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Evangeline Picks & Predictions — October 10, 2026

October 10, 20267 racesAll Evangeline picks

It's a beautiful Saturday afternoon at Evangeline Downs — clear skies, 79 degrees, and a fast Cajun dirt strip ready for speed. Seven races are on the board today, and this card leans hard into the short-burst quarter horse game that Evangeline does better than just about anyone.

Distances today range from a lightning-quick 220 yards all the way out to 870 yards, so there's real variety to work with. The Race 6 Stakes at 400 yards is the centerpiece of the card — a chance to see some of the better local runners go head-to-head on a picture-perfect afternoon. If you're building multi-race tickets, today's structure sets up nicely.

TrackWiz has full analysis on all seven races. Three are unlocked for every reader, and four premium races — including that Stakes — are available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:35 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 870 yd · Dirt

The TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story here — One Scared Up Hero sits atop an 870-yard starter allowance field where the chalk looks beatable and the top-rated horse is anything but the morning-line favorite.

win3One Scared Up HeroML 5/1

One Scared Up Hero carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 84.17 despite being listed at 5/1 on the morning line — that gap between perceived value and our model's assessment is exactly the kind of spot we love. Randy Edison Jr. gets the call for trainer Gilberto Rosales, and at 870 yards — a distance that rewards stamina and sustained acceleration — this horse's profile sets up well. A 5% career win rate looks modest on paper, but in a starter allowance where consistency of effort matters as much as raw wins, the rating edge is significant. Bet accordingly at what should be a generous price.

place6Deep Diamond TmML 2/1

Deep Diamond Tm is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and posts a solid 74.38 TrackWiz rating, backed by a field-best 19% career win rate — that's a horse who knows how to hit the board. Trainer Mardonio Flores Jr. also saddles Curlin Coal in this race, which suggests the barn has strong representation and isn't running blindly. Bobby Ransom handles the riding duties, and the combination of proven winning habits and a sharp trainer operation makes this a safe place candidate.

show5Curlin CoalML 3/1

Curlin Coal checks in at a 71.91 rating with a 10% career win rate, giving trainer Mardonio Flores Jr. two live shots in the same race — a barn that enters multiple horses usually has confidence in both. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price isn't flashy, but for exotic players building tri tickets, Curlin Coal's rating clusters tightly enough with Deep Diamond Tm to justify the inclusion. Jockey Juan Francisco Garcia Jr. is an experienced hand who can navigate the 870-yard distance effectively.

Race 2

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 300 yd · Dirt

A wide-open 10-horse claiming sprint at 300 yards where the morning line and the TrackWiz ratings disagree sharply — the model's top choice isn't the favorite, and there's legitimate value scattered throughout the field.

win7VooduuML 5/1

Vooduu sits atop the TrackWiz leaderboard with an 84.17 rating in this claiming sprint, yet the morning line has this horse at 5/1 — a meaningful disconnect that suggests the public hasn't caught up to what our analysis sees. Trainer Kenneth Weeks sends out Vooduu with Eddi Emanuel Martinez in the irons, a workmanlike combination in a race where the top-rated horse at a non-chalk price is a prime target. At 300 yards, this is a pure explosion off the gate, and Vooduu's model score suggests the raw ability is there to dominate. Play confidently in win singles and on top of your exotics.

place4Meagans HuckleberryML 8/1

Meagans Huckleberry comes in with a 67.37 rating — second-best in the field — and trainer Danny Hoda puts Rene Hernandez up, an active and capable combination at Evangeline. The morning line has this horse at 8/1, which feels generous given the rating, and if the top pick absorbs early pressure, Meagans Huckleberry is well-positioned to grab a piece at a price. For exacta and trifecta construction, getting this horse underneath at 8-1 morning line odds is a real value opportunity.

show1One Sweet TapML 2/1

One Sweet Tap is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 66.04 TrackWiz rating and a modest 5% career win rate — a profile that screams 'place horse' rather than win horse. Trainer Francisco Campos Jr. fields Rolando Cabrera here, and in a 300-yard dash where fractions of a second decide everything, a horse with the public's confidence but a historically low win rate is a classic show-bet candidate. Including One Sweet Tap in trifecta tickets as a saver makes plenty of sense in a field this deep.

