed figure of 54 matching the top of the pack, she's clearly competitive for a piece. At 6/1 on the morning line, she represents solid exacta value underneath Lily's Woofy.

show4OnacountaML 8/1

Onacounta at 8/1 is worth a look as a show play and in the trifecta. Trainer Dennis Hornbostel sends her in with a 17% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 77.04 — third in the field. Her average speed figure of 54 matches the leaders, and at morning line odds of 8/1 she's an overlay if she hits the board.

Race 3

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Bernie Lomax comes in at even money with the top TrackWiz rating in a wide-open 5.5-furlong claiming sprint, but Danza Taxi's eye-popping 42% career win rate makes the underneath positions genuinely interesting.

win1Bernie LomaxML EVN

Bernie Lomax is the clear top selection here with a TrackWiz rating of 90 and a 21% career win rate that's consistent for the claiming level. Alexander Bendezu — one of the busiest and most effective riders on this circuit — gets the mount, and that's a meaningful booking for the morning line favorite. His average speed figure of 54 ties the top of this field, and in a 5.5-furlong sprint, breaking cleanly from the rail under Bendezu's confident handling should put him in an ideal stalking position. Trainer Maximino Quinonez also runs Time Break in Race 2, showing stable form.

place6Spanish DoubloonML 7/1

Spanish Doubloon at 7/1 is a genuine value play for the place slot. A TrackWiz rating of 62.32 makes him the fourth-highest rated horse in the field, but with a 16% career win rate and a morning line of 7/1, there's real overlay potential here. Javier Tavares takes over the riding duties, and if the pace scenario sets up with the favorite burning early, Spanish Doubloon could be flying late.

show4Danza TaxiML 3/1

Danza Taxi is the most intriguing horse in the race from a pure data standpoint — a 42% career win rate is remarkable and leads this entire field by a mile. The TrackWiz rating of 58.51 suggests the raw speed figures don't quite match the win record, but horses with that kind of conversion rate tend to show up on the board with regularity. At 3/1, she's not a huge price, but her consistency makes her a solid show anchor in trifectas.

The first three races on the card give us a clean look at some of the day's most confident top picks. Karazest opens things up in the one-mile Maiden Special Weight, drawing our highest possible rating and heading in as the morning-line chalk at 4/5 — distance and surface both look right for this one. In Race 2, Lily's Woofy takes on a six-furlong Claiming field and is being sent off at 1/2 on the morning line, which tells you the connections are feeling good. And in Race 3, Bernie Lomax draws in at even money for a five-and-a-half furlong sprint — short, fast, and potentially over before the casual fan finishes their first beer.

One thread worth watching across these early races: on a warm, dry day like today, Fairmount's dirt surface can play quick. Front-runners and pace-pressers tend to benefit when the ground firms up in late summer heat — keep that bias in mind as you watch how the early races unfold, because it could shape your approach to the rest of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

7:45 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The allowance optional claiming field at 6 furlongs features a fascinating triangle at the top — the highest-rated horse is NOT the morning line favorite, setting up a potential value scenario worth exploiting.

win3W W HotshotML 7/2

W W Hotshot tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 despite being third on the morning line at 7/2, and that gap between market perception and our analysis is exactly where value is found. A 44% career win rate is the highest in this field by a significant margin — Hotshot simply knows how to find the winner's circle. His average speed figure of 55 ties the top of the field, and with Alexander Bendezu aboard for trainer Scott Becker, this is a sharp connections play that deserves respect at the price.

place5Wildwood SicilianML 3/1

Wildwood Sicilian at 3/1 is another Scott Becker-trained runner, giving that barn two shots in this race. A TrackWiz rating of 75.06 and a 22% career win rate slot her in firmly as the second-best horse on paper. Her average speed figure of 56 actually leads the field, suggesting she may have a touch more raw speed than even her stablemate. Reynier Arrieta picks up the mount.

show2Handsome HerbML 6/5

Handsome Herb is the morning line favorite at 6/5 despite ranking third in our TrackWiz ratings at 69.78 — that's a horse the market loves more than our numbers do. Still, a 17% career win rate and the best jockey Frank Reyes on board means he's unlikely to run badly. In a race where Becker's barn might split attention, Herb could be the one who rallies late for the show dough while the top two duke it out.

Race 5

8:10 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Bernin Tune stands out clearly in a mile-and-70-yard dirt allowance optional claimer, but the 9/5 morning line leaves a cluster of intriguing horses jostling for the exacta and trifecta spots.

win4Bernin TuneML 9/5

Bernin Tune's TrackWiz rating of 88.83 is far and away the best in this field, and the 9/5 morning line is actually a fair price for a horse with this kind of separation. A 21% career win rate shows consistency, and while his average speed figure of 52 matches the field, the overall rating gap suggests a more complete profile — better late-pace ability or finishing kick — that distinguishes him at a route distance. Victor Lara gets the call for trainer Steve Manley, who also sends out Camp Daddy in the same race.

place2American CauseML 3/1

American Cause at 3/1 is the natural backup here, with a TrackWiz rating of 64.82 and a 23% career win rate that's actually the highest among the non-Bernin Tune contenders. Pat Clay is a trainer who consistently fires when he enters horses at this level. Alexander Bendezu takes the mount — one of the most active jockeys on this card — and in a route race where pace can get complicated, Cause's career win efficiency suggests he knows how to run a clean trip.

show7RedfieldML 7/2

Redfield at 7/2 rounds out a logical top three with a TrackWiz rating of 60.78 and an 18% career win rate. Trainer James M. Watkins has a horse that fits the conditions, and at morning line odds of 7/2, Redfield is likely to be bet down further — making him a solid trifecta piece with legitimate board potential. He's not a bomb, but he's not a throw-out either.

