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Evangeline Picks & Predictions — August 20, 2026

August 20, 20268 racesAll Evangeline picks

It's a hot one at Evangeline Downs today — 94°F under clear Louisiana skies, and that afternoon heat is going to be a real factor as the card wears on. Eight races are on the board, split between dirt and turf, ranging from maiden sprints all the way up to allowance routes. There's something here for every type of bettor.

The turf course has been getting a workout with two maiden turf races and a pair of allowance routes on the grass. Keep that in mind when you're looking at pace scenarios — firm turf at Evangeline tends to favor closers who can uncork a sustained late run, especially in this heat when early speed can wilt down the stretch.

TrackWiz has broken down all eight races, with free analysis on Races 1 through 3 to get your day started. Races 4 through 8 — where things get really interesting — are available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

10:15 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint with several firsters and limited speed figures to separate the field — the morning line tells the story here, with a clear top two on ratings but plenty of unknowns lurking.

win6Romantic RumorML 5/2

Romantic Rumor tops our ratings at 57.5 and draws the 6-hole on the turf, which should give her a clean trip without getting shuffled early. The 5/2 morning line confirms the oddsmakers see what we see — this is a horse that projects as the class of the field on paper. Trainer Keith G. Bourgeois also saddles Cairo's Chic in this race, which speaks to his familiarity with the condition, and having two runners often means at least one is ready to fire. With an avg speed of 55, she compares favorably to most of the field.

place8Stephs FactorML 3/1

Stephs Factor comes in with the field's highest avg speed figure at 56 and rates second overall at 56.67 — very close to the top. Trainer Justin Jeansonne puts Carlos Perez in the irons, a workmanlike combination that tends to get horses into contention early in the sprint. At 3/1, she's a natural pairing with Romantic Rumor in exacta tickets.

show7Bar CarML 4/1

Bar Car carries a 55 rating and an avg speed of 54, putting her right in the mix for the bottom of the exacta. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is a name that commands attention — when he ships to Evangeline, it often means the horse is ready to run. Isaac Castillo takes the mount from the 7-hole, a clean outside post on the turf that avoids the early traffic.

Race 2

10:42 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The ratings gap here is unusually wide for a claiming sprint — one horse blows the field away on our numbers while the morning line favorite carries a much lower score, setting up a potential overlay situation.

win8WosiemaksML 7/2

Wosiemaks is the standout of this card, posting a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 — a full 17-plus points clear of the next-best horse. That kind of separation doesn't happen often in a claiming field, and it's backed by a career win rate of 22%, which is strong for the class level. Trainer Sam B. David, Jr. has Isaac Castillo up, and the 7/2 morning line looks like real value given how dominant the numbers are. This is our strongest play of the first three races.

place1D'buskerML 5/2

D'busker draws the rail and lands as the morning-line co-favorite at 5/2 despite a TrackWiz rating of 68.85 — well below Wosiemaks but still second-best in the field. Trainer Ronnie Averett and Harry Hernandez team up here, and with a 9% career win rate on a horse likely to see a comfortable pace scenario from the inside, a place finish feels well within reach. Slot him beneath Wosiemaks in your exactas.

show2PapiringaML 6/1

Papiringa offers the best career win percentage among the horses rated below D'busker at 12%, and her 6/1 morning line makes her a legitimate show-price play if things get crowded late. Julio Ramirez, Jr. rides for trainer Rosa E. Ramirez — a family operation that tends to have their horses ready. She's a sensible hedge in the lower slots of your trifecta.

Race 3

11:09 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two powerhouses sit atop the ratings in this claiming dirt sprint, separated by fewer than three points, setting up what could be a pace duel with a sharp underdog lurking for show.

win1It's Been RealML 5/2

It's Been Real leads the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this race — and draws the rail in a 5.5-furlong sprint, where she'll have every opportunity to control the early pace. Harry Hernandez is a consistent presence at Evangeline and pairs with trainer Juan A. Larrosa, a sharp combination in this class range. The 5/2 morning line is fair, and a career avg speed of 54 keeps her honest in terms of raw numbers. Hard to go against the top-rated horse in a field this short.

place4DreamrosaML 4/1

Dreamrosa is right on It's Been Real's heels at 85.62, with the field's top avg speed figure of 56 — meaning she's capable of producing the fastest raw effort in the race. Trainer Jayde J. Gelner puts Elio J. Barrera up, and with a 20% career win rate, this horse has already proven she can close the deal. At 4/1, she's a legitimate win threat that we're slotting for place coverage.

show2HavemercionusML 15/1

Havemercionus at 15/1 is the value angle in this race — a 33% career win rate is an eye-popping number that suggests a horse who has won repeatedly when fit and ready. Trainer Jonas Gibson sends her out with Alexander Castillo, and the 59.91 rating is well above the mid-field horses. At that morning line, she's worth including in your trifectas as a live longshot for show.