Race 3

11:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 250 yd · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint at 250 yards where two horses — Tippin My Ivory and Inspyrational — separate themselves dramatically from the rest of the field in the ratings, setting up a potential one-two punch at the top of the ticket.

win7Tippin My IvoryML 5/2

Tippin My Ivory leads all runners with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating in a field where every horse is still looking for their first win. Trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez sends out Jose Ariel Rodriguez, and at 5/2 on the morning line, there's still reasonable value here for a horse our model rates this highly. In a maiden sprint at 250 yards, gate speed and raw ability are everything — and Tippin My Ivory's rating suggests both are present in abundance. This is as close to a confident win selection as you'll find in a maiden field.

place1InspyrationalML 2/1

Inspyrational is only a hair behind at 86.08 — the second-highest rating in the race — and gets out of the rail post under Ubaldo Luna for trainer Martin Trejo. The morning line respects this horse at 2/1, and with two evenly-matched standouts in the field, the logical outcome is a 1-7 or 7-1 exacta finish. Inspyrational's profile fits perfectly as the place horse in an otherwise thin maiden field, and grabbing the exacta both ways at these morning line prices could yield solid returns.

show2Ivorys Secret BbML 6/1

Ivorys Secret Bb trails the top two horses significantly at 59.28 but is the clear third-best rated horse in a field where most runners are bunched in the 40s and below. Trainer Dustin Rhodes fields Adrian X. Morales, and at 6/1 on the morning line, this horse represents value for trifecta construction. In maiden races, form can be unpredictable, and having the third-strongest rating at a price offers a reasonable hedge for anyone looking to box or key the top two.

The free portion of today's card is a solid sampler of what Evangeline offers. One Scared Up Hero opens the day in a Starter Allowance at 870 yards — the marathon distance by quarter horse standards — where tactical runners who can sustain a run have a real edge over pure sprinters. In Race 2, Vooduu gets a 300-yard Claiming spot where gate sharpness is everything. And in Race 3, Tippin My Ivory carries the highest rating of the free picks (87.81) into a 250-yard Maiden Claiming — a short, explosive race where our top pick looks like she has a step on the field right out of the gate.

One consistent angle across all three free races: on a clear, dry afternoon with a surface that figures to play fast, horses with strong early velocity scores and clean gate records have a built-in advantage. Keep that in mind as you build your approach to the full card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 400 yd · Dirt

An allowance sprint at 400 yards with a legitimate top-two standoff — Sharpest Image and Rf Run Tarzan Run own ratings far above the rest of the field, while a deep bench of 33%-career-win-rate horses adds unpredictability to the exacta landscape.

win8Sharpest ImageML 5/2

Sharpest Image heads into this allowance spot with the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and draws jockey Angel A. Fierro for trainer Braulio Hernandez. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse our model identifies as the top option in the field. A 16% career win rate is the honest note here — it's not elite — but in the context of a short sprint where the rating gap over most of the field is sizable, the ability profile outweighs the historical win conversion. This is our top selection and a prime candidate for singles.

place1Rf Run Tarzan RunML 9/5

Rf Run Tarzan Run is no slouch either — an 85.23 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 33% career win rate make this the most accomplished horse in the field on a pure winning percentage basis. Trainer Kenneth Weeks puts Eddi Emanuel Martinez in the saddle, and at 9/5 on the morning line, this is the public's choice. The slight edge in our ratings goes to Sharpest Image, but Rf Run Tarzan Run is close enough that finishing second wouldn't surprise anyone. A strong exacta play underneath the win pick.

show2Flying Party ScML 8/1

Flying Party Sc sits at 55.79 in the ratings — a significant drop below the top two — but at 8/1 on the morning line, trainer Jose U. Lopez and jockey Noe Castaneda offer trifecta value that the morning line price supports. A 16% career win rate is consistent with a horse who competes without dominating, which is exactly the show-bet profile you're hunting. If the top two run their race, Flying Party Sc could easily be picking up the pieces for third at a price that pays well in the tri.

Race 5

12:15 AM EDT

Allowance · 300 yd · Dirt

San Lorenzo Princess dominates this 10-horse allowance sprint on paper with a rating more than 30 points clear of the second-best horse, making this one of the cleaner top-pick situations on the card — but the place and show spots offer intrigue at price.

win6San Lorenzo PrincessML 2/1

San Lorenzo Princess is the standout of the entire race with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a scorching 38% career win rate — that combination of model score and real-world results is rare in a 300-yard allowance field. Trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez has been active on this card, and Leonardo Rodriguez gets the mount, a rider who knows how to handle sprinters. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price isn't generous but the profile is legitimate — when a horse this dominant shows up at morning-line odds this accessible, you play them.

place8C the PowerML 5/2

C the Power checks in at 58.96 with a 26% career win rate, making trainer Juan M. Montoya Jr.'s entry the most proven closer behind the top pick. Humberto Vital rides, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this horse is expected to be competitive. The rating gap between C the Power and San Lorenzo Princess is significant, but this is about hitting the board — and a 26% career win rate tells you this horse knows how to finish in the money. A reliable place candidate in your exotics.