Race 6

8:35 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tight allowance optional claiming sprint at 5.5 furlongs with two horses clustered in the high 80s on our ratings — the top of this field is genuinely close, which could make for a fast pace and a scrambling finish.

win2GoghML 7/5

Gogh comes in as the 7/5 morning line choice and backs it up with a TrackWiz rating of 87.21 — the best in the field. A 22% career win rate for trainer Michele Boyce shows a horse that converts opportunities into wins at a solid clip, and Ademar Santos in the irons is a confident booking. In a short 5.5-furlong dirt sprint, a high-rated horse with tactical speed and an experienced jockey tends to get the job done before the closers can load up.

place1R U JokingML 5/1

R U Joking at 5/1 is one of the most interesting plays on today's card. A TrackWiz rating of 84.17 is the second-highest in the field, yet the morning line opens at 5/1 — a clear case where the market is undervaluing a sharp contender. An 18% career win rate for trainer Maximino Quinonez is respectable, and with Alexander Bendezu up — the same rider who handles top picks in multiple races today — R U Joking looks primed for a big effort just off the pace.

show5Illini RedML 4/1

Illini Red at 4/1 closes out a logical trifecta with a TrackWiz rating of 77.24 and a field-best 25% career win rate. That conversion rate is the highest among any non-top-two rated horse in this race, which tells you Illini Red is an efficient, battle-tested competitor. Trainer Steve Manley puts Johanis Aranguren on board, and at a 5.5-furlong distance with 54 average speed, she's got enough foot to be right there at the wire.

Race 7

9:00 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Mo Town Renee opens at even money in a wide ten-horse allowance optional claiming field — but the standout here is the supporting cast, which includes a horse with a 75% career win rate and a 12/1 longshot who might be criminally underpriced.

win6Mo Town ReneeML EVN

Mo Town Renee tops the TrackWiz ratings at 90 and draws the even money tab on the morning line, which is hard to argue against. A 57% career win rate is elite by any measure — more than half her career starts have ended in a win, which is extraordinary at any level. Trainer Wayne M. Catalano is a graded-stakes-caliber conditioner who clearly has this horse firing, and Alexander Bendezu closes the loop on what looks like a razor-sharp connections package for a 6-furlong dirt sprint.

place3BiagoddessML 5/1

Biagoddess is one of the most fascinating horses on the entire card — a 75% career win rate is the kind of number that makes you double-check the data. She checks in with a TrackWiz rating of 77.8 and an average speed figure of 55, which ties the top of the field. Trainer Larry Rivelli keeps a tidy barn, and Julio E. Felix aboard means she'll be ridden with intention. If Mo Town Renee has any trouble getting clear, Biagoddess has the winning habit to make up ground quickly.

show5Looks Lucky to MeML 12/1

Looks Lucky to Me is a 12/1 morning liner with a TrackWiz rating of 67.89 — the third-best in this field — and that gap between rating and price is exactly the kind of overlay that makes trifectas pay. Trainer Ralph Martinez, who runs multiple horses today, sends this one out with Brody Martinez in the irons. A 16% career win rate isn't flashy, but at those odds, all she needs to do is hit the board and the payout gets interesting.

Race 8

9:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Racarino comes in at 2/1 with a dominant TrackWiz rating in a deep ten-horse claiming sprint, but there's legitimate depth underneath that should make the trifecta worth chasing.

win8RacarinoML 2/1

Racarino posts a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — a full 18 points clear of the second-rated horse in the field — and pairs that with the best average speed figure of 55 in the race. A 16% career win rate is modest on paper, but that rating gap is significant enough to override the modest conversion rate. Trainer Armando Hernandez puts Frank Reyes aboard at 2/1, and in a 10-horse field where the pace scenario could get messy early, a horse with a higher speed ceiling than anyone else tends to come through.

place5Khozan's ValentineML 7/2

Khozan's Valentine at 7/2 is the clear second option with a TrackWiz rating of 70.23 and the best career win percentage among the legit contenders at 25%. Trainer Clay Laux sends her out with Javier Tavares, and an average speed figure of 54 ties the mid-pack, meaning she's fast enough to be competitive without needing a perfect pace scenario. At 7/2, she's a solid place bet and an essential piece of any exotic play.

show1All About ToniteML 4/1

All About Tonite at 4/1 rounds out the top three with a TrackWiz rating of 67.49 and a 14% career win rate. Johanis Aranguren takes the mount for trainer Ruben Cruz Jr., and in a wide-open field like this one, a horse with solid figures who draws the rail and gets a clean trip can easily sneak into the show spot. At 4/1, the price is fair and the risk is manageable as a third-leg anchor.

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Bottom line for today at Fairmount: Karazest, Lily's Woofy, and Bernie Lomax anchor the free card with strong ratings and short prices — the kind of races where you might use them as singles in multi-race wagers rather than laying big win bets. The real decisions come in Races 4 through 8, where pace matchups and class questions open the door to some genuine value. Full analysis — including exotic ticket recommendations — is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck out there, and keep an eye on that fast track surface all afternoon.

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