Our three free races today give you a nice cross-section of the card. We open on the turf with Romantic Rumor in a 5-furlong maiden special weight — a short turf sprint where pace will be everything from gate to wire. Then we shift to the dirt for a pair of claiming sprints: Wosiemaks at 7/2 in Race 2 and It's Been Real at 5/2 in Race 3, where our TrackWiz rating of 87.81 makes the latter our strongest free-play confidence score of the opening trio.

One angle worth noting across all three free races: the sizzling afternoon heat at Evangeline often punishes horses asked to go hard on the front end early. In both dirt sprints, we're paying close attention to which horses can rate just off the pace and pounce in the final furlong rather than burning out trying to lead gate to wire.

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Race 4

11:36 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A maiden turf mile where the top two on our ratings are separated by nearly 19 points — this looks like a two-horse race at the top with a clear hierarchy, though turf racing always invites surprises.

win2Von ErichML 9/5

Von Erich is the class of this field by our numbers, posting an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark across all maiden entries today. Trainer Allen Landry sends him out with Jansen Melancon, one of the more reliable Evangeline riders, and the 9/5 morning line reflects the confidence surrounding him. An avg speed of 53 on the turf is solid for a maiden going a mile, and the 2-hole gives him a clean position to settle and strike. This is a race where backing the top-rated horse makes a lot of sense.

place1Tears for TheeML 2/1

Tears for Thee rates second at 70.24 and goes postward at 2/1 — the morning-line co-favorite despite being meaningfully below Von Erich on our ratings. Trainer Benard Chatters teams with Julio Ramirez, Jr., and an avg speed of 51 on turf is respectable for the distance. She's a natural place anchor in the exotics, and if Von Erich hits any trouble, she's the logical beneficiary.

show4Seize the WinML 4/1

Seize the Win rates third at 59.47 and carries a 4/1 morning line, giving her value for show purposes and trifecta inclusion. Trainer Ricky Courville puts Emanuel Nieves up, and the 4-hole offers a clean trip with room to breathe on the far turn of a one-mile turf route. Her avg speed of 52 isn't flashy, but she projects to finish in the mix.

Race 5

12:03 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

This allowance dirt sprint is closer on ratings than it looks at first glance — the morning-line favorite ranks fourth in our system, and the real value might be sitting right in the middle of the program.

win3Della DoML 4/1

Della Do tops our ratings at 85.62 and goes off at 4/1 — giving her a slight overlay feel given how dominant the number is relative to most of this field. Trainer Ronnie P. Ward and jockey Juan P. Vargas team up, and Della Do's 33% career win rate is the highest of any horse in this race by a significant margin. An avg speed of 54 is reliable for a 6.5-furlong dirt sprint, and horses with that kind of win percentage in allowance company tend to fire fresh. She's our top play in what looks like a race she can control.

place1Tiffany TapML 9/2

Tiffany Tap is nearly dead even with Della Do on our numbers at 84.90, and the 9/2 morning line offers genuine value for a horse this close to the top. Shane Wilson trains and Harry Hernandez rides — a steady combination at this track — and her 14% career win rate in allowance company is respectable. She projects to be nearby throughout and is the logical place anchor if Della Do takes the lead.

show5Brisa VelozML 5/2

Brisa Veloz rates third in the field at 70.5 and carries a 5/2 morning line — which actually makes her the second choice on paper despite our numbers preferring the top two. Trainer Antonio Alberto and jockey Javier Antonio Hernandez keep her in the conversation, and a 9% career win rate paired with that rating makes her a solid show bet. Her avg speed of 53 fits the distance, and she's worth using in trifectas underneath the top pair.