show5Get Her DoneML 9/2

Get Her Done slots in at 56.73 and a 26% career win rate — nearly identical numbers to C the Power — which makes the choice between them for third largely a matter of post position and post-parade behavior. Randy Edison Jr. handles the riding duties for trainer Jose Carrizales, and at 9/2 on the morning line, Get Her Done offers slightly better value than C the Power for the show spot. In a 300-yard dash where fractions decide everything, having two similarly-rated horses flanking the top pick in your trifecta is smart construction.

Race 6

12:40 AM EDT

Stakes · 400 yd · Dirt

The stakes race shapes up as a two-horse affair at the top, with San Lorenzo Bossman and Tm Back to Perry separating themselves from a field that lacks the ratings to seriously challenge — but at 40% career win rates for both, this race has some real stakes-caliber credentials.

win5San Lorenzo BossmanML 8/5

San Lorenzo Bossman carries the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 89.12 and a 40% career win rate — in a stakes race, those are elite credentials that fully justify the 8/5 morning-line favoritism. Trainer Ramiro Aboytes-Suarez is having a strong card today, and Leonardo Rodriguez is back in the irons, a jockey-trainer combination that's already represented well. At 400 yards on dirt, this is a horse with the profile of a true stakes performer, and the rating over every other horse in the field is decisive. This is a race to bet confidently.

place6Tm Back to PerryML 4/1

Tm Back to Perry matches San Lorenzo Bossman with a 40% career win rate and rates second in the field at 77.31 — there's a legitimate rivalry here between two horses who know how to win. Trainer Rogelio Huitron sends out Everardo Rodriguez, and at 4/1 on the morning line, the price is attractive for a horse with this kind of win record in a stakes spot. If anything goes sideways with the top pick, Tm Back to Perry is the heir apparent and a strong exacta partner underneath.

show1Fast Lane TrainML 10/1

Fast Lane Train is the value play at 10/1 on the morning line with a 66.60 TrackWiz rating and a 23% career win rate — respectable credentials in a stakes field, even if the gap to the top two is clear. Trainer Kenneth L. Roberts Sr. fields Pedro Chavarria Espinosa, and in a six-horse stakes race, the trifecta payouts can be meaningful when a 10/1 shot fills the third slot. Fast Lane Train's rating puts this horse comfortably ahead of the three remaining runners, making the show case here a solid value angle for trifecta players.

Race 7

1:05 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 220 yd · Dirt

A maiden sprint at 220 yards where Rh La Monja stands out dramatically from the field on ratings, creating a rare maiden situation with a horse that looks like a class apart — the real question is whether the framing odds reflect the true advantage.

win7Rh La MonjaML 3/1

Rh La Monja is the dominant figure in this maiden field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — more than 20 points clear of the second-best horse — and trainer Kenneth Weeks puts Saul Ramirez Hernandez in the irons. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a horse our model believes is significantly underbet for how far above the rest of the field the ratings place them. In a 220-yard dash where it's essentially a standing start with minimal time to recover from a bobble, a horse this far superior on metrics deserves to go off at shorter odds — which means 3/1 is real value here.

place2Badboi MarkML 5/2

Badboi Mark rates second in the field at 66.46, a solid 20-plus point gap behind the top pick but well clear of the remaining horses. Trainer Gilberto Rosales uses Rolando Cabrera, a combination with Evangeline experience, and at 5/2 on the morning line, there's legitimate support here. In a maiden race where anything can happen at the gate, having the second-best rated horse underneath your top pick in the exacta is the textbook approach — Badboi Mark profiles as the logical beneficiary if Rh La Monja has any issues.

show4Tf Majestic FddML 4/1

Tf Majestic Fdd rates third in the field at 55.00 and gets Eddi Emanuel Martinez up for trainer Ernesto Gonzalez — a capable pairing for a short sprint. At 4/1 on the morning line, the price reflects genuine public interest, and in a maiden race with a dominant favorite, the trifecta often falls to the next two logical horses rather than a chaos outcome. Including Tf Majestic Fdd in trifecta tickets gives you a rated third option at a price that makes the payout worthwhile.

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Bottom line: Evangeline is putting on a quality card today under ideal conditions. Tippin My Ivory is the play to watch among the free races, and San Lorenzo Bossman is the marquee name on the full card. Unlock the complete TrackWiz analysis at /pricing and get every angle before the first gate opens.

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