Race 6

12:30 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

A full field of ten goes to the turf mile in this allowance, and the top two on our ratings are bunched so tightly it's a coin flip — but the morning lines diverge enough to create a genuine value opportunity.

win8Lassie My GirlML 3/1

Lassie My Girl carries a 87.08 TrackWiz rating — second only by a razor's margin to Nodah — and goes at 3/1, making her our top play on value grounds. Harry Hernandez takes the mount for trainer Melton Wilson, and her 20% career win rate is strong for an allowance turf field. An avg speed of 53 is consistent with the pace she'll likely encounter in a one-mile turf route, and the 8-post gives her room to find her spot without early traffic. The combination of a top rating and a respectable price is exactly what we look for.

place3NodahML 9/5

Nodah draws the 3-hole at 9/5 — the morning-line favorite — with a 86.82 rating that puts her within 0.26 points of our top pick. Trainer Benard Chatters has a 25% career win rate with this horse, one of the stronger records in the field, and Edward Santiago gets the call. She's likely to be near the front of wagering, but slotting her for place gives you insurance on what looks like a two-horse battle at the top.

show7Cincy's AnnaML 7/2

Cincy's Anna at 7/2 brings a career win rate of 38% — the highest in this entire race — and rates third at 65.49 in a competitive allowance turf field. Colby J. Hernandez handles the mount for trainer Sturges J. Ducoing, and her avg speed of 53 keeps her in pace contention throughout a one-mile route. Horses with win rates that high in allowance company tend to find their way into the money, making her a natural show hedge and trifecta element.

Race 7

12:57 AM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A ten-horse allowance dirt mile loaded with horses in the 65-75 range — but one horse rises well above the pack, and two double-digit longshots below him have career win percentages that suggest they belong.

win8Musical BandML 3/1

Musical Band commands this field with an 86.54 TrackWiz rating and goes at 3/1 — a fair price for the top-rated horse. Harry Hernandez pairs with trainer Shane Wilson, who also runs Westbrook in this race, showing comfort with the distance and conditions. Musical Band's avg speed of 52 is consistent with a one-mile dirt trip, and while the 7% career win rate is modest, the TrackWiz rating suggests recent form has been building toward a breakthrough. The gap between him and the next group is substantial enough to trust the number.

place2Louisiana WildlifeML 10/1

Louisiana Wildlife offers a genuine value angle at 10/1 with a 74.68 rating — third highest in the field — and a 26% career win rate that speaks to her ability to close the deal when fit. Trainer Antonio Alberto and Elio J. Barrera team up from the 2-hole, and an avg speed of 54 is actually the highest of our top three picks in this race. She's the kind of horse that often runs into the money at a price in allowance dirt routes, making her the best place bet on the ticket.

show1RunforjusticeML 12/1

Runforjustice posts a 73.96 rating and a 21% career win rate — strong credentials for a horse at 12/1 on the morning line. Trainer Richard L. Mocklin, Jr. puts Jansen Melancon up from the rail, and with that kind of win percentage historically, she knows how to finish. The gap between her rating and the next tier down is wide enough that she projects to be in the mix at the wire, making her a smart show play and trifecta filler at a generous price.

Race 8

1:24 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming dirt at six furlongs — zero career wins in the field, but the ratings spread is dramatic, and one horse stands well above the rest on our model while the morning-line favorite doesn't match up on numbers.

win9One Sure HitML 5/1

One Sure Hit rates at 84.17 — more than 14 points above the next horse in our rankings — and opens at 5/1, which looks like real value given how much he separates from this maiden field. Trainer Chadwick J. Mouton sends him out with Isaac Castillo from the 9-hole, an outside draw that avoids early traffic in a six-furlong sprint. An avg speed of 54 is competitive for the class level, and that kind of rating gap in a maiden claiming field is exactly the spot where our model tends to perform well. This is a horse to bet with confidence.

place4Dirty DealML 3/1

Dirty Deal is the morning-line second choice at 3/1 and rates second in our model at 70.07 — a solid figure for a maiden claimer. Trainer Isai V. Gonzalez puts Jose Luis Rodriguez up from the 4-post, which should give him a clean trip tracking the early pace. His avg speed of 53 matches up well for the sprint distance, and he's the natural pairing in exactas beneath One Sure Hit.

show3Minimus MaximusML 8/5

Minimus Maximus draws the 8/5 chalk on the morning line — the public favorite — yet rates third in our model at 65.68, behind both One Sure Hit and Dirty Deal. That's not a knock on the horse; a 65.68 is a decent number in maiden company, and trainer Ronnie P. Ward with Harry Hernandez up is a capable combination. She'll likely be overbet, but for show ticket purposes she's a reasonable hedge given the public money that will follow her.

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Bottom line: It's Been Real is our strongest free-play of the day, and the premium side of this card is loaded with value angles and pace-setup opportunities across both surfaces. If you want the full breakdown — pace projections, exotic tickets, and every contender rated — it's all waiting for subscribers. Check out our plans at TrackWiz Pricing and get in on the full card before post time. Good luck out there today.